Ontario Election 2022

[DL]

What exactly are these "woke issues" (sic.) that Sara Singh supposedly focused on as Attorney General critic two years ago? I follow Ontario politics pretty closely and i honestly have no idea what this is in reference to?

[Ontarois]

More than 95% of the time, governing parties see their polling numbers go down once an election is called.

I'm not sure this is true. I can think of at least the 2011, 2015 and 2019 federal elections where the governing party - Tories in the first two cases, Liberals in the third - remained very steady in the polls throughout the writ period, in three very different elections. Same goes for the 2014 Ontario election where the Wynne Liberals actually improved over the writ period. It's not such an iron-clad rule.

According to the Wikipedia record of opinion polls for Canadian elections, the 10 last opinion polls prior to the 2018 election being called had the Liberals averaging 34.6% support.  On that Election Day, the Liberals got 33.1% of the popular vote.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election

You're correct in that 95% was too much of a rhetorical statement on my part -- but I still maintain it happens more often than not.  With the 2015 election being the marathon that it was, it had a pattern unlike any other Canadian national election by virtue of being twice as long a campaign period as any other recent federal election. 

The 1988 campaign was very different as well, as that was a relatively rare "clearly dominant issue" campaign.  In 1988, the "ballot question" was "Should the Free Trade Agreement with the US be approved?", and no other issue came close (as much as the NDP tried to try to change it to health care in that campaign).  The Tories got a minority of votes on Election Day 1988 but got more than either the Liberals or NDP got individually and more than the PCs were polling at prior to the election being called.  Most elections are about "a little but of everything", IMHO making 1988 an exception on that basis.

The 2018 Ontario election is the classic eample of a governing party dropping from their pre-election level of support to a lower level of Election Day.  But that drop was so extensive that it is not a good indication of the drops that typically occur for governing parties.

I don't mean to suggest that governing parties drop precipitously after the election is called.  But I do think that a look over time shows a small drop for the governing party level of support more often than an increase in their levels of support.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

More than 95% of the time, governing parties see their polling numbers go down once an election is called.

I'm not sure this is true. I can think of at least the 2011, 2015 and 2019 federal elections where the governing party - Tories in the first two cases, Liberals in the third - remained very steady in the polls throughout the writ period, in three very different elections. Same goes for the 2014 Ontario election where the Wynne Liberals actually improved over the writ period. It's not such an iron-clad rule.

According to the Wikipedia record of opinion polls for Canadian elections, the 10 last opinion polls prior to the 2018 election being called had the Liberals averaging 34.6% support.  On that Election Day, the Liberals got 33.1% of the popular vote.
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Opinion_polling_for_the_2019_Canadian_federal_election

You're correct in that 95% was too much of a rhetorical statement on my part -- but I still maintain it happens more often than not.  With the 2015 election being the marathon that it was, it had a pattern unlike any other Canadian national election by virtue of being twice as long a campaign period as any other recent federal election.  

The 1988 campaign was very different as well, as that was a relatively rare "clearly dominant issue" campaign.  In 1988, the "ballot question" was "Should the Free Trade Agreement with the US be approved?", and no other issue came close (as much as the NDP tried to try to change it to health care in that campaign).  The Tories got a minority of votes on Election Day 1988 but got more than either the Liberals or NDP got individually and more than the PCs were polling at prior to the election being called.  Most elections are about "a little but of everything", IMHO making 1988 an exception on that basis.

The 2018 Ontario election is the classic eample of a governing party dropping from their pre-election level of support to a lower level of Election Day.  But that drop was so extensive that it is not a good indication of the drops that typically occur for governing parties.

I don't mean to suggest that governing parties drop precipitously after the election is called.  But I do think that a look over time shows a small drop for the governing party level of support more often than an increase in their levels of support.

Your points are fair, but using 2019 federal as an example (which is probably the closest proxy to this Ontario election - first-term majority government, controversial PM/premier with mid-30s approval, but not a particularly impressive opposition), we're really only talking about a marginal drop between the pre-writ polls and the final result.

Another thing to consider is the NDP's tendency to underperform polls. Even in elections where they're clearly the stronger ABC party (Layton 2011, Horwath 2018), they basically always do a bit worse on election day than what the polls suggest. In a predominantly Lib vs Con race, this probably helps the Liberals shore up support in key areas, but in a predominantly NDP vs PC race, as we both suspect is likely, NDP underperformance = Tory overperformance, as was the case in the 2018 Ontario election.

[DL]

Your points are fair, but using 2019 federal as an example (which is probably the closest proxy to this Ontario election - first-term majority government, controversial PM/premier with mid-30s approval, but not a particularly impressive opposition), we're really only talking about a marginal drop between the pre-writ polls and the final result.

Another thing to consider is the NDP's tendency to underperform polls. Even in elections where they're clearly the stronger ABC party (Layton 2011, Horwath 2018), they basically always do a bit worse on election day than what the polls suggest. In a predominantly Lib vs Con race, this probably helps the Liberals shore up support in key areas, but in a predominantly NDP vs PC race, as we both suspect is likely, NDP underperformance = Tory overperformance, as was the case in the 2018 Ontario election.

One exception to this was the 2014 Ontario election. The final polls mostly (especially IVR polls) had the NDP at around 20% and likely to lose seats and they ended up with 24% and stayed even.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Your points are fair, but using 2019 federal as an example (which is probably the closest proxy to this Ontario election - first-term majority government, controversial PM/premier with mid-30s approval, but not a particularly impressive opposition), we're really only talking about a marginal drop between the pre-writ polls and the final result.

Another thing to consider is the NDP's tendency to underperform polls. Even in elections where they're clearly the stronger ABC party (Layton 2011, Horwath 2018), they basically always do a bit worse on election day than what the polls suggest. In a predominantly Lib vs Con race, this probably helps the Liberals shore up support in key areas, but in a predominantly NDP vs PC race, as we both suspect is likely, NDP underperformance = Tory overperformance, as was the case in the 2018 Ontario election.

One exception to this was the 2014 Ontario election. The final polls mostly (especially IVR polls) had the NDP at around 20% and likely to lose seats and they ended up with 24% and stayed even.

Interesting, I wasn't actually aware of that - though to be fair, 2014 Ontario polls were famously garbage.

[mileslunn]

I would say governing party dropping in polls during elections is really a mixed bag.  In BC, its usually been opposite.  In 2020, 2017 and 2013, governing party went up, flat in 2009 and 2005 while up in 2001 (yes lost badly but NDP started at 15% and finished at 21%).  For federal its a mix too.  Yes went down in 2021, but flat or up slightly in 2019.  Even 2015, most polls put Tories under 30% at beginning and ended up with 32%.  Yes did worse than at beginning in terms of seats, but better in terms of votes and only down in seats in that split on left largely dissipated by election day but with how unpopular Harper was, it was pretty clear progressives would coalesce, just a question of who.

In 2011 and 2008 largely flat and 2006 dropped a fair bit when 2004 dropped a lot in first week but recovered to starting point on final weekend.

For Ontario, governing party went up during campaign in 1999, 2007, 2011, and 2014.  So I would say correlation of which way governing party goes is weak at best.  Now yes Ford could fall, especially if BA2 takes off and things get worse on covid front.

[adma]

What exactly are these "woke issues" (sic.) that Sara Singh supposedly focused on as Attorney General critic two years ago? I follow Ontario politics pretty closely and i honestly have no idea what this is in reference to?

I have no clue either.  Most I can figure might be that certain Twitter politicos wanted to carp on how the NDP kept on being "NDP-like" even though they were now Official Opposition; and that being "NDP-like" is no path to being a Natural Governing Party.  And as for Sara Singh, maybe she didn't "stop them", or something.

It's almost as if there's a Twitter-politico contingent that wants to manufacture a "radical agenda" mythology, like an Upper Canadian version of the way Critical Race Theory has become an obsession of the US right.  (So what'd be Ontario's corresponding fixation points?  The "cancellation" of the names Dundas & Ryerson?)

[DL]

So what'd be Ontario's corresponding fixation points?  The "cancellation" of the names Dundas & Ryerson?

Perhaps, but these have not been partisan issues from what i have read. The Ford PCs never made a peep about keeping the Dundas and Ryerson names and the push for those name changes never seemed to come from the ONDP.

[Benjamin Frank]

What exactly are these "woke issues" (sic.) that Sara Singh supposedly focused on as Attorney General critic two years ago? I follow Ontario politics pretty closely and i honestly have no idea what this is in reference to?

You are testing my memory too much!

[toaster]

I've never seen it either, and I tend to watch Question Period quite often. Perhaps the original poster here is mistaken.  Of all of the new class of ONDP MPPs,  Suze and Jill (and to a lesser extent Rima, Laura Mae and Jessica Bell) are the "woke" group, not Sara Singh. But it's Suze and Jill who, to me, come off as the uninformed SJW warrior types. Sarah Singh has been one of the most visible and effective additions to the ONDP caucus.

[adma]

It strikes me that there might be some "Freedom Twitter" political silo that wants to selectively parse poll numbers and make more of the actively-engaged "popularity" or "unpopularity" of certain political issues (Covid restrictions, "woke" matters, etc) and associated figureheads than there actually is--y'know, acting as if Sara Singh is some kind of household name or there was a whole lot of popular 2018/9-specific news-media-and-water-cooler chatter about the ONDP being Corbyn when they could have been Blair.  It's a little like certain messengers spouting "people don't like modern art" with no regard for the possibility that regardless of their feelings about modern art, "people" don't like those messengers.  (Same reason why for all their claims to represent "people" as opposed to "elites", Libertarian parties worldwide tend to be fringe affairs.)

[RogueBeaver]

https://twitter.com/davidreevely/status/1504544172841345037

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/davidreevely/status/1504544172841345037

Here's a riddle, it's a killer - who the hell is Paul Miller?

[mileslunn]

What did Paul Miller do anyways to lead to not being able to run?

[DL]

What did Paul Miller do anyways to lead to not being able to run?

I don't know the details here but he had been involved in several HR-related scandals in the past and he is reputed to be a really nasty, toxic guy. Despite being from Hamilton and having the riding next door to Andrea Horwath - by all accounts he and Horwath have always detested each other - so I suspect that once there was a smoking gun, it was a very easy decision for her to dump him.

[adma]

What did Paul Miller do anyways to lead to not being able to run?

I don't know the details here but he had been involved in several HR-related scandals in the past and he is reputed to be a really nasty, toxic guy. Despite being from Hamilton and having the riding next door to Andrea Horwath - by all accounts he and Horwath have always detested each other - so I suspect that once there was a smoking gun, it was a very easy decision for her to dump him.

And his wife's a match for toxicity
https://www.thespec.com/news/hamilton-region/2021/08/17/hamilton-hwdsb-racism-scandal.html

[toaster]

Former Toronto Police Chief, Mark Saunders, is running for the Ontario PCs in Don Valley West (Kathleen Wynne's riding).

[mileslunn]

Former Toronto Police Chief, Mark Saunders, is running for the Ontario PCs in Don Valley West (Kathleen Wynne's riding).

Highly doubt he wins as if Wynne wasn't candidate may have won in 2018 (she was fairly popular MPP despite being not so popular elsewhere).  Any PC pick ups more likely to be blue collar ridings like Oshawa, Niagara Centre, and Essex.  Not saying PCs will gain those, but at least have a chance.  This might go for your Bay Street type Tory, but Ford is still seen as too populist even if he toned it down to win here.

[DL]

Interesting that in Kathleen Wynne's old riding of Don Valley West - the PCs are running the black former police chief of Toronto, the NDP is running the Jewish former Child Advocate of Ontario and the Ontario Liberals are running a generic corporate executive who no one has ever heard of. 

[beesley]

Interesting that in Kathleen Wynne's old riding of Don Valley West - the PCs are running the black former police chief of Toronto, the NDP is running the Jewish former Child Advocate of Ontario and the Ontario Liberals are running a generic corporate executive who no one has ever heard of. 

I wonder how much of a role Del Duca has in the process of candidate selection. The procedures seem very unclear to me.

[Pericles]

Interesting that in Kathleen Wynne's old riding of Don Valley West - the PCs are running the black former police chief of Toronto, the NDP is running the Jewish former Child Advocate of Ontario and the Ontario Liberals are running a generic corporate executive who no one has ever heard of. 

Kind of surprised that she didn't resign as an MP during her term. What has she been doing for the last four years?

[toaster]

Interesting that in Kathleen Wynne's old riding of Don Valley West - the PCs are running the black former police chief of Toronto, the NDP is running the Jewish former Child Advocate of Ontario and the Ontario Liberals are running a generic corporate executive who no one has ever heard of. 

Kind of surprised that she didn't resign as an MP during her term. What has she been doing for the last four years?

I think a big part of that was because the Liberals didn't want to chance losing the seat to the PCs (it was one of the closest ridings in the last election), and it also put the Liberals out of official party status (which is 8 seats in Ontario, they had 7 for a while I think had 8 for a time as well when Simard joined?).

[DL]

Interesting that in Kathleen Wynne's old riding of Don Valley West - the PCs are running the black former police chief of Toronto, the NDP is running the Jewish former Child Advocate of Ontario and the Ontario Liberals are running a generic corporate executive who no one has ever heard of. 

Kind of surprised that she didn't resign as an MP during her term. What has she been doing for the last four years?

Especially since the Liberals picked a new leader del Duca who has no seat in the legislature! Of course a big complication might have been that while Ford was extremely unpopular during his first two years in office, the pandemic (which coincided with Del Duca becoming OLP leader) put everything into a state of flux. I still think that a byelection in Don Valley West with Del Duca running would likely have been an easy Liberal hold...but as for why Wynne stuck around - maybe she actually likes being in the leg and has no other obvious job to switch to

[beesley]

Also given that Wynne didn't announce a resignation immediately, it made one harder as Nathalie Des Roisiers resigned fairly soon into the term.

[toaster]

Paul Miller will run as an independent in Hamilton East - Stoney Creek, wonder if this will split the vote at all.