NATIONAL SENATE/HOUSE RESULTS THREAD (LATE RESULTS/POSTMORTEM)

[Associate Justice PiT]

Yes, which is where this is going.   

I meant "only the aftermath". (Nah, seriously. He expect me to even read an 80 page thread that I haven't read yet? The only reason I came here was my thread was missing and this one was my best bet as to where it might have gone.)

     Probably you are supposed to pretend the first 80 or so pages don't exist.

[minionofmidas]

I mean, obviously the discussion I was missing and looking for was in this thread, and my post belongs with it. I was merely explaining myself in starting it.

[Torie]

Well CA-11 appears to have been inspired by the Senate race in Washington, and the late absentees so far are not being kind to the Pubble Harmer. What we have is Dem creep. Unless Harmer can volley back with Pubbie creep of a slightly higher magnitude that that reflected below in the County he is leading in, San Joaquin, and by a hair in Contra Costa, Harmer is going the way of Rossi.

   Alameda               
57.32%   15688   16086   398   59.49%      
42.68%   11679   11950   271   40.51%      
14.65%   27367   28036   669   18.98%   4.33%   Dem improvement
                  
   Santa Clara               
54.04%   5285   6912   1627   55.45%      
45.96%   4495   5802   1307   44.55%      
8.08%   9780   12714   2934   10.91%   2.83%   Dem improvement



Just so the numbers are up for later comparison, the totals from yesterday with no new numbers yet from today for Contra Costa and San Joaquin are:

                        San Joaquin      Contra Costa
Harmer             45,958                19,871
McNerney         41,958                19,539

And once we get the above two counties in, we can see whether McNerney's lead from yesterday of 121, expands or contracts.

If Harmer loses by the way, my "perfect" prediction of a GOP gain of 63 seats is probably going to go down the toilet.  It does not look too good at the moment.

Addendum

Contra Costa caused another small yardage loss for Harmer, but the key play is the next one from San Joaquin, of which we await.

McNerney       49.63%   23,718   19,539   4,179   49.88%      
Harmer           50.37%   24,070   19,871   4,199   50.12%      
                      -0.74%    47,788   39,410   8,378    -0.24%   0.50% Dem Improvement

[Torie]

Apparently, Mason Dixon bit the dust in Nevada with its polls because  they were done in by the cell phone and Hispanics don't like to be grilled by gringos in English as to how they will vote, phenomenon.

[Rowan]

NY-01 isn't over yet:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7970/ny01-altschuler-says-he-has-the-lead-after-recanvass

[Sam Spade]

Apparently, Mason Dixon bit the dust in Nevada with its polls because  they were done in by the cell phone and Hispanics don't like to be grilled by gringos in English as to how they will vote, phenomenon.

One would think M-D knows how to handle Hispanics through its many years of Florida polling, but who knows on that front.  But this is now 2 elections in a row and in 2004, there were more minor issues.

The cell phone thingy remains quite unproven - look at the SUSA test polls in California and Oregon.  California was dead-on, but most people missed that landline only callers had the same result as the final numbers (I didn't).  Oregon was a cluster though and completely wrong (made more wrong by the cell phone addition).

Anyway, something happened.  Nevada, though, is a strange state in many respects.

[Lunar]

NY-01 isn't over yet:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7970/ny01-altschuler-says-he-has-the-lead-after-recanvass

Ughhhhhhhh

[Torie]

NY-01 isn't over yet:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7970/ny01-altschuler-says-he-has-the-lead-after-recanvass

Ughhhhhhhh

Having read the article, it looks pretty over to me. The ball didn't move much.

[Lunar]

NY-01 isn't over yet:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7970/ny01-altschuler-says-he-has-the-lead-after-recanvass

Ughhhhhhhh

Having read the article, it looks pretty over to me. The ball didn't move much.

Over, meaning that Bishop lost?  Because that's what it looks like.

Leaving NY with a 7 seat loss?  Ouch, especially with such domination by Democrats at the statewide and statewide federal level

[Associate Justice PiT]

NY-01 isn't over yet:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7970/ny01-altschuler-says-he-has-the-lead-after-recanvass

Ughhhhhhhh

Having read the article, it looks pretty over to me. The ball didn't move much.

Over, meaning that Bishop lost?  Because that's what it looks like.

Leaving NY with a 7 seat loss?  Ouch, especially with such domination by Democrats at the statewide and statewide federal level

     As I said elsewhere, Tuesday mostly wasn't that bad for the Democrats in their stronghold states. Losing so many House seats in New York is quite shocking.

[Sam Spade]

NY-01 isn't over yet:

http://www.swingstateproject.com/diary/7970/ny01-altschuler-says-he-has-the-lead-after-recanvass

Ughhhhhhhh

Having read the article, it looks pretty over to me. The ball didn't move much.

Over, meaning that Bishop lost?  Because that's what it looks like.

Leaving NY with a 7 seat loss?  Ouch, especially with such domination by Democrats at the statewide and statewide federal level

     As I said elsewhere, Tuesday mostly wasn't that bad for the Democrats in their stronghold states. Losing so many House seats in New York is quite shocking.

No, it isn't.  Think about why.

[Lunar]

7 is fairly surprising imo.  I expected Maffei, McMahon, Bishop, and Murphy to win.

[JohnnyLongtorso]

AP called it for Giffords. Vidak's lead is down to 1,091 votes. McNerney's lead is at 441. Larsen's has expanded to 3,872.

[Sam Spade]

7 is fairly surprising imo.  I expected Maffei, McMahon, Bishop, and Murphy to win.

I smelled that Murphy was gone, Arcuri surprised me more b/c he appeared to have regained strength, but that was just a mirage.

As for Bishop, I wondered.  Considering the rest of the Long Island CDs, it was a bit surprising that it didn't fall, and now it probably will.

McMahon was surprising for mentioned earlier - pretty much the only real "surprise" to me Tuesday.  Maffei, I had that one seriously on the radar, as you know (but even IL-8 and TX-27 was on my radar).

The reason why I say that it wasn't surprising is because these are areas that would be real problems in a GOP wave - they have GOP history which is far from being completely dead (yet).

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Talking of suspecting that Bishop might be in trouble, can the predictions thread be unlocked so we can all laugh at ourselves?

[Lunar]

7 is fairly surprising imo.  I expected Maffei, McMahon, Bishop, and Murphy to win.

I smelled that Murphy was gone, Arcuri surprised me more b/c he appeared to have regained strength, but that was just a mirage.

As for Bishop, I wondered.  Considering the rest of the Long Island CDs, it was a bit surprising that it didn't fall, and now it probably will.

McMahon was surprising for mentioned earlier - pretty much the only real "surprise" to me Tuesday.  Maffei, I had that one seriously on the radar, as you know (but even IL-8 and TX-27 was on my radar).

The reason why I say that it wasn't surprising is because these are areas that would be real problems in a GOP wave - they have GOP history which is far from being completely dead (yet).

I mean, Murphy was obviously the most obvious of the five.  And Arcuri, whom I had written off completely initially, did impress me towards the end and I thought he was going to pull it out too.  I haven't looked at the Gillibrand and Cuomo maps, how did they do in these seven flipped districts? I wonder how Gillibrand did in NY-20 especially

At least CA's incumbent-gerrymandering skills are unquestionable.  We've had like three wave elections in different directions in a state with 50something congressmen, and about one seat change hands each time?

[Torie]

AP called it for Giffords. Vidak's lead is down to 1,091 votes. McNerney's lead is at 441. Larsen's has expanded to 3,872.

The Vidak erosion needs to be balanced against the fact that it was all a Fresno county dump, and Vidak's trump card if he has one is Kings County. (Look at the time stamps on the County; the only recent one is Fresno.)

[JohnnyLongtorso]

There appears to be almost nothing left from Kings, all that's left are the two Costa counties.

[Sam Spade]

Talking of suspecting that Bishop might be in trouble, can the predictions thread be unlocked so we can all laugh at ourselves?

Go ahead - it's open now

[Lunar]

What surprises me about NY-1 & NY-13 is the GOP's success despite incredibly divisive primaries.  Like more than NY-23 divisive but without the Conservative Party split on election day.

[xavier110]

Altschuler will win...seriously? Yuccccccck.

[Lunar]

Altschuler will win...seriously? Yuccccccck.

Not definite, but he's in a better place than Bishop is as of now

He's going to expand the Jewish-Republican caucus in all of Congress to a grand total of two then, right?  I'm pretty sure that's unimpressive considering their large Congressional gains and their gains into other minority groups.

[Sam Spade]

What surprises me about NY-1 & NY-13 is the GOP's success despite incredibly divisive primaries.  Like more than NY-23 divisive but without the Conservative Party split on election day.

Goes to show you how much more important election day splits are, as opposed to primary splits.

[Lunar]

What surprises me about NY-1 & NY-13 is the GOP's success despite incredibly divisive primaries.  Like more than NY-23 divisive but without the Conservative Party split on election day.

Goes to show you how much more important election day splits are, as opposed to primary splits.

Yeah...but NY-13 had a meltdown.   Conservative Party pitted against Conservative Party, Hasidic groups in Brooklyn goin' against each other, Conservative Borough President behind the Democrat, crazy Republican from the past emerging to threaten to claim the nomination in a coup.... and it all mattered less than a ballot line where one candidate withdraw and endorsed the major party candidate.

It's not like the Republican who won in NY-23 was a Scozzafava

[JohnnyLongtorso]

Altschuler will win...seriously? Yuccccccck.

Not definite, but he's in a better place than Bishop is as of now

He's going to expand the Jewish-Republican caucus in all of Congress to a grand total of two then, right?  I'm pretty sure that's unimpressive considering their large Congressional gains and their gains into other minority groups.

I still think Chuck Fleischmann in TN-03 is a closet Jew. He doesn't mention religion at all on his website, and, come on, his last name is Fleischmann.