Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

If-T-Mac wins, will Democrats still likely have a trifecta?

Most likely.

So much for the "this is a referendum on Biden" narrative that many have been trying to push.

State-level issues and individual issues and campaigns were always most relevant to this race.

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455601326142930948?s=20

[Vaccinated Russian Bear]

Thread https://twitter.com/Nate_Cohn/status/1455603057006465025

[LimoLiberal]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455601326142930948?s=20

That's pretty bad news for McAuliffe.

[Big Abraham]

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the "early vote" exceed 2017 by quite a bit too? That always skews massively to Democrats. This election could have been over for Youngkin before the real election ever begun.

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455601326142930948?s=20

That's pretty bad news for McAuliffe.

Very rich and moderately educated so don't worry too much.

[Brittain33]

That's pretty bad news for McAuliffe.

High R turnout + High D turnout in Virginia in 2021 = Youngkin needing suburban swing or reversion OR minority swing to win.

[KaiserDave]

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the "early vote" exceed 2017 by quite a bit too? That always skews massively to Democrats. This election could likely have been over for Youngkin before the real election ever begun.

There was much much less early vote in 2017, and much more in person in 2017.

[lfromnj]

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the "early vote" exceed 2017 by quite a bit too? That always skews massively to Democrats. This election could likely have been over for Youngkin before the real election ever begun.

That was expected due to expanded methods of early vote along with Democrats shifting to VBM.

[Holy Unifying Centrist]

It’ll be embarrassing for NSV if Youngkin wins after hours of NSV ejaculating all over the place over limited turnout reports

[Brittain33]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455601326142930948?s=20

That's pretty bad news for McAuliffe.

Very rich and moderately educated so don't worry too much.

Trump won this town by 45 points.

[Non Swing Voter]

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the "early vote" exceed 2017 by quite a bit too? That always skews massively to Democrats. This election could have been over for Youngkin before the real election ever begun.

Well yes it was 200k in 2017 and closing in on 1.2m in 2021 but that's because we didn't have no excuse early voting then.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

If-T-Mac wins, will Democrats still likely have a trifecta?

The giver ship is honestly the part of the trifecta that is most in jeopardy

[It’s so Joever]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455601326142930948?s=20

That's pretty bad news for McAuliffe.

Very rich and moderately educated so don't worry too much.

But it’s still exceeding 2017 turnout lol. Dems should worry although not exceedingly until we get SWVA reports.

[Dr Oz Lost Party!]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455601326142930948?s=20

That's pretty bad news for McAuliffe.

Poquoson counted only 4.8K votes in 2017.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

Also, correct me if I'm wrong, but didn't the "early vote" exceed 2017 by quite a bit too? That always skews massively to Democrats. This election could likely have been over for Youngkin before the real election ever begun.

The early vote was up but less skewed towards Ds than in 2020. Early votes actually aren't historically massively pro-Dem. Absentee ballots were even once upon a time lean Republican (though I understand absentees=/=early votes).

[Non Swing Voter]

That's pretty bad news for McAuliffe.

High R turnout + High D turnout in Virginia in 2021 = Youngkin needing suburban swing or reversion OR minority swing to win.

Yes, lets not forget part of the equation for Youngkin was repressed D turnout, not just suburban swing.  He'll get suburban swing in VA Beach, Chesterfield, etc., but he also needs a turnout differential in a D+10 state.

[roxas11]

While I'm hoping he wins since Youngkin is anti vax by proxy (anti vaccine mandate), a 2 or so point McAuliffe victory is still pathetic for a state like Virginia.

Had you said this a few months ago I would have agreed but the second the media decided to write terry mcauliffe political obituary and start pushing the narrative that he was doomed heading into this election, I now feel that a McAuliffe victory ends looking far more impressive than it ever had any right to be

If McAuliffe does win there is going to be a lot of questions about that now infamous fox news poll showing in 8 point lead for Glenn Youngkin

[lfromnj]

https://twitter.com/ChazNuttycombe/status/1455601326142930948?s=20

That's pretty bad news for McAuliffe.

Very rich and moderately educated so don't worry too much.

But it’s still exceeding 2017 turnout lol. Dems should worry although not exceedingly until we get SWVA reports.

I mean I have been warning everyone that Target Smart is complete garbage and these non NOVA exurbs have had very good turnout for the GOP so far. But I am sure the reason that Chesterfield is beating Henrico so much in turnout is because more Democrats are voting in Chesterfield

I still have no idea why you put Chesterfield at tilt D at a margin of +3 T-Mac.

[BigSerg]

*NSW
https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1455606297647190024?s=20

[CookieDamage]

A win is a win no matter what. A 2 point win is not "pathetic" or a loss. It's a win. Full stop.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

*NSW
https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1455606297647190024?s=20

Based

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

*NSW
https://twitter.com/tencor_7144/status/1455606297647190024?s=20

Based

[BigSerg]

https://twitter.com/MattEMiller/status/1455607491358769153?s=20

[Big Abraham]

While I'm hoping he wins since Youngkin is anti vax by proxy (anti vaccine mandate), a 2 or so point McAuliffe victory is still pathetic for a state like Virginia.

Anti-vax "by proxy"? I know this isn't the thread for political bickering, but this is a surprisingly bad take from you, as you're usually a pretty level-headed poster.