PA, bite me.
They're both pretty similar, but Josh Shapiro is the single most overrated candidate this cycle thus far. He's a very partisan Dem who has very little demonstrated crossover appeal, overperforming Biden by 3 against a poorly known opponent. In addition, Tom Wolf is even more unpopular than Whitmer is right now, and he's served alongside him and has to defend his record. It's just not realistic to think he's going to do much better than Whitmer.
I agree Shapiro is overrated but Craig is easily one of the strongest recruits of the cycle. Hes a former Democrat and could use that card to appeal to traditionally d but r trending groups. With his sheriff background, he can beat his chest about law and order in a climate where crime is high. Mastriano on the other hand is a dreadful candidate. Lake, Masters, Oz can say they are political outsiders because they weren't in elected office before, Mastriano can't do that. Hes got the worst elements of Lake,, Laxalt etc.. with few of the positives. Other than being a veteran he's got nothing. Also, every other Democrat on the ticket in PA underperformed Biden to the point they lost, so I don't think you can dismiss Shapiro overperforming Biden in a year where Generic D did worse in most places.
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