2010 Primaries Thread (It's all over now, baby blue)

[Lunar]

The results are actually quite surprising in a number of areas (Deal strength in Atlanta suburbs, Handel strength in South Georgia), FYI.

So...your very important "rural, suburban, urban" model for this election might not be holding true?

[Tender Branson]

33% in:

Deal: 52%
Handel: 48%

http://sos.georgia.gov/elections/election_results/2010_0810/swfed.htm

[Tender Branson]

With 2% in:

Foley: 46%
Fedele: 34%
Griebel: 20%

Malloy: 56%
Lamont: 44%

[CatoMinor]

3.1% in

McMahon: 47.9

Simmons: 30.2

Schiff: 22.9%

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Caligiuri has a slight lead in CT-05.

[Barnes]

38% in:

Deal: 51%
Handel: 49%

[tpfkaw]

5.4 in:

McMahon: 47.6
Simmons: 29.1
Schiff: 23.2

Schiff is doing surprisingly well, presumably because of the "Liberal Linda" ad.

[Thomas D]

Only 8% of the vote is in from Fulton County. That's good news for Handel.

[Tender Branson]

54% in:

Deal: 50.9%
Handel: 49.1%

[CatoMinor]

6.6 in:

McMahon: 48.3
Simmons: 29
Schiff: 22.7

[Bacon King]

There's not really an urban/rural dynamic; in the first round Handel was "urban/suburban" and won the Atlanta area because of support in her political base of Fulton County plus extremely effective campaign concentration in the rest of the Atlanta media market. Deal was "rural" because his campaign focused on running up the vote in his own congressional district in the mostly rural north. Extrapolation from the votes then to the runoff now is very misleading. Also note, btw, Johnson won both "urban/suburban" and "rural" areas throughout the southern part of the state.

This election has many more dimensions at work.

[Tender Branson]

If these results hold and the race remains a tie, Insider Advantage had the best poll (46-46), followed by Landmark (44-42 Deal) and Mason Dixon (47-42 Handel).

[JohnnyLongtorso]

10% in and Malloy still leads 57-43. Foley still up 46-35. Pretty stable leads so far.

[Sam Spade]

The results are actually quite surprising in a number of areas (Deal strength in Atlanta suburbs, Handel strength in South Georgia), FYI.

So...your very important "rural, suburban, urban" model for this election might not be holding true?

No one's perfect.  There are a lot of oddities in this one actually - equalling amusing is how poorly Deal is running in a lot of his own CD.

[redcommander]

You would think a Palin endorsement would help more in Georgia. Handel should be in the lead not the homophobe Deal.

[xavier110]

You would think a Palin endorsement would help more in Georgia. Handel should be in the lead not the homophobe Deal.

Well...this is Georgia.

[Bacon King]

Handel's going to win this with about 54% percent it looks like.

[cinyc]

Not surprisingly, Simmons is winning his old CD.  McMahon is winning everywhere else:



I see no other real pattern in the results thus far.

[redcommander]

Not surprisingly, Simmons is winning his old CD.  McMahon is winning everywhere else:



I see no other real pattern in the results thus far.

Great the possibility of two crappy candidates as nominees tonight.

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

You would think a Palin endorsement would help more in Georgia. Handel should be in the lead not the homophobe Deal.

This is Huckabee territory more then Palin territory.

[cinyc]

There's a TV market disparity so far (which I'd expect, since McMahon was heavily advertising in NYC and the others weren't).  But it's too early to tell if it's significant.



There's also a major TV market disparity in the Republican Governor's race, with Griebel (who?) getting slaughtered in the NYC market.

NYC Market=Fairfield County.  Hartford-New Haven=Rest of State

[cinyc]

FWIW, a crappy last-minute model that I only had time to create for the CT Dem Gov race has Malloy winning it 52.6-47.4. 

We'll see if that works.  I doubt it.

[Verily]

There's a TV market disparity so far (which I'd expect, since McMahon was heavily advertising in NYC and the others weren't).  But it's too early to tell if it's significant.



There's also a major TV market disparity in the Republican Governor's race, with Griebel (who?) getting slaughtered in the NYC market.

NYC Market=Fairfield County.  Hartford-New Haven=Rest of State

That this is significant seems to be disproved by the CD data, since McMahon is doing equally well in every CD except Simmons'. It just so happens that Simmons' CD is in the Hartford-New Haven market.

[Barnes]

67% in:

Deal: 51%
Handel: 49%

[Bacon King]

For the record, Handel went out of her way to be as much of a homophobe as Deal in the campaign, mostly to mitigate the damage her old pro-gay positions would have caused.  

Also, while endorsements are usually overrated, Palin did help her win a bunch of former Ox supporters who were abandoning his sinking ship before the first round.