Spanish elections and politics

[Former President tack50]

So, basically Convergencia's newest outfit, after DiL; PDECat and JxCat? Or will this be different somehow?

[Velasco]

So, basically Convergencia's newest outfit, after DiL; PDECat and JxCat? Or will this be different somehow?

The Crida Nacional is aimed to be a political movement that unites the pro-independence people under the leadership of Carles Puigdemont. However, there is an increasing division in the separatist camp. The relationship between premier Carles Puigdemont and deputy premier Oriol Junqieras was already bad a year ago. By that time Puigdemont was convinced by some people (Basque premier Íñigo Urkullu, former regional minister Santi Vila and others) to call a snap election in order to prevent the intervention of central government in Catalonia. But Puigdemont couldn't resist the pressure from ERC , people within his own party and the pro-independence associations (ANC, Ômnium). They considered that calling regional elections after the October 1 'referendum' was a concession to the Spanish state and were pushing for the UDI. The premier could not bear the idea of being called "traitor" by his people and turned back (the infamous"155 silver coins" tweet wrote by ERC deputy Gabriel Rufián did a lot of harm). However ERC has turned to a more moderate and pragmatic stance (broadening social base for independence, abandoning unilateralism)  after the UDI failure, the intervention of central government and the imprisonment of its leader Oriol Junqueras. In contrast Puigdemont and his inner circle remain on a more radical secessionist stance from their base at the Waterloo mansion, near Brussels. Puigdemont took over the PDeCAT in the party convention held in July, relegating moderate leaders like Marta Pascal (she was key in the no-confidence motion: the woman that ousted Rajoy). The party agreed to join the projected new political movement, the Crida Nacional. I believe that PDeCAT will retain party status by now, but this is probably the death of the old Convergéncia*.

*In short:

PDeCAT (Catalan European Democratic Party) is the refundation of the CDC (Democratic Convergence of Catalonia), disbanded in July 2016 at a convention held in Barcelona. Former premier Artur Mas was the last leader of CDC and the iirst leader the new party,.

DiL (Democracy and Freedom) was a coalition between CDC and a minor party called Democrats of Catalonia (splitted from UDC) for the 2015 Spanish general election. CDC ran in its own in the 2016 general election.

JxCAT (Together for Catalonia) was a coalition between the PDeCAT, CDC (which retained legal registration despite refoundation, allowing JxCAT to get time in TV) and independents to contest the December 2017 regional election. Actually it was a personal vehicle for Puigdemont, who placed like-minded independents in top positions marginalizing PDeCAT members.

The battle between the new Crida Nacional and ERC in next year's local elections promises to be tough.

[Velasco]

ERC announced that Oriol Junqueras will be candidate for the EP elections. A party spokesman dismissed the possibility of a joint pro-independence list, arguing that ERC and JxCAT/Crida get better results when they run in their own. Junqueras is the ERC leader and was the deputy premier in Puigdemont's government. He is in preventive detention since November 2017.

Previously the spokeswoman of the Catalan government Elsa Artadi supported a joint list for theEuropean Parliament and the Barcelona City Hall, suggesting that JxCAT/Crida would accept that Junqueras tops the EP list. Artadi is economist and one of the top persons in JxCAT. Formerly in the PDeCAT, she's now an independent and a Puigdemont loyal.

As said above, ERC is unwilling to dissolve in a coalition. Besides the candidacy of Junqueras, ERC nominated Ernest Maragall candidate for Mayor of Barcelona. Maragall was in the PSC and is brother of former Catalan premier and Mayor of Barcelona Pasqual Maragall. JxCAT/Crida have no candidate yet. Possible candidates are former regional ministers Ferran Mscarell (also a former PSC member), Neus Munté and Joaquim Forn (both PDeCAT, formerly CDC). Polls are consistently placing ERC ahead of the heirs of Convergència (PDeCAT, JxCAT, Crida, whatever).

PDeCAT chairman David Bonvehí says there will be a consult to the membership on the way they will coalesce in the Crida Nacional.

[Velasco]

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Ernest Maragall interviewed by Stephen Sackur (Hard Talk, BBC). Great

https://www.youtube.com/watch?time_continue=641&v=vUzu8UUbvGA&fbclid=IwAR0du2cTPwOcXNT65m8Sgo0LrnWieZtks8aYr9pgJwIBBbCoQFM41OWCXi0

[Former President tack50]

Apparently the full list of parties that will run in the Andalusian election is out. However this is just a preliminary list, many of them will eventually be discarded. Still, the parties and coalitions that have at least registered to run are:

Running in all 8 provinces

Partido Socialista Obrero Español. (PSOE-A)
Partido Popular.  (PP-A)
Coalición Adelante Andalucía (Podemos-Izquierda Unida-Primavera Andaluza-Izquierda Andalucista)
Ciudadanos Partido de la Ciudadanía. (Cs)

Vox.
Partido Animalista Contra el Maltrato Animal. (PACMA)
Coalición Equo Verdes-Iniciativa Andalucía.
Unión Progreso y Democracia. (UPyD)
Andalucía por el Si. (AxSí)
Partido Comunista del Pueblo Andaluz. (PCPA)

Running only in certain provinces

Coalición Recortes Cero-Por un Mundo más Justo-Grupo Verde.
Coalición Conecta Andalucía (Partido Agora de Andalucía-Partido Integro de Centro Democrático).
Coalición Unidos por la Democracia (Unidos Si-Democracia Efectiva)
Coalición Socialistas por el Cambio 15M (Cambiar si se puede-Podemos 15M).
Convergencia Andaluza.
Nación Andaluza. (NA)
Ciudadanos Libres Unidos.
Ciudadanos Libres Unidos-Linares.
Partido Republicano Independiente Solidario Andaluz. (Partido RISA)
Alternativa Republicana. (ALTER)
Escaño en Blanco.
Izquierda Anticapitalista Revolucionaria. (IZAR)
Partido Comunista de los Pueblos de España.
Partido Comunista Obrero Español.
Partido Comunista de los Trabajadores y las Trabajadoras de España
Soluciona.
Respeto.
Falange Española de las Jons.
Independientes de Huelva (IxH)


The first block (in colour) are the ones that will almost certainly get seats. The underlined ones are the ones that won't get seats but have a chance of breaking 1%. Everyone else won't even break 1%

Of the minor lists running in all 8 provinces, the most interesting ones are Vox and PACMA obviously because of the national implications.

AxSí (and the other minor Andalusian nationalist lists) might also be interesting to watch just to see how dead Andalusian nationalism is. AxSí is the spiritual successor to the old Andalusian Party (PA) dissolved in 2016. Same with UPyD, it might be interesting to see just how dead are they.

As for the extremely small lists running only in certain provinces, I don't think any of them is all that interesting tbh.

If you care about minor parties, there's an interesting split between PCPE and PCPA, both far left tankie style communists and there's been a split in the national party (they can't agree on a party leader) so apparently they are running 2 different parties (an achievement for a party that gets 0.1% of the vote).

Other than that there are several communist parties, several nationalist parties (which I did mention could be interesting), several far right parties, and a couple parties I know nothing about

[bigic]

"Coalición Socialistas por el Cambio 15M (Cambiar si se puede-Podemos 15M)" seems like a Podemos splinter?

[Former President tack50]

Honestly looking them up on the internet it seems there's almost no information about them. The only site where they were described claimed that it's actually a PSOE splinter and a coalition between 2 parties: Cambiar Si Se Puede and Podemos15M (which apparently is not the same as regular Podemos)

In any case, super tiny parties can get real confusing, real fast; I wouldn't read much (if anything) into them.

In local elections they can be fun to read into but they never have real implications for the most part.

Plus, keep in mind that many of these will actually be rejected for one reason or another. When I did this for the Catalan regional election of the 10 or so tiny parties that ran only like 3 were actually on the ballot.

Granted that election was under unusual circumstances but I'd still expect around half of those lists to not be on the ballot. Especially the weirder ones that appeared out of thin air and that I know nothing about.

[MaxQue]

I'm surprised UPyD is still kicking around. Why voting for them when C's exist?

[Former President tack50]

I'm surprised UPyD is still kicking around. Why voting for them when C's exist?

No real reason honestly. I guess people who are pro Spanish union but more progressive and leftist than Cs? (they've moved to the right in recient times)

UPyD is just in zombie form anyways though, it will eventually dissolve slowly into oblivion, kind of like CDS back on the day. UPyD's last chance (and an incredibly remote one at that) is the 2019 EU election but they almost certainly won't get a chance.

[Velasco]

AxSí (and the other minor Andalusian nationalist lists) might also be interesting to watch just to see how dead Andalusian nationalism is. AxSí is the spiritual successor to the old Andalusian Party (PA) dissolved in 2016. 

AxSÍ is clearly borrowing its name from Catalan separatists: see Junts pel Sí (JxSÍ) and Catalunya Sí (a coalition led by ERC). This might lead to confusion in what regard the goals of these Andalusian nationalists. From what I'm reading in their political manifesto, they are not calling for the independence of Andalusia. They advocate for the full development of self-government, federalism, multinational state, etcetera.

Nación Andaluza ("Andalusian Nation", NA) is openly separatist. According to the party's web page, NA is pro-independence, socialist and feminist. It's also a "sovereigntist, anti-capitalist and anti-imperialist collectivity" and its goal is to achieve "the national liberation of our Country and the social liberation of our People".

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This split continues a long established tradition in far -left parties. The Communist Party of the Spanish People (PCPE) is an old splinter of the Communist Party of Spain (PCE) founded in 1984. I met secretary general Carmelo Suárez years ago, because he was living in the same estate that some old friend of mine. Suárez is architect and I think he and the fathers of my friend had a cooperative housing society. Long live Marx and Lenin!

 

[Former President tack50]

Yeah AxSí, even if it tries to borrow from Junts x Si in Catalonia, is actually a nationalist but unionist party, much like the old PA; or like CC in the Canary Islands; nothing like ERC and PDECat.

NA is the true secessionsist party.

[Velasco]

I don't know if the AxSÍ party is more or less nationalist than the old PA, which was a centre-left regionalist party. Personally I'd use the word "regionalist" rather than "unionist" to characterize this kind of regional parties because: a) "unionist" has some "centralist" connotation (Cs and UPyD would fit perfectly here, while Vox would be extreme unionist"); b) there are regional parties that are not openly separatist but are somewhat sovereigntist (Compromís and Catalunya en Comú come to my mind). Also, there are regional parties with little to none sovereigntist elements (CC*, PRC, UPN...). I think AxSI does not fit in the last category because its manifesto has mentions to "federalism" and the "multinational state" (estado plurinacional).

In any case, prior to 1984 the PA was called Socialist Alliance of Andalusia and later Socialist Party of Andalusia (PSA, from 1979 to 1984). There is a curious fact: the PSA contested the first Catalan election held in 1980, getting 2.66% of the vote and winning 2 seats in Barcelona province. The PSA/PA did not contest subsequent Catalan elections, but a winning seats in 1980 indicates the importance of Andalusian immigration in Catalonia. There were 840k Andalusians living in Catalonia in the early 70s and currently there are 1.1 million of people of Andalusian heritage living there. Catalonia is called sometimes the "9th Andalusian province"

Because of the above mentioned, the political crisis in Catalonia is going to be (presumably) an important issue in the Andalusian campaign. Especially in the case of the Cs campaign, because the leader of the oranges in Catalonia Inés Arrimadas was born in Andalusia (Jerez de la Frontera) and the Cs leader Albert Rivera is a Catalan with Andalusian ancestry. Both Rivera and Arrimadas are going to campaign in support of low-profile candidate Juan Marín. The Andalusian election is very important to Cs in its aim to replace the PP as the main party of the Spanish centre-right and the main alternative to PSOE in the southern region.

*_{Actually there are a few sovereigntist and nationalist elements in CC, that is a heterogeneous coalition of regional and insular parties. Anyway, CC is above all a regional interests party and is far from being a threat to the unity of Spain.}

[Former President tack50]

Today the proposed punishments for the Catalan secessionist leaders have been published, and there's a split between the Solicitor General's Office (which directly responds to the Spanish government) and the Attorney General's office (which is independent from the Sánchez government). No idea if this kind of split is common or not, but it was to be somewhat expected

The proposed punishments from each judicial organization are:

Attorney General (generally harsher, it does accuse them of rebellion)

Oriol Junqueras (Deputy premier and regional minister of Economics): Head of Rebellion and public fund misuse. 25 years in prison and another 25 years of political inhabilitation (where he can't have any elected office)

Jordi Sánchez (leader of the secessionist organization ANC): Head of Rebellion. 17 years in prison and 17 years of inhabilitation

Jordi Cuixart (leader of the secessionsit organization Ómnium): Head of Rebellion. 17 years in prison and 17 years barred from public office

Carme Forcadell (president of the catalan parliament): Head of Rebellion. 17 years in prison and 17 years barred from public office

Jordi Turull (speaker of the Catalan government): Rebellion and public fund misuse. 16 years in prison and 16 years barred from public office

Raul Romeva (regional minister of foreign affairs): Rebellion and public fund misuse. 16 years in prison and 16 years barred from public office

Joaquim Forn (regional minister of the interior): Rebellion and public fund misuse. 16 years in prison and 16 years barred from public office

Josep Rull (regional minister of territory and sustainability): Rebellion and public fund misuse. 16 years in prison and 16 years barred from public office

Dolors Bassa (regional minister of labour, social affairs and family): Rebellion and public fund misuse. 16 years in prison and 16 years barred from public office

Carles Mundo (regional minister of justice): Public fund misuse and disobedience. 7 years in prison, 16 years barred from public office and a 10 month fine.

Meritchell Borrás (regional minister of government, public administrations and housing). Public fund misuse and disobedience. 7 years in prison, 16 years barred from public office and 10 month fine

Santiago Vila (regional minster of business, resigned shortly before the UDI). Public fund misuse and disobedience. 7 years in prison, 16 years barred from public office and 10 month fine

6 other politicians were charged with disobedience and punished with a 10 month fine and 1 year and 8 months barred from public office

Solicitor General's office (generally more lenient, the ones accused of rebellion are accused of sedition instead)

Oriol Junqueras: 12 years in prison

Carme Forcadell: 10 years in prison

Jordi Cuixart and Jordi Sánchez: 8 years in prison

Jordi Turull, Raul Romeva, Joaquim Forn, Josep Rull, Dolors Bassa: 11 and a half years in prison

Carles Mundo, Meritxell Borras, Santiago Vila: Still 7 years in prison, but only 7 more years barred from public office

For the other 6 processed people for only disobedience, the punishment is still the same except for Mireia Boya (speaker of CUP in the catalan parliament) and Joan Jusep Nuet (member of the parliament table, who decides schedules and when and what to vote, appointed by Podemos), who are only charged with 8 months barred from public office.

[Velasco]

The government is being attacked from all sides. The Spanish Right claims treason, while Catalan separatists say that they are disappointed

https://elpais.com/elpais/2018/11/02/inenglish/1541146388_493726.html

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Right now ERC and PDeCAT are unwilling to vote the budget and it seems difficult that they change their minds. Trial against Catalan separatist leaders begins in January; political climate won't favour agreements. The Pedro Sánchez government is already in a weak position. With no budget and attacked from two sides, holding on government means constant wear. With these bleak picture, we cannot rule out general elections in May. 

[Former President tack50]

I personally hope the general election doesn't take place at the same time as the EU/local elections.

A mega-election with literally everything possible on the ballot seems like a bad idea to me and will lead to "coattails" instead of each position being considered individually.

I'd personally favour either an election in March (if the budget fails) or in Autumn 2019 (if the budget somehow succeeds)

But yeah, the climate doesn't seem leading to agreements. I can see Sánchez getting Podemos and PNV quite easilly. Maybe Bildu/CC as well but they aren't decisive. However the decisive votes of ERC and PDECat seem hard to get.

[Michael19754]

This could backfire on the separatists. If an early election is called and PP and C's win a majority, they better get ready...

[Velasco]

This could backfire on the separatists. If an early election is called and PP and C's win a majority, they better get ready...

That would be a gloomy prospect, IMO. In case PP and Cs win a majority and implement direct rule in Catalonia again, but in a harsher way, then it'd be better that Spain gets ready. I think it's obvious that the course of action proposed by the Spanish Right won't address the real problem: the existence of separatist feelings in Catalonia. I have the impression that repressive measures would be bad for the unity of Spain in the mid term. As far as I know, neither Casado nor Rivera are proposing any kind of measure that could lead to a meaningful solution to the Catalan conundrum. For instance, Casado could not claim that banning separatist parties will end separatism without insulting intelligence.

[Velasco]

In case separatists chhose again frontal collision and the "wose is better" strategy, that could backfire on them. The escalation of the conflict would affect Catalonia in all respects: struggling economy, increasing social tension and so on. The srustration caused by dashed illusions is potentially very dangerous.

[Former President tack50]

Yep, a PP-Cs majority (or worse, a PP-Cs minority depending on Vox) is probably the worst case scenario for secessionists unless they plan on accelarationism, or like Rajoy said: "The better for you the worse, and the worse for you, the better".

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=glMm5w7K4Yg

That was a gaffe back on the day but it actually sums up the Spanish right and the Catalan secessionists quite nicely

Speaking of Rajoy, I remember reading an article in El Mundo where the people who actually activated and dealt with article 155 (the Rajoy cabinet and people close to him) are disappointed about the parties policies in Catalonia.

Whereas Rajoy hesitated a lot on applying article 155, and applied it only as a last resort and only after thinking about it for a long time and negotiating a broad consensus, nowadays Casado's PP and Cs want to activate it for no reason adding fuel to the fire while PSOE is way too lenient on Catalonia.

Here's the article:

https://www.elmundo.es/espana/2018/10/28/5bd4c007e5fdea4e178b45db.html

[Michael19754]

Anyways, the root of all this are the punishments that the prosecutors are seeking. In my opinion they are completely ridiculous. 25 years for organizing a referendum that resulted in nothing but symbolism? I wouldn't be surprised if Patrick Nogueira (who killed several memebers of his family) gets a shorter sentence. I get the embezzlement charges, the money came out of somewhere, but rebellion?

[MaxQue]

Anyways, the root of all this are the punishments that the prosecutors are seeking. In my opinion they are completely ridiculous. 25 years for organizing a referendum that resulted in nothing but symbolism? I wouldn't be surprised if Patrick Nogueira (who killed several memebers of his family) gets a shorter sentence. I get the embezzlement charges, the money came out of somewhere, but rebellion?

Insecure Castillans need to prove their culture is superior by oppressing other cultures.

[Velasco]

Catalan separatist leaders breached the law. I think that the 'disconnection law' passed by the Parliament of Catalonia in September 2017 and the unilateral declaration of independence in October 2017 are more serious breaches than the referendum itself. As I see it, the vote held on October 1 was merely symbolic, a big demonstration of people demanding a real referendum of independence. But the so-called 'disconnection law' was aimed to provide some cover to the process of secession from Spain. Separatists put themselves outside the law, unilaterally and lacking of popular legitimacy (pro-independence parties represent 47.5% of voters). The unilateral declaration of independence on October 27 was a tragic nonsense (there was a sharp contrast that day between the somber atmosphere inside the parliament and the people waiting outside). Separatist leaders later claimed that the declaration was merely symbolic and they were kidding around (according to Clara Ponsatí), but they knew that article 155 was ready to be implemented and feared the legal consequences of their actions.

 It's obvious that the Judiciary must act when legality is breached, but implementing the principle of proportionality. I too believe that the charge of rebellion and the 25 years are disproportionate. Also, the recurring claim of the Spanish Right and associate media is ridicolous: they should turn to a dictionary, because what happened a year ago in Catalonia wasn't a coup. But beaching the law must have consequences, so the people involved in past year's events must be accused of something. Opposition parties are pressing from opposite sides: the Spanish Right cries "coup" and "rebellion", separatists demand absolution. I think it's clear the government is not handling well rhis convoluted situation.

I believe that any kind of political solution will have to involve pardon for the separatist leaders. The problem is that a heavy and disproportionate punishment will make a political solution very difficult. 

[Former President tack50]

Well we were a bit overdue for polls so here we have 3 new ones:

IBES for Balearic Islands regional elections



Yeah, basically confirms that the Balearic Islands regional election is a tossup, and that it will most likely depend on PI (centre-right nationalists) to either put PP back in power or keep premier Armengol for 4 more years.

Worth noting that UM (PI's spiritual predecessor) supported both PSOE-left nationalist governments in the 00s as well as PP governments in the 80s and 90s.

Also worth noting that the last time a Balearic Islands government was reelected was all the way in 1995; since then no premier has served more than a single consecutive term

Celeste Tel-Eldiario.es for Andalusian regional elections



Stil safe PSOE. A terrible poll for Cs though, who barely goes up from 2015, and a really good one for PSOE and PP, to the point where PSOE actually gains in the popular vote!

GESOP-El Periódico de Catalunya for general elections



2nd poll in a row that shows Vox around 4%. Maybe their rise is real? Worth noting that if they get 5 seats and 5% of the vote they gain the right to their own parliamentary group instead of going to the mixed group, which grants them longer parliamentary speeches, and the like*

For the rest, good result for PSOE (GESOP is quite PSOE leaning though) and for Cs, who narrowly edge out PP

Honestly if these kinds of results with Vox way up are real it makes me wonder how large they would be if PP had gone with the more moderate Soraya Sáenz de Santamaría instead of the further right Casado as party leader. Would we be speaking of them breaking 7%?

^{*Keep in mind that if Vox falls narrowly short (say 4 seats and 4.x% of the vote), it's far from uncommon for parliamentary groups to agree to give them a group for them by bending the rules. A good example is UPyD in 2011 who narrowly fell short of the 5% required for a parliamentary group, but got one anyways. On the other hand, if the people in charge of parliament are feeling strict they can also not bend the rules (like Amaiur 2011 or PDECat 2016, neither of whom got a parliamentary group even if they also fell barely short)}

[Velasco]

Cs held a political event today in a town called Alsasua (Altsasu in Basque), located in the north of Navarre. Albert Rivera achieved an unprecedented feat: uniting the parties of the right and the far-right (Cs,PP and Vox) in defense of the Constitution, the Unity of Spain and the Guardia Civil.

Two years ago, two members of the Guardia Civil (Spanish military police) were attacked by a group of young radical nationalists in a bar. The policemen were beaten and insulted at night in the town centre; they were out of service and having a drink with their partners. The attackers were sentenced to prison on terms hanging from 2 and 13 years. The judges didn't find evidence of terrorism or links to ETA, but considered other aggravating circumstances such as abuse of superiority and ideological hatred. The sentence was deemed excessive by relatives and neighbours, whom consider the incidents were only a tavern fight. There were some protests.

Albert Rivera spoke only 50 meters away from the scene, protected by a strong police force from a thousand radical Basque nationalists. The Cs leader proclaimed that "here in Alsasua constitutionalism can be reinforced and sanchismo weakened", inviting attendants to "shake hands around the constitution" to stop the evil Pedro Sánchez.

Protesters made noise to sabotage the event, ringing the bells of the town church (without priest permission) while an ETA victim was speaking. The night before someone left dung in the event's place. Police agents escorted Cs members and the rest of attendants, while a group of Alsasua neighbours put themselves between the radical protesters and the riot police to keep peace.

A couple of PP officials and Vox leader Santiago Abascal attended the event. Some PSOE official said that the event "exacerbates conflict", while the Alsasua mayor (Geroa Bai) deemed it as a "provocation"

https://elpais.com/politica/2018/11/04/actualidad/1541327690_538842.html

Altsasu/Alsasua has a population of around 7,000 . It's located next to the Basque border in a Basque speaking area and Basque nationalist parties are strong there.

Results of the 2015 local elections in Alsasua:

Nafarroa Bai-Geroa Bai 36.8% 5 councilors
EH Bildu 21.4% 3 councilors
PSOE 13.5% 2 councilors
Goazen Altsasu (likely Podemos outfit) 12.3% 2 councilors
UPN 6.6% 1 councilor

Mayor: Javier Ollo (Geroa Bai)

[Former President tack50]

The mortgage tax saga has finally ended.

Since I don't think anyone has spoken about it, basically it goes like this:

First, a Spanish Supreme Court ruling claimed that banks would be responsible to pay a mortgage related tax, and that ruling would start applying with effect in all of Spain and probably retroactively. However the next day the Supreme court suspended the ruling to re-evaluate it, in something unprecedented. Yesterday, the Supreme Court met and decided that the customers would now be the ones responsible for paying the tax and not banks. Finally, today the Spanish government announced a law-decree changing the mortgage law to overturn that ruling

https://elpais.com/economia/2018/11/08/actualidad/1541679667_089777.html

This certainly doesn't help make Spanish courts more believable and harms their reputation quite a bit.

Also, a plan to murder PM Pedro Sánchez by a lone wolf was discovered today. I don't think the murder would have been successful at all but still worth noting that maybe polarization has consequences.

If murdered, Pedro Sánchez would become the first murdered PM since PM Carrero Blanco in 1973 (during the last few years of the dictatorship). Worth noting that Aznar had a failed assassination attempt by ETA in 1995 though he was not the PM at the time

https://elpais.com/ccaa/2018/11/08/catalunya/1541663459_738366.html