NV Caucus Results Thread (doors close at 2 CT)

[Sorenroy]

CCD Results by Congressional District (72% Reporting):

Statewide (13 Delegates):
Sanders — 47% (9)
Biden — 21% (4)
Buttigieg — 14%
Warren — 9%
Steyer — 5%
Klobuchar — 4%

CD 1 (5):
Sanders — 59% (4)
Biden — 23% (1)
Buttigieg — 7%
Warren — 6%
Steyer — 5%
All Others — 1%

CD 2 (6):
Sanders — 42% (4)
Buttigieg — 19% (2)
Warren — 14%
Klobuchar — 11%
Biden — 8%
Steyer — 5%

CD 3 (6):
Sanders — 43% (3)
Biden — 19% (2)
Buttigieg — 19% (1)
Warren — 13%
Klobuchar — 4%
Steyer — 2%

CD 4 (6):
Sanders — 44% (4)
Biden — 30% (2)
Buttigieg — 11%
Steyer — 7%
Warren — 6%
Klobuchar — 2%

Total Pledged Delegates (36):
Sanders — 24
Biden — 9
Buttigieg — 3


I'm not exactly sure how pledged "Party Leaders and Elected Officials" work when calculating statewide delegates, but I'm assuming they're just part of the regular pool. If not, I'll correct the numbers.

[GeorgiaModerate]

So what does this mean in terms of state delegates?

Let's say Mayor Pete somehow pulls off 15% statewide, does this mean he will be shut out of delegates in CD-03 and possibly CD-04?

Not sure what this is trying to say. There are two pools of delegates. Some are awarded statewide , some by CD. They are separate. Both are awarded proportionally with a 15% threshold. This is near universal across the democratic contests.

So if candidate a passes 15% in a district, but misses statewide, they do get district delegates like Klob did in Iowa. You can also pass 15% statewide but fail to pass 15% in a district.

The latter is not mathematically possible.

I'm sure he means you can reach 15% statewide but fall short in one or more districts (not in all districts, which is how I think you parsed it).

[Progressive Pessimist]

As slow as the results are in being reported, at least we knew who won within an hour. Nevada always counts slow anyway. Iowa still looks worse.

Still though, let's hope this is the swan song for the Democratic Party caucus system.

[Oryxslayer]

So what does this mean in terms of state delegates?

Let's say Mayor Pete somehow pulls off 15% statewide, does this mean he will be shut out of delegates in CD-03 and possibly CD-04?

Not sure what this is trying to say. There are two pools of delegates. Some are awarded statewide , some by CD. They are separate. Both are awarded proportionally with a 15% threshold. This is near universal across the democratic contests.

So if candidate a passes 15% in a district, but misses statewide, they do get district delegates like Klob did in Iowa. You can also pass 15% statewide but fail to pass 15% in a district.

The latter is not mathematically possible.

Not in Nevada with only 4 CDs, or in any of the smaller states so far. It certainly will when we hit super tuesday or for that matter any of the states with vacant (uber-GOP) districts thanks to voter sorting. One could easily imagine Bernie passing 15% in Texas but at the same time missing the threshold in a place like TX32/31. Or we can have districts like TX13 where Biden may fail to pass 15% thanks to the low voter pool and those voters mostly being Hispanic, but Biden still gets statewide delegates. Bernie's domination of TX-13 in this scenario wouldn't really dent the statewide numbers, since most of the dem votes come from the four metro areas and the Border.

[Minnesota Mike]

I'm not exactly sure how pledged "Party Leaders and Elected Officials" work when calculating statewide delegates, but I'm assuming they're just part of the regular pool. If not, I'll correct the numbers.

Works out 9-4 either way but the At Large and PLEO pools are calculated separately. Not sure why but that's how they do it.

[Gass3268]

Interesting, based on Green Papers it looks like Biden isn't that far off from tying Sanders for delegates in NV-04.

[Oryxslayer]

Their site seems to have strong cache, so, you need to refresh cache too (usually Shift+ Refresh button on most browsers).

Thanks. I can see it now.

So, since this is updating at an Iowa-esque pace now, might as well take a look at how this most recent batch broke down. Doing only CCDs because I'm lazy:

Bernie 51.7%
Biden 24.6%
Pete 8.7%
Warren 7.3%
Steyer 5.7%
Klob 1.6%

So, even relative to the rest of Clark, this was an exceptionally good batch for Bernie and a bad one for Pete. Here's hoping there's more like it to come.

As someone noted these were the strip caucus's which were very good for Bernie - aka outliers. However, they are heavy outliers, so the dent is felt in the statewide total.

Interesting, based on Green Papers it looks like Biden isn't that far off from tying Sanders for delegates in NV-04.

Well Biden is winning more percents then Bernie in AA North Las Vegas, he's just not doing as hot in the other communities and Bernie isn't that far behind him inside said precincts.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Interesting, based on Green Papers it looks like Biden isn't that far off from tying Sanders for delegates in NV-04.

And Bernie isn't that far off from getting another PLEO delegate from Biden. There are definitely a number of delegates that can't be called yet.

[Gass3268]

Interesting, based on Green Papers it looks like Biden isn't that far off from tying Sanders for delegates in NV-04.

And Bernie isn't that far off from getting another PLEO delegate from Biden. There are definitely a number of delegates that can't be called yet.

Agreed, I have to imagine Buttigieg gets back over 15% statewide once all of the northern part of the state comes in. Will be interesting to see how this all turns out.

[Minnesota Mike]

Interesting, based on Green Papers it looks like Biden isn't that far off from tying Sanders for delegates in NV-04.

And Bernie isn't that far off from getting another PLEO delegate from Biden. There are definitely a number of delegates that can't be called yet.

Biden could also get an AL delegate from Bernie.

[Minnesota Mike]

We are now at 70,614 first alignment votes with 72% precincts in. Turnout under 100K. Pathetic.

[dax00]

Pete has no chance at viability statewide. The weight of Clark county far exceeds that of Washoe et cetera. I expect his statewide percentage to drop even further.

[Minnesota Mike]

Pete has no chance at viability statewide. The weight of Clark county far exceeds that of Washoe et cetera. I expect his statewide percentage to drop even further.

76% of Clark in, 66% of Washoe.  Also all Strip caucuses where Pete got destroyed are in. My guess Buttigieg's percentage goes up from here but not sure if he can reach 15%. He does have a shot though.

[2016]

Pete has no chance at viability statewide. The weight of Clark county far exceeds that of Washoe et cetera. I expect his statewide percentage to drop even further.

76% of Clark in, 66% of Washoe.  Also all Strip caucuses where Pete got destroyed are in. My guess Buttigieg's percentage goes up from here but not sure if he can reach 15%. He does have a shot though.

Lots of Reno still out. I think Pete will hit 15 % Statewide when all is said and done. He is leading Biden everywhere except Clark where Biden is winning big.

[MaxQue]

Another dump, now 87% in.

No changes in delegates, but CD numbers not yet updated.

[○∙◄☻¥tπ[╪AV┼cVê└]

Delegates

District 1: 3 safe Bernie, 1 leading Bernie, 1 safe Biden
District 2: 4 safe Bernie, 2 safe Pete
District 3: 3 safe Bernie, 1 safe Biden, 1 safe Pete, 1 leading Biden (Pete might get)
District 4: 3 safe Bernie, 2 safe Biden, 1 leading Bernie
PLEO: 3 safe Bernie, 1 safe Biden, 1 leading Biden (Pete or Bernie could get)
AL: 4 safe Bernie, 2 safe Biden, 2 leading Bernie (Pete could get one or both, Biden could get 1)

Total:
20 safe Bernie
4 leading Bernie

7 safe Biden
2 leading Biden

3 safe Pete

Note this was based upon 72% reporting numbers

[2016]

Turnout is very bad. Might just hit 100K.

[MaxQue]

Updated CD results see no change in delegates, but Warren is on verge of viability in CD-2.

[dax00]

Pete on 1772 CCD. State wide viability is currently at 1950 CCD, so he is at -178 CCDs from the threshold.

Washoe has 107 precincts left. Precincts in Washoe have averaged 3.683 CCDs. At his current percentage of 17.34% in Washoe, that nets...
107*3.683*0.0234= 9.2 CCDs, far short of the 178 required. The other small counties help, but still fall well short.

There are still 79 precincts to report in Clark county. The average for each precinct has been 8.682 CCDs. At 11.79%, that extrapolates to...
79*8.682*-0.0321= -22 CCDs

You see how impossible this is

[Minnesota Mike]

Turnout is very bad. Might just hit 100K.

This is not meant as a shot at Sanders but are we really going to put major stock in an event were the winner will get about 35,000 votes. That wouldn't win many state legislative elections.

[Devout Centrist]

Turnout is very bad. Might just hit 100K.

This is not meant as a shot at Sanders but are we really going to put major stock in an event were the winner will get about 35,000 votes. That wouldn't win many state legislative elections.

Caucuses suck. People don't want to wait around for 2 hours just for some guy to count them twice.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Latest batch CCDs:

Bernie 45.6%
Biden 21.3%
Pete 13.4%
Warren 10.8%
Steyer 5.3%
Klob 3.6%

Slightly less good for Bernie, but not by much. Pete still far behind.

[jimrtex]

I'm hearing time and time again the DNC should get rid of these Caucuses. It's actually not quite that simple. For example in Iowa to change the Caucus to a Primary there first needs to be a bill passed in the IA State Legislature to do that (and Republicans have a Majority there) and then it needs to be signed by Governor Reynolds to become Law (A POTUS Primary in IA is much more costly than a Caucus so Reynolds would probably veto it).

It's not that simple than you think.

The DNC could take a carrot and a stick approach.

Stick: You can keep your caucus, but you won't be first.

Carrot: You can have a firehouse primary, and take donations from the candidates to pay for it, or get the legislature to pay for it.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Of the 261 precincts left:
- 79 are in Clark (6% of the county total)
- 107 are in Washoe (19%)
- 75 are in the rurals (27%)

So what's left will probably be a bit worse for Bernie and Biden, and a bit better for Pete and Warren. Let's see by how much.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Current results breakdown, to get a sense of what to expect.

Clark:
Bernie 48.7%
Biden 24.4%
Pete 11.8%
Warren 8.6%
Steyer 4.1%
Klob 2.2%

Washoe:
Bernie 44.3%
Biden 7.8%
Pete 17.3%
Warren 17.2%
Steyer 3.6%
Klob 9.8%

Rurals:
Bernie 35.9%
Biden 8.7%
Pete 25.0%
Warren 8.6%
Steyer 10.9%
Klob 10.8%