Post Random US Election County Maps Here
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  Post Random US Election County Maps Here
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Author Topic: Post Random US Election County Maps Here  (Read 64314 times)
Calthrina950
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« Reply #400 on: March 01, 2018, 12:33:11 AM »


It is amazing to see how strong the Democrats still were in the South, on the downballot level, at this time. Mind you, this was more than a decade after the Civil Rights Act.
The Deep South was still favorable to Democrats at the state level until the early 2000's for the most part.

Yes I know, but it's still interesting to see.

As to your other map, it is also interesting. I wonder if you plan on doing a map for if the Republicans won every county.
I do, I'm working on it now. I currently have about 15 states done but I can already tell that the Deep South and Texas are going to be tricky because of the traditonal Democratic strongholds of South Texas and the Black Belt. For instance, in the 1998 Texas Gubernatorial Election, George W. Bush won with almost 70% of the vote statewide, but Duval County still voted over 70% Democrat.

That is an issue. I would guess than when you were making the Democratic sweep map, the staunchly Republican counties out on the Great Plains (in Western Nebraska and North Texas particularly, like King County), were also very challenging.


With the Democratic sweep map, I used quite a few older elections (Texas is the 1964 Attorney General race, for instance) so it wasn't much of an issue. I did have to do some swings for existing races though, which I will likely have to do with the GOP sweep map as well. However, in the case of states like Mississippi and Alabama, the Republican would end up getting 85%+ of the vote if I swing existing elections so that they win every county, which is obviously absurd, but fits well considering these states are already solidly R and the GOP nominee must be winning over 80% of the national PV to win every county.

I forgot that in 1964, then Governor Connolly also won every county in the state. But your reasoning on the Deep South is solid, given that Goldwater got 87% in Mississippi in 1964 and won every county, and that Nixon nearly did so with 78% in 1972.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #401 on: March 01, 2018, 01:28:24 AM »


It is amazing to see how strong the Democrats still were in the South, on the downballot level, at this time. Mind you, this was more than a decade after the Civil Rights Act.
The Deep South was still favorable to Democrats at the state level until the early 2000's for the most part.

Yes I know, but it's still interesting to see.

As to your other map, it is also interesting. I wonder if you plan on doing a map for if the Republicans won every county.
I do, I'm working on it now. I currently have about 15 states done but I can already tell that the Deep South and Texas are going to be tricky because of the traditonal Democratic strongholds of South Texas and the Black Belt. For instance, in the 1998 Texas Gubernatorial Election, George W. Bush won with almost 70% of the vote statewide, but Duval County still voted over 70% Democrat.

That is an issue. I would guess than when you were making the Democratic sweep map, the staunchly Republican counties out on the Great Plains (in Western Nebraska and North Texas particularly, like King County), were also very challenging.


With the Democratic sweep map, I used quite a few older elections (Texas is the 1964 Attorney General race, for instance) so it wasn't much of an issue. I did have to do some swings for existing races though, which I will likely have to do with the GOP sweep map as well. However, in the case of states like Mississippi and Alabama, the Republican would end up getting 85%+ of the vote if I swing existing elections so that they win every county, which is obviously absurd, but fits well considering these states are already solidly R and the GOP nominee must be winning over 80% of the national PV to win every county.

I forgot that in 1964, then Governor Connolly also won every county in the state. But your reasoning on the Deep South is solid, given that Goldwater got 87% in Mississippi in 1964 and won every county, and that Nixon nearly did so with 78% in 1972.
I probably won't be using any elections prior to 1968 for the Southern states, if I can help it. I feel that it's kind of cheating because most blacks weren't allowed to vote and so it was very easy for someone like Goldwater to get 87% when virtually everyone who voted in Mississippi in 1964 was white. I'll likely use Nixon's wins in Georgia and South Carolina from 1972, and maybe his wins in a few other Southern states as well.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #402 on: March 02, 2018, 07:07:17 PM »

\

Guess the context.
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Metalhead123
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« Reply #403 on: March 02, 2018, 09:50:56 PM »

10% swing to Trump?
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #404 on: March 02, 2018, 10:11:31 PM »


2020 if Trump loses decisively?
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TexArkana
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« Reply #405 on: March 02, 2018, 10:34:43 PM »

Not specifically 2020. I just gave the Democrat every county where Hillary received at least 40% in 2016.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #406 on: March 02, 2018, 11:41:49 PM »

Not specifically 2020. I just gave the Democrat every county where Hillary received at least 40% in 2016.

I see. But this would be a plausible 2020 map, if Trump's approval ratings fell even lower, to ~30-35% or less, and he had a strong Democratic opponent.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #407 on: March 03, 2018, 12:35:27 AM »

Not specifically 2020. I just gave the Democrat every county where Hillary received at least 40% in 2016.

I see. But this would be a plausible 2020 map, if Trump's approval ratings fell even lower, to ~30-35% or less, and he had a strong Democratic opponent.
Maybe someone like Doug Jones or Heidi Heitkamp could get a map like this. Possibly Biden if the economy is really in the gutter come 2020.
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Metalhead123
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« Reply #408 on: March 03, 2018, 10:39:42 AM »

Crap I meant to say Clinton
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Metalhead123
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« Reply #409 on: March 04, 2018, 04:31:11 PM »


Here is a 5% swing to JFK. I started this project a while back and I had forgotten about it.



This is the electoral map for it
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TexArkana
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« Reply #410 on: March 04, 2018, 04:36:11 PM »


Here is a 5% swing to JFK. I started this project a while back and I had forgotten about it.


What election do you plan on doing next?

This is the electoral map for it
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Metalhead123
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« Reply #411 on: March 04, 2018, 04:37:44 PM »


Here is a 5% swing to JFK. I started this project a while back and I had forgotten about it.


What election do you plan on doing next?

This is the electoral map for it
I think you put your question into my quote lol. I have no clue what Im doing next
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« Reply #412 on: March 04, 2018, 04:46:46 PM »

Do 5% swing to Obama 2008 pls
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TexArkana
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« Reply #413 on: March 04, 2018, 06:39:23 PM »

He already has. Look back in the thread.
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Metalhead123
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« Reply #414 on: March 04, 2018, 10:32:31 PM »

Im honestly scared that Im going to do all of the ideas for maps before anyone else can lol.
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bagelman
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« Reply #415 on: March 05, 2018, 12:45:44 AM »

I've done a map of Gary Johnson winning the same national percentage as Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump is a minor nationalist candidate winning the same percentage as our Gary Johnson.



Biggest achievement for Johnson - he flips Travis TX! This while the state swings against him relative to OTL Trump due to little support in the Houston metro. Johnson keeps Orange CA as well, while Clinton is widely successful in the deep south and is better off in OH than IL.

 
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TexArkana
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« Reply #416 on: March 05, 2018, 12:55:44 AM »

I've done a map of Gary Johnson winning the same national percentage as Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump is a minor nationalist candidate winning the same percentage as our Gary Johnson.



Biggest achievement for Johnson - he flips Travis TX! This while the state swings against him relative to OTL Trump due to little support in the Houston metro. Johnson keeps Orange CA as well, while Clinton is widely successful in the deep south and is better off in OH than IL.

 
Beautiful map. Could you do the same thing with Jill Stein and Hillary?
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adrac
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« Reply #417 on: March 05, 2018, 02:37:47 AM »
« Edited: March 05, 2018, 03:02:12 AM by adracman42 »

I've done a map of Gary Johnson winning the same national percentage as Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump is a minor nationalist candidate winning the same percentage as our Gary Johnson.



Biggest achievement for Johnson - he flips Travis TX! This while the state swings against him relative to OTL Trump due to little support in the Houston metro. Johnson keeps Orange CA as well, while Clinton is widely successful in the deep south and is better off in OH than IL.

 
I'm very curious to see some of the state totals in this scenario. It almost seems as if Johnson's votes are distributed even more optimally that Trump's IRL.
Edit: I ran it through, and this doesn't appear to be the case. A whole lot more EVs in the South than I thought in my head.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #418 on: March 05, 2018, 10:20:55 AM »

I've done a map of Gary Johnson winning the same national percentage as Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump is a minor nationalist candidate winning the same percentage as our Gary Johnson.



Biggest achievement for Johnson - he flips Travis TX! This while the state swings against him relative to OTL Trump due to little support in the Houston metro. Johnson keeps Orange CA as well, while Clinton is widely successful in the deep south and is better off in OH than IL.

 

What would the electoral map look like here?
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Jalawest2
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« Reply #419 on: March 05, 2018, 10:37:20 AM »

I've done a map of Gary Johnson winning the same national percentage as Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump is a minor nationalist candidate winning the same percentage as our Gary Johnson.



Biggest achievement for Johnson - he flips Travis TX! This while the state swings against him relative to OTL Trump due to little support in the Houston metro. Johnson keeps Orange CA as well, while Clinton is widely successful in the deep south and is better off in OH than IL.

 

What would the electoral map look like here?
http://www.270towin.com/maps/P6w87
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TexArkana
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« Reply #420 on: March 05, 2018, 11:36:06 AM »

I've done a map of Gary Johnson winning the same national percentage as Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump is a minor nationalist candidate winning the same percentage as our Gary Johnson.



Biggest achievement for Johnson - he flips Travis TX! This while the state swings against him relative to OTL Trump due to little support in the Houston metro. Johnson keeps Orange CA as well, while Clinton is widely successful in the deep south and is better off in OH than IL.

 

What would the electoral map look like here?
http://www.270towin.com/maps/P6w87
Nevada probably goes for Johnson since he's winning Washoe with a majority of the vote. Arkansas looks very close as well.
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Calthrina950
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« Reply #421 on: March 05, 2018, 11:45:01 AM »

I've done a map of Gary Johnson winning the same national percentage as Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump is a minor nationalist candidate winning the same percentage as our Gary Johnson.



Biggest achievement for Johnson - he flips Travis TX! This while the state swings against him relative to OTL Trump due to little support in the Houston metro. Johnson keeps Orange CA as well, while Clinton is widely successful in the deep south and is better off in OH than IL.

 

What would the electoral map look like here?
http://www.270towin.com/maps/P6w87
Nevada probably goes for Johnson since he's winning Washoe with a majority of the vote. Arkansas looks very close as well.

The map looks like some kind of alignment in which the Democrats still have residual strength in the South, and Republicans elsewhere in the country (except for the Northeast and Atlantic States). This would seem like a plausible map for an election between the 1970s and early 2000s.
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TexArkana
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« Reply #422 on: March 05, 2018, 11:50:08 AM »

I've done a map of Gary Johnson winning the same national percentage as Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump is a minor nationalist candidate winning the same percentage as our Gary Johnson.



Biggest achievement for Johnson - he flips Travis TX! This while the state swings against him relative to OTL Trump due to little support in the Houston metro. Johnson keeps Orange CA as well, while Clinton is widely successful in the deep south and is better off in OH than IL.

 

What would the electoral map look like here?
http://www.270towin.com/maps/P6w87
Nevada probably goes for Johnson since he's winning Washoe with a majority of the vote. Arkansas looks very close as well.

The map looks like some kind of alignment in which the Democrats still have residual strength in the South, and Republicans elsewhere in the country (except for the Northeast and Atlantic States). This would seem like a plausible map for an election between the 1970s and early 2000s.
It looks like an election from the 1990's where the Democratic nominee is from Mississippi and the GOP  nominee is from New Mexico, I think.
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Jalawest2
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« Reply #423 on: March 05, 2018, 04:57:42 PM »

I've done a map of Gary Johnson winning the same national percentage as Donald Trump against Hillary Clinton. Donald Trump is a minor nationalist candidate winning the same percentage as our Gary Johnson.



Biggest achievement for Johnson - he flips Travis TX! This while the state swings against him relative to OTL Trump due to little support in the Houston metro. Johnson keeps Orange CA as well, while Clinton is widely successful in the deep south and is better off in OH than IL.

 

What would the electoral map look like here?
http://www.270towin.com/maps/P6w87
Nevada probably goes for Johnson since he's winning Washoe with a majority of the vote. Arkansas looks very close as well.
Nevada is 47.43% Clinton, 46.13% Johnson. Arkansas is 43.08% Clinton, 47.38% Johnson.
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Jalawest2
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« Reply #424 on: March 05, 2018, 05:06:35 PM »

Here is the state map.
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