Pennsylvania 2010 - The Official Thread

[Lunar]

Democrats, for some reason, don't get how Arlen Specter works.  I guess they'll figure it out over time (maybe), but to me it's been consistently clear.

Read the polls carefully, gentlemen.  They tell you all you need to know.

Px stole the word I was going to use.   He's genetically inclined to be a prick. 

I don't actually expect him to vote against her, but by playing coy he can look more informed, objective, and extract a higher concession from the powers that be, even if it's only reiterating their prior promises to back his reelection.  At the very least he is a little self-conscious about looking like the Democrats' lapdog -- his actions and statements immediately after the switch make that clear.

Not sure what hidden information is contained in the polls as I do not look closely at polls this far out nor do I particularly care with Arlen.  If you care to actually say what you mean instead of pointlessly bragging about your superior knowledge, go ahead.

Reid has already "dared" his caucus to vote against Sotomayor.  We'll see of the Boxer from Searchlight can show some muscle.

[Sam Spade]

The polls tell me that Specter will be very hard to beat in the primary or general election if he focuses his actions on appealing to a coalition of moderate Republicans, moderate Democrats and Independents.  To the contrary, the polls tell me that Specter will probably lose in the primary or general election if he focuses on appealing to a coalition different than this.  It was that way in 2004 too.

In other words, Specter will vote for Sotomayor unless something more ridiculous comes out than has already been revealed but this type of comment is consistent with this pattern of appeal outlined above.

[Lunar]

On the other hand, Pennsylvania is still a machine state where ward leaders, labor leaders, and their fundraising allies are also far more important than someplace normal.  Rendell will be behind Specter no matter what, but I'm sure Obama's support is conditional.
 

[Sam Spade]

On the other hand, Pennsylvania is still a machine state where ward leaders, labor leaders, and their fundraising allies are also far more important than someplace normal.  Rendell will be behind Specter no matter what, but I'm sure Obama's support is conditional.
 

Obama doesn't support Specter, Specter will do his best to screw Obama and the Dems both in Congress and in the 2010 election, especially the latter.  I can think of a number of ways off the top of my head. 

[Lunar]

Well my prediction has always been this:  If Specter doesn't vote against the filibuster on Dawn Johnsen (the only thing anyone has against her is that she worked for NARAL -- and Specter is pro-choice anyway so there's no reason for it), he will be facing a serious primary challenge from Sestak.  He'll inexplicably vote against Johnsen on the actual up-or-down vote, of course.  This will demonstrate whether he's willing to fight the Democrats on little publicized procedural issues that don't matter in PA but matter a lot in DC.

We should be finding that out within a month or so, I suppose, depending on where Nelson ends up on the issue.

[Sam Spade]

With Specter, you never know what he'll do or why.  I suspect he'll go with the Dems on most procedural issues, but I suspect there will be odd breaks at times.  It was always that way with the Reps.

[Keystone Phil]

Our former state Attorney General Jerry Pappert is a guest on one of the Philly political talk shows. Each guest gets a few minutes at the end of the program to give their "Inside Story." Pappert, a Republican, was saying that Sestak is telling friends that having the President, Vice President and Governor (as well as others) against you in a primary against a sitting Senator isn't ideal for your first statewide campaign. He goes on to say that we should expect to see Sestak "stay in Congress." Well, if we wanted to get technical, he's still running for a spot in Congress but you get his point. 

I don't know what to make of this. I never got to know Pappert's allegiances. He might be personally invested with Specter even though Specter switched (Pappert isn't believed to have a political future. He served as interim Attorney General after Mike Fisher was appointed to a federal judge spot. I don't think he has even run for office before). If he's just a Specter guy, he might have just said what he said to scare more political insiders away from Sestak.

Then again, this might be real and as I suggested before, Sestak "staying in" the race for now does him no real harm. It helps him raise a few million and raise his profile, too, so this could all be a sham. We'll see.

[Lunar]

Indeed.

One thing that I've never understood is why the White House is trying so hard to save Specter.  The more in danger he is from the left, the more he'll actually be forced to tangibly back White House policies.  White House support should be conditional.  You back my judicial nominee I'll send Biden.  You back everything and I'll appear in ad for you and hold a rally in Phillie and use my email list to support you....  and everything in between.  By crowding out Specter's opposition early, they're just ensuring that he'll drift farther to the right.  It seems that they should be secretly encouraging Sestak, and then have him withdraw at the last minute in exchange for Rahm trying to assist him in key pieces of legislation he's interested in passing or whatever.

And of course, there's buyer's remorse once you get to 2011.  He knows likely he won't be running again in 2016.  But the White House has to already know that part.

I mean, part of the reason why the White House felt compelled to intervene in this race in the first place was that Toomey was forcing Specter to become a [temporary] hardline conservative, guaranteeing no cloture votes could come through Pennsylvania.

[Lunar]

“It would take an act of God for me to not get in now,” Sestak told a Democratic State Committeeman Saturday morning within earshot of reporters.

Hearing his quote read back to him, Sestak cringed.

“That sounds blasphemous,” he said, not denying that he said it—and has said it before.

[J.G.H.]

“It would take an act of God for me to not get in now,” Sestak told a Democratic State Committeeman Saturday morning within earshot of reporters.

Hearing his quote read back to him, Sestak cringed.

“That sounds blasphemous,” he said, not denying that he said it—and has said it before.

In other words, a call from Obama.

[Lunar]

Nice!  That's the first remotely funny Messiah joke I've seen in six months.

[Rowan]

A major announcement coming from grassrootspa.com at 1 PM.

[Keystone Phil]

A major announcement coming from grassrootspa.com at 1 PM.

Yeah, I was going to post this as well. I'm nervous. Just a warning though - there is a good chance that this announcement will be something unrelated to this race. 

[Keystone Phil]

Rumor is that this may be about Corbett and Meehan in the Gubernatorial race...

[Keystone Phil]

As expected, it wasn't related to the race...or the Gubernatorial race...or any race. It was promoting Grassroots' expansion. 

[Lunar]

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/06/specter-to-labor-youll-like-how-i-vote-on-efca--labor-skeptical.php

Not that it's unexpected, but this is a pretty egotistical speech

It gets good towards the end with the heckler

[Keystone Phil]

http://www.dailykos.com/storyonly/2009/6/7/739895/-Arlen-Specter-Lovefest-Shows-Our-Partys-Weakness

[Speed of Sound]

Ugh, such horrid machine politics. Sick chess game to guarantee a seat, ironically that letter next to the name gives us nothing.

[Landslide Lyndon]

LMAO!!!
I'm sure Phil will appreciate this post:

http://tpmdc.talkingpointsmemo.com/2009/06/specter-tweets-his-3-for-joe-sestakthen-deletes-it.php

[Badger]

Indeed.

One thing that I've never understood is why the White House is trying so hard to save Specter.  The more in danger he is from the left, the more he'll actually be forced to tangibly back White House policies.  White House support should be conditional.  You back my judicial nominee I'll send Biden.  You back everything and I'll appear in ad for you and hold a rally in Phillie and use my email list to support you....  and everything in between.  By crowding out Specter's opposition early, they're just ensuring that he'll drift farther to the right.  It seems that they should be secretly encouraging Sestak, and then have him withdraw at the last minute in exchange for Rahm trying to assist him in key pieces of legislation he's interested in passing or whatever.

And of course, there's buyer's remorse once you get to 2011.  He knows likely he won't be running again in 2016.  But the White House has to already know that part.

I mean, part of the reason why the White House felt compelled to intervene in this race in the first place was that Toomey was forcing Specter to become a [temporary] hardline conservative, guaranteeing no cloture votes could come through Pennsylvania.

But it appears that the White House is adopting exactly this same strategy. Notice they're not making a fraction of the effort to push Sestak out of the race that they have for Israel and Maloney in NY. Beyond the initial expected endorsement at the party switch there hasn't been the kind of no-holds bared support for Specter compared to Gillibrand. (At least from Obama, Rendell has kept the pressure on Sestak, but arguably has different motives in the race). Remember how Reid withdrew his promise to immediately count Specter's seniority towards committee chair assignments rightwhen Specter was going out of his way to screw Obama and the Senate Dems?

I wouldn't be at all surprised if Sestak has quietly been told by the White House that, while they'll support Specter, they have no life-or-death issue with his running in the primary---for now.

[Sam Spade]

One thing that I've never understood is why the White House is trying so hard to save Specter.

I'm pretty sure that full, unquestioned support was what Rahm gave Specter in exchange for switching sides.

[Keystone Phil]

Toomey raised over $1 million in about sixty days and, in what is probably bigger news, he has hired Specter's former fundraiser.

[Chesco ABB]

In response to Sam's earlier comment: I'm a Democrat (and a former Republican) and I get how Specter works.  I just hope he loses in 2010.

[TeePee4Prez]

In response to Sam's earlier comment: I'm a Democrat (and a former Republican) and I get how Specter works.  I just hope he loses in 2010.

Never saw you on here before.  Welcome.  Yeah, I want flip-flop Specter gone too.  I pity the arrogant fool.

[Chesco ABB]

Haven't been on here in a while. This should be an interesting cycle for PA politics.