UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

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Jared O'Mara to resign as Sheffield Hallam MP

By far the best thing that he's done for his constituents & the Labour Party. I imagine this'll go back to being a Lib Dem seat, though I wonder who they might put up? I doubt Clegg will wanna come back, now that he's only recently started at Facebook, not to mention the fact that he lost it in the first place.

Already being discussed on the by-election thread.  The Lib Dems have a prospective candidate, and it isn't Nick Clegg.

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Composition of the Commons after Brecon & Radnorshire

Con 310 (+1 deputy speaker)
Lan 245 (+2 deputy speakers)
SNP 35
LD 13
DUP 10
Sinn Féin 7
TIG 5
"The Independents" 5
Plaid 4
Green 1
Speaker 1
other Independents 11

Con + DUP 320
Lab + LD + SNP + Plaid + Green + TIG + "The Independents" 308
other Independents 11

This gives a nominal working majority for Con + DUP of 1, but note that one of those other Independents is Charlie Elphicke, who is suspended from the Tory whip but likely to vote with the Government.  They also include Frank Field, who is apparently making a statement later today, Ian Austin, who has been voting a lot with the Government recently, and Jared O'Mara, who has probably voted in the Commons for the last time.  So the Government is probably a little more secure than that majority of 1 suggests.


"The Independents" are Heidi Allen, Luciana Berger, Gavin Shuker, Angela Smith and John Woodcock.

The other Independents are

Ian Austin - ex-Labour
Nick Boles - ex-Tory
Charlie Elphicke - suspended Tory
Frank Field - ex-Labour
Sylvia Hermon - ex-UUP but elected as Independent
Kelvin Hopkins - suspended Labour
Ivan Lewis - ex-Labour
Stephen Lloyd - ex-Lib Dem
Jared O'Mara - ex-Labour
Chris Williamson - suspended Labour
Sarah Wollaston - ex-Tory via TIG

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Field's announcement is that he is forming a new party, the "Birkenhead Social Justice Party", and will stand in the next election under this label.

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Field's announcement is that he is forming a new party, the "Birkenhead Social Justice Party", and will stand in the next election under this label.

Slightly underwhelming announcement given the speculation that preceded it.

In particular the Brexit Party seemed to have real hopes that he might become one of theirs.

... or at least their media cheerleaders did.  I'm a little bit suspicious that F*r*g* doesn't want high profile defections after his experience with Douglas Carswell.

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https://twitter.com/nicholaswatt/status/1168895536709230592?s=20

https://twitter.com/bbclaurak/status/1168896357836492801?s=20

They still have a working majority (of 1) if you count Charlie Elphicke, who has had the Tory whip suspended but will generally vote with the Government.  If they're really going to throw out everyone who votes against them tonight, the majority really will be gone.

My MP Jared O'Mara was expected to resign today, which would have moved it back to 0 excluding Elphicke or 2 including him, but apparently he has "postponed" this.

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Tory Ayes (21):

Guto Bebb
Richard Benyon
Steve Brine
Alistair Burt
Greg Clark
Ken Clarke
David Gauke
Justine Greening
Dominic Grieve
Sam Gyimah
Philip Hammond
Stephen Hammond
Richard Harrington
Margot James
Oliver Letwin
Anne Milton
Caroline Nokes
Antoinette Sandbach
Nicholas Soames
Rory Stewart
Ed Vaizey

I can't help thinking there's more substance there than in what'll be left of the parliamentary Tory party if they have the whip withdrawn as rumoured.  (Insert joke about Soames here.)

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Non-Tory/DUP Noes:

Kate Hoey (Lab)
John Mann (Lab)
Ian Austin (Ind, ex-Lab)
Charlie Elphicke (Ind, suspended Con)
Ivan Lewis (Ind, ex-Lab)

Four Independents didn't vote: Hopkins, O'Mara, Williamson, Woodcock.  Neither did two Labour MPs: Kevin Barron and Derek Twigg.  Of course there may be good reasons for these other than intentional abstentions.  EDIT: there were in Twigg's case.

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Apparently Leadsom says the whip won't be withdrawn now, but perhaps it will be if they vote against the government again tomorrow.

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https://www.parliament.uk/mps-lords-and-offices/mps/current-state-of-the-parties/ has now been updated.  Note that this counts the Deputy Speakers as members of their parties when they don't vote, so in terms of practical Commons arithmetic there are 288 Tories and 245 Labour.

The 36 Independents are made up of:
- 21 ex-Tories who lost the whip yesterday
- 5 MPs, four ex-Labour and one ex-Tory, who form "The Independents" (which is only a group, not a party, not to be confused with "The Independent Group for Change", which is a party).
- Nick Boles, ex-Tory who resigned the whip earlier in the year
- Frank Field, ex-Labour who recently announced that he intended to contest the next election for the "Birkenhead Social Justice Party"
- Ian Austin, ex-Labour who votes with the Government on Brexit
- Ivan Lewis, ex-Labour who also now tends to vote with the Government on Brexit
- Stephen Lloyd, ex-Lib Dem
- Chris Williamson and Kelvin Hopkins, suspended Labour MPs
- Charlie Elphicke, suspended Tory MP
- Sylvia Hermon, former UUP MP for North Down who won in 2010, 2015 and 2017 as an Independent
- Jared O'Mara, ex-Labour who was going to resign but seems to have changed his mind but still didn't vote yesterday

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Was kicking out 21 members of your party on the same day you lost your working majority the... um... right strategy here?

I imagine the idea is that once an election has been forced they will be replaced in their mostly safe Tory constituencies with True Believers who will do Johnson's bidding.  It might not be as simple as that, but I don't feel very confident that Johnson with most of the media behind him and a divided opposition can't win.

I think the Lib Dems ought to consider standing aside if they choose to run as independents, partly to encourage them to do so.  Labour standing aside is less likely to be helpful and might actually be counterproductive in most of these constituencies, as well as more controversial.

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Luciana Berger, MP for Liverpool Wavertree, ex-Labour, then Change UK, most recently one of "The Independents", has joined the Lib Dems.

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Amber Rudd has resigned from Cabinet and also resigned the Tory whip.

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... and in less surprising defection news Angela Smith, MP for Penistone & Stocksbridge, formerly of Labour, then of Change UK, more recently one of "The Independents", has joined the Lib Dems.

I think this makes the composition of the House

Con 287 (+1 deputy speaker)
Lab 245 (+2 deputy speakers)
SNP 35
Lib Dem 17
DUP 10
Sinn Féin 7
The Independent Group for Change 5
Plaid 4
Green 1
Speaker 1
Independent 35

(Independent here includes "The Independents", now down to 3, and Frank Field, as I'm not sure what the status of his new party is.)

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Is there a constituency-by-party map somewhere being updated daily on a regular basis?

@ElectionMapsUK posts one on Twitter from time to time.  E.g.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1169553595420876802
but that's from before today's two, so Hastings & Rye should now be grey and Penistone & Stocksbridge gold.

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The vote to "abolish Watson" has been pulled - there will be an examination of the DL position (*) as part of a more general review aimed at "strengthening party democracy".

(*worth remembering here that the post - as we know it, at least - was created as a sop to the almost overweening vanity of Herbert Morrison, and there has for as long as I can remember been a section of opinion in the party who would like to see it scrapped)

Well, at least it was pulled, but again this incident suggests that too many people in the Labour Party, including those in key positions, are way too interested in internal factional vendettas and the like.  And for someone who wants the vile group of people currently passing as a government out, this is incredibly frustrating.

I do realise that you need two sides for a factional war and that the right wing of the Labour Party is not exactly innocent in all this, and Watson isn't really my cup of tea, though I think he's right on Brexit.  But why Lansman thought it was sensible to try this on at this time and why some more people apparently supported him really beats me.

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So why does the opposition not want an election? They are that confident they would lose?

Because a dissolution now would remove parliamentary scrutiny between now and 31 October, potentially (if Johnson can find a loophole in the Benn act, or if he tries to get away with ignoring it) allowing a no deal Brexit just before the election.

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Please explain how it is "obvious" given that a significant number of Labour MPs would be likely to oppose them?

If Corbyn agreed to support them (which I think was the premise)?  In those circumstances would any Labour MPs oppose other than Hoey and perhaps Stringer?