Scandal in the Wind 2023. George Santos gets Sashayed

[Roll Roons]

Does someone have NY-03's numbers in Hochul-Zeldin?

I'd love to see their #s in all of the competitive districts tbh

Ben Rosenblatt on Twitter. More or less matched Zeldin.

Also that doesn't appear to be a real Churchill Quote. One some level I wouldn't be surprised if this is a pathological liar.

A Biden +8, Zeldin +14 seat. Woof. Dems really fell through the floor in Long Island.

EDIT: Apparently this is only the Nassau County part of the seat. The district does contain a small bit of Queens so it probably isn't QUITE this bad.

The vast majority of this seat's population lives in Nassau. The Queens portion is definitely bluer than the Nassau portion but it's probably still something like Zeldin +12 overall.

[Roll Roons]

This story just gets weirder the more I think about it.

If his whole bio is fake, that begs the question of what the hell he's been doing for most of his adult life (besides stealing checks, apparently). The only vaguely comparable situation I can think of is Cawthorn, but at least with him there's a lot less time to account for.

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okay so what do we actually know about this guy

Honestly nothing. I’m not even 100% sure his real name is George Santos.

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Dave just DRAGGING George

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1606022268378681344

Who's currently the longest serving House member? I know among women it's Kaptur('82), is there a man who's been around longer?

Hal Rogers and Chris Smith are tied for longest serving (both elected in 1980), although Rogers is more senior because his name is first alphabetically.

Steny Hoyer is more junior than Rogers and Smith because he got elected in a 1981 special, but he's more senior than Kaptur.

[Roll Roons]

Apparently he told coworkers that he was born in Brazil, so it's possible that he's not even a citizen: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/is-george-santos-a-us-citizen

[Roll Roons]

Apparently he told coworkers that he was born in Brazil, so it's possible that he's not even a citizen: https://talkingpointsmemo.com/edblog/is-george-santos-a-us-citizen

if he is a naturalized citizen why would this matter?

It wouldn't. But given everything else, would it be that much of a stretch to say he's lying about being a citizen?

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If Santos resigns, Democrats better go all in in NY-03

I don't think he will, the Republicans need his vote for Speaker and so forth.

TBF, it's possible that he only resigns after the Speaker vote happens.

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https://mobile.twitter.com/MuellerSheWrote/status/1608221329291108354

Proxy voting is being abolished in the new Congress so it’s a moot point.

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https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1608814260456652800?cxt=HHwWgIDQgfmC1NMsAA...

I agree. How is it that the Nassau GOP decided that this guy was their best option and let him go unopposed in the primary?

[Roll Roons]

Assuming he's not lying about being gay, this could explain why he was apparently married to a woman:
https://twitter.com/NaveedAJamali/status/1609967779230191618?t=xxX76psDprw1PRo0s...

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Sign of a very serious representative: https://twitter.com/nicholaswu12/status/1612550511852396544?cxt=HHwWgICxlbOJ9-As...

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Legistorm said it was an error on their part. I think the confusion stems from the fact that Santos hired a staffer who had previously worked on Paladino's campaign.

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The resume that Santos presented to the Nassau GOP in 2020: https://int.nyt.com/data/documenttools/resume-of-george-santos/95321af46e1dc223/full.pdf

Perhaps it's par for the course with him that he claimed to have graduated summa cum laude from Baruch.

[Roll Roons]

The more lurid stuff aside, can Santos (or whatever his name really is) actually prove for certain that he's a US citizen?

If he's traveled to Brazil, he must have a passport at least.

What did he have to provide to state election authorities and the FEC when he filed for office?

[Roll Roons]

If he does run for reelection, will he lose his primary by more than Liz Cheney did?

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If he indeed resigns, I guess Hochul would be interested in calling a special election very fast? Democrats should play it save then and nominate Suozzi. Not my favorite guy, but the safest bet for a pickup and make a small Republican majority even thinner.

Looked up NY special elections and from what I'm gathering, Hochul has a relatively narrow window. She has to call the special election for "not less than 70 nor more than 80 days" from when the vacancy occured, so roughly two and a half months.

Huh, they must have changed the laws recently. I remember Chris Collins resigned from NY-27 on October 1, 2019 but the special election to replace him didn't happen until June 28, 2020 (and then it took another three weeks for the winner of the special to be sworn in).

[Roll Roons]

Wake me up when the Netflix documentary comes out.

[Roll Roons]

Well if a special is forced in one way or another,  look for Souzzi to attempt a triumphant return.

I doubt it, there’s already a couple credible democrats running for the seat

Bear in mind that for specials in NY, nominees are chosen by the local parties. If Suozzi does run, hard to see how they don't pick him.

[Roll Roons]

From a political standpoint, you'd think Republican's would rather risk a low turnout special and potentially get a half decent incumbent as opposed to a high turnout presidential year where democrats have a good chance of taking the seat back against a no name.

Also bear in mind that for specials in NY, nominees are chosen by the local parties so this time, the Nassau GOP can properly vet their candidate.

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What are the odds he actually gets expelled now?

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So apparently, no other Republicans ran in NY-03 because it was assumed to be a Safe D seat under the original disgusting gerrymander and by the time that gerrymander was overturned and the special master map was finalized, it was too close to the filing deadline.

Looking back, I don't really buy that excuse. D'Esposito announced he was running in April 2022 and Lawler announced he was running in May. The Nassau GOP could have found someone credible in April or May. Why didn't they?

[Roll Roons]

Hopefully it passes this time, although I'm skeptical because Republicans don't want to lose a seat with a narrow majority and a likely loss in the subsequent special election.

A lot of members probably think he's such a huge liability that having him around isn't worth the extra seat.

[Roll Roons]

https://twitter.com/AndrewSolender/status/1728238454147019139

[Roll Roons]

Hopefully it passes this time, although I'm skeptical because Republicans don't want to lose a seat with a narrow majority and a likely loss in the subsequent special election.

A lot of members probably think he's such a huge liability that having him around isn't worth the extra seat.

A liability of what ?

He's been a reliable vote for the House Leadership.

If they expell him and have a special election they will go down a seat and never win it against a Democrat incumbent.

Their only hope is kicking expulsion down the road until it's too late to hold a special election.

If he's still around by Election Day, Democrats could attack all the vulnerable NY Republicans by trying to tie them to Santos. Given how many seats Republicans are defending in NY in addition to this one, leadership probably sees him as so toxic that it's worth cutting this one seat loose in order to try and save all the others.

[Roll Roons]

Assuming Santos gets expelled, who do the local R chairs pick for the special?