Democratic MI/MS election results thread (first results @8pm ET)

[Mehmentum]

I have a feeling this could end up like Massachusetts - Clinton was supposed to romp there, and it ended up being very close. That said, I think she will have a decisive win, at least 52 to 48.

RCP's average in Massachusets was Clinton +6.7, it was off by about 5 points.
RCP's average in Michigan is Clinton +21.4.  There's no comparison.

The reason a lot of people though MA was going to be a blowout was because it seemed like Clinton had momentum.  Later polls were more favorable to her than earlier ones, and Clinton had just won huge in SC.  In hindsight, constructing momentum narratives out of just a few polls turned out not to be that accurate.

[Mehmentum]

20% of the electorate being African American is good for Clinton.  For reference, Virginia was at 26%.  Though to be fair Clinton also won Virginia whites by 15 points, so Michigan could very well be closer.

[Mehmentum]

20% of the electorate being African American is bad good for Clinton.  For reference, Virginia was at 26%.  Though to be fair Clinton also won Virginia whites by 15 points, so Michigan could very well be closer.

bad good?

Good.  Fixed.

[Mehmentum]

Has anybody been keeping track of how closely this has tracked with the Clinton and Sanders vote?

Only half wanting to continue Obama policies is quote lower than it's been in a lot of recent states that asked this.  

I don't believe it is.

Last I heard is the swath of Southern states where this number was almost 3/4's.

Well, Iowa had more people than this wanting to continue Obama's policies, but Nevada and Massachusetts had fewer people than this wanting to continue Obama's policies.  I'm not sure how high the correlation is.

[Mehmentum]

If 6 in 10 did, in fact, say that is the most important quality like ABC claimed then this might be quite closer than we think.  

6 in 10 said either 'Honest and Trustworthy' or 'Cares About People Like Me' were their most important quality.