UK General Discussion: 2019. Blackadder goes Brexit.

[CumbrianLefty]

if they win the election they will still have time to call for an extension.

Except they won't. It's logistically and legally impossible to hold an election and have the new parliament convene before Oct 31.

Though in this case the new PM (if there is one) would call for an extension, not parliament?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

I have full confidence in leadership abilities of Jacon Rees Mogg to get the goverment's agenda through the House.

[YL]

Amber Rudd has resigned from Cabinet and also resigned the Tory whip.

[Lumine]

Wow. Didn't expect Rudd to actually do something.

The government is going to become more and more powerless in the House.

(It seems she'll also be running again as an independent, though victory is impossible for her)

[Silent Hunter]

Which makes the Government majority -43...

John Mann has announced he will not seek re-election as an MP due to his opposition to Corbyn.

[Joe Republic]

Is there a constituency-by-party map somewhere being updated daily on a regular basis?

[YL]

... and in less surprising defection news Angela Smith, MP for Penistone & Stocksbridge, formerly of Labour, then of Change UK, more recently one of "The Independents", has joined the Lib Dems.

I think this makes the composition of the House

Con 287 (+1 deputy speaker)
Lab 245 (+2 deputy speakers)
SNP 35
Lib Dem 17
DUP 10
Sinn Féin 7
The Independent Group for Change 5
Plaid 4
Green 1
Speaker 1
Independent 35

(Independent here includes "The Independents", now down to 3, and Frank Field, as I'm not sure what the status of his new party is.)

[YL]

Is there a constituency-by-party map somewhere being updated daily on a regular basis?

@ElectionMapsUK posts one on Twitter from time to time.  E.g.
https://twitter.com/ElectionMapsUK/status/1169553595420876802
but that's from before today's two, so Hastings & Rye should now be grey and Penistone & Stocksbridge gold.

[Silent Hunter]

Can a person not watch Strictly Come Dancing in peace without another political bombshell?

[CumbrianLefty]

Which makes the Government majority -43...

John Mann has announced he will not seek re-election as an MP due to his opposition to Corbyn.

And has taken a government sinecure as its "anti-Semitism tsar".

(the irony of the latter term in this context has not been lost on a few)

[jeron]

Can a person not watch Strictly Come Dancing in peace without another political bombshell?

Why would any sane person want to watch Strictly come dancing?

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

To quote one particularly distinguished parliamentarian from the past:

Ye sordid prostitutes have you not defil’d this sacred place, and turn’d the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral principles and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves gone! So! Take away that shining bauble there, and lock up the doors.

[Cassius]

To quote one particularly distinguished parliamentarian from the past:

Ye sordid prostitutes have you not defil’d this sacred place, and turn’d the Lord’s temple into a den of thieves, by your immoral principles and wicked practices? Ye are grown intolerably odious to the whole nation; you were deputed here by the people to get grievances redress’d, are yourselves gone! So! Take away that shining bauble there, and lock up the doors.

https://youtu.be/CwjFywjOKoY

[parochial boy]

So in the last day or two we've got a couple of polls that look ok for the Tories, and a couple that look pretty bad. My own particular take is that anyone claiming to know what an election would look like (before or after October 31) is only lying to themselves.

[Joe Republic]

So in the last day or two we've got a couple of polls that look ok for the Tories, and a couple that look pretty bad. My own particular take is that anyone claiming to know what an election would look like (before or after October 31) is only lying to themselves.

Just ask Theresa May about triggering an election while the Tories are enjoying a big polling lead. 

[Middle-aged Europe]

https://twitter.com/lewis_goodall/status/1171010813240512512


Prorogation of Parliament will start TONIGHT.

https://news.sky.com/story/live-johnson-meets-irish-pm-ahead-of-second-push-for-snap-general-election-11805412

[Helsinkian]

Apparently the newest cunning plan by Cummings is that Johnson will send the letter required by Parliament seeking an extension to the European Council -- but he will also send another letter where he asks the Council to ignore the first letter and not grant an extension. In this way BoJo will follow the letter of the law but can still seek to stop an extension.

If that's not feasible I suppose Boris could privately request Orbán or some other leader to veto the extension without putting anything on paper.

Edit. One Tory MP tweeted this:

https://twitter.com/DKShrewsbury/status/1170439183208472578

[Silent Hunter]

Legal opinion on a move like that is that wheeze would be illegal.

[jaichind]

Apparently the newest cunning plan by Cummings is that Johnson will send the letter required by Parliament seeking an extension to the European Council -- but he will also send another letter where he asks the Council to ignore the first letter and not grant an extension. In this way BoJo will follow the letter of the law but can still seek to stop an extension.

I like it. Another variation is for Johnson to work with Hungary directly to have Hungary veto any extension. 

[Silent Hunter]

Hungary shows no signs of vetoing one, publicly or privately. France's views are qualified with "in the current circumstances".

[parochial boy]

Hungary's already on fairly unstable ground with the rest of the EU - dunno why Orban would want to play the martyr and sour relations even further just to help Boris.

Also, I'm wondering - if parliament is prorogued as of tomorrow - how do any of the mooted ideas like amending the FTPA or a vote of no confidence even occur?

[Silent Hunter]

In October.

[parochial boy]

Which would rule out a pre-31s election, no? Given the minimum 25 day campaign period? In which case it kind of looks like Boris has played himself

[Silent Hunter]

Indeed...

[Lord Halifax]

I doubt very much that one EU country is going to go gung-ho vetoing an extension against the will of the other 26. If there is a denial of extension it will be with the consensus of all Members. EU members are very, very reluctant to unilaterally use their veto in these matters - they know that if they do so they themselves will be at the receiving end of the veto at some point.

De Facto there will now be negotiations between France (and its supporters namely ES), who do not want an extension without significant progress on the British side, and Germany (and its Supporters like NL, BE) who desperately want an extension because of the pressure from Business. They will decide on a compromise, and because the Latter Bloc is the more powerful one in Europe, an extension will almost certainly be given, with some conditions attached.

Spain?