2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Torie]

Am I missing anything?

Outside of it not mattering?

I don't like Tiahrt much, so yes, it matters to me! 

[Nym90]

Regarding MI-1, Benishek is from Iron County in the UP, while Allen is from the LP. That explains the results.

I never saw or heard a single Allen ad on radio or TV here in Marquette, while there were plenty of Benishek ads. Not sure if that was reversed in the Traverse City market or not, but I wouldn't be surprised.

[Torie]

Who are supposed to be the strongest candidates in the general for MI-1 in both parties?

[Sam Spade]

Regarding MI-1, Benishek is from Iron County in the UP, while Allen is from the LP. That explains the results.

I never saw or heard a single Allen ad on radio or TV here in Marquette, while there were plenty of Benishek ads. Not sure if that was reversed in the Traverse City market or not, but I wouldn't be surprised.

The results explain that difference - however, Benishek was much stronger in the UP than Allen was in the LP - otherwise Benishek wouldn't be close.  It is still too close to call.

[Torie]

Upton looks like he is going to win. Thanks heavens. It would be awful if he lost. He is an excellent congressperson. I wonder what was going on there. Is this another tea party thing?

[Nym90]

Benishek is the tea party candidate, probably helped him in the more rural parts of the LP also (I realize most folks would consider this entire district rural).

Given what's left to count, I doubt Allen can make up the difference of roughly 1,000 votes as it currently stands. The only really pro Allen area I see outstanding is Mackinac County, but Allen didn't win the larger Chippewa County by 1,000 votes, plus there seems to be some scattered UP precincts left.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

40% in and Hansen Clarke leads Carolyn Kilpatrick 50-37.

[Nym90]

Who are supposed to be the strongest candidates in the general for MI-1 in both parties?

The Dem primary was uncontested, nominee will be State Rep. Gary McDowell. He's a pro-life pro-gun Dem in the Stupak mold, a good fit ideologically and geographically for the district (he's from the eastern UP).

Allen is the establishment GOP candidate who didn't actually live in the district until recently, he lived in Traverse City (which was part of the old 1st pre-2000, but was drawn out), though his State Senate district encompasses a good portion of it. Benishek is the outsider tea party candidate who has never run for office before but is good at saying the buzzwords that the tea party folks want to hear. So who is more electable depends on your view of whether base turnout vs. appealing to swing voters matters more, no polling has been done for the general here that I know of.

[Torie]

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Sounds ominous. The GOP is trying hard not to take control of the House it seems.

[Sam Spade]

Benishek is the tea party candidate, probably helped him in the more rural parts of the LP also (I realize most folks would consider this entire district rural).

The tea party phenomenon is almost universally a GOP suburb phenomenon (it might have effect in historically GOP other (i.e. rural) areas but I haven't seen it), so I doubt that given the UP.

The latter observation (which I haven't observed so far) maybe explains why he did better in the LP than Allen did in the UP.  How's that for confusing.

[Sam Spade]

Heh, Tiahrt won Johnson County.  Still probably not enough - but note my last post yet again.

[Torie]

Heh, Tiahrt won Johnson County.  Still probably not enough - but note my last post yet again.

Color me confused. The top line in this race say Total   1781/3316, suggesting that about 1600 precincts are out, but when I look at the individual counties, I have trouble getting to 500 out, if that much. If it is that low, then Tiahrt may well win, since about 70 precincts are out in Sedgwick.

[Nym90]

Benishek is the tea party candidate, probably helped him in the more rural parts of the LP also (I realize most folks would consider this entire district rural).

The tea party phenomenon is almost universally a GOP suburb phenomenon (it might have effect in historically GOP areas but I haven't seen it), so I doubt that given the UP.

The latter observation (which I haven't observed so far) maybe explains why he did better in the LP than Allen did in the UP.  How's that for confusing.

Yeah a bit confusing. There really isn't anything in this district that would come anywhere close to being defined as a suburb. Traverse City and its environs aren't in the 1st, I guess some of the Bay City outlying areas could qualify, maybe, if you really stretch the definition.

But yeah, you are right in your assumption that the tea party hasn't really been that visible on the ground here, but that doesn't mean that they can't have fairly strong influence in a low turnout primary in as you say historically Dem areas where a lot of folks still vote in the Dem primary. Would have to compare turnout of D vs. R primaries in these areas to see if that theory holds any water.

Might just come down to as I mentioned the ad exposure that Benishek had here while Allen was invisible, a pretty big miscalculation on Allen's part. I know Benishek got some national publicity in conservative circles for getting into the race before Stupak dropped out, probably a big reason why an otherwise unknown candidate was able to fundraise as well as he did.

[Sam Spade]

Benishek is the tea party candidate, probably helped him in the more rural parts of the LP also (I realize most folks would consider this entire district rural).

The tea party phenomenon is almost universally a GOP suburb phenomenon (it might have effect in historically GOP areas but I haven't seen it), so I doubt that given the UP.

The latter observation (which I haven't observed so far) maybe explains why he did better in the LP than Allen did in the UP.  How's that for confusing.

Yeah a bit confusing. There really isn't anything in this district that would come anywhere close to being defined as a suburb. Traverse City and its environs aren't in the 1st, I guess some of the Bay City outlying areas could qualify, maybe, if you really stretch the definition.

But yeah, you are right in your assumption that the tea party hasn't really that visible on the ground here, but that doesn't mean that they can't have fairly strong influence in a low turnout primary in as you say historically Dem areas where a lot of folks still vote in the Dem primary. Would have to compare turnout of D vs. R primaries in these areas to see if that theory holds any water.

Might just come down to as I mentioned the ad exposure that Benishek had here while Allen was invisible, a pretty big miscalculation on Allen's part. I know Benishek got some national publicity in conservative circles for getting into the race before Stupak dropped out, probably a big reason why an otherwise unknown candidate was able to fundraise as well as he did.

In other words, "all politics is local".  I hate to beat it into the ground, but the tea party is not very important out in rural areas.  The primary results so far have made that rather obvious.

[Torie]

Well the top line precincts out number must be a typo or something. Sedgwick is all in, and Moran has a 3,000 vote lead. A few small counties are not in at all, and it may matter a lot where they are, since this race seem driven by geography to a substantial extent, which is not surprising between two competing congressmen.

[Sam Spade]

Oh, where are you, black precincts?

[Nym90]

Yep, very true Sam.

Though as I check the results again, Benishek is now all of 36 votes ahead with 28 precincts yet to be counted. Also not sure if absentees are included in the totals. Of course, the above analysis still stands, this race really shouldn't have been close considering the profiles of the two candidates.

[Sam Spade]

So, we have 28 precincts left and Benishek leads by 36 votes.  Let me see what's left.

Alpena (1) - Benishek +5% so far
Arenac (3) - Allen +3% so far
Bay (3) - Allen +3% so far
Charlevoix (1) - Allen +33% so far
Dickenson (7) - Benishek +54% so far
Iosco (4) - Benishek +14% so far
Mackinac (1) - Allen +3% so far
Presque Isle (3) - Allen +1% so far

Any guesses?

[Sam Spade]

So GOP turnout is going to be about twice that of Dem turnout in Missouri.  Just noting.

[Torie]

So, we have 28 precincts left and Benishek leads by 36 votes.  Let me see what's left.

Alpena (1) - Benishek +5% so far
Arenac (3) - Allen +3% so far
Bay (3) - Allen +3% so far
Charlevoix (1) - Allen +33% so far
Dickenson (7) - Benishek +54% so far
Iosco (4) - Benishek +14% so far
Mackinac (1) - Allen +3% so far
Presque Isle (3) - Allen +1% so far

Any guesses?

How many registered voters are in the precincts that are out? The tea party man would seem to have the edge, given Dickenson, but some precincts sometimes tend to be have a lot more voters than others. How many precincts are in, in Dickenson, and what is the raw total in the GOP primary? That may give a clue about the size of the uncounted precincts.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

The teabagger should have the edge based on that.

[Torie]

Sumner   0/42   

Sumner is just south of Wichita and in the T man's district. Just saying. Moran leads by 1,000 votes or so. Sumner in case you all are not aware of it, has the highest wheat production in the United States of any county, or did when I read this factlet about 20 years ago or whatever. It is wheat fields from county line to county line, with very little interruption.

[muon2]

Well the top line precincts out number must be a typo or something. Sedgwick is all in, and Moran has a 3,000 vote lead. A few small counties are not in at all, and it may matter a lot where they are, since this race seem driven by geography to a substantial extent, which is not surprising between two competing congressmen.

Most of the more populated counties that have yet to report are from western Kansas, besides Butler and Riley.

Sumner   0/42   

Sumner is just south of Wichita and in the T man's district. Just saying. Moran leads by 1,000 votes are so. Sumner in case you all are not aware of it, has the highest wheat production in the United States of any county, or did when I read this factlet about 20 years ago or whatever. It is wheat fields from county line to county line, with very little interruption.

Sumner and Butler should go for T, while Riley and Reno are out still for M. Similar populations, so it's hard to see who gets the better turnout at this stage.

[Torie]

The teabagger should have the edge based on that.

The Tea Party guy is up by about 400 now, with 4 precincts still out in Dickenson. It looks close to over now, absent arithmetic errors.

[Sam Spade]

Still too close to call in KS in my book.  There are some variations in the expected numbers that I've been observing that create my unwillingness.