Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[NOVA Green]

Is this election really as close as it's "cracked out" to be?

MSM is now making this like a horserace election, but my question would be why unless DEM TO sinks dramatically or massive swings in the Deep DEM 'Burbs of Metro DC, and lesser extent Richmond, plus major shifts in Tidewater.

Ideas Atlas Hive?

[NOVA Green]

Still don't understand why NJ and VA still have odd-year elections for State Races.

I can understand some of the "Doomsters" from VA considering that even in OR which hasn't voted PUB for PRES since '84 and GOV since 1982, but yet we have had many frequently closely contested Gubernatorial races where PUBs have almost won since then.

Obviously VA is quite a few decades behind OR to becoming a solidly DEM State, but a lot of folks vote differently for State Races (Especially in off-years) than in PRES years.

Suspect this will come down to TO and the composition of the electorate and if the PUB "Suburban Strategy" in the VA-GOV race will pan out.

[NOVA Green]

Anyone want to take a stab at county level benchmarks for the 2021 VA GOV election?

Odd year elections are weird and Gubernatorial Elections even weirder than Federal Elections on many levels, but curious if any of our Atlas Geeks want to take a stab at what we should be looking at election Night when it comes to performance by party?

Not really an expert at all on VA elections, but would be interesting to see, especially since if past is future, rural counties tend to start reporting results earlier and then NOVA dumps last....

OR will NOVA dump EVs early and then give us some idea of how the night might develop as same-day and late EV votes trickle in?

Atlas Hive--- Thoughts???

[NOVA Green]

This entire thread is so bunk....

We have (109) pages even prior to the election, and I simply post asking for does Atlas Hive have benchmarks and then an hour later we have three pages of random squabbling for the most part and some old Dave Wasserman benchmarks from three weeks ago which appears to be only TV by candidate by county and not % vote by county....

Jesus Christo.... "Come on Man".... give us some real juice since here we are on the Friday evening before Tuesday's election, AND WE DEMAND ANSWERS from Virginia SME's and not petty bickering!!!!

[NOVA Green]

Republicans sweep all 3 offices.

Welcome to the Forum!!!

Let's see if your prophecy is fulfilled.   

If you care to expand, would definitely be a breath of fresh air after some of the various posts we have seen over the past week or two here.   

[NOVA Green]

This entire thread is so bunk....

We have (109) pages even prior to the election, and I simply post asking for does Atlas Hive have benchmarks and then an hour later we have three pages of random squabbling for the most part and some old Dave Wasserman benchmarks from three weeks ago which appears to be only TV by candidate by county and not % vote by county....

Jesus Christo.... "Come on Man".... give us some real juice since here we are on the Friday evening before Tuesday's election, AND WE DEMAND ANSWERS from Virginia SME's and not petty bickering!!!!

I literally responded to your post with benchmarks.

Somebody else's and three weeks old, but no I'm totally cool with what you did there, but was hoping for maybe a higher level of analysis...

[NOVA Green]

This entire thread is so bunk....

We have (109) pages even prior to the election, and I simply post asking for does Atlas Hive have benchmarks and then an hour later we have three pages of random squabbling for the most part and some old Dave Wasserman benchmarks from three weeks ago which appears to be only TV by candidate by county and not % vote by county....

Jesus Christo.... "Come on Man".... give us some real juice since here we are on the Friday evening before Tuesday's election, AND WE DEMAND ANSWERS from Virginia SME's and not petty bickering!!!!

I literally responded to your post with benchmarks.

Somebody else's and three weeks old, but no I'm totally cool with what you did there, but was hoping for maybe a higher level of analysis...

No idea what you are talking about.  I posted my own benchmarks of NOVA counties.  I didn't post the Wasserman crap.  I don't value his tweets.

NSV--- Was not talking about you when it came to the Wasserman benchmarks (Was a DEM Avatar from NJ).

But at least you gave us something...

Anyone want to take a stab at county level benchmarks for the 2021 VA GOV election?

Odd year elections are weird and Gubernatorial Elections even weirder than Federal Elections on many levels, but curious if any of our Atlas Geeks want to take a stab at what we should be looking at election Night when it comes to performance by party?

Not really an expert at all on VA elections, but would be interesting to see, especially since if past is future, rural counties tend to start reporting results earlier and then NOVA dumps last....

OR will NOVA dump EVs early and then give us some idea of how the night might develop as same-day and late EV votes trickle in?

Atlas Hive--- Thoughts???

Terry should aim for 67%+ in Fairfax.  65% and it gets dicey.  Under 63% and it's a real problem.

Terry should aim for 58%+ in Loudoun.  He should aim for 60%+ in Prince William.  As long as those numbers hold up he should be fine regardless of what happens downstate (unless black turnout just utterly collapses, which there is no evidence of).

Regardless this thread is virtually unreadable and there should be a new thread specific to VA-GOV results since it is vastly becoming a virtual timewaster, especially for a Forum where elections are one of the few things we do well...

[NOVA Green]

My pub leeker is visiting this weekend. I'll try to see if hes seen any new internals. Last week's was Youngkin +2 which is more likely than the Youngkin +8 Dem internal i was leaked last week.

 🙄

I didn't say i believed it but yeah it does exist.

I don't believe you that it exists.

Lol. Ok dude. But my source had no reason to lie to me and was very distressed.

Link to source?

Or are you just some random VA-CON poster on Atlas with no connections and no real add-on values, but are hiding behind sources which may or may not exist?

No reason to doubt, but any time on on an internet Forum when people claim they have "sources" without citing them gives me at least a reasonable assumption that facts are not real unless proved otherwise.

[NOVA Green]

If we don't police ourselves the mods might end up doing it for us.

[NOVA Green]

https://www.reddit.com/gallery/qiixpk

Gallery of interesting mailers, from Reddit.

Easy basic late '70s / early mid '80s style...

Direct mail doesn't play nearly as will as it did in the dayz... assumption this it targeting seniors or persuadable voters, but is def (If legit) using PUB "Moral Majority" style mailers to close the deal with ED voters....

[NOVA Green]

Hopping back into the election for a moment, what are the areas of the state to watch come election night?

My political knowledge of VA is largely limited to NoVA = Democratic, not-NoVA = Republican. 

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1453852175046783029

Spoiler alert! Click Show to show the content.

Show

Thanks for sharing Vaccinated Russian Bear...

These look more updated than the data a VA poster shared some 15 pages or so back when I asked if anyone had benchmarks to look for.

I didn't want to go and manually transcribe all of his numbers into percentages, but here are some samples for rough %s that Youngkin would need to hit for a win:

I took some random rural counties as well as some of the "key counties / cities to watch"

Albemarle:  37%
Amerherst: 72%
Augusta:    77%
Bedford:    78%
Brunswick: 48%
Campbell: 77%
Chesapeake: 51%
Chesterfield: 51%
Culpepper: 65%
Frederick: 69%
Hampton: 32%
Henrico: 40%
James City: 52%
Lynchburg: 55%
Montgomery: 51%
Newport News: 38%
Norfolk: 32%
Pittsylvania: 74%
Prince William: 42%
Richmond City: 20%
Roanoke County: 66%
Spotsylvania: 59%
Stafford: 54%
Virginia Beach: 52%
York: 58%

[NOVA Green]

No comments about my translation of some of the Wasserman benchmarks from 10/28/21, but all sorts of other random posts?

[NOVA Green]

No comments about my translation of some of the Wasserman benchmarks from 10/28/21, but all sorts of other random posts?

Wasserman is the worst professional politico IMO.  Look how bad a job he did at predicting 2020.  I don't trust his benchmarks at all.

Then provide your own.   

Been cruising around to see if Miles (Atlas own legend who moved on to greener pastures) has any benchmarks posted on his Twitter channel.

Couldn't easily locate any, but looks like he is now working for Sabato's Crystal Ball (Based out of Virginia) so wouldn't be surprised to see Miles post something prior to ED....     

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/JMilesColeman/status/1453854974509735937?s=20

[NOVA Green]

No comments about my translation of some of the Wasserman benchmarks from 10/28/21, but all sorts of other random posts?

I forgot, the whole purpose of the thread is to answer your questions...

Not saying it's not a dumpster fire of a thread, but come on, that read as really silly.

Fair enough, you probably correct my SD friend.

Starting to wonder why even bother posting in this particular thread, when there are a few others out there with much higher quality of content and analysis.

Still, this particular thread tends to be dominated by posts from one individual and we get all this other crap floating around, so naturally am a bit frustrated.

Maybe you can answer some of my questions.       

[NOVA Green]

Hot take: If Youngking gets a +15-16% lead in Election Day votes, he wins. Trump got +26% in 2020.

Are you expecting a huge Election Day turnout?

Yes, I expect 2 million votes

Wasserman had it at 2.9 Million on his benchmarks.

So if it's only around 2 Million who benefits the most???

[NOVA Green]

Is it time to blame Manchin for Tmacs loss yet?

No, but it might be time to blame Jayapal and Sanders.

NO---

This a bunk beltway argument that somehow VA voters will vote on the basis of Infrastructure bills vs local election stuff.

Never bought the argument at all and still don't.

DEM centrists still have their bottoms sore from '16 & '20 and want to blame the Progressive DEMs for everything.

Don't worry we will primary almost all of them in the next couple years, with the exception of Mansion and the Cinema Witch is def going down in '24   

[NOVA Green]

Hot take: If Youngking gets a +15-16% lead in Election Day votes, he wins. Trump got +26% in 2020.

Are you expecting a huge Election Day turnout?

Yes, I expect 2 million votes

Wasserman had it at 2.9 Million on his benchmarks.

So if it's only around 2 Million who benefits the most???

Are you sure he was referring to E-Day turnout and not the total? That's incredibly high.

Well... these were vaccinated Russian Bear link to a Wasserman tweet from 10/28/21.

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=412258.msg8317687#msg8317687

Looks to be legit after briefly tracking down Dave Wasserman on Twitter...

https://twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1453852175046783029?s=20

[NOVA Green]

Guess there was logistical reasons why Virginia Beach didn't happen

https://twitter.com/shannonrwatts/status/1455314059679645698

Is this logistical or tactical?

Meaning is the TMAC campaign looking at it like better to boost ED TO in NoVA vs trying to build up SE-VA?

I'm wondering if part of it has to do with potential for mail delays (which are even listed on the Fairfax County website) so they figure better to gin up margins in the North (plus free and generally favorable local media coverage) vs trying to scrounge up additional votes in SE-VA?

Thought Youngkin was supposed to be in SE VA today as well?

[NOVA Green]

One other thing I've been wondering about is distribution of votes as election results come in Tomorrow.

Sounds like in a close election ( +/- 1-2% spread) with EV more extensive, we might start with a model where TMAC starts with a pretty large lead from NOVA then that gets whittled down as same day votes start to get tallied from downstate rurals (With possibly even a Youngkin lead for a bit) and then same day NOVA starts to counterattack.

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/MaryMargOlohan/status/1455340686182584327?s=20

https://twitter.com/justinhintontv/status/1455340064452587522?s=20

Doesn't look all that big to me....

[NOVA Green]

One other thing I've been wondering about is distribution of votes as election results come in Tomorrow.

Sounds like in a close election ( +/- 1-2% spread) with EV more extensive, we might start with a model where TMAC starts with a pretty large lead from NOVA then that gets whittled down as same day votes start to get tallied from downstate rurals (With possibly even a Youngkin lead for a bit) and then same day NOVA starts to counterattack.

Steve K on Rachel on MSNBC is predicting a mixture with EV coming in heavy from both rural PUB Counties AND DEM NOVA, with rural PUB ED voting coming in quickly as well.

Basically he's saying it's hard for him to benchmark the TO (~ 3 Million) but could change plus or minus.

RE: AA voter TO he's thinking the closer to 20% better number for DEMs under 18% not so good (Will look at it County by County on eNight).

Naturally mentions Loudon as well as White College Educated voter swings in NOVA (Also Richmond) as key, and also checks the AAPI and Latino vote esp in NOVA.

[NOVA Green]

A reporter from Powhatan claims to have seen Powhatan county GOp internal polling showing Youngkin 79 Mcauliffe 19 in the county


Seems decent for Youngkin but perhaps not enough of a swing

Wasserman benchmarks had it at 75-25 Youngkin for a narrow PUB win with est 14.5k TVs.

So yeah---- I really think TO could well make the difference for either candidate, since really this is a tricky race to model....

[NOVA Green]

https://twitter.com/MaryMargOlohan/status/1455340686182584327?s=20

https://twitter.com/justinhintontv/status/1455340064452587522?s=20

Doesn't look all that big to me....

Idk, it's definitely bigger than TMac's "rally", but as other users have already said, rallies don't matter

Agreed generally--- still in terms of GOTV and which generally going to be favorable local media coverage for just about any major party candidate's rallies, it could play a role depending upon how these events are covered by the local media (esp with Metro DC media markets being some of the most expensive in the country, certainly for last minute air time).

[NOVA Green]

I just did the math.  Since the 2017 election, the big 5 NOVA jurisdictions added 90,000 registered voters.  SWVA lost about 10,000. 

I looked at a scattering of other jurisdictions across the state and there was movement here or there that helped each party but the biggest shifts were in these two regions. 

Does VA have any variation of AVR?

Like do you need to request to be a registered voter or can you do that through a routine transaction at the DMV type gig?