UK General Discussion: Rishecession

[Mike88]

The queen just died? Wow. I didn’t know that. You’re telling me now for the first time. She led an amazing life. What else can you say? She was an amazing woman, whether you agreed or not. She was an amazing woman who led an amazing life. I’m actually sad to hear that.

There's nothing official yet, but, indeed the mood is quite somber.

[Mike88]

Spanish journalism has amazing pundits...

https://twitter.com/diana_aceves_/status/1567973590997389312

What lies ahead, what kind of reign can we expect right now with Carlos III on the throne?

The first thing we can expect is a shorter reign than his mother's.

[Mike88]

Yeah the fuss some are trying to make over the pen is ridiculous, if anything it humanises him.

I've always liked Charles, though I suppose I should be against the institution of the monarchy I still hope Charles is successful as king

What I found funny was how calm Camilla was while Charles was just freaking out about the pen. She calmly asked for another pen and more calmly signed the book. My view of her is changing a lot. About King Charles' fuss, well, he's under a lot of pressure, a lot of engagements plus he just lost his mother. It's not an easy moment. Adding that he knows that the public has strong doubts about him, and that he needs to prove he's up for the job. It's a lot over his shoulders.

[Mike88]

I agree with many have posted. The Tories have run out of ideas and are a complete hindrance for the country, plus, they are doing a lot of damage to their image and credibility. 12/13 years in power is a long time and adding deep internal divisions to it, only masked by a weak Labour opposition, the cracks are now clear and the building is starting to crumble. A snap election defeat could actually be the only thing that can save the Tories future prospects, right now.

[Mike88]

More polling puts Labour at 50% or above:

Omnisis: (never heard of them before TBH)

55% Labour
23% Tories

PeoplePolling:

50% Labour
20% Tories

[Mike88]

More polling continues to put Labour above 50%:

Deltapoll:

51% Labour
26% Tories

Omnisis:

51% Labour
24% Tories

PeoplePolling:

52% Labour
20% Tories

Of the 16 polls released after the mini-budget fiasco, 9 of them have Labour at 50% or above.

[Mike88]

Charles III coronation is schedule for the 6th May 2023 on Westminster Abbey.

Will Liz Truss still be PM by then?

[Mike88]

Charles III coronation is schedule for the 6th May 2023 on Westminster Abbey.

Will Liz Truss still be PM by then?

The local elections are 2 days earlier so the coronation may soften the blow (both distracting people beforehand and forcing people to move on quickly in the aftermath).

Who knows at this point, right? There could even be a general election on that same day, May 4.

[Mike88]

The lady's not for... well, nevermind, I'm for turning, flipping, twirling, handstanding.

[Mike88]

All of this is just too embarrassing.

[Mike88]

Seriously, if Truss is already a joke, this whole Tory Mexican soap opera is even more ridiculous. Starting a whole new leadership race, or something similar, is just another nail in their coffin in terms of credibility and seriousness.

With the current state of things, the only way forward is a snap election, with all the consequences it will have to the Conservatives.

[Mike88]

In terms of seats this would look like this:

557 Labour
  52 SNP
  15 LibDems
    4 PC
    2 Conservatives
    1 Green
  18 North Ireland parties
    1 Other

From Electoral Calculus prediction tool.

[Mike88]

I think this sums it quite well, especially the last 22 seconds:

https://twitter.com/colinpmcquaid/status/1581268144244813825

[Mike88]

Oh dear, oh dear. So, now it's pensions. Seriously, doesn't she have advisers or spin doctors in her office? Liz, take a cue from Portugal's Costa: Sell pensions cuts by spinning them as "pension rises", it's not that difficult.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/johnestevens/status/1582782736791572482
Wonder what Charles says to her this week?

Liz Truss: Good evening Your Majesty.

King Charles: Christ! You're still here??

Liz Truss: Very good to see you.

King Charles: Oh, I can't bear this bloody thing!

[Mike88]

That's ITV, not C4...

Also, the last time we had three administrations in one year was 1945; Churchill's wartime coalition until the war in Europe ended, a Tory-only government until the GE, than Attlee's Labour one.

Wasn't that 1974? Heath majority until February, Wilson's minority until October and after that a Wilson slim majority.

[Mike88]

A bit out of context, but despite her 50 days or so as PM, Liz Truss is just one of the 9 PMs, since 1721, who have govern with two different monarchs.

[Mike88]

I believe the most consensual candidate for next PM, within number 10 right now, is of course... Larry the Cat. The rest have no chance at all.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/BJPMarshall/status/1583206638886203392

[Mike88]

Interesting that, if nothing changes until then, in December 2022, the 3 European countries using Greenwich Mean Time, UK, Ireland and Portugal, will all be led by PMs with Indian ancestry.

[Mike88]

https://twitter.com/SamCoatesSky/status/1667245877608566787?t=dBZv6Gikk1VMx44-GF...
Boris designs as MP, guess that's the end of it
.

Addio, adieu, auf wiedersehen, goodbye.

[Mike88]

Birmingham is broke: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-england-birmingham-66715441

Interesting that this is announced on the same day that we mark exactly one year of the day one of the world's most (insert adjective) leader rose to power... Liz Truss.

[Mike88]

The claim is that the Labour lead is soft- which in itself says something about the Conservative operation seeing as they’ve failed to deny it.

The other claim is that Starmer isn’t beloved enough or popular enough to win and this will stop him winning; as Prime Ministers Cameron, Thatcher, Heath, Wilson and Attlee all prove it doesn’t actually matter!

Yeah, Starmer may have issues in personal popularity, but in the end, it's incumbency fatigue that is the main and only factor. However, I wouldn't be surprised if the Conservatives poll higher than the high 20's of current polling, as many Reform voters could "return home" thus putting the Conservatives in the 30's.

[Mike88]

The claim is that the Labour lead is soft- which in itself says something about the Conservative operation seeing as they’ve failed to deny it.

The other claim is that Starmer isn’t beloved enough or popular enough to win and this will stop him winning; as Prime Ministers Cameron, Thatcher, Heath, Wilson and Attlee all prove it doesn’t actually matter!

Yeah, Starmer may have issues in personal popularity, but in the end, it's incumbency fatigue that is the main and only factor. However, I wouldn't be surprised if the Conservatives poll higher than the high 20's of current polling, as many Reform voters could "return home" thus putting the Conservatives in the 30's.

I fully expect the final vote figures for Labour and the Conservatives to look approximately like those of 1997 (with Labour maybe a tad lower and the Tories a tad higher).

Well, the Lib Dems are much weaker now than in 97, plus the SNP is not in a good moment, so all of this benefits Labour's share. I would say that the result could be more "2019 in reverse".

[Mike88]

A snap election - or even the more feasibly speculated on May 2024 GE - is, regardless of bluster, not going to happen unless the Tories can get clearly above 30% in the polls. As things currently stand, they are if anything going in the opposite direction.

I think that depends. Call me naive, but I'm sure that the Tories deep down know that they have no chance of winning the next election. 14 years in power, Brexit fiasco, crisis, scandals, incompetence, asking for 5 more years will be quite courageous, to say the least.

So, at this point what do they have to lose? Plus, Reform is surging in the polls and some even show them as the 3rd largest party. The Tories could think that an election now or in the next few months, on the Rwanda issue, could bring these voters back to the Tories.