Democratic MI/MS election results thread (first results @8pm ET)

[The Free North]

Ryan Struyk ‏@ryanstruyk  2m2 minutes ago
Six in 10 Mississippi Democratic primary voters are black per preliminary exit poll results, which would be a record if it holds. #MSprimary

6 in 10 would be a record?  That's actually surprising.

Blacks were a majority in MS (and SC) in the early days of the Republic....but they obviously could not vote then so it didnt matter.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

MI:

52% of MI Dems want to continue Obama's policies
36% want more liberal policies
12% want less liberal policy

[Mr. Morden]

From CNN TV:

MS
white 34%
black 61%

MI
white 69%
black 22%

[Eraserhead]

MS sounds like a mega-massacre as expected.

[Ebsy]

MI:

52% of MI Dems want to continue Obama's policies
36% want more liberal policies
12% want less liberal policy

This number got revised quite a bit in Tennessee by the time the final exits came out.

[bilaps]

I have a feeling this could end up like Massachusetts - Clinton was supposed to romp there, and it ended up being very close. That said, I think she will have a decisive win, at least 52 to 48.

Um... MA was always going to be close?

I think this really is a case of margins. This is a big delegate state and a strong Clinton result will really screw Sanders leading into 15 March. I do think a 12-16% win is reasonable to expect. Anything closer than that Sanders will call a moral win, bigger than than... unlikely, but really hurts Sanders with similar states coming up.

MI is a state that Bernie needed to win even before he severely underperformed in the South. Which means he needs to win it even more now, and by a sizable margin. A Hillary win of any size would not be any type of victory, moral or otherwise.

 Iowa like win tonight in Michigan would actually be very very bad for her

Iowa is actually a great example of what I'm talking about. That was supposed to be a double digit win for Bernie based on the demographics. The fact that it was actually so close was a coup for her.

Of course, if you're arguing about media narratives and momentum, you have a point.

But you can't base everything on demographics. In no way he was favourite there by double digits because you have to weigh everything else like establishment support, name recognition, experienced campaign machine etc.

[Mr. Morden]

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Definitely good for Sanders and Trump.

[Fusionmunster]

Definitely good for Sanders and Trump.

I feel like if you asked that question in any state you'd get similar results.

[Wiz in Wis]

20% of the electorate being African American is bad good for Clinton.  For reference, Virginia was at 26%.  Though to be fair Clinton also won Virginia whites by 15 points, so Michigan could very well be closer.

bad good?

[Mehmentum]

20% of the electorate being African American is bad good for Clinton.  For reference, Virginia was at 26%.  Though to be fair Clinton also won Virginia whites by 15 points, so Michigan could very well be closer.

bad good?

Good.  Fixed.

[Pouring Rain and Blairing Music]

Definitely good for Sanders and Trump.

I feel like if you asked that question in any state you'd get similar results.

I think it's more relevant in a state like Michigan that has lost a lot of manufacturing jobs.

[Mr. Morden]

[Eraserhead]

Yeah, she might crack 80% there tonight.

[RJEvans]

I'm hoping she can keep a 10-point margin in MI. Looking good for Sanders though.

[Mr. Morden]

http://abcnews.go.com/Politics/live-democrats-exit-poll-analysis/story?id=37493541

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[ElectionsGuy]

Looks pretty bad for Sanders in Michigan. Hoping for upset (and by upset I mean Clinton winning by single digits) but unlikely. Mississippi should be a thrashing and Clinton's best state.

[RJEvans]

Looks pretty bad for Sanders in Michigan. Hoping for upset (and by upset I mean Clinton winning by single digits) but unlikely. Mississippi should be a thrashing and Clinton's best state.

Why would you think it's bad? I think it's looking good. Not winning good but enough to close the gap.

[Averroës Nix]

Definitely good for Sanders and Trump.

I feel like if you asked that question in any state you'd get similar results.

I think it's more relevant in a state like Michigan that has lost a lot of manufacturing jobs.

The amazing thing about this result is that (A) both parties have pretty much the same split on a high-profile political issue and (B) a pretty decisive majority within both parties is skeptical of not only trade agreements, but of international trade more generally.

Granted, I don't know whether this finding would hold in most other states. I suspect that it would, but by a reduced margin.

[Eraserhead]

Looks pretty bad for Sanders in Michigan. Hoping for upset (and by upset I mean Clinton winning by single digits) but unlikely. Mississippi should be a thrashing and Clinton's best state.

Why would you think it's bad? I think it's looking good. Not winning good but enough to close the gap.

Yeah, that's my thinking too. Of course, early exits are notoriously unreliable.

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Looks pretty bad for Sanders in Michigan. Hoping for upset (and by upset I mean Clinton winning by single digits) but unlikely. Mississippi should be a thrashing and Clinton's best state.

Why would you think it's bad? I think it's looking good. Not winning good but enough to close the gap.

Yeah, that's my thinking too. Of course, early exits are notoriously unreliable.

Let's just hope he gets a nice chunk of delegates out of MI and the GOP continues to spiral into oblivion. 

[Ebsy]

Do exit polls reflect early voting at all?

[Starbucks Union Thug HokeyPuck]

Do exit polls reflect early voting at all?

Negative, ghost rider.

[Mr. Morden]

Do exit polls reflect early voting at all?

Negative, ghost rider.

Actually, they do in the general election, at least for certain states where the early vote is large:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2008/10/29/early-voting-and-exit-polls/?_r=0

They do a telephone poll just before the election, and ask people if they've early voted, to try to capture the early vote portion in the exit poll.  I would assume they do that in the primaries too, but I don't know.

[Eraserhead]

Yeah, if Clinton ends up winning MI by a large margin, I'm guessing that absentees will have played an important role in it.