California Senate 2024 - Schiff (D) vs Garvey (R)

[All Along The Watchtower]

Smart moves by Schiff lately.

What did Porter wrong that her campaign seems to flop that badly? She was considered a or the favorite a few months ago.

"Normie progs" tend to have a hard time in large primaries, because they get boxed out by both the mainstream fave (Schiff, Biden) and the true believer of the left (Bernie, Lee).

Yes, Katie Porter has Elizabeth Warren vibes (and was a student of Warren’s at Harvard Law). That doesn’t bode well for her campaign, but we’ll see.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Porter is surging again, as I said if its Schiff v Garvey Schiff or if it's Schiff v Porter it's Porter

[Minnesota Mike]

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1758677854450229386

LOL. Democrats are airing more ads designed to boost their preferred Republican than the Republicans are running about themselves.

[President Punxsutawney Phil]

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1758677854450229386
LOL. Democrats are airing more ads designed to boost their preferred Republican than the Republicans are running about themselves.

McCaskill called...she wants her tactics back.

[Oryxslayer]

I mean in this case it's not preferred Republican, it's that she's in a race for second with a republican.  So pulling GOP votes from Garvey reduces his total and lowers the bar she must cross.

It's like what I noted above, Porter hasn't done anything wrong right now,  the GOP voters are just seemingly consolidating. Will this help disperse them? We can only wait and see.

[Holmes]

I decided to fill in the bubble for Porter. Was hoping Lee's campaign would go somewhere but it didn't. Schiff's running a garbage campaign and I don't want a "hey guys Trump hates me" Senator. I convinced the mother- and siblings-in-law to vote for Porter too.

[Antonio the Sixth]

I decided to fill in the bubble for Porter. Was hoping Lee's campaign would go somewhere but it didn't. Schiff's running a garbage campaign and I don't want a "hey guys Trump hates me" Senator. I convinced the mother- and siblings-in-law to vote for Porter too.

Welcome to Team Effective Progressives, comrade!

[Mr. Smith]

Perhaps I'll get around to asking the rest of the fam who they went for, I suspect my Sis is in the Leehive if paying attention, and Dad's probably gone for Schiff.

[RFK Jr.’s Brain Worm]

I already turned in my ballot for Porter. My dad is going to vote for her as well. Not sure if my mom will vote Schiff or Porter.

[Minnesota Mike]

Since it's an internal I won't start new thread for it in the Polls section but I thought I would pass it along. Things appear to be working out perfectly for Schiff.

https://twitter.com/ccadelago/status/1760760656897470691

[President Johnson]

I'd honestly prefer a Democrat vs. Republican race instead of two Democrats fighting it out. Porter really seems to have lost momentum, if not cratered. But Schiff will be an excellent senator.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Garvey isn't getting 24 but 20 percent

[Minnesota Mike]

A little more than a week out the early vote in CA is looking old, white, and more Republican than usual (numbers from PDI). 57% of the returned MIB are from people over 65, 80% from people over 50. 70%  of the vote is from white voters. Dems do hold a D+17 advantage on returned ballots but registration is D+23. The pace of ballot returns is also slow trailing the 22 numbers. All this is probably a good sign for Garvey and in turn for Schiff. 

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Schiff is Sen Elect

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

This campaign has really been a masterclass by Schiff.

[Bismarck]

This campaign has really been a masterclass by Schiff.

A pro corporate democrat who got to act like a star in the Trump impeachment was always going to win.

[Born to Slay. Forced to Work.]

This campaign has really been a masterclass by Schiff.

A pro corporate democrat who got to act like a star in the Trump impeachment was always going to win.

Yea this was Schiff’s race to loose. California isn’t come super socialist progressive place, it’s pretty mainstream democratic

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

This campaign has really been a masterclass by Schiff.

A pro corporate democrat who got to act like a star in the Trump impeachment was always going to win.

Yea this was Schiff’s race to loose. California isn’t come super socialist progressive place, it’s pretty mainstream democratic

He was always going to come in first, but he was essentially running two races at the same time - having to try to ensure his opponent in the general was one he could win. Not to mention Lee's attempt to essentially snatch the seat and end the race midway through. Impressively played on his part if Garvey does come in #2.

[Mr. Smith]

This campaign has really been a masterclass by Schiff.

More like an Epic Fail by Lee and Porter. Schiff pulled a Luigi and won by doing nothing.

[wnwnwn]

What are people talking about?
The results still don't come
Have they been confused by olawakandi?

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

What are people talking about?
The results still don't come
Have they been confused by olawakandi?

Tracking the polls. Schiff has been a wire-to-wire leader, and Garvey seems to be increasingly pulling into second place.

[Holmes]

What are people talking about?
The results still don't come
Have they been confused by olawakandi?

We got a bunch of non-Californians calling the race nice days (and eight months) early for the generic one.

[Schiff for Senate]

Is it too late for Porter to just switch to running for her House seat again? This looks like a serious miscalculation for her.

Filing deadlines are way behind us.

Yup, that ship had sailed. I wouldn't say that her political career is over after this unless she pulls it off. She could try a comeback and run for some statewide offices in 2026 below governor (which already has enough actual or potential high-profile candidates). Running for gov later on might be easier from a statewide office anyway.

The BoE member for Orange County is 85 and may or may not be running for Porter’s seat (I keep finding conflicting info) so she can definitely run for that in 2026

I'm sorry, an 85 year old is running for Congress? Jesus Christ.

[brucejoel99]

Is it too late for Porter to just switch to running for her House seat again? This looks like a serious miscalculation for her.

Filing deadlines are way behind us.

Yup, that ship had sailed. I wouldn't say that her political career is over after this unless she pulls it off. She could try a comeback and run for some statewide offices in 2026 below governor (which already has enough actual or potential high-profile candidates). Running for gov later on might be easier from a statewide office anyway.

The BoE member for Orange County is 85 and may or may not be running for Porter’s seat (I keep finding conflicting info) so she can definitely run for that in 2026

I'm sorry, an 85 year old is running for Congress? Jesus Christ.

He was running for CA-47 on an explicit pledge to serve only 1 term so that Porter can re-run for her House seat in 2026 in the event that she doesn't win this year's Senate seat, but don't worry, he dropped out earlier this month... to run for a separate state altogether's Senate seat:

Surprised nobody mentioned Mike Schaefer. He was a San Diego City Councilor and then he ran for 33 offices and won the California State Board of Equalization in a upset in 2018.

With Schaefer, his residence where he ran went as follows: San Diego, CA -> Las Vegas, NV -> San Diego, CA -> Baltimore, MD -> San Diego, CA -> Los Angeles, CA -> San Diego, CA -> Las Vegas, NV -> San Francisco, CA -> Los Angeles, CA -> Las Vegas, NV -> Arizona -> Las Vegas, NV -> Baltimore, MD -> Las Vegas, NV -> Los Angeles, CA -> Palm Springs, CA -> Las Vegas, NV -> Los Angeles, CA -> San Diego, CA.

Holy s**t.

And his residence may be changing again?? Looks like Schaefer has filed to run for U.S. Senate in Nevada… this is especially odd, because he’s a current officeholder in CA. Can he hold office in CA if he lives/is running for office in Nevada?

https://twitter.com/politics1com/status/1755246598374740351

Also ran for Mayor of Palm Springs in 2015 on a platform of kicking out homeless camps & building a White Castle there before immediately pivoting to an attempt to be the D to take Cresent Hardy on in NV-04 2016. What a guy:

During the 1960 presidential election, he supported U.S. Senator John F. Kennedy and later served as a staff assistant for state Senator Thomas Kuche. He also worked as an analyst for the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission.

In 1965, Schaefer was elected to the San Diego City Council and served until 1971. In 1968, he received the Republican nomination in California's 37th House district, but was defeated by incumbent Representative Lionel Van Deerlin. In 1970, he was arrested for bribery and conspiracies charges in the 1970 Yellow Cab bribery scandal, but was later acquitted after an eleven-hour deliberation by a jury on January 21, 1971. Later that year, he ran for mayor in the open primary, but received less than one percent of the vote. In 1974, he ran for the Republican nomination for Secretary of State in Nevada, but was defeated by Stanley W. Paher.

Schaefer has owned properties in multiple states. In the 1980s, he was successfully sued by his tenants in Los Angeles for the low quality of his housing; in 1986, jurors awarded them a judgment of $1.83 million, which he preemptively sought to flee by moving to Maryland the year prior, where he purchased the Schaefer Hotel in downtown Baltimore for $450,000 and befriended William Donald Schaefer, of no relation, then serving as the mayor of Baltimore and later as Governor of Maryland. Mike Schaefer believed that sharing a last name with William would help him politically: in 1986, he ran for the Republican nomination for Maryland's Senate election, but was defeated by Linda Chavez; following William Schaefer's death in 2011, Mike filed a $28,000 claim to William's estate.

From the 1990s to the 2010s, he ran for local offices in Los Angeles and San Francisco, Secretary of State of California, state legislative seats in Arizona, Nevada, and Maryland, and mayor in Baltimore and Palm Springs. In 1993, he was convicted of misdemeanor spousal abuse and was later disbarred by the Nevada Supreme Court in 2001. In 2013, comedian Brad Garrett filed a restraining order against Schaefer, stating in his application: "As a celebrity, I am very concerned about stalkers who seek notoriety by associating themselves with me." Under the order, Schaefer is also banned from the MGM Grand Las Vegas. In 2014, he was removed from the Nevada state controller primary in a decision ultimately upheld by the Nevada Supreme Court, as he had failed to meet the residency requirements. In 2015, he was ordered to pay $328 to his live-in landlord.

In 2018, he initially sought to run for California's 54th State Assembly district, but later dropped out as he would rather remain in San Diego and ran in the Board of Equalization's 4th district. He ran as a member of the Democratic Party and placed second in the top-two primary behind state senator Joel Anderson. On November 6, 2018, Schaefer unexpectedly narrowly defeated Anderson, who had spent over $300,000 to Schaefer's $25,000. This was attributed to the Democratic wave and Anderson being reprimanded for his comments to a female lobbyist.

In 2023, Schaefer was briefly a Democratic candidate for California's 47th congressional district in the following year's election, after initially misfiling for office in the 45th district, but in February 2024, he filed to switch to the race for U.S. Senate in Nevada.

[Sir Mohamed]

Is it too late for Porter to just switch to running for her House seat again? This looks like a serious miscalculation for her.

Filing deadlines are way behind us.

Yup, that ship had sailed. I wouldn't say that her political career is over after this unless she pulls it off. She could try a comeback and run for some statewide offices in 2026 below governor (which already has enough actual or potential high-profile candidates). Running for gov later on might be easier from a statewide office anyway.

The BoE member for Orange County is 85 and may or may not be running for Porter’s seat (I keep finding conflicting info) so she can definitely run for that in 2026

I'm sorry, an 85 year old is running for Congress? Jesus Christ.

So Joe Biden is a young man

Joe Arpaio also ran for in 2018 at the age of 86. For a 6 year term in the senate.