For a DC case he has like a 30% chance of getting Trumper on the jury so weigh that against your chances with the judge.
Way more than that, he has a 48.63% chance to get it. 0.946^12=0.5137
Technically this isn't correct because Washington D.C uses voir dire. In this case, unlike in most states in D.C, the judge asks questions to potential jurors based on a list submitted by both the prosecutor and the defense. Based on the answers, the judge can refuse to accept a juror.
So, you can go on from there in terms of the importance of any potential judge if this case goes ahead.
The significant thing from a mathematical perspective though, is that this means the jurors aren't entirely random, so probability formulas don't apply.
So this would increase the chance the defense asks for a bench trial right. Also btw a jury almost certainly would be sequestered here so one juror holding out would also have to be willing to spend weeks more in sequestration to force a hung jury.
I think the defense would determine based on the judge appointed to the case. While obviously a judge sympathetic to the prosecution wouldn't allow the question 'did you vote for Donald Trump?' there certainly are ways a smart prosecutor could ask an acceptable question that would more or less determine that.
On the mathematical point, there are people who know this much better than me here, but this is the basic concept:
Fom wiki:
Independence is a fundamental notion in probability theory, as in statistics and the theory of stochastic processes. Two events are independent, statistically independent, or stochastically independent[1] if, informally speaking, the occurrence of one does not affect the probability of occurrence of the other or, equivalently, does not affect the odds.
So, since the jurors aren't strictly randomly chosen, there is no independence.
There are probably people here who could roughly calculate the odds given a judge who favors the prosecution versus a judge who favors the defense.
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