Canadian Election 2019

[beesley]

I wonder how Vancouver and Montreal are looking now.

For Montreal, it seems that the NDP could be wiped off there.

Rosemont is the only seat they can hold (it's probably their best shot in Quebec and the one seat they're favoured in) but they'll lose the other two, probably both to the Bloc.

[beesley]

Who will succeed Singh?

Sven Robinson is outspoken and probably could get media attention and visibility.

Svend Robinson, Niki Ashton, Charlie Angus, Guy Caron, Alexandre Boulerice

Some others to think about: REB, Tracey Ramsey, Andrew Cash

Not a bad list. You could add Peter Julian. Trouble is, it's possible only two of those win (Angus and Boulerice, add Julian for a third). That would be a really bad result for the NDP and I think they can definitely do better - but it isn't outside the realms of possibility.

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/bruceanderson/status/1150728493766008833/photo/1

Interesting poll this - voting intention after respondents named their most important issues. The numbers are for each issue's respondents, so each individual voter is included multiple times.

[beesley]

https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa

First riding poll of the campaign is from Mainstreet in Niagara Centre. Liberal Vance Badawey (39%) leads Con April Jeffs by 11 (incl. undecideds), former NDP MP Malcolm Allen who was believed to be the favourite came third on 17%. Last time, Badawey unseated Allen by 4.

[beesley]

https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa

First riding poll of the campaign is from Mainstreet in Niagara Centre. Liberal Vance Badawey (39%) leads Con April Jeffs by 11 (incl. undecideds), former NDP MP Malcolm Allen who was believed to be the favourite came third on 17%. Last time, Badawey unseated Allen by 4.

While he's running again, given how his party's polling and how he no longer has incumbent advantage, I think it's jumping the gun to say Allen was believed to be the favourite (even if leftish social media a la Babble would like to think so)

There are a lot of those people who still think the NDP will have net gains. But in fairness, a lot of people on EPP didn't expect this either (I thought Allen was able to win)

[beesley]

https://t.co/x89C1D93Sa

First riding poll of the campaign is from Mainstreet in Niagara Centre. Liberal Vance Badawey (39%) leads Con April Jeffs by 11 (incl. undecideds), former NDP MP Malcolm Allen who was believed to be the favourite came third on 17%. Last time, Badawey unseated Allen by 4.

While he's running again, given how his party's polling and how he no longer has incumbent advantage, I think it's jumping the gun to say Allen was believed to be the favourite (even if leftish social media a la Babble would like to think so)

There are a lot of those people who still think the NDP will have net gains. But in fairness, a lot of people on EPP didn't expect this either (I thought Allen was able to win)

People think that? That's optimistic. The NDP are in a really rough spot electorally right now.

I don't see how it can happen really. It would either involve the NDP winning back seats like Ottawa Centre, Halifax or Northwest Territories, all of which should stay Liberal, or the NDP regaining their position against the Conservatives and holding up in the West, assuming they don't recover in Quebec. None of those look possible or likely.

Never doubt hyper partisans ability to talk up their chances though. If you listened to them you could expect Liberal wins in Lethbridge and Louis Saint Laurent and Conservative wins in Lac Saint Louis and Victoria.

[beesley]

For one example, in one riding poll last time round, Seamus O'Regan lost to Ryan Clearly by a good margin - obviously the Liberals gained and he won with over 50%.

[beesley]

Another riding poll, this time in Whitby, ON. An open liberal seat (technically indy) won by 3% last time.

CPC 38
Lib 35
Green 8
NDP 4
PPC 3
Undecided 12

[beesley]

Internal polling at this stage needs to be taken with a grain of salt the size of Canada...

Indeed.

Boulerice is the only Dipper who I see winning in Quebec. Don't give me any of the Brosseau/Caron/Dusseault strong incumbent stuff. That won't save them now (although obviously if Boulerice wasn't a strong incumbent, it could easily be 0)

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/fordnation/status/1157681059376578563

I did not know about this at all. He was certainly one of the most personable Conservative MPs, and I suspect people will praise how he stuck up for immigrants to Canada when his party would not.

The comments say it all.

[beesley]

Grit Denis Paradis isn't running again in Brome-Missisquoi.

Why did he only decide now? Once Simms and Dhillon were nominated, I was sure everyone who was planning to retire had done so.

Safe Liberal.

[beesley]

Former cycling athlete Lyne Bessette is seeking the Lieral nomination in Brome-Missisquoi.

https://ici.radio-canada.ca/sports/1246084/lyne-bessette-candidate-investiture-liberale-brome-missisquoi

So doesn't look like Paradis just made the decision. She was recruited. It's managing the annoucement.

What's this obsession with getting sportspeople to run these days?

[beesley]

New riding poll in Quebec (Mainstreet again - these are the toplines):

Liberal (incumbent cabinet minister Duclos) - 30
Con - 23.4
Bloc (former MP Christine Gagnon running) - 20
NPD - 7
Green - 6.9
PPC - 2.7
Undecided - 8.4

Not a bad result for Duclos given his tally last time. Cons hoping to take this and neighbouring Louis-Hebert.

[beesley]

Two interesting candidacies:

The first, and probably the slightly more consequential: Former MLA for Calgary Bow and BC Liberal candidate in Nanaimo-North Cowichan has been nominated for the CPC in Alistair MacGregor's riding of Cowichan-Malahat-Langford. Both 338 and EPP have it going Green.

The second: Actor Jesse Lipscombe is putting himself forward for the Liberal nomination in true blue St Albert-Edmonton.

[beesley]

https://www.yapms.com/app/?m=1132



Since Kyle Hutton did one, and I had some time, here's mine for today.

I have

160 for the Liberals with 92 safe, 31 likely, 21 leaning and 16 tilting
141 for the Conservatives with 88 safe, 26 likely, 18 leaning and 9 tilting
15 for the New Democrats with 4 safe, 6 likely, 2 leaning and 3 tilting
16 for the Bloc Quebecois with 5 safe, 5 likely, 4 leaning and 2 tilting
6 for the Greens with 4 safe, 1 leaning and 1 tilting.
None for the PPC, Christian Heritage, Wilson-Raybould, Philpott, or anyone else.

[beesley]

MQO reserach is doing polls for each province in Atlantic Canada.  In Newfoundland, Liberals are ahead, but the shift since 2015 is pretty massive, mind you Liberal numbers there were so high reversion to the mean was probably expected.

Liberal 46%
Conservative 38%
NDP 11%
Green 2%
PPC 2%

Regardless of what any poll says - the NDP is almost certain to pick up St. John's East where they are running Jack Harris. He will win on the strength of his personal brand

Could well be the only pickup for the NDP anywhere.

[beesley]

I don't think Scheer would be a good PM, I simply don't see him in that role, he lacks gravitas to me. Justin isn't better by a large margin, but he has good PR at least. Stephen Harper, the last Conservative PM was dignified, proud and strong to me, while Scheer is not.

This is why although I would lean towards the CPC normally, I wouldn't say I'm supporting them this time, although I get to escape that choice.

[beesley]

Kinda dumb they've decided to exclude Bernier from the debates when that Mainstreet poll literally just came out showing a tie in Beauce (i.e. the party has a chance at winning seats... or by "seats", they mean they have to have a chance at winning more than one?)

I hear they've asked them to name 3-5 seats they can win before they make the final decision, but you'll have to fact check me.

[beesley]

It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate — and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287

I wonder what seats Bernier sees as the most winnable for the PPC. Maybe some of the former Tory MPs? I don't think anybody else has a chance at winning aside from Bernier, but maybe some can hit 10% of the vote, which would be doubtful for debate qualification.

Steven Fletcher's riding? He could potentially get 10-15%.

[beesley]

Could the PPC inherit the Wildrose Party. Voters in Alberta?

Probably more likely to get voters who voted for the Freedom Conservative Party this year.

[beesley]

It seems in the possibility of winning seats, the plural is important. I don't know if the criteria is two or it's more.

The commission has consulted available opinion polls, riding projection sites and independent pollsters. None of these sources project, at this time, that the People's Party of Canada has a legitimate chance to elect more than one candidate," Johnston said.

Johnston said the decision to exclude Bernier could be reversed if the party submits a list of three to five ridings where the party believes it is most likely to elect a candidate — and then, Johnston said, the debate commission would conduct independent polling of its own in those ridings to verify that Bernier's chosen candidate has a reasonable chance of winning that seat.

https://www.cbc.ca/news/politics/leaders-debate-commission-maxime-bernier-out-1.5244287

This is absolutely ridiculous to me. Most of these sites rely on past election results to do their projections. How can they be of any use in the case for a new party? I suppose they can pull numbers out of their a**es to boost candidate numbers for people like Renata Ford or Steven Fletcher, or they might try to some regression analysis based on demographics, but I doubt any of them are doing that.

Very few sites seem to have beauce as competitive, but lots have it one way or the other, so they really are just making it up.

[beesley]

Jagmeet Singh has a better chance of being the next PM than Bernier does of losing Beauce.

I like those odds!

Did you support him in the leadership election?

[beesley]

https://twitter.com/CanadianPolling/status/1162080521037451265

Seems weird at first, but don't forget how crazy and disorganised the Liberal candidate and local party were last time - some of the voters who wanted to vote liberal last time may get a chance this time and so are returning. Still, +15 when they tanked further up the island is something. And remember it's a riding poll from Mainstreet, which can sometimes be wildly off.

[beesley]

The NDP has withdrawn the candidacy of Pierre Nantel in Longueuil-Saint-Hubert because he has talks with the Green party about possibly running for them.  He is out of caucus.

Didn't he also flirt with the Bloc Quebecois and/or the Parti Quebecois?  Seems like a strange person.

He doesn't like Jagmeet Singh.

[beesley]

Pupatello's running against Masse.

Melinda Munro was a good candidate anyway, but Liberals will be rather pleased.

Windsor West was in my view the safest NDP seat in the country (other than potentially Vancouver East). We'll have to see what happens. Difficult balancing act for the NDP given that both their other local seats are vulnerable. They won't want a repeat of 2015 in St John's, where Harris got no attention and lost but they had placed all their resources into the South seat where Cleary lost to O'Regan by double digits.