NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Lunar]

Sam's Staten Island theory didn't seem to hold

[Lunar]

Sam's Staten Island theory didn't seem to hold

I'm shocked, frankly.

Me too, McMahon seemed so strong with local support

[Lunar]

NY-01 isn't over yet:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7970/ny01-altschuler-says-he-has-the-lead-after-recanvass

Ughhhhhhhh

[Lunar]

NY-01 isn't over yet:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7970/ny01-altschuler-says-he-has-the-lead-after-recanvass

Ughhhhhhhh

Having read the article, it looks pretty over to me. The ball didn't move much.

Over, meaning that Bishop lost?  Because that's what it looks like.

Leaving NY with a 7 seat loss?  Ouch, especially with such domination by Democrats at the statewide and statewide federal level

[Lunar]

7 is fairly surprising imo.  I expected Maffei, McMahon, Bishop, and Murphy to win.

[Lunar]

7 is fairly surprising imo.  I expected Maffei, McMahon, Bishop, and Murphy to win.

I smelled that Murphy was gone, Arcuri surprised me more b/c he appeared to have regained strength, but that was just a mirage.

As for Bishop, I wondered.  Considering the rest of the Long Island CDs, it was a bit surprising that it didn't fall, and now it probably will.

McMahon was surprising for mentioned earlier - pretty much the only real "surprise" to me Tuesday.  Maffei, I had that one seriously on the radar, as you know (but even IL-8 and TX-27 was on my radar).

The reason why I say that it wasn't surprising is because these are areas that would be real problems in a GOP wave - they have GOP history which is far from being completely dead (yet).

I mean, Murphy was obviously the most obvious of the five.  And Arcuri, whom I had written off completely initially, did impress me towards the end and I thought he was going to pull it out too.  I haven't looked at the Gillibrand and Cuomo maps, how did they do in these seven flipped districts? I wonder how Gillibrand did in NY-20 especially

At least CA's incumbent-gerrymandering skills are unquestionable.  We've had like three wave elections in different directions in a state with 50something congressmen, and about one seat change hands each time?

[Lunar]

What surprises me about NY-1 & NY-13 is the GOP's success despite incredibly divisive primaries.  Like more than NY-23 divisive but without the Conservative Party split on election day.

[Lunar]

Altschuler will win...seriously? Yuccccccck.

Not definite, but he's in a better place than Bishop is as of now

He's going to expand the Jewish-Republican caucus in all of Congress to a grand total of two then, right?  I'm pretty sure that's unimpressive considering their large Congressional gains and their gains into other minority groups.

[Lunar]

What surprises me about NY-1 & NY-13 is the GOP's success despite incredibly divisive primaries.  Like more than NY-23 divisive but without the Conservative Party split on election day.

Goes to show you how much more important election day splits are, as opposed to primary splits.

Yeah...but NY-13 had a meltdown.   Conservative Party pitted against Conservative Party, Hasidic groups in Brooklyn goin' against each other, Conservative Borough President behind the Democrat, crazy Republican from the past emerging to threaten to claim the nomination in a coup.... and it all mattered less than a ballot line where one candidate withdraw and endorsed the major party candidate.

It's not like the Republican who won in NY-23 was a Scozzafava

[Lunar]

7 is fairly surprising imo.  I expected Maffei, McMahon, Bishop, and Murphy to win.

It's kind of hard to believe that Republicans would be stuck at holding only 2 NY CDs forever.  Especially when certain districts (NY-20, in particular) were Gerrymandered to elect Republicans (in contrast with NY-22, which is Gerrymandered to keep Hinchey in office).   With President Bush out of office, there's no reason for NY CDs not to revert to their pro-Republican tendencies of the recent past.  Even NY-04 was closer than usual, reverting back to the margins McCarthy last received in 1998.

Yeah obviously they were going to expand out of those 2, especially with  the [outdated] GOP gerrymanders, just a few of those 7 surprise me as I was following those races.

[Lunar]

Altschuler will win...seriously? Yuccccccck.

Not definite, but he's in a better place than Bishop is as of now

He's going to expand the Jewish-Republican caucus in all of Congress to a grand total of two then, right?  I'm pretty sure that's unimpressive considering their large Congressional gains and their gains into other minority groups.

I still think Chuck Fleischmann in TN-03 is a closet Jew. He doesn't mention religion at all on his website, and, come on, his last name is Fleischmann.

Well this TV ad's script says he's a Christian

http://www.chuckforcongress.com/index.cfm?p=PressReleases&ContentRecord_id=e7da4d44-63af-4eea-b29b-f4eb196ae4b3&ContentType_id=0e5df947-9244-4b5e-ba6c-3f03a09e5693&Group_id=7d2b20a4-48c0-45ce-834e-3b855e4732a7&MonthDisplay=5&YearDisplay=2010

and this TV ad say he's a Christian:

http://www.youtube.com/ChuckforCongress#p/u/3/oDuXqF41IaA

[Lunar]

I never realized how weird Carly sounded in her own ads, it's like she's thinking hard about each punctuation mark.  Here's an example:

http://www.youtube.com/user/CarlyforCalifornia#p/u/11/yc1aXp0sGAE

Maybe it's because what she's actually saying is just a series of unrelated clauses.

[Lunar]

Amazing job Alaska school system, so many ballots spelled correctly!  Murkowski wins, Miller's staff is packing it in

[Lunar]

Things be looking bad for Bobby Eth!

[Lunar]

Looks like Tim Bishop got an early shipment of Four Loko!!

http://www.capitaltonight.com/2010/11/bishop-up-by-15/

[Lunar]

It looks like the Pubbie has finally nailed down NY-25, so it looks like +63 seats for the Pubbies. I am a genius.

Yeah, it seems that NY-01 is your biggest potential foil, and that one is drifting D (like a glacier though).

[Lunar]

So California experienced a wave election and 0 seats changed hands?

[Lunar]

Well the NY-1 has gone into the bizzaro world of how sealed an envelope was.  Some ballots were thrown out because they were improperly sealed, others were counted over the objections by the Altschuler campaign that they were closed with scotch tape rather than licked closed.  Yes, you read that correctly.   Bishop has increased his lead to 264 votes after 120 more ballots were allowed to be counted.

GOP elections commissioner asked for the vote count to be stopped (for reasons currently unknown) and altschuler and the GOP are now in closed door meetings.


http://www.newsday.com/long-island/politics/spin-cycle-1.812042/1st-c-d-how-sticky-is-sticky-enough-1.2511678?showAll=true

Hah, because, you know, any vote-tampering operation aiming to change/defraud hundreds of absentee votes, wouldn't be able to reseal an envelope in a convincing manner?

[Lunar]

http://www.capitaltonight.com/2010/12/altschuler-concedes-in-ny1/

[Lunar]

Honest question: Why are so many of the close races with Republican Party candidates trailing on the defensive?

For the protracted federal legal battles, it seems that Congressional Republicans in California, Alaska, and New York were disproportionately responsible for the delay.  Maffei and Ortiz kept their causes going a bit longer than necessary, but that was still substantively less days than the former (I believe both Harmer & Vidak conceded after Maffei).  Am I crazy here?

And for governors races, Democrats won all of the close races except Florida & Ohio -- which, of course, doesn't necesarily speak to Republican's weakness, as they had a number of blowouts in Texas, Pennsylvania, Michigan, etc.  And, of course, Emmer, like Miller, were particularly sore-losery in their legal challenges with less than 0.01% of succeeding.

[Lunar]

Fair enough, I think an argument that my perception is all coincidence, especially when taking into account state legislative races, has a lot of sticking power here.  It makes more sense than anything I can come up with

[Lunar]

I assume it is clear now Cinyc, that the GOP took control of the NY State Senate. Is that correct?

100% correct with 0 room for error.

[Lunar]

Does anyone know if Tim Scott won the black vote in SC CD1?

He won 65%-29% in a district that is 75% white, 25% non-white, fwiw

[Lunar]

Does anyone know if Tim Scott won the black vote in SC CD1?

He won 65%-29% in a district that is 75% white, 25% non-white, fwiw

Based off that its a clear no, and he didn't win much of it either.  The only way he was even competitive with the black vote is if many more whites voted against the GOP in that district than they typically do because of him.

In 2008, Obama of the two party vote got about 40.5% of it in SC-01. So the 10% drop in support from Obama to the Dem who ran against Scott is accounted for by what?

I dunno if this is what you mean, but local officials in solid districts often overperform their national tide due to lack of funded known opposition that national candidates have.  There's a few CA GOP Congressmen still sitting in districts Obama won.

[Lunar]

I feel like I may have gone off on a tangent with my last post, eh.  Anyway, important to remember that the Democrats almost won SC-01 in 2008, 52%-48%.