Ontario Election 2022

[adma]

Rima Berns-McGown was never deputy leader, never had much of a profile and would have been totally unknown to about 99% of the population.

Sorry, you are correct.  I mixed her up with Sara Singh who still is Deputy Leader but who was the seemingly high profile Attorney General critic in 2018/2019 but was then demoted.

Whether RMMcG or SS, the public wouldn't have noticed, because Doug Ford's genetically Reagan-style "there you go again" re left-opposition.  And face it; the NDP's generic reputation precedes it.  It's *expected* to be a "woke-type" party, and lives or dies on that particular battlefield.

Like I said, I'm from a distance from Ontario and don't see a lot, but I did see opinion polls in Ontario around 2019 that showed the NDP as the official NDP even more unpopular than the government and I saw news stories and tweets quoting people saying the NDP was obsessed with SJW type stuff, and I believe the name most often mentioned with that was Sara Singh who was then the Attorney General critic.  She was then removed from that role and support for the NDP seemed to steadily rise after that.

I certainly acknowledge I could be wrong about this and obviously memory is a strange thing.

If you're thinking of "even more unpopular" strictly in raw terms of voting-choice opinion polls, that is true; the Tories remained at the top of the polls.  But again, that's more due to lack of media/parliamentary oxygen, and due to a more generic lingering skepticism re the ONDP as any kind of "natural governing party"--that is, the Orange Wave in '18 was conditional, the left-end version of Liberal rejection rather than something reflective of a more significant and enduring paradigm shift.  It was a "parked vote" that was *always* going to have a problem with baked-in NDP "wokeishness", and which was prepared to pivot back to the Libs at the earliest opportune moment.  And which is why "the left" (i.e. the anti-Tories) has remained split.  Anything deeper re "news stories and tweets" (or fixation upon Sara Singh) is right/libertarian silo stuff--most non-constituent voters didn't or don't even know Sara Singh enough to care, because her party's not in government, it's in opposition, and particularly in our fragmented/segmented media era that's insufficient to get people to "engage"--for one thing, I don't know if I've *ever* seen her depicted in a political cartoon (though maybe I *might* if I followed that particular twittersphere).

Besides, any polling doldrums circa 2019 and subsequent steady rise in support could well be the reflected glory of another Singh: federal leader Jagmeet, who spent most of that year as apparent Dead Leader Walking of a Dead Party Walking until "proving himself" in the election that fall.  (The inverse of declared provincial Lib support being the reflected glory of the federal brand--particularly during a period when the OLP was practically leaderless.)

[adma]

The NDP and Liberals have once again lept on a political landmine, they've come out against Doug Ford's lifting of the mask mandate and vaccine passport scheme which will almost certainly drive all anti-covid restriction voters back into doug ford's camp, despite him having implemented some of the strictest restrictions of any judristction.

How many of those kinds of, shall we say, electorally militant anti-restriction voters are there?  If anything'll drive them back into Doug Ford's camp, it's Randy Hillier (the most "charismatic" of the anti-restriction dissidents) opting to retire rather than to lead a provincial version of PPC.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The NDP and Liberals have once again lept on a political landmine, they've come out against Doug Ford's lifting of the mask mandate and vaccine passport scheme which will almost certainly drive all anti-covid restriction voters back into doug ford's camp, despite him having implemented some of the strictest restrictions of any judristction.

How many of those kinds of, shall we say, electorally militant anti-restriction voters are there?  If anything'll drive them back into Doug Ford's camp, it's Randy Hillier (the most "charismatic" of the anti-restriction dissidents) opting to retire rather than to lead a provincial version of PPC.

It's not about them, it's about covid-fatigued middle ground voters who are starting to be skeptical of the restrictions. By driving them all back to the PC camp, the liberals and NDP make it that much harder to get rid of ford.

[DL]

According to every poll the vast majority of Ontarians supported mask and vaccine mandates.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

According to every poll the vast majority of Ontarians supported mask and vaccine mandates.

Supported being the operative word, Doug Ford did in fact impose some of the longest lasting covid measures in line with that public support. Recent polls seem to suggest that's no longer the case.

And 40% of the vote is more than enough to win an election so long as the remaining 60% is equally divided.

[adma]

The NDP and Liberals have once again lept on a political landmine, they've come out against Doug Ford's lifting of the mask mandate and vaccine passport scheme which will almost certainly drive all anti-covid restriction voters back into doug ford's camp, despite him having implemented some of the strictest restrictions of any judristction.

How many of those kinds of, shall we say, electorally militant anti-restriction voters are there?  If anything'll drive them back into Doug Ford's camp, it's Randy Hillier (the most "charismatic" of the anti-restriction dissidents) opting to retire rather than to lead a provincial version of PPC.

It's not about them, it's about covid-fatigued middle ground voters who are starting to be skeptical of the restrictions. By driving them all back to the PC camp, the liberals and NDP make it that much harder to get rid of ford.

Critical word here: driving them all *back*--that is, presuming they were in that camp in the 2018 first place.  But you know something:  at this point, said restrictions are just one of an archipelago of issues where an OLP/ONDP stance (or more properly, Doug Ford's exploitation of said stances to his benefit) can drive those kinds of voters back.  As has been mentioned, "woke" issues.  Or opposition to Hwy 413 and the Bradford bypass.  That is, you'll find plenty of overlap among such issues when it comes to your kind of "middle ground voter" pigeonhole--and often founded upon a parallel restriction skepticism: more likely than not, they'd be the same sorts who'd roll their eyes at what they see as the overwrought environmental assessments that halt or compromise "necessary tranportation projects", or at the NIMBYS all up in arms over the province taking a wrecking ball to the Dominion Foundry which is, like, y'know, just a bunch of industrial sheds, it's not like it's the Parthenon or anything, etc. 

Once that's considered, Covid's just a pinprick in the broader scheme of things when it comes to said voters--the question remains of how "galvanizable" that base is, relative to the bigger picture..

[mileslunn]

I think COVID restrictions only a major issue if we see another spike.  If cases continue to fall, it will be largely a non-issue as people have short term memories so in that case people will have largely forgotten ones in past and won't be a huge push for more.  However if things spike, then it could get interesting.  I also think on COVID fatigue its probably more lockdowns or closures of certain businesses and restrictions on activities people oppose as opposed to masks and especially vaccine passports.  Some accept that masks and vaccine passports are way to keep things open.  If OLP and NDP were smart, they would emphasize this and make clear they are against further lockdowns and they favour these so things can stay open.

Still COVID is a tricky one and no one knows what the situation will look like in June either.

[adma]

I think COVID restrictions only a major issue if we see another spike.  If cases continue to fall, it will be largely a non-issue as people have short term memories so in that case people will have largely forgotten ones in past and won't be a huge push for more.  However if things spike, then it could get interesting.  I also think on COVID fatigue its probably more lockdowns or closures of certain businesses and restrictions on activities people oppose as opposed to masks and especially vaccine passports.  Some accept that masks and vaccine passports are way to keep things open.  If OLP and NDP were smart, they would emphasize this and make clear they are against further lockdowns and they favour these so things can stay open.

Still COVID is a tricky one and no one knows what the situation will look like in June either.

As has been mentioned before in this thread, Lib/NDP would be more "pro-sensible" than "pro-lockdown"--*nobody* desires lockdowns, except as a necessary evil.  But let's also not forget that even if one is generically "Covid-fatigued", it doesn't mean one'd side with the recent trucker protests; indeed, one might argue that they actually insulted, degraded, and debased the anti-restriction cause.  That is, if Lib/NDP wanted to be *really* cheap about it, they'd accuse Krista Ford Haynes of forcing her father's hand.

Which is why, ultimately, the vaunted "middle ground voter" as described here is just a metaphor for the "silent majority" euphemism.  People who are generically fed up with Big Government overreach, with red tape, with "elites" calling the shots.  That's a beat Doug Ford knows, it's always been a cornerstone of his method of politicking.  And as the most extreme Covid restrictions fade into the rear view, he can fold that kind of fatigue into his bigger schtick on behalf of the "little guy".  We needed "Big Government" for the duration; but now it's finished, let's move on...

ETA: and w/that in mind, it's not so much that the Libs or NDP actually *would* be pro-lockdown; however, Ford-style politicking would probably seek to *frame them* as pro-lockdown extremists.  The promise of further lockdowns as just more of that readily-gaslightable "far-left radicalism" which Ontarians sought to "move on from" in '18...

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

I think COVID restrictions only a major issue if we see another spike.  If cases continue to fall, it will be largely a non-issue as people have short term memories so in that case people will have largely forgotten ones in past and won't be a huge push for more.  However if things spike, then it could get interesting.  I also think on COVID fatigue its probably more lockdowns or closures of certain businesses and restrictions on activities people oppose as opposed to masks and especially vaccine passports.  Some accept that masks and vaccine passports are way to keep things open.  If OLP and NDP were smart, they would emphasize this and make clear they are against further lockdowns and they favour these so things can stay open.

Still COVID is a tricky one and no one knows what the situation will look like in June either.

As has been mentioned before in this thread, Lib/NDP would be more "pro-sensible" than "pro-lockdown"--*nobody* desires lockdowns, except as a necessary evil.  But let's also not forget that even if one is generically "Covid-fatigued", it doesn't mean one'd side with the recent trucker protests; indeed, one might argue that they actually insulted, degraded, and debased the anti-restriction cause.  That is, if Lib/NDP wanted to be *really* cheap about it, they'd accuse Krista Ford Haynes of forcing her father's hand.

Which is why, ultimately, the vaunted "middle ground voter" as described here is just a metaphor for the "silent majority" euphemism.  People who are generically fed up with Big Government overreach, with red tape, with "elites" calling the shots.  That's a beat Doug Ford knows, it's always been a cornerstone of his method of politicking.  And as the most extreme Covid restrictions fade into the rear view, he can fold that kind of fatigue into his bigger schtick on behalf of the "little guy".  We needed "Big Government" for the duration; but now it's finished, let's move on...

ETA: and w/that in mind, it's not so much that the Libs or NDP actually *would* be pro-lockdown; however, Ford-style politicking would probably seek to *frame them* as pro-lockdown extremists.  The promise of further lockdowns as just more of that readily-gaslightable "far-left radicalism" which Ontarians sought to "move on from" in '18...

How are they pro-sensible, both Howarth and Del Duca are tweeting about masks that should be kept around for 2 more weeks, what is going to be different in 2 more weeks ?. There are jurisdictions that have relaxed mask restrictions what difference would 2 weeks make. The issue is that a proportion of their support base wants covid restriction to be indefinite. They want maks wearing to become part of the new normal seeing as no different than say public nudity rules mandating you have to wear pants, and don't seem to think that being forces to disclose medical information everytime you want to enter an indoor establishment is a big deal. These people aren't a majority anymore than the hardcore convoy supports were a majority but they are loud and politically active.

Howarth and Del-Duca are not being pro-sensible covid measures, rather they are pandering to a group of people who are never going to feel safe from covid but in an ineffective way, and people can sense that. There's nothing sensible about what they are proposing.

[adma]

As has been mentioned before in this thread, Lib/NDP would be more "pro-sensible" than "pro-lockdown"--*nobody* desires lockdowns, except as a necessary evil.  But let's also not forget that even if one is generically "Covid-fatigued", it doesn't mean one'd side with the recent trucker protests; indeed, one might argue that they actually insulted, degraded, and debased the anti-restriction cause.  That is, if Lib/NDP wanted to be *really* cheap about it, they'd accuse Krista Ford Haynes of forcing her father's hand.

Which is why, ultimately, the vaunted "middle ground voter" as described here is just a metaphor for the "silent majority" euphemism.  People who are generically fed up with Big Government overreach, with red tape, with "elites" calling the shots.  That's a beat Doug Ford knows, it's always been a cornerstone of his method of politicking.  And as the most extreme Covid restrictions fade into the rear view, he can fold that kind of fatigue into his bigger schtick on behalf of the "little guy".  We needed "Big Government" for the duration; but now it's finished, let's move on...

ETA: and w/that in mind, it's not so much that the Libs or NDP actually *would* be pro-lockdown; however, Ford-style politicking would probably seek to *frame them* as pro-lockdown extremists.  The promise of further lockdowns as just more of that readily-gaslightable "far-left radicalism" which Ontarians sought to "move on from" in '18...

How are they pro-sensible, both Howarth and Del Duca are tweeting about masks that should be kept around for 2 more weeks, what is going to be different in 2 more weeks ?. There are jurisdictions that have relaxed mask restrictions what difference would 2 weeks make. The issue is that a proportion of their support base wants covid restriction to be indefinite. They want maks wearing to become part of the new normal seeing as no different than say public nudity rules mandating you have to wear pants, and don't seem to think that being forces to disclose medical information everytime you want to enter an indoor establishment is a big deal. These people aren't a majority anymore than the hardcore convoy supports were a majority but they are loud and politically active.

Howarth and Del-Duca are not being pro-sensible covid measures, rather they are pandering to a group of people who are never going to feel safe from covid but in an ineffective way, and people can sense that. There's nothing sensible about what they are proposing.

Uh, it's 2 more weeks.  It's not 2 more months, or 2 more years.  So re "what difference would it make", if I may be glass-half-empty/half-full about it, to those outside of the antimask/anti-restriction echo chamber, that kind and that scale of bought time is scarcely any kind of political straw breaking the camel's back.  In a way, the fact that it's only that "what difference would it make" apron of time demonstrates that Horwath & Del Duca are being *restrained* here--not to mention mindful of who might be pulling the strings on Ford's decision-making (his own daughter or daughters not excluded).  It's only the aforementioned echo chamber that's voicing things in binding terms of "next thing you know, it'll be...".  In reality, most voters (including those who might wind up opting for the PC-incumbent status quo) are kind of going-along-with-the-flow and insufficiently incensed, even if they might passively/generically feel that restrictions suck and a little loosening-up wouldn't hurt at this point.  Sure, the echo chamber might refer to them as "sheeple" because they're insufficiently *militant* about their dislike of restrictions; but, tough t!tty--maybe their non-militancy is an implicit critique of those prone to using terms like "sheeple", if you get my drift.  (Plus, that going-along-with-the-flow contingent is probably aware that the most recent extreme measures were specifically due to the Omicron variant eruption and authorities trying to get a handle on *that*--otherwise, practically to the end of '21, we *were* on the apparent way to so-called freedom.)

So much as pandemics become endemics, I suspect that this'll all be absorbed into a broader pre-existing archipelago of "these people aren't a majority...but they are loud and politically active" ammunition that the FordCons can use against the opposition.  Again, in the same category as environmental activists, "hysterical preservationists", and other such so-called "agents of obstruction" standing in the way of the 413, the Bradford Bypass, the Ontario Line and Ontario Place "renewal", etc.

Also, watch it with the "people can sense that".  I've seen "people" used in that standalone way (i.e. unqualified by "some", "many", "a lot of", etc) as a deceptively universalizing weasel word--sort of a passive-aggressive setting up of a duality vs "elites" or "radicals" or "activists".

[toaster]

The extra 2 week, as I understand it, is to ensure all the March Break related travel doesn't have an impact on kids in school.  Students/staff have never returned after a prolonged break without going online.  March Break (x2), Winter Break (x2), it's always been straight to online learning.  Now kids finally can return to school after a break, and let's just be cautious and keep the masks for 2 weeks.  That's what sensible people are saying, and why 2 more weeks is being suggested.

[DC Al Fine]

Adma, if you're referring to a party's COVID position as "pro-sensible" complaining about the Ford Tories using politically motivated labels for their opponents' positions is a bit much.

[adma]

Adma, if you're referring to a party's COVID position as "pro-sensible" complaining about the Ford Tories using politically motivated labels for their opponents' positions is a bit much.

"Pro-sensible" means "let's not get hasty, bub".  Which is why I'm emphasizing that said opponents' positions are actually *restrained*, all things considered.  It's only that the Twitter echo chamber wants to aggressively play the "next thing you know, it'll be..." card to the max.

The general mean of Ontarians might not like lockdowns; but they don't dislike them to the extent that they can't see the more militant anti-lockdowners (i.e. those who get Youtubed getting into tussles at restaurants and retail outlets, or those who march to Queen's Park each and every Saturday) as the self-owning hee-haw hee-haws they are.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The extra 2 week, as I understand it, is to ensure all the March Break related travel doesn't have an impact on kids in school.  Students/staff have never returned after a prolonged break without going online.  March Break (x2), Winter Break (x2), it's always been straight to online learning.  Now kids finally can return to school after a break, and let's just be cautious and keep the masks for 2 weeks.  That's what sensible people are saying, and why 2 more weeks is being suggested.

Maks will do literally nothing to change any travel related risks(which are essentially new underected variants) given that it's not like Ontario is some sort of zero-covid bubble. Masks aren't bulletproof and unless you're going for a zero-covid strategy won't make a difference.

[adma]

The extra 2 week, as I understand it, is to ensure all the March Break related travel doesn't have an impact on kids in school.  Students/staff have never returned after a prolonged break without going online.  March Break (x2), Winter Break (x2), it's always been straight to online learning.  Now kids finally can return to school after a break, and let's just be cautious and keep the masks for 2 weeks.  That's what sensible people are saying, and why 2 more weeks is being suggested.

Maks will do literally nothing to change any travel related risks(which are essentially new underected variants) given that it's not like Ontario is some sort of zero-covid bubble. Masks aren't bulletproof and unless you're going for a zero-covid strategy won't make a difference.

Consider this:  masks are just about the most benign "Covid inconvenience" there is.  They're just something you wear, they're not on the scale of enforced lockdowns or capacity restrictions.  The worst they do (besides fogging up glasses when worn improperly) is bruise a few egos who feel misplaced-virility humiliation at having to wear "face diapers".  If one were to enter a post-Covid world in a slow-rollout way, keeping masks on for just a bit longer is practically nothing.  So if the *actual* middle-ground voter isn't politically worked up over the issue, that's why.

In the end, this is an election thread, not one about Covid and masking.  And at least I sought to frame the "Covid question" (and the future trajectory thereof) in broader and more election-centric terms.

[Secretary of State Liberal Hack]

The extra 2 week, as I understand it, is to ensure all the March Break related travel doesn't have an impact on kids in school.  Students/staff have never returned after a prolonged break without going online.  March Break (x2), Winter Break (x2), it's always been straight to online learning.  Now kids finally can return to school after a break, and let's just be cautious and keep the masks for 2 weeks.  That's what sensible people are saying, and why 2 more weeks is being suggested.

Maks will do literally nothing to change any travel related risks(which are essentially new underected variants) given that it's not like Ontario is some sort of zero-covid bubble. Masks aren't bulletproof and unless you're going for a zero-covid strategy won't make a difference.

Consider this:  masks are just about the most benign "Covid inconvenience" there is.  They're just something you wear, they're not on the scale of enforced lockdowns or capacity restrictions.  The worst they do (besides fogging up glasses when worn improperly) is bruise a few egos who feel misplaced-virility humiliation at having to wear "face diapers".  If one were to enter a post-Covid world in a slow-rollout way, keeping masks on for just a bit longer is practically nothing.  So if the *actual* middle-ground voter isn't politically worked up over the issue, that's why.

In the end, this is an election thread, not one about Covid and masking.  And at least I sought to frame the "Covid question" (and the future trajectory thereof) in broader and more election-centric terms.

They're annoying to wear and are a very visible sign of the pandemic, given how hostile parts of the liberal party and NDP are to the idea that it shouldn't be criminal not to wear one it signals they might actually be in favour of far more stringent restrictions.

Like at what point should we be able to move on the post-covid world, Doug Ford is the only one offering a clear answer. Neither the NDP or Liberals can win if they can't offer such an answer.

[adma]

Consider this:  masks are just about the most benign "Covid inconvenience" there is.  They're just something you wear, they're not on the scale of enforced lockdowns or capacity restrictions.  The worst they do (besides fogging up glasses when worn improperly) is bruise a few egos who feel misplaced-virility humiliation at having to wear "face diapers".  If one were to enter a post-Covid world in a slow-rollout way, keeping masks on for just a bit longer is practically nothing.  So if the *actual* middle-ground voter isn't politically worked up over the issue, that's why.

In the end, this is an election thread, not one about Covid and masking.  And at least I sought to frame the "Covid question" (and the future trajectory thereof) in broader and more election-centric terms.

They're annoying to wear and are a very visible sign of the pandemic, given how hostile parts of the liberal party and NDP are to the idea that it shouldn't be criminal not to wear one it signals they might actually be in favour of far more stringent restrictions.

"Annoying to wear" for an additional 2 weeks is nothing compared to lost business due to an additional 2 weeks of lockdowns.  That is, the benignness of masks makes them a comparative nothingburger of an issue.  And of course the Libs/NDP would be in favour of far more stringent restrictions...*if* something that out-Omicrons Omicron came down the pipeline.  But consider, too, that in some ways, vax passports aside, the Omicron-triggered restrictions were *less* hyperactively universal and all-consuming than those which kicked in in the spring/summer 2020 days of the pandemic, when all sorts of stores and restaurants were cold-closing to all but home delivery and everyone was hunkering down and not doing anything but collecting CERB because everyone was still getting a feel on where this pandemic was going, how to handle it, etc.  By early '22, we had more of a handle on things; thus the Omicron world somehow didn't feel *quite* as ghost-towny as the early-to-mid-2020 Covid world.  And that would have been the case no matter which party was in charge.

And again, given the nature of the FordCons, this is where grousing over "more stringent restrictions" real and promised and down the pipeline might as well become more of an "endemic" than "pandemic" thing.  Annoyance over masking and social distancing being folded into, say, annoyance over not being able to do what one wants w/one's property because the nervous-nellie locals declared the neighbourhood to be a Heritage Conservation District.  *That* sort of thing.

Like at what point should we be able to move on the post-covid world, Doug Ford is the only one offering a clear answer. Neither the NDP or Liberals can win if they can't offer such an answer.

Doug Ford's method of governmental operation is that of cutting off oxygen:  "only I can offer a clear answer, because I'm in charge and you're not, so there, nyaaah".

[DL]

One of two things will happen. If Covid cases continue to fall and/or remain low then by the time we are in the campaign in May this will all be a non-issue and everyone will agree to continuing the status quo though the NDP will likely still push for more sick days and better school ventilation. But Covid will basically be a non-issue. The other possibility is that we have new wave of cases line what we now see in Europe and hospitals get overwhelmed and it’s like April 2021 all over again, in which case the NDP and Liberals get to say “I told you so” to Ford and Ford is then blamed for the disaster in the hospitals and had to impose new mandates.

[adma]

If Covid cases continue to fall and/or remain low then by the time we are in the campaign in May this will all be a non-issue and everyone will agree to continuing the status quo though the NDP will likely still push for more sick days and better school ventilation.

Which is really a converse way of going about it: rather than a blunt "Covid is over; let's move on", it'd be a constructive "let's see what we can do to prevent future Covid-style crises".  (Of course, if one is of a "Crisis?  What crisis?  It was a 2-year pain in the butt, that's all it was" POV, there'd be no convincing.  And we're not even getting into Plandemic-type POVs.)

[Ontarois]

Rima Berns-McGown was never deputy leader, never had much of a profile and would have been totally unknown to about 99% of the population.

Sorry, you are correct.  I mixed her up with Sara Singh who still is Deputy Leader but who was the seemingly high profile Attorney General critic in 2018/2019 but was then demoted.

Whether RMMcG or SS, the public wouldn't have noticed, because Doug Ford's genetically Reagan-style "there you go again" re left-opposition.  And face it; the NDP's generic reputation precedes it.  It's *expected* to be a "woke-type" party, and lives or dies on that particular battlefield.

Like I said, I'm from a distance from Ontario and don't see a lot, but I did see opinion polls in Ontario around 2019 that showed the NDP as the official NDP even more unpopular than the government and I saw news stories and tweets quoting people saying the NDP was obsessed with SJW type stuff, and I believe the name most often mentioned with that was Sara Singh who was then the Attorney General critic.  She was then removed from that role and support for the NDP seemed to steadily rise after that.

I certainly acknowledge I could be wrong about this and obviously memory is a strange thing.

I hardly think that most Ontario residents primary (or even close to fifth place) priority in deciding upon who to support in the upcoming provincial election is related to any "woke-type" issues.

To non-Ontarians, there seems to be an unawareness that the significant majority of Ontario voters think that federal leaders lead every political party until a provinical campaign in "underway in earnest".  If a simple question were asked in an Ontario opinion poll at present of "In the next provincial election who will be leading the [insert name] party?", I fully expect that more Ontario voters would respond Justin Trudeau than Steven Del Duca.

In the 2018 provincial election, despite Kathleen Wynne registering in every opinion poll at the time as the least popular provincial premier across Canada, it was not until the first leadership debate was held that Ontario Liberal Party support in provincial polls declined significantly and IMHO average Ontario voters were "put on notice" of who was actually leading the three largest parties in the actual provincial election underway.  It sounds odd to non-Ontarians, but the voters surveyed in one opinion poll could respond that they did not like Wynne once her name was put into the question, while voters in a generic opinion poll about political party preferences would have been thinking about Justin Trudeau when answering a generic question of "Which party will you support in the next Ontario election?"

Just cuz it happened last time does not mean it must happen again this time.  But, Del Duca has made so little impression on Ontario voters that I think his appearance in the first Ontario leaders' debate this time will also harm Liberal levels of support, just by reminding Ontario voters that Justin Trudeau is not actually the Liberal party leader for the upcoming provincial election.

Anything can happen, but Andrea Horwath is a seasoned debater and has a "net positive" in the role of party leader in opinion polls, while Del Duca is unknown and bland, at best.  I am not willing to mortgage my home on it, but I would bet that there will be a significant decline in Liberal Party support after the first provincial Leaders' debate (unless there is some other significant event that calls to the attention of "average voters" [yunno, the kind who do not post on boards like this one] who is actually leading the Ontario parties) in the 2022 Ontario election, similar to the decline that occurred in the 2018 election.  Del Duca does not have the intense levels of dislike that Wynne had developed by early 2018, but having no impression of the Liberal Party Leader among Ontario voters should be close enough to the conditions that existed in 2018 to scare Ontario Liberal party "election planners", when there is every reason to believe that Horwath will make a similar good impression on Ontario voters to what she did in 2018 once Ontario voters are reminded who leads each provincial party.

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

Rima Berns-McGown was never deputy leader, never had much of a profile and would have been totally unknown to about 99% of the population.

Sorry, you are correct.  I mixed her up with Sara Singh who still is Deputy Leader but who was the seemingly high profile Attorney General critic in 2018/2019 but was then demoted.

Whether RMMcG or SS, the public wouldn't have noticed, because Doug Ford's genetically Reagan-style "there you go again" re left-opposition.  And face it; the NDP's generic reputation precedes it.  It's *expected* to be a "woke-type" party, and lives or dies on that particular battlefield.

Like I said, I'm from a distance from Ontario and don't see a lot, but I did see opinion polls in Ontario around 2019 that showed the NDP as the official NDP even more unpopular than the government and I saw news stories and tweets quoting people saying the NDP was obsessed with SJW type stuff, and I believe the name most often mentioned with that was Sara Singh who was then the Attorney General critic.  She was then removed from that role and support for the NDP seemed to steadily rise after that.

I certainly acknowledge I could be wrong about this and obviously memory is a strange thing.

I hardly think that most Ontario residents primary (or even close to fifth place) priority in deciding upon who to support in the upcoming provincial election is related to any "woke-type" issues.

To non-Ontarians, there seems to be an unawareness that the significant majority of Ontario voters think that federal leaders lead every political party until a provinical campaign in "underway in earnest".  If a simple question were asked in an Ontario opinion poll at present of "In the next provincial election who will be leading the [insert name] party?", I fully expect that more Ontario voters would respond Justin Trudeau than Steven Del Duca.

In the 2018 provincial election, despite Kathleen Wynne registering in every opinion poll at the time as the least popular provincial premier across Canada, it was not until the first leadership debate was held that Ontario Liberal Party support in provincial polls declined significantly and IMHO average Ontario voters were "put on notice" of who was actually leading the three largest parties in the actual provincial election underway.  It sounds odd to non-Ontarians, but the voters surveyed in one opinion poll could respond that they did not like Wynne once her name was put into the question, while voters in a generic opinion poll about political party preferences would have been thinking about Justin Trudeau when answering a generic question of "Which party will you support in the next Ontario election?"

Just cuz it happened last time does not mean it must happen again this time.  But, Del Duca has made so little impression on Ontario voters that I think his appearance in the first Ontario leaders' debate this time will also harm Liberal levels of support, just by reminding Ontario voters that Justin Trudeau is not actually the Liberal party leader for the upcoming provincial election.

Anything can happen, but Andrea Horwath is a seasoned debater and has a "net positive" in the role of party leader in opinion polls, while Del Duca is unknown and bland, at best.  I am not willing to mortgage my home on it, but I would bet that there will be a significant decline in Liberal Party support after the first provincial Leaders' debate (unless there is some other significant event that calls to the attention of "average voters" [yunno, the kind who do not post on boards like this one] who is actually leading the Ontario parties) in the 2022 Ontario election, similar to the decline that occurred in the 2018 election.  Del Duca does not have the intense levels of dislike that Wynne had developed by early 2018, but having no impression of the Liberal Party Leader among Ontario voters should be close enough to the conditions that existed in 2018 to scare Ontario Liberal party "election planners", when there is every reason to believe that Horwath will make a similar good impression on Ontario voters to what she did in 2018 once Ontario voters are reminded who leads each provincial party.

If PC support is pushing 40%, as suggested by the most recent Leger, this ultimately won't matter beyond continuing the malaise of Ontario Liberals. A 40-30-20-10 (10 for Greens+others) breakdown, or something similar to that, would just result in a PC majority.

[Ontarois]

Rima Berns-McGown was never deputy leader, never had much of a profile and would have been totally unknown to about 99% of the population.

Sorry, you are correct.  I mixed her up with Sara Singh who still is Deputy Leader but who was the seemingly high profile Attorney General critic in 2018/2019 but was then demoted.

Whether RMMcG or SS, the public wouldn't have noticed, because Doug Ford's genetically Reagan-style "there you go again" re left-opposition.  And face it; the NDP's generic reputation precedes it.  It's *expected* to be a "woke-type" party, and lives or dies on that particular battlefield.

Like I said, I'm from a distance from Ontario and don't see a lot, but I did see opinion polls in Ontario around 2019 that showed the NDP as the official NDP even more unpopular than the government and I saw news stories and tweets quoting people saying the NDP was obsessed with SJW type stuff, and I believe the name most often mentioned with that was Sara Singh who was then the Attorney General critic.  She was then removed from that role and support for the NDP seemed to steadily rise after that.

I certainly acknowledge I could be wrong about this and obviously memory is a strange thing.

I hardly think that most Ontario residents primary (or even close to fifth place) priority in deciding upon who to support in the upcoming provincial election is related to any "woke-type" issues.

To non-Ontarians, there seems to be an unawareness that the significant majority of Ontario voters think that federal leaders lead every political party until a provinical campaign in "underway in earnest".  If a simple question were asked in an Ontario opinion poll at present of "In the next provincial election who will be leading the [insert name] party?", I fully expect that more Ontario voters would respond Justin Trudeau than Steven Del Duca.

In the 2018 provincial election, despite Kathleen Wynne registering in every opinion poll at the time as the least popular provincial premier across Canada, it was not until the first leadership debate was held that Ontario Liberal Party support in provincial polls declined significantly and IMHO average Ontario voters were "put on notice" of who was actually leading the three largest parties in the actual provincial election underway.  It sounds odd to non-Ontarians, but the voters surveyed in one opinion poll could respond that they did not like Wynne once her name was put into the question, while voters in a generic opinion poll about political party preferences would have been thinking about Justin Trudeau when answering a generic question of "Which party will you support in the next Ontario election?"

Just cuz it happened last time does not mean it must happen again this time.  But, Del Duca has made so little impression on Ontario voters that I think his appearance in the first Ontario leaders' debate this time will also harm Liberal levels of support, just by reminding Ontario voters that Justin Trudeau is not actually the Liberal party leader for the upcoming provincial election.

Anything can happen, but Andrea Horwath is a seasoned debater and has a "net positive" in the role of party leader in opinion polls, while Del Duca is unknown and bland, at best.  I am not willing to mortgage my home on it, but I would bet that there will be a significant decline in Liberal Party support after the first provincial Leaders' debate (unless there is some other significant event that calls to the attention of "average voters" [yunno, the kind who do not post on boards like this one] who is actually leading the Ontario parties) in the 2022 Ontario election, similar to the decline that occurred in the 2018 election.  Del Duca does not have the intense levels of dislike that Wynne had developed by early 2018, but having no impression of the Liberal Party Leader among Ontario voters should be close enough to the conditions that existed in 2018 to scare Ontario Liberal party "election planners", when there is every reason to believe that Horwath will make a similar good impression on Ontario voters to what she did in 2018 once Ontario voters are reminded who leads each provincial party.

If PC support is pushing 40%, as suggested by the most recent Leger, this ultimately won't matter beyond continuing the malaise of Ontario Liberals. A 40-30-20-10 (10 for Greens+others) breakdown, or something similar to that, would just result in a PC majority.

More than 95% of the time, governing parties see their polling numbers go down once an election is called.  In general, Premiers/Prime Ministers get 5 times (at least) the coverage in media reports that opposition leaders get, and more than one opposition leader means that the non-government "balancing side" of media coverage tends to get split among those opposition leaders.

If the PC support three months in advance of election day is only 40%, it is highly likely to go down from there.  If it goes down to 38% PC, 30% NDP, 22% Lib and 10% Others, I agree the Tories will get re-elected.  If the polls change to 37% PC, 36% NDP, 14% Lib, and 135 Others, the NDP's greater share of "no hope" ridings would make it likely to get more seats than the PCs would get.

This is all crazy speculation three months in advance of election day -- "a day is a year in politics".  Again, I think that Ontario voters have a significant past pattern of ignoring provincial politics in favour of federal politics, until the day of the provincial election is much, much closer.

[Benjamin Frank]

Rima Berns-McGown was never deputy leader, never had much of a profile and would have been totally unknown to about 99% of the population.

Sorry, you are correct.  I mixed her up with Sara Singh who still is Deputy Leader but who was the seemingly high profile Attorney General critic in 2018/2019 but was then demoted.

Whether RMMcG or SS, the public wouldn't have noticed, because Doug Ford's genetically Reagan-style "there you go again" re left-opposition.  And face it; the NDP's generic reputation precedes it.  It's *expected* to be a "woke-type" party, and lives or dies on that particular battlefield.

Like I said, I'm from a distance from Ontario and don't see a lot, but I did see opinion polls in Ontario around 2019 that showed the NDP as the official NDP even more unpopular than the government and I saw news stories and tweets quoting people saying the NDP was obsessed with SJW type stuff, and I believe the name most often mentioned with that was Sara Singh who was then the Attorney General critic.  She was then removed from that role and support for the NDP seemed to steadily rise after that.

I certainly acknowledge I could be wrong about this and obviously memory is a strange thing.

I hardly think that most Ontario residents primary (or even close to fifth place) priority in deciding upon who to support in the upcoming provincial election is related to any "woke-type" issues.

To non-Ontarians, there seems to be an unawareness that the significant majority of Ontario voters think that federal leaders lead every political party until a provinical campaign in "underway in earnest".  If a simple question were asked in an Ontario opinion poll at present of "In the next provincial election who will be leading the [insert name] party?", I fully expect that more Ontario voters would respond Justin Trudeau than Steven Del Duca.

In the 2018 provincial election, despite Kathleen Wynne registering in every opinion poll at the time as the least popular provincial premier across Canada, it was not until the first leadership debate was held that Ontario Liberal Party support in provincial polls declined significantly and IMHO average Ontario voters were "put on notice" of who was actually leading the three largest parties in the actual provincial election underway.  It sounds odd to non-Ontarians, but the voters surveyed in one opinion poll could respond that they did not like Wynne once her name was put into the question, while voters in a generic opinion poll about political party preferences would have been thinking about Justin Trudeau when answering a generic question of "Which party will you support in the next Ontario election?"

Just cuz it happened last time does not mean it must happen again this time.  But, Del Duca has made so little impression on Ontario voters that I think his appearance in the first Ontario leaders' debate this time will also harm Liberal levels of support, just by reminding Ontario voters that Justin Trudeau is not actually the Liberal party leader for the upcoming provincial election.

Anything can happen, but Andrea Horwath is a seasoned debater and has a "net positive" in the role of party leader in opinion polls, while Del Duca is unknown and bland, at best.  I am not willing to mortgage my home on it, but I would bet that there will be a significant decline in Liberal Party support after the first provincial Leaders' debate (unless there is some other significant event that calls to the attention of "average voters" [yunno, the kind who do not post on boards like this one] who is actually leading the Ontario parties) in the 2022 Ontario election, similar to the decline that occurred in the 2018 election.  Del Duca does not have the intense levels of dislike that Wynne had developed by early 2018, but having no impression of the Liberal Party Leader among Ontario voters should be close enough to the conditions that existed in 2018 to scare Ontario Liberal party "election planners", when there is every reason to believe that Horwath will make a similar good impression on Ontario voters to what she did in 2018 once Ontario voters are reminded who leads each provincial party.

I'm not sure how much this relates to what I said. I was not referring to the upcoming election but to 2018-2019 when the NDP, led by Sara Singh as Attorney General critic, supposedly focused on 'woke' issues and the harm that apparently did to the NDP in the polls.

I was not actually referring to, as was mentioned earlier, the NDP being lower in overall support at that time than they P.Cs, but to approval/disapproval ratings  which showed, again my memory is far from perfect, either the NDP or Andrea Horwath with lower approval/disapproval ratings than the P.Cs or Doug Ford at that time, which, given how poorly Doug Ford and the P.Cs were doing, is quite incredible.

So, on the one hand we have people here who I think are assuming American style attitudes towards Covid onto Ontarians and the consequences that could have on the election, versus arguing that Ontarians aren't concerned about overly 'woke' politicians when that seems to be one of the main things hurting the Democrats in the United States (of course inflation concerns are the main thing.)

[adma]

I'm not sure how much this relates to what I said. I was not referring to the upcoming election but to 2018-2019 when the NDP, led by Sara Singh as Attorney General critic, supposedly focused on 'woke' issues and the harm that apparently did to the NDP in the polls.

I was not actually referring to, as was mentioned earlier, the NDP being lower in overall support at that time than they P.Cs, but to approval/disapproval ratings  which showed, again my memory is far from perfect, either the NDP or Andrea Horwath with lower approval/disapproval ratings than the P.Cs or Doug Ford at that time, which, given how poorly Doug Ford and the P.Cs were doing, is quite incredible.

So, on the one hand we have peopple here who I think are assuming American style attitudes towards Covid onto Ontarians and the consequences that could have on the election, versus arguing that Ontarians aren't concerned about overly 'woke' politicians when that seems to be one of the main things hurting the Democrats in the United States (of course inflation concerns are the main thing.)

Actually, in practice, Horwath has *always* tended to poll in net positives as a leader--in her sleeper way, she succeeds according to the "leader you can have a beer with" barometer of measurement.  But if you're going to pinpoint something 2018-19ish as a critical moment, keep in mind that (a) any pre-Covid net positives for the Ford gov't probably had less to do w/Ford per se than the "adults in the room" who were actually in charge (i.e. at its best, it was a competent Patrick Brown gov't in Doug Ford drag); (b) in that eternal federal-overshadowing-provincial game, the ONDP was likely hampered by association with the federal party in its pre-2019-election doldrums when it still appeared that Jagmeet Singh was more liability than asset, and (c) Doug Ford's way of governing isn't the sort to give Official Opposition oxygen, much less an NDP Official Opposition with a "nails on chalkboard" (Doug's label) female leader.  Plus (d) the major media comfort zone in Ontario is still with a LibCon binary, so they don't know how to handle an NDP Official Opposition as anything but a presumptive "momentary condition".

Sara Singh is invisible to most Ontario voters, much as the Horwath ONDP was pressed into invisibility as Official Opposition; and lower approval/disapproval ratings were more a byproduct of said invisibility with a touch of federal reflected inglory-at-the-time.  Which is a reason why one should watch it with how one uses political Twitter as a litmus of political popularity--particularly as a lot of it is inside baseball courtesy of your usual figurative cast of young-Cons-with-punchable-faces and young-Libs-eager-to-non-sequitur-the-Dippers (or young Dippers who are self-righteous sitting ducks for either).

[The Right Honourable Martin Brian Mulroney PC CC GOQ]

More than 95% of the time, governing parties see their polling numbers go down once an election is called.

I'm not sure this is true. I can think of at least the 2011, 2015 and 2019 federal elections where the governing party - Tories in the first two cases, Liberals in the third - remained very steady in the polls throughout the writ period, in three very different elections. Same goes for the 2014 Ontario election where the Wynne Liberals actually improved over the writ period. It's not such an iron-clad rule.