Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455601326142930948?s=20

That's pretty bad news for McAuliffe.

Very rich and moderately educated so don't worry too much.

But it’s still exceeding 2017 turnout lol. Dems should worry although not exceedingly until we get SWVA reports.

I mean I have been warning everyone that Target Smart is complete garbage and these non NOVA exurbs have had very good turnout for the GOP so far. But I am sure the reason that Chesterfield is beating Henrico so much in turnout is because more Democrats are voting in Chesterfield

I still have no idea why you put Chesterfield at tilt D at a margin of +3 T-Mac.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455601326142930948?s=20

That's pretty bad news for McAuliffe.

Very rich and moderately educated so don't worry too much.

Trump won this town by 45 points.

Ik that, I also have known that these areas in the Hampton/Richmond have been coming out strong for Youngkin . These areas aren't big as NOVA but still maybe like 5% of the vote?

[lfromnj]

Things starting to look very positive for Youngkin:

https://twitter.com/MattEMiller/status/1455607491358769153

Yeah game over that R areas in a D state are at 89% of 2017 turnout when a few D areas have already surpassed 100% turnout...

He’s claiming it’s out of presidential turnout, not 2017, as in on track to exceed 2020 numbers. Doesn’t sound believable lol

oh good catch.  that would be high turnout.  can anyone confirm this? 

There is no way of knowing how good a precinct was for a given candidate in 2020 as Virginia did not allocate its pre-election day votes back to their precincts.

If you want an estimate of %, Kaine for NOVA  and Richmond and shift it like 2 points R, Northam for Hampton Roads /Southside/Shenandoah.

Nothing really gets SW VA though.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/MattEMiller/status/1455607491358769153?s=20

To be clear, I think Youngkin could very well win/people are becoming very bullish on TMac for poor reasons (though for some I think it might be counterbalancing an existing undue bullishness on Youngkin for equally poor reasons), but something is weird with that site. Not sure what "ballots cast" means but there is simply no way that only 1277 ballots were cast in North Beach in 2020 (according to DRA it cast 2507 votes for Senator in 2018) nor any way it was Trump+48 (again according to DRA it was Stewart+9 and Trump+25 in 2016).

It seems as if he is comparing to ED votes in 2020.

[lfromnj]

Another good sign for African American turnout.

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455617366843404289?s=20

Doesn't show much. Its clear there is an important HOD race similar to the Giles/Montgomery district. However there the area is much more partisan with Blacksburg being quite blue and Giles being super red. In Sussex county it is pretty close to 55 D 45 R presidentially. Would be better to see an area like Petersburg.

[lfromnj]

If anyone is wondering how Republican Rockingham county is(at least ancestrally as although it is still very Republican it isn't the reddest)

It didn't even vote for Warner in 08.

[lfromnj]

2020 Exit poll for mod/con/lib.

https://www.cnn.com/election/2020/exit-polls/president/virginia

[lfromnj]

27 % of Voters are Senior Citizens in VA per CNN. Youth Vote only 9 %.

YoungKing YoungKing YoungKing!!!!

Will you cool it with the cultish stuff? We've had enough of that with Trump. No one in this race is a king.

This thread probably has like  1000 posts with the word Trumpkin

[lfromnj]

So in his last pitch McAuliffe had nothing more to say than "Trump bad" and kept bringing up Youngkin's Trump endorsement. Youngkin actually spent his last pitch talking about his policies.

this is blatantly false lol

Youngkins' entire message was CRT = bad and Virginia Public Schools = bad

Uh, no? Did you read his last pitch speech?

Link ?

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/weirddrew55/status/1455675100594905094?s=20
Not to doom but I can establish that a single precinct in Virginia is voting notably to the right of 2017 with more raw votes.

Doesn't include early vote.

[lfromnj]

Note folks doesn't include the early vote although that is fairly minor in SW VA.

[lfromnj]

https://www.vpap.org/electionresults/20211102/office-governor/
VPAP is the best guys. It has live precinct results for ED ballots as well.

[lfromnj]

Apparently Chesterfield has no absentee vote in?

Yeah but we don't know the precincts and VPAP isn't updating them.

[lfromnj]

If TMac won the Arlington early vote 81-17 there is an exactly 0% chance he won Loudoun's 55-45. Sorry.

What should it be then?

[lfromnj]

Well now I'm just confused lol

Kornacki's saying one thing, Wasserman something else... Does anyone actually know who is right? Kornacki even checked with his behind the scenes people it seemed before confirming that.

VPAP shows it as a bunch of random precincts' from Loudoun

[lfromnj]

https://mobile.twitter.com/Redistrict/status/1455680776985620483

[lfromnj]

Guys Richmond county is all in and had a 15 point swing from 2020. The vote numbers seem legit as well !

[lfromnj]

Massive R swing in Loudoun has me genuinely concerned for the entire D ticket

Major confusion about ED vs early vote.

[lfromnj]

Buchanan County all in. Only 2 point R swing

[lfromnj]

York County (Williamsburg suburb) is claimed to be all in from +7 Trump to +24  Youngkin. However turnout seems too low so I think it is an error.

[lfromnj]

Hopefully this will teach Democrats from ever spouting about CRT again.

Republicans are literally the only ones I ever hear talk about it.

Right. I have not heard one Democrat talk about critical race theory unless it is to say that it isn't being taught in K-12 schools. The lies that Republicans tell.

Infact Dems don't talk about because they want to deny it exists as the NEA calls for teaching it nationwide while they collect NEA money.

[lfromnj]

If Youngkin/Sears win hopefully he can work with Chap Petersen to ban CRT being used as the method of teaching.

[lfromnj]

One thing I remember Youngkin saying on his last rally in Loudoun was not only a pledge to ban CRT but also keep advanced mathematics. He also gave a fairly moderate statement in that he understands we still have a dark history.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/EScrimshaw/status/1455688857849143299

LOLOL

[lfromnj]

GA is definitely lean R in 2022 at this point.

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news/atlanta-mom-files-complaint-alleging-daughter-s-grade-school-segregated-n1276584

Here we go