Which race are Republicans more likely to win, PA-GOV or MI-GOV?

[MT Treasurer]

I’d say MI, but narrowly.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

MI and its not even close. I think GOP wins both though

[SnowLabrador]

MI and its not even close. I think GOP wins both though

[ElectionsGuy]

PA, bite me.

They're both pretty similar, but Josh Shapiro is the single most overrated candidate this cycle thus far. He's a very partisan Dem who has very little demonstrated crossover appeal, overperforming Biden by 3 against a poorly known opponent. In addition, Tom Wolf is even more unpopular than Whitmer is right now, and he's served alongside him and has to defend his record. It's just not realistic to think he's going to do much better than Whitmer.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

PA, bite me.

They're both pretty similar, but Josh Shapiro is the single most overrated candidate this cycle thus far. He's a very partisan Dem who has very little demonstrated crossover appeal, overperforming Biden by 3 against a poorly known opponent. In addition, Tom Wolf is even more unpopular than Whitmer is right now, and he's served alongside him and has to defend his record. It's just not realistic to think he's going to do much better than Whitmer.

I agree Shapiro is overrated but Craig is easily one of the strongest recruits of the cycle. Hes a former Democrat and could use that card to appeal to traditionally d but r trending groups. With his sheriff background,  he can beat his chest about law and order in a climate where crime is high. Mastriano on the other hand is a dreadful candidate. Lake, Masters, Oz can say they are political outsiders because they weren't in elected office before, Mastriano can't do that. Hes got the worst elements of Lake,, Laxalt etc.. with few of the positives. Other than being a veteran he's got nothing. Also, every other Democrat on the ticket in PA underperformed Biden to the point they lost, so I don't think you can dismiss Shapiro overperforming Biden in a year where Generic D did worse in most places.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Neither, the ME poll in conjunction with GCB shows were gonna hold the 278 or 303 blue wall, we're up by Three by Political Tracking on GCB and Biden is tracking 45/50 we won 50/45 anyways but Turnout may be high 135 K which means wave insurance, partisan trends in IA and OH aren't the same as in Prez because Trump voters don't come out like they do in Prez Election they turned out in VA but didn't turnout in Cali recall Steve Konraki said so

We have beaten Rs on the GCB in every Election except for 2010/14 and 2010 was 11 percent unemployment

I don't know why Rs think they're the majority last time it was 80/75 M, D's are the Majority

We dominate every state except Mnt W and FL and TX
Shapiro is our strongest recruit aside from Mark Kelly

[Kahane's Grave Is A Gender-Neutral Bathroom]

PA, bite me.

They're both pretty similar, but Josh Shapiro is the single most overrated candidate this cycle thus far. He's a very partisan Dem who has very little demonstrated crossover appeal, overperforming Biden by 3 against a poorly known opponent. In addition, Tom Wolf is even more unpopular than Whitmer is right now, and he's served alongside him and has to defend his record. It's just not realistic to think he's going to do much better than Whitmer.

It's not that Shapiro is strong but that Mastriano is an insane extremist. With the suburban-heavy environment midterms usually are, that could be a tough sell.

[Tekken_Guy]

Craig is not guaranteed to be the R nominee in MI. He’s not a shoo-in for the Trump endorsement and his momentum has been fading recently.

[Shaula🏳️‍⚧️]

Both are Safe D because Craig and Mastriano are unelectable extremists. Republicans are much more likely to hold MD-GOV if they nominate a reasonable moderate.

Craig isn't an extremist LMAO. He's a Generic R

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Both are Safe D because Craig and Mastriano are unelectable extremists. Republicans are much more likely to hold MD-GOV if they nominate a reasonable moderate.

Craig isn't an extremist LMAO. He's a Generic R

Is your sarcasm detector not working?

[wbrocks67]

PA, bite me.

They're both pretty similar, but Josh Shapiro is the single most overrated candidate this cycle thus far. He's a very partisan Dem who has very little demonstrated crossover appeal, overperforming Biden by 3 against a poorly known opponent. In addition, Tom Wolf is even more unpopular than Whitmer is right now, and he's served alongside him and has to defend his record. It's just not realistic to think he's going to do much better than Whitmer.

This isn't true at all, but okay.

And Heidelbaugh was the same level as Garrity, and Garrity still won. Both were awful candidates, Garrity was even more fringe than Heidelbaugh was. Shapiro got more votes than Joe Biden did in PA. You sound bitter.

[coloradocowboi]

PA, bite me.

They're both pretty similar, but Josh Shapiro is the single most overrated candidate this cycle thus far. He's a very partisan Dem who has very little demonstrated crossover appeal, overperforming Biden by 3 against a poorly known opponent. In addition, Tom Wolf is even more unpopular than Whitmer is right now, and he's served alongside him and has to defend his record. It's just not realistic to think he's going to do much better than Whitmer.

This isn't true at all, but okay.

And Heidelbaugh was the same level as Garrity, and Garrity still won. Both were awful candidates, Garrity was even more fringe than Heidelbaugh was. Shapiro got more votes than Joe Biden did in PA. You sound bitter.

Not to mention he definitely has more crossover appeal than Doug Mastriano lol. It’s Michigan by a long shot. I think PA will be tough for the GOP no matter what, but MI is 50/50 at worst for them.

[RussFeingoldWasRobbed]

Craig is not guaranteed to be the R nominee in MI. He’s not a shoo-in for the Trump endorsement and his momentum has been fading recently.

I did notice that. I still think he will win the primary though. I don't think Trump endorses in this race

[MT Treasurer]

Bumping this — curious to see how results might change now that we have a better idea of the nominees and more polling. Right now, the results of the poll are 70.4% (19 votes) for MI and 29.6% (8 votes) for PA.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Neither will

[wbrocks67]

I would say PA slightly, bc Whitmer gets a few extra points for incumbent advantage. Shapiro is kind of like an incumbent, but Whitmer has extra strength due to being the official I.

Mastriano is among the worst, but Kelley is pretty damn close (and Dixon not much better)

[Senator Incitatus]

Switched my vote from Michigan to Pennsylvania.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Pennsylvania. Shapiro while solid doesn't seem like a particuarly great candidate and while Mastriano has his fair share of problems, we've seem Republicans like this still do ok if not outperform electorally, heck, just look at Scott Perry.

Michigan is slightly bluer as a baseline, Whitmer seems to be genuinely "popular" or at least relatively well liked as an incumbent, and the GOP primary so far has been a complete mess. Also, there's the abortion question on the ballot in Michigan. For all of those who argue the whole abortion thing favors Dems, wouldn't it favor them more strongly in a state like MI where it's directly on the ballot and where there is clearly a lot of enthusiasm backing it.

[wbrocks67]

Pennsylvania. Shapiro while solid doesn't seem like a particuarly great candidate and while Mastriano has his fair share of problems, we've seem Republicans like this still do ok if not outperform electorally, heck, just look at Scott Perry.

Michigan is slightly bluer as a baseline, Whitmer seems to be genuinely "popular" or at least relatively well liked as an incumbent, and the GOP primary so far has been a complete mess. Also, there's the abortion question on the ballot in Michigan. For all of those who argue the whole abortion thing favors Dems, wouldn't it favor them more strongly in a state like MI where it's directly on the ballot and where there is clearly a lot of enthusiasm backing it.

He won PA by 5 in 2020 when Biden won by 1 and the two other Ds lost.

[ProgressiveModerate]

Pennsylvania. Shapiro while solid doesn't seem like a particuarly great candidate and while Mastriano has his fair share of problems, we've seem Republicans like this still do ok if not outperform electorally, heck, just look at Scott Perry.

Michigan is slightly bluer as a baseline, Whitmer seems to be genuinely "popular" or at least relatively well liked as an incumbent, and the GOP primary so far has been a complete mess. Also, there's the abortion question on the ballot in Michigan. For all of those who argue the whole abortion thing favors Dems, wouldn't it favor them more strongly in a state like MI where it's directly on the ballot and where there is clearly a lot of enthusiasm backing it.

He won PA by 5 in 2020 when Biden won by 1 and the two other Ds lost.

He was an incumbent running against a nobody though. Idk how much of that overperformance is actually because of him rather than the greater circumstances around that race.

Also decent chunks of his overperformance seemed like residual down ballot lag.

[Tekken_Guy]

With Craig out of the race in MI, I’d say PA now.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mastriano is Losing in PA too

[Politician]

Mastriano IMO hasn't actually ran a particularly bad campaign, and also doesn't have to run against an incumbent. He's more likely to win.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mastriano IMO hasn't actually ran a particularly bad campaign, and also doesn't have to run against an incumbent. He's more likely to win.

He's losing ANYWAYS

[Senator-elect Spark]

Definitely PA right now, although both nominees may turn out to be January 6thers.