LA 2019 Gov Race: Gov John Bel Edwards wins a 2nd term

[Calthrina950]

Here are county ratings I made for all three races.



And I should tell you what I'm currently expecting as well so it makes sense...

KY: 52.0-44.5 Bevin (slightly worse margin than last time, but the county swings are going to be ridiculous)

LA: 50.5-49.5 Edwards

MS: 53.5-45.5 Reeves (almost exact margin of MS special senate race. Counties are exactly the same too)

You might be too optimistic with Beshear's chances in Kentucky. I'm not sure if Elliott County will vote Democratic at this point.

[Calthrina950]

Here are county ratings I made for all three races.



And I should tell you what I'm currently expecting as well so it makes sense...

KY: 52.0-44.5 Bevin (slightly worse margin than last time, but the county swings are going to be ridiculous)

LA: 50.5-49.5 Edwards

MS: 53.5-45.5 Reeves (almost exact margin of MS special senate race. Counties are exactly the same too)

You might be too optimistic with Beshear's chances in Kentucky. I'm not sure if Elliott County will vote Democratic at this point.

He will carry it without any doubt. Last year even the sacrificial lamb who ran against Hal Rogers and who barely won 20% won close to 45% in Elliott.

But 2018 was the first time ever that Rogers won Elliott County against a Democratic opponent. And as we've seen with the Louisiana jungle primary and the NC-09 special election, rural trends against the Democrats are proceeding in full force.

[Calthrina950]

Here are county ratings I made for all three races.



And I should tell you what I'm currently expecting as well so it makes sense...

KY: 52.0-44.5 Bevin (slightly worse margin than last time, but the county swings are going to be ridiculous)

LA: 50.5-49.5 Edwards

MS: 53.5-45.5 Reeves (almost exact margin of MS special senate race. Counties are exactly the same too)

You might be too optimistic with Beshear's chances in Kentucky. I'm not sure if Elliott County will vote Democratic at this point.

He will carry it without any doubt. Last year even the sacrificial lamb who ran against Hal Rogers and who barely won 20% won close to 45% in Elliott.

But 2018 was the first time ever that Rogers won Elliott County against a Democratic opponent. And as we've seen with the Louisiana jungle primary and the NC-09 special election, rural trends against the Democrats are proceeding in full force.

If Beshear wins at least 41% statewide, he will carry Elliott.

Jim Gray got 43% in 2016 against Rand Paul, and he carried Elliott 56-44, while Trump was carrying the county 70-26. So I suppose that it's possible, even though as I've said, the rural trends since then may hand the county to Bevin. We will have to see.

[Calthrina950]

Beshear definitely wins Jefferson, Fayette, Franklin and probably wins Elliott, Nicholas, Marion, Woodford, Rowan, Nelson, Bourbon.

I’m sure this will age well as those “Likely D LA Gov” posts

Uh, saying LA-GOV was Likely D was reasonable based on the information at the time and my final pre-runoff rating was Lean D, but thanks for playing

Since I know you're going to dig up one dumb thing I said, here was my final primary prediction which was no further off than yours:

Edwards 49
Rispone 25
Abraham 22

Jim Gray won Nicholas, Marion, and Rowan in 2016, in addition to Jefferson, Franklin, Fayette, and Elliott. But given rural trends, I doubt that Beshear will carry Nicholas and Marion, and I've already expressed my doubts about Elliott. He does have a shot in Rowan, since it did reject Kim Davis last year, but it's out there. I earnestly wouldn't be surprised if Beshear carried the Democratic base counties and nothing else.

[Calthrina950]

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1190785476581572608

https://twitter.com/WinWithJMC/status/1190800755596222465

The example he points to for high turnout, Vermillion, only gave JBE 22% in the primary. If thats the trend he chooses to point out, JBE should be concerned.

I still find it to be a shame how Edwards is in the fight of his political life, when in a less polarized environment, he would be sailing to reelection. He has none of the privileges afforded to Charlie Baker, Larry Hogan, and Phil Scott. Republican voters in Louisiana, it is clear at this point, make no distinction between him and the national Democratic Party. His support for the fetal heartbeat bill earlier this year may not save him from defeat, which makes it all a fruitless effort.

[Calthrina950]

It's so annoying that this race is tight but nobody up here even considered voting out God-Emperor Charlie Baker.

Massachusetts' traditional fondness for Republican governors has not been eliminated by polarization.

[Calthrina950]

It's so annoying that this race is tight but nobody up here even considered voting out God-Emperor Charlie Baker.

Massachusetts' traditional fondness for Republican governors has not been eliminated by polarization.

Dems already having a veto proof majority  in the MA Legislature so voting for Republicans won’t have much affect other than putting a minor check on that legislature .

I'm aware of this. But I've also argued earlier (and this may have been more relevant), that Massachusetts voters are far more willing to vote for a Republican governor than the contrary in a state such as Kentucky or Mississippi. Polarization hasn't had an even effect.

[Calthrina950]

I'm aware of this. But I've also argued earlier (and this may have been more relevant), that Massachusetts voters are far more willing to vote for a Republican governor than the contrary in a state such as Kentucky or Mississippi. Polarization hasn't had an even effect.

Or maybe it’s not because Democrats are "far more wiling" to vote for a Republican but simply because Republican governors in MA, MD, and VT virtually have zero power? You also conveniently tend to leave out the fact that there are more red state Democratic Senators than blue state Republican Senators whenever you complain about "polarization" among Republican voters (which is in pretty much every single one of your posts).

This is true, as we have Jones, Manchin, Tester, and Sinema. However, all four of these Senators won by very narrow margins. Jones is DOA in 2020 (and will get blown out by double digits by any Republican who is not Roy Moore), and Manchin and Tester would have lost last year if they had faced better opponents (I'm thinking of Evan Jenkins and Ryan Zinke, in particular). Also, weren't you the one who last year was claiming that Bredesen, Edmondson, Heitkamp, and others were going to win? They all got blown out by double digits, in spite of the fact that Bredesen was a popular former Governor facing a mediocre opponent, and that Edmondson was running in a state whose incumbent Republican Governor at the time had nearly destroyed it.

I don't complain of polarization in every single post: that is a lie. And I'm not the only one on here who shares these particular views. My views are colored by the harsh realities of the past few years.

[Calthrina950]

Edwards should be fine. Could see him winning by as much as 6 or 7 now

Not sure if his winning margin will be that wide, but I definitely do believe that Edwards is the slight favorite in his race. I'm thinking he will win by around 2-5% in the end.

[Calthrina950]

Really interesting that JBE appears to be the only Trump-era Dem who succeeded in getting Obama-level black turnout for a downballot contest.  

Did Abrams and Gillum not?

They did, but it was not enough. Abrams lost because rural and exurban white voters came out in force for Brian Kemp; she did worse than even Hillary Clinton throughout most of the state outside of the Atlanta, Columbus, Augusta, and Savannah metropolitan areas. Gillum lost not only because of white voters turning out in force in the Panhandle and the I-4 corridor (which they did), but also because he could not obtain Clinton's levels of support among Cuban and Puerto Rican voters.

[Calthrina950]

I wonder how many Trump voters JBE will get.

Edwards will obviously need Trump voters to win reelection. I suspect the ones he will get will be moderate, educated, middle to upper middle class white suburbanites in the New Orleans and Baton Rouge metropolitan areas.

[Calthrina950]

I wonder how many Trump voters JBE will get.

Edwards will obviously need Trump voters to win reelection. I suspect the ones he will get will be moderate, educated, middle to upper middle class white suburbanites in the New Orleans and Baton Rouge metropolitan areas.

I would hesitate to call them moderate, more like "less conservative."

Fair enough, but you could still say "moderate" within the context of Louisianian politics.

[Calthrina950]

I wonder how many Trump voters JBE will get.

Edwards will obviously need Trump voters to win reelection. I suspect the ones he will get will be moderate, educated, middle to upper middle class white suburbanites in the New Orleans and Baton Rouge metropolitan areas.

I mean yes, but he will also be getting them in rural Trump country too. Obviously he will do much worse than 2015 there, but it will be places like Cameron Parish Louisiana where hell get high twenties vs like 10% and lose it by high 40s instead of like by 80. He will do much better in many rural Trump country areas than HRC 2016, which will go underapreciated should he win tomorrow. Sometimes it really does make a giant difference and help get you over the top whether you get smashed by 40-50 points in an area instead of like 60 you know?

It seems like we were both correct. Edwards won Jefferson Parish by 14%, and managed to crack 40% in St. Tammany Parish, which is an astonishing feat for a Democrat in Louisiana. He did better in both parishes than he did in 2015. At the same time, Edwards did manage to draw a higher share of the vote throughout rural Louisiana than Clinton did in 2016, though of course he did significantly worse against Rispone than against Vitter, and lost a number of parishes (i.e. Allen, Evangeline, Jefferson Davis) by landslide margins (more than 20%), which he had carried in 2015.

[Calthrina950]

Demographic data for the runoff have posted

Turnout:
White 52.7
Black 50.2
Other 35.2

The gap between W/B turnout was 9.6 in the primary and 3.0 in the 2015 general

From the primary, the black vote increased by about 94,000, the white vote 56,000 and other by 9,000. 

The voting electorate was 65.5 white 30.8 black and 3.6 other

The early vote was 65.9 white 31.1 black and 3.0 other

Black voters saved Edwards from defeat, just as they were the decisive factor in pushing Doug Jones over the finish line in neighboring Alabama back in 2017. They (and I say this in a collective sense) are truly the backbone of the Democratic Party.

[Calthrina950]

Demographic data for the runoff have posted

Turnout:
White 52.7
Black 50.2
Other 35.2

The gap between W/B turnout was 9.6 in the primary and 3.0 in the 2015 general

From the primary, the black vote increased by about 94,000, the white vote 56,000 and other by 9,000. 

The voting electorate was 65.5 white 30.8 black and 3.6 other

The early vote was 65.9 white 31.1 black and 3.0 other

Black voters saved Edwards from defeat, just as they were the decisive factor in pushing Doug Jones over the finish line in neighboring Alabama back in 2017. They (and I say this in a collective sense) are truly the backbone of the Democratic Party.

They played a big role (of course), but the main reason why he was reelected is that close to 1/5 of the republican electorate crossed the line to support him, in the SOS race black voters also backed at +90% the D candidate, the main difference is that center right whites supported the republican candidate.

This is true. Edwards ran 11% ahead of Collins-Greenup, and that difference was clearly attributable to ticket-splitting Republican voters, particularly "moderate", educated suburbanites in the New Orleans and Baton Rouge metropolitan areas. But black voters were still the driving engine to his victory.