2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[muon2]

The early voting results in Tennessee usually mean a lot, just FYI.

I think the TN DoS website is crashed, but before it did, I had the following results in the Governor's race:

Haslam 46,251   
Ramsey 23,294   
Wamp 20,273
Kirkpatrick 750   
Marceaux 236   

The AP results are lagging.

This is a new feature for the TN SoS. It looks like they didn't shake it down enough before the roll out.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Smith slightly ahead of Fleischmann in TN-03.

It would appear that the TN-05 thing was a mistake, as Cooper's up to a 90-10 lead in Davidson now.

[Sam Spade]

In early voting, Jim Tracy ran horribly outside his Senate district - I'm really inclined to say that Diane Black has it in the bag.  Still far too early - just a gut feeling.

[Brittain33]

A really old Dem State Senator (Douglas Henry, age 84, SD-21) is currently losing 51-49. And a Republican State House member (Eric Swafford, HD-25) is getting crushed 68-32. Anyone know what's going on with these two?

I just looked up that first race because the young guy is a FOAF (who would have no idea who I am) and it looks like it's just new energy and a more liberal issue base vs. someone who has been in office forever. The challenger is pro-choice, incumbent is pro-life.

[redcommander]

Fantastic new that Haslam has been declared the winner of the Republican primary.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Shelby County's crap-ass elections site says Cohen is beating Herenton 81-19.

[Rowan]

Sarah Palin's "Mama Grizzly" in TN-05 is in third place right now.

[Rowan]

GOP turnout in 2006 was about 320,000. Looks like we're going to smash that.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Smith maintaining a slim lead over Fleischmann in TN-03. DesJarlais still up in TN-04. Black up 33-30-29 over Tracy and Zelenik. Fincher still winning in TN-08.

[Meeker]

GOP turnout in 2006 was about 320,000. Looks like we're going to smash that.

Err, it's an open primary with nothing even remotely interesting on the Dem side outside of TN-09. My Obama-voting grandmother voted in the Republican primary.

[Rowan]

GOP turnout in 2006 was about 320,000. Looks like we're going to smash that.

Err, it's an open primary with nothing even remotely interesting on the Dem side outside of TN-09. My Obama-voting grandmother voted in the Republican primary.

Was there anything interesting on the DEM side in 2006?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Looks like the Swafford guy was one of the first adopters of the birther movement. His opponent is a generic conservative.

[Meeker]

Nevermind. There was the senate race that year. But still, this is impressive.

If you say so.

[Sam Spade]

In early voting, Jim Tracy ran horribly outside his Senate district - I'm really inclined to say that Diane Black has it in the bag.  Still far too early - just a gut feeling.

That prediction sucked for now - lol

otoh - I think it's pretty obvious Fincher will win.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Fleischmann is now less than 200 votes behind Smith. Unfortunately for him, it looks like the remaining areas are going to break for Smith. DesJarlais seems to be sitting on a comfortable 6-point lead. That Palin-backed candidate in TN-05 is doing pretty well in Davidson, but not enough to win. It's now Zelenik-Tracy-Black in TN-06. Edit: Black back in the lead. This is ridiculous.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Wow, Fleischmann somehow is pulling ahead. He's up by 500 votes now. TN-04 is tightening too, DesJarlaias is down to a 4-point lead. Black is up to 33-30 now in TN-06. Fincher got called the winner by the AP.

[cinyc]

Fleischmann is now less than 200 votes behind Smith. Unfortunately for him, it looks like the remaining areas are going to break for Smith. DesJarlais seems to be sitting on a comfortable 6-point lead. That Palin-backed candidate in TN-05 is doing pretty well in Davidson, but not enough to win. It's now Zelenik-Tracy-Black in TN-06. Edit: Black back in the lead. This is ridiculous.

Yeah, it looks like Hall is going to win in TN-05 with less than 30% of the vote.   Heck, it might even be less than 25%.   Will there be any runoffs?

[Torie]

More are voting in the GOP primary than the Dem primary in TN-5? It seems that folks are not interested in voting in Dem primaries when they have a choice, just about everywhere lately. What that portends remains to be seen I guess.

[Torie]

Smith maintaining a slim lead over Fleischmann in TN-03. DesJarlais still up in TN-04. Black up 33-30-29 over Tracy and Zelenik. Fincher still winning in TN-08.

Is there any reason for anyone to care who wins here?  Do the candidates have different political profiles?

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Smith maintaining a slim lead over Fleischmann in TN-03. DesJarlais still up in TN-04. Black up 33-30-29 over Tracy and Zelenik. Fincher still winning in TN-08.

Is there any reason for anyone to care who wins here?  Do the candidates have different political profiles?

Robin Smith is kind of a horrible person, so I'm rooting for her to lose.

[cinyc]

More are voting in the GOP primary than the Dem primary in TN-5? It seems that folks are not interested in voting in Dem primaries when they have a choice, just about everywhere lately. What that portends remains to be seen I guess.

The TN-5 Democratic primary doesn't seem like it was effectively contested.  The incumbent will win with 85+% of the vote.

[Torie]

More are voting in the GOP primary than the Dem primary in TN-5? It seems that folks are not interested in voting in Dem primaries when they have a choice, just about everywhere lately. What that portends remains to be seen I guess.

The TN-5 Democratic primary doesn't seem like it was effectively contested.  The incumbent will win with 85+% of the vote.

Yes, but there are other offices on the ballot, so unless you assume that it was the CD race that activated folks, is that relevant, and if so, by how much?  Maybe the Dems assume all of their statewide candidates will lose, so who cares though. Who knows?

[Sam Spade]

Fincher must have a real strong personal vote in Crockett County.

[Torie]

Smith maintaining a slim lead over Fleischmann in TN-03. DesJarlais still up in TN-04. Black up 33-30-29 over Tracy and Zelenik. Fincher still winning in TN-08.

Is there any reason for anyone to care who wins here?  Do the candidates have different political profiles?

Robin Smith is kind of a horrible person, so I'm rooting for her to lose.

Why do you think Robin is horrible? Does Robin remind you of Angle or something? Just asking, since I don't have a clue of course as to who these particular personages are.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

The only statewide office on the ballot this year is Governor, and the Dems are pretty much assured of being steamrolled. They also didn't even bother to try and hold TN-06. I'd say they're putting all their chips on holding TN-08 and protecting Davis in TN-04 (which shouldn't be too hard, considering his opposition).

Smith maintaining a slim lead over Fleischmann in TN-03. DesJarlais still up in TN-04. Black up 33-30-29 over Tracy and Zelenik. Fincher still winning in TN-08.

Is there any reason for anyone to care who wins here?  Do the candidates have different political profiles?

Robin Smith is kind of a horrible person, so I'm rooting for her to lose.

Why do you think Robin is horrible? Does Robin remind you of Angle or something? Just asking, since I don't have a clue of course as to who these particular personages are.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0709/25447.html

In other words, she's just a horrible, shrill partisan hack. I realize any Republican elected from a district like TN-03 will be a 100% party-line voter, but I'd rather them be a polite, faceless backbencher than an angry bomb-thrower.

Fincher must have a real strong personal vote in Crockett County.

He's from there (Frog Jump, as someone around here, I can't remember who, is so happy to point out).