UK Local Elections 2022

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

What happend in Tower Hamlet ? the borough seems to be only around 30 percent Bengali but Aspire seems to have won a majority.

[omar04]

What happend in Tower Hamlet ? the borough seems to be only around 30 percent Bengali but Aspire seems to have won a majority.

From what I understand he had a degree of goodwill among the residents for his policy agendas (for example university scholarships) and ran again promising to tackle COL issues. Labour also apparently hasn't run the council too well and sort of took their victory for granted.

[JimJamUK]

What happend in Tower Hamlet ? the borough seems to be only around 30 percent Bengali but Aspire seems to have won a majority.

Aspire only needed 37% of the vote to get a majority of seats. The Bengali population may only be about 1/3 of the borough, but it has very high turnout in the right circumstances (Tower Hamlets had the highlight turnout in the 2014 mayoral election concurrent EU elections in London, when on paper it should have had one of the lowest). Rahman may also have some sympathy in other Muslim communities (but I certainly can’t see him getting any of the white vote, especially in Canary Wharf).

[Blair]

Is there a lack of coverage about seats and councils flipping in the south because the media think that it’s insignificant in the number of seats that will change in a GE, or is it largely just ‘mud red wall’?

I’ve just re-looked at them and they’re very bad- especially in Somerset.

[Blair]

In funny news a newly elected Hartlepool councillor has resigned 24 hours after being elected because of an assault allegation.

[JimJamUK]

Just looking at the individual Welsh council results and, uh, some Labour councils seem more popular than others (and given they were last up in 2017 and not 2018, holding or even losing seats in this environment is pretty remarkable).

[Tintrlvr]

What happend in Tower Hamlet ? the borough seems to be only around 30 percent Bengali but Aspire seems to have won a majority.

Aspire only needed 37% of the vote to get a majority of seats. The Bengali population may only be about 1/3 of the borough, but it has very high turnout in the right circumstances (Tower Hamlets had the highlight turnout in the 2014 mayoral election concurrent EU elections in London, when on paper it should have had one of the lowest). Rahman may also have some sympathy in other Muslim communities (but I certainly can’t see him getting any of the white vote, especially in Canary Wharf).

Getting 0% in Canary Wharf certainly helps with the percentage needed to win a majority of seats!

Anyway, has Croydon really still not reported council results? The BBC website still has it as undetermined.

I regret to inform everyone that this is now the line.

I look forward to Tory MPs who live in London and will do forever, telling everyone over the next few days that it doesn’t actually matter and it’s not the ‘real country.’

The line is already forming that winning in London is irrelevant and that Labour aren’t doing well enough outside or at least should be better.

This is made especially funny by the fact that literally the only two objectively good Conservative performances in the country* were both in London!

_{*At least that I can find: Harrow and Croydon. I suppose, being generous, you could make a case for Oldham as a half, which would take us to two and a half.}

The Tories gained one seat in Oldham (while LDs also gained 1, and independents gained 3)! If that's even half of a "good" result, yikes.

[CumbrianLefty]

Croydon is still counting its council results, yes.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Just looking at the individual Welsh council results and, uh, some Labour councils seem more popular than others (and given they were last up in 2017 and not 2018, holding or even losing seats in this environment is pretty remarkable).

There can often be competition between different bits of the larger Welsh unitaries, which can cause difficulties when there's a perception that the political leadership mostly come from and favour one particular part. Which often results in weird and screwy local election results - there's usually at least one that does something totally against whatever the wider pattern is. Essentially they're another example of local authorities that are at once too large and too small: the geography of Wales (the most 'rural' and non-metropolitan region of Great Britain it should not be forgotten) strongly suggests that a two-tier system comprised of a small number of very large regional authorities and actually quite small districts (more along the size of the pre-1974 districts in most places) would be the correct local government model.

[MaxQue]

What happend in Tower Hamlet ? the borough seems to be only around 30 percent Bengali but Aspire seems to have won a majority.

Aspire only needed 37% of the vote to get a majority of seats. The Bengali population may only be about 1/3 of the borough, but it has very high turnout in the right circumstances (Tower Hamlets had the highlight turnout in the 2014 mayoral election concurrent EU elections in London, when on paper it should have had one of the lowest). Rahman may also have some sympathy in other Muslim communities (but I certainly can’t see him getting any of the white vote, especially in Canary Wharf).

Getting 0% in Canary Wharf certainly helps with the percentage needed to win a majority of seats!

Anyway, has Croydon really still not reported council results? The BBC website still has it as undetermined.

I regret to inform everyone that this is now the line.

I look forward to Tory MPs who live in London and will do forever, telling everyone over the next few days that it doesn’t actually matter and it’s not the ‘real country.’

The line is already forming that winning in London is irrelevant and that Labour aren’t doing well enough outside or at least should be better.

This is made especially funny by the fact that literally the only two objectively good Conservative performances in the country* were both in London!

_{*At least that I can find: Harrow and Croydon. I suppose, being generous, you could make a case for Oldham as a half, which would take us to two and a half.}

The Tories gained one seat in Oldham (while LDs also gained 1, and independents gained 3)! If that's even half of a "good" result, yikes.

Croydon wierdly planned for counting Mayor Friday afternoon and evening and the council after that and on Saturday. Mayor took way longer that planned and the council count was spilt between Saturday and Sunday, with a change to a smaller venue that can count less wards at the same time for today as the venue they used the other days was already booked.

[CumbrianLefty]

In funny news a newly elected Hartlepool councillor has resigned 24 hours after being elected because of an assault allegation.

You did the mainstream media thing of forgetting to mention they were Tory

[Alcibiades]

Is there a lack of coverage about seats and councils flipping in the south because the media think that it’s insignificant in the number of seats that will change in a GE, or is it largely just ‘mud red wall’?

I’ve just re-looked at them and they’re very bad- especially in Somerset.

I really think the Tories could be in for a very nasty shock courtesy of the Lib Dems at the next general election in the Home Counties and, as you say, possibly even the old Southwestern Liberal strongholds. I think many Conservatives are kind of assuming that the strong Lib Dem performance in the former in 2019 was a Brexit fluke, but that Brexit has killed them off for good in the latter. A potentially hugely dangerous complacency…

That’s without even getting into Labour gains in Worthing etc.

[Oryxslayer]

Is there a lack of coverage about seats and councils flipping in the south because the media think that it’s insignificant in the number of seats that will change in a GE, or is it largely just ‘mud red wall’?

I’ve just re-looked at them and they’re very bad- especially in Somerset.

I really think the Tories could be in for a very nasty shock courtesy of the Lib Dems at the next general election in the Home Counties and, as you say, possibly even the old Southwestern Liberal strongholds. I think many Conservatives are kind of assuming that the strong Lib Dem performance in the former in 2019 was a Brexit fluke, but that Brexit has killed them off for good in the latter. A potentially hugely dangerous complacency…

That’s without even getting into Labour gains in Worthing etc.

There also I think is a idea that Labour not getting a majority is a failure for them. This of course stems from the fact that the Tories need a majority or close enough to one to actually form a government now, since everyone else is against them. This is what we saw after 2017.

However, the SNP lock on Scotland means that Labour winning 326 seats is effectively a landslide result. Labour could form a government with 260 seats: either with the backing of the Lib-Dems, the SNP, or both - and likely through supply agreements not formal partnerships. Obviously this depends  upon the state of the other parties, but Lib-Dem gains in the south - they lost many a seat by a small margin in 2019 - harm the Tories to an equal extent as a flip in Bolton or Dudley to Labour.

This doesn't appear to be internalized by the Conservative high command, based on their spin doctors who went on BBC during the count. But it is by the data junkies here and on twitter.

[Tintrlvr]

Is there a lack of coverage about seats and councils flipping in the south because the media think that it’s insignificant in the number of seats that will change in a GE, or is it largely just ‘mud red wall’?

I’ve just re-looked at them and they’re very bad- especially in Somerset.

I really think the Tories could be in for a very nasty shock courtesy of the Lib Dems at the next general election in the Home Counties and, as you say, possibly even the old Southwestern Liberal strongholds. I think many Conservatives are kind of assuming that the strong Lib Dem performance in the former in 2019 was a Brexit fluke, but that Brexit has killed them off for good in the latter. A potentially hugely dangerous complacency…

That’s without even getting into Labour gains in Worthing etc.

The Tiverton by-election will certainly be interesting this way, especially as it will probably be on the same day as Wakefield and the latter will get the majority of the press attention beforehand even though the result feels almost predestined at this point.

[DL]

The only possible way the Tories stay in power after the next election is if it’s either a Tory majority or if the Tories plus the DUP have a majority and both look extremely unlikely right nkw

[Oryxslayer]

Can finally complete the new London map. This shows the councilors elected, so in the event of a divided ward the dot shows the minority party, or the second place party in the event of a 2-MMD  council seat. Data comes from the @ElectionMapsUK handle and their Google spreadsheet. Colors should be self-explanatory, but the nonobvious ones are: Purple for Localists, grey for Independents, White (if in a seat) delayed Post-election Vacancy seats.



Compared to those elected in 2014, the central, western, and northeastern Conservatives got carved up by their various oppositions. The southeastern and northwestern strongholds still stand strong. Lib-Dems had a very good night in their neck of the woods.

[vileplume]

Is there a lack of coverage about seats and councils flipping in the south because the media think that it’s insignificant in the number of seats that will change in a GE, or is it largely just ‘mud red wall’?

I’ve just re-looked at them and they’re very bad- especially in Somerset.

I really think the Tories could be in for a very nasty shock courtesy of the Lib Dems at the next general election in the Home Counties and, as you say, possibly even the old Southwestern Liberal strongholds. I think many Conservatives are kind of assuming that the strong Lib Dem performance in the former in 2019 was a Brexit fluke, but that Brexit has killed them off for good in the latter. A potentially hugely dangerous complacency…

That’s without even getting into Labour gains in Worthing etc.

Definitely true. The Tories were very lucky Corbyn was Labour leader last time as the threat of him becoming PM convinced most Tory-LD swing voters to reluctantly vote for the former to stop him. This is unlikely to be the case next time unless somehow Starmer falls over 'Beergate' and is replaced by someone from the left. How exposed to the Tories actually are to the LDs in the South in a General Election context is a very interesting question that I don't think any of us know the answer to. I will say though that Theresa May should be fine in Maidenhead as long as she wants it as the type of voter that is likely to shift from Tory to Lib Dem nationally (very prevalent in her constituency) is also the type that really likes/respects/sympathises with her.

I wouldn't read too much into Worthing specifically though, the demographics there are shifting swiftly towards Labour (the Brighton effect) and so a Labour gain is those seats is inevitable at some point in the future regardless of who are the Party leaders and the stances they take. This is similar to how a Tory gain somewhere like NE Derbyshire was always going to happen regardless of Brexit, due to the politics and demographics of the area is simply shifting in a way that heavily favours the right.

[DL]

Can finally complete the new London map. This shows the councilors elected, so in the event of a divided ward the dot shows the minority party, or the second place party in the event of a 2-MMD  council seat. Data comes from the @ElectionMapsUK handle and their Google spreadsheet. Colors should be self-explanatory, but the nonobvious ones are: Purple for Localists, grey for Independents, White (if in a seat) delayed Post-election Vacancy seats.



Compared to those elected in 2014, the central, western, and northeastern Conservatives got carved up by their various oppositions. The southeastern and northwestern strongholds still stand strong. Lib-Dems had a very good night in their neck of the woods.

What is the explanation for why the LibDems do so well in that cluster of wards and boroughs in the southwest of London? is there anything unique about the demographics of the kinds of people who live in southwest London that makes them amenable to voting LibDem that is not present anywhere else?

[King of Kensington]

I've long wondered this too.  I think it's very middle class and very "white English."  Why the aversion to Tories there?

[Blair]

I've long wondered this too.  I think it's very middle class and very "white English."  Why the aversion to Tories there?

To put it crudely it’s because of their values; Brexit and the aftermath of it has basically hollowed out the Conservative vote completely.

Its middle class but it’s still largely managerial and public sector jobs (GPS, head teachers, mid to high ranking civil servants) rather than the obscenely wealthy you see in other parts of London.

[Duke of York]

https://www.varsity.co.uk/news/23671

Cambridge student wins seat on City Council

Second-year student Sam Carling was elected as one of two Labour councillors in the West Chesterton ward

[Tintrlvr]

I've long wondered this too.  I think it's very middle class and very "white English."  Why the aversion to Tories there?

To put it crudely it’s because of their values; Brexit and the aftermath of it has basically hollowed out the Conservative vote completely.

Its middle class but it’s still largely managerial and public sector jobs (GPS, head teachers, mid to high ranking civil servants) rather than the obscenely wealthy you see in other parts of London.

"Brexit" is too simple an explanation; this area has been strong for the Lib Dems and their predecessors for 30+ years (the SDP-Liberal Alliance first won control of Richmond council in 1986, e.g., and the Lib Dems first won control of Kingston council in 1994).

The description of the area as more managerial and public sector isn't wrong, though. The Southwest is just where the wealthy intelligentsia of London have gathered for a very long time. There are of course plenty of other wealthy pockets of London, but the bankers and heirs of Chelsea or the small-business-owners of Bromley vote quite differently from the lawyers and professors of Richmond.

This pattern can be observed more or less universally in wealthy democracies; even in the US where the Republicans are quite weak in cities generally, wealthy urban voters who are higher on the education spectrum are clearly distinct from those that have only college degrees or (of course) no college education.

[DL]

Another explanation I once heard for the LibDem strength in SW London is that the LibDems have a historic base of support in the south west of England (i.e. Devon and Cornwall) and that when people from southwest England migrate to London they often settle in SW London and bring their political DNA with them. not sure if there is any truth to that or if that is a fanciful theory.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I guess that part of london is filled with people who too well-off to vote labour but too embarrassed to vote Tory.

[CumbrianLefty]

Labour used to be capable of winning a significant number of seats in both Sutton and Kingston but in recent years the LibDem machine has pretty much taken over their previous strong areas.

(Richmond has had the most complete and longest lasting yellow hegemony, Labour being eliminated from the council in the late 1970s and only winning a handful of wards since in 1994/98)