COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[emailking]

Social distancing will not lower the IFR. 

I thought viral load played a significant factor in mortality. You're less likely to get infected with a big load if your're trying to distance.

[emailking]

5/6 (Today):

• Cases: 1,263,092 (+26,105 | Δ Change: ↑8.09% | Σ Increase: ↑2.11%)
• Deaths: 74,799 (+2,558 | Δ Change: ↑10.26% | Σ Increase: ↑3.54%)

Cases seems to have decreased in the last week. Deaths continue to be just as bad.

[emailking]

Social distancing assumes that, at some point or another, you will eventually come into contact with a high enough concentration of the virus to get infected.  The only thing that varies is the timing. 

No I don't think that's right. Suppose a kid is asymptomatic and visits his grandma. If they try to stay 6 feet apart she'll probably get a smaller load than if they hug and kiss when they meet/leave. This affects her mortality. After that, if she survives she's immune. It doesn't matter how many other infected people she comes into contact with at that point.

[emailking]

So....

Does anyone else think we've massively misplayed this.

No, I don't think meat packers tend to be that elderly. Maybe I'm wrong on that.

[emailking]

Have you seen the stock market lately? its up on the year. Its pushing new highs again.

The Dow started the year around 28,500. The high was around 29,500. Right now it's 24,300. So it needs to gain 4,000 points before it will be up on the year, and 5,000 points before it will be pushing new highs.

[emailking]

It’s also a reason for us to have a strictly enforced lockdown for a shorter period of time, as opposed to a mild-lockdown which requires months to have an impact and ironically exposes more people to the virus.

Are you saying are mild lockdowns expose more people than if we hadn't done anything?

[emailking]

But is he saying we should strive for herd immunity or that herd immunity is inevitable?

[emailking]

Madison has free drive through testing for everyone who comes in. I went in a couple of hours ago. The COVID-19 test SUCKS. My nose still feels violated.

Yeah it sucks

Does it hurt or just feel weird?

[emailking]

Haven't really researched it tbh, but is there any actual proof that the virus is significantly reduced in warm weather? I mean, the thing is spreading just fine in Brazil, Ecuador and Peru for instance.

UV light is bad for it so there's probably a correlation there. But the thing spreads just fine indoors where the temperature is typically between 70 & 80 no matter where in the world you are, unless it's a very poor area.

[emailking]

California Mayor is apparently trying to push the stay at home order through July (which isn't going to be necessary due to the case trend). Hopefully he realizes what that means and he will come back to reality, but expect riots if he doesn't.

I highly doubt there will be riots for that. I think most people have been expecting long lockdowns for a while now.

[emailking]

Ok well regardless I don't think there will be riots, even though in previous threads I said I didn't think people would tolerate lockdowns lasting that long.

[emailking]

There is no "W" here. No matter how many tests are done, the continued loss of life is tragic and a huge loss, for everyone.

[emailking]

I looked at it. I hate reddit. The layout of the site is horrible.

[emailking]

I cut my own hair so that hasn't been a problem for me.

[emailking]

Who cares? Life has risks. Do you make a graph for every other possible illness you might get before leaving your house? This remains all so ridiculous.

I do. It's an interesting scientific result. No I don't.

[emailking]

I'm very encouraged to start seeing a semblance of normality resume in the Jackson suburbs.  Crowded streets/shops, restaurants seem relatively busy (still at 50% though), and less people choosing to wear face masks.

Meanwhile, King Emperor Chokwe A. Lumumba has decided that restaurants/gyms in the City of Jackson can go ahead and reopen tomorrow, but he's implementing a new citywide curfew as well as a mask mandate to go into effect over the weekend.  If he believes this to be the right course of action, where were these mandates 2-4 weeks ago?  In a press conference announcing the end of the city's SAHO, he said he was only allowing reopening so the city wouldn't become an "island".  So the mayor is opening the city while simultaneously chastising the Republican suburbs for doing the same; a nakedly cowardly move to have his political cake and eat it too.  His motivations appear misplaced.

Moreover, I've been increasingly discouraged by the continuing/escalation of rhetoric (mostly on local social media, but also parroted in the media) that any relaxation of social distancing or a personal decision by individuals to not wear PPE is "going to kill grandma" or whatever.  That was never the point of social distancing.  The point was never to stop new cases, but to prevent the healthcare system from being overwhelmed (which now seems like an extinct possibility).  Under both curves, grandma still probably gets COVID-19 and may die.  The hospital system is as ready as its ever going to be, so for that reason it's time to end the lockdown.

The point of the lockdowns was to prevent the medical care system from being overwhelmed. The point of social distancing is the prevent infections and save lives.

So fine, end the forced lockdowns, but please stay home anyway as much as possible, wear masks, and maintain 6 feet. 😳

[emailking]

I don't see how anyone can listen to Trump's remarks and walk away thinking he wants to do less testing; it's even pretty obvious he's taking a jab at the media when he says "they don't wanna write that".  "That" being when you do more tests you identify more cases.

I've seen MSNBC report many times now that if you do more tests you find more cases.

20,000 cases is still 20,000 cases even if you can make an argument (unproven) that there are fewer new infections now than the last time a week ago when 20,000 cases were found.

[emailking]

If the test positivity rate is dramatically lower, tha would suggest there are fewer new infections. 

If it's random testing I agree with that, but from what I understand it's mostly not random.

[emailking]

So you ram through a House bill that garners 14 Dem No’s and which you know is DOA in the senate for what reason?

So they can pass their own bill that then goes to Conference with the House Bill such that a compromise bill that will pass both Houses can be hashed out.

[emailking]

Hope Bandit3's not a Disney fan. 😷

[emailking]

WHO says there's 'no evidence' recovered coronavirus patients won't get reinfected

This WHO statement from weeks ago has been thoroughly discredited, as has every other early panicked headline about reinfection.

Every real shred of evidence (including the Science article posted in this thread earlier today) overwhelmingly supports practically universal immunity.

As of course, does the basic fact that we have 4.5 million confirmed infections and zero confirmed examples of reinfection; imagine what we’d say if a vaccine trial revealed zero infections among the first 4.5 million trials.

5 USS Roosevelt Sailors Test Positive For COVID-19, Again

The U.S. Navy says five sailors from the USS Theodore Roosevelt who had apparently recovered from the coronavirus and had received negative test results have now tested positive for a second time.

In a statement, the Navy said the sailors had "met rigorous recovery criteria, exceeding CDC guidelines," including testing negative for the virus at least twice, but have now retested positive. The statement said the sailors had been monitoring their health and adhered to social-distancing protocols while on board the Roosevelt, which has been docked in Guam following an outbreak infecting hundreds of crew members.

You were saying? (When you weren't ignoring the potential threat to children from the suggestion in your own earlier post.)

Are they sick though? There are people haven't had symptoms for months but keep testing positive.

[emailking]

I thought the conclusion was that instead of being reinfected, some people just felt better and had a low enough viral load where they'd get a false negative back.

Which may very well be the case. (And I sincerely hope it is the case!) But these were people the Navy found to both definitively test negative and be well enough to be back on duty. Whether they were re-infected or had a relapse is beside the point. Either way, it runs contrary to the eagerly overconfident rush by amateurs to "you had it and tested negative, now you're 100% immune!"

Fair enough.

[emailking]

That second image looks like something out of '28 Days/Weeks Later.'

I'm rewatching them on my June vacation. I'm still keeping hope we'll get 28 Months Later, someday!

[emailking]

https://twitter.com/cherylbolen/status/1262479713030803458

Has he tested positive and is concealing it?

 I don't see any way that a White House doctor would prescribe him this for no reason at all.

He said he asked the White House doctor if he could take it and the doctor said he could take it if he wanted to.

[emailking]

I had really weird dreams when I took it. Maybe this all one of my hydroxychloroquine dreams I've been stuck in for nine years.

You can read, so you're good. 👍