COVID-19 Megathread 5: The Trumps catch COVID-19

[jimrtex]

https://twitter.com/funder/status/1255960473989677061?s=20

If they are live, they can't run commercials.

[Meclazine for Israel]

I'm sorry to hear that and hope you're feeling better.  Of course nobody is happy about it.  But just out of curiosity, why do you blame the lockdown for it?

I can't tolerate the stress.

Lockdown can result is no exercise, particularly walking. If you stay still, your blood will clot in the veins in your calves and legs.

Pulmonary embolism is predominantly associated with DVT in the legs from people not moving.

Stress can constrict arteries.

[GP270watch]

https://twitter.com/funder/status/1255960473989677061?s=20

Fox being in that group is interesting.

They're doing him a favor at this point. He looks so dumb, incoherent, and petulant that I can't imagine it does anything for his approvals or elections prospects. But it's also pretty sad that in a global pandemic the President of The United States doesn't command any kind of authoritative guidance and instead is a lying idiotic bully.  

[Donald Trump’s Toupée]

The virus may have been inevitable by the time it was out. The economic turmoil was not.

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

Latest cumulative European case & death graphs (5-day weighted average).  Continued steady progress in Italy and Spain, but no sign that America has significantly declined from its peak death numbers.

[Meclazine for Israel]

OK,

https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/

UK



UK 30 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 84,614 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 77,000

UK starting to come down with the recoveries added less than those actually predicted by about 6,000.


France



France 30 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 59,955 – April 11
Recoveries added to curve – 69,000

France has a couple of bumps.


Germany



Germany 30 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 66,264 – April 6
Recoveries added to curve – 14,400

Germany remarkably follows the curve accurately and this predicts well thanks to good data collection and reporting.


Spain



Spain 30 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 78,610 – April 9
Recoveries added to curve – 37,500

Spain continues to decrease, albeit at a slower rate. A number of recoveries are starting to be added to the data on World-o-meters.


Italy



Italy 30 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 68,528 – March 30
Recoveries added to curve – 90,000

Italy has finally started added recoveries to their data.


USA



USA 30 April - Active Cases
Predicted peak of Active Cases: 494,087 – April 24
Recoveries added to curve – 403,000

USA on it's way down with a spike every Thursday/Friday on the weekly stats.


Growth Curve

When all the growth curves in Active Cases are plotted together, we get:



All growth curves have been smoothed with 3 point averaging.

[Tintrlvr]

Latest cumulative European case & death graphs (5-day weighted average).  Continued steady progress in Italy and Spain, but no sign that America has significantly declined from its peak death numbers.

The US figures are awkward because New York used to dominate daily deaths but is now well past peak and significantly declined, while many other states with lower overall deaths are still at or before peak in daily deaths.

[QAnonKelly]

https://twitter.com/dataeditor/status/1255896404930834435?s=20

That’s effing insane. Trump told the governors to come up with their own way of getting tests and Hogan did just that and now he has to worry about them being taken. Maybe if Trump had thought outside the box like Hogan did to get the tests we wouldn’t be in this situation in the first place.

[Dr. Arch]

The updated numbers for COVID-19 in the U.S. are in for 4/30 per: https://www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/us/

I'm keeping track of these updates daily and updating at the end of the day, whenever all states finish reporting for that day.

Δ Change: Day-by-day Growth or Decline or COVID-19 Spread/Deaths.

• IE: Are we flattening the curve enough?

Σ Increase: A day's contribution to overall percentage growth of COVID-19 cases/deaths.

• IE: What's the overall change in the total?

<Last Numbers for 3/26-3/28 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 3/29-4/4 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/5-4/11 in this Post>
<Last Numbers for 4/12-4/18 in this Post>

4/19: <Sunday>

• Cases: 764,303 (+25,473 | Δ Change: ↓12.45% | Σ Increase: ↑3.45%)
• Deaths: 40,548 (+1,534 | Δ Change: ↓17.53% | Σ Increase: ↑3.93%)

4/20:

• Cases: 792,759 (+28,456 | Δ Change: ↑11.71% | Σ Increase: ↑3.28%)
• Deaths: 42,514 (+1,966 | Δ Change: ↑28.16% | Σ Increase: ↑4.85%)

4/21:

• Cases: 818,744 (+25,985 | Δ Change: ↓8.68% | Σ Increase: ↑3.72%)
• Deaths: 45,318 (+2,804 | Δ Change: ↑42.62% | Σ Increase: ↑6.60%)

4/22:

• Cases: 848,555 (+29,811 | Δ Change: ↑14.72% | Σ Increase: ↑3.64%)
• Deaths: 47,654 (+2,336 | Δ Change: ↓16.69% | Σ Increase: ↑5.15%)

4/23:

• Cases: 880,204 (+31,649 | Δ Change: ↑6.17% | Σ Increase: ↑3.73%)
• Deaths: 49,845 (+2,191 | Δ Change: ↓6.21% | Σ Increase: ↑4.60%)

4/24:

• Cases: 925,038 (+44,834 | Δ Change: ↑41.70% | Σ Increase: ↑5.09%)
• Deaths: 52,185 (+2,340 | Δ Change: ↑6.80% | Σ Increase: ↑4.69%)

4/25:

• Cases: 960,651 (+35,613 | Δ Change: ↓20.57% | Σ Increase: ↑3.85%)
• Deaths: 54,256 (+2,071 | Δ Change: ↓11.50% | Σ Increase: ↑3.97%)

4/26: <Sunday>

• Cases: 987,160 (+26,509 | Δ Change: ↓25.56% | Σ Increase: ↑2.76%)
• Deaths: 55,413 (+1,157 | Δ Change: ↓44.13% | Σ Increase: ↑2.13%)

4/27:

• Cases: 1,010,299 (+23,139 | Δ Change: ↓12.71% | Σ Increase: ↑2.34%)
• Deaths: 56,797 (+1,384 | Δ Change: ↑19.62% | Σ Increase: ↑2.50%)

4/28:

• Cases: 1,035,454 (+25,155 | Δ Change: ↑8.71% | Σ Increase: ↑2.49%)
• Deaths: 59,252 (+2,455 | Δ Change: ↑77.38% | Σ Increase: ↑4.32%)

4/29 (Yesterday):

• Cases: 1,064,572 (+29,118 | Δ Change: ↑15.75% | Σ Increase: ↑2.81%)
• Deaths: 61,669 (+2,417 | Δ Change: ↓1.55% | Σ Increase: ↑4.08%)

4/30 (Today):

• Cases: 1,095,023 (+30,451 | Δ Change: ↑4.58% | Σ Increase: ↑2.86%)
• Deaths: 63,856 (+2,187 | Δ Change: ↓9.52% | Σ Increase: ↑3.55%)

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/vote4robgill/status/1255922426120146947

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The Oxford vaccine trials have started, they started injecting volunteers last week, they said in 6 weeks we can expect results of efficacy and side effects, if it works they plan to try to get emergency authorization

[BudgieForce]

The Oxford vaccine trials have started, they started injecting volunteers last week, they said in 6 weeks we can expect results of efficacy and side effects, if it works they plan to try to get emergency authorization

Which would mean it'd be ready by the end of the year. Hopefully we can avert or heavily reduce the chances of a second outbreak.

Edit: I dont actually know that. Just guessing from other things i've read.

[#TheShadowyAbyss]

The Oxford vaccine trials have started, they started injecting volunteers last week, they said in 6 weeks we can expect results of efficacy and side effects, if it works they plan to try to get emergency authorization

Which would mean it'd be ready by the end of the year. Hopefully we can avert or heavily reduce the chances of a second outbreak.

They said if the results in mid-June are very good we could get it by September, some manufacturing companies are already starting to manufacture the vaccine candidate in the event it proves successful. We'll also get initial data sometime in May

[KaiserDave]

https://twitter.com/vote4robgill/status/1255922426120146947

That's what a coup looks like

[Fmr. Gov. NickG]

https://twitter.com/vote4robgill/status/1255922426120146947

How on earth on guns allowed inside a state capitol?

[Absentee Voting Ghost of Ruin]

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1255886349628047360

[Tender Branson]

https://twitter.com/joshtpm/status/1255886349628047360

The real number of COVID deaths in the US is probably much higher already, 130.000 to 150.000 - if you factor in people dying at home.

Those people are not showing up in the daily hospital and nursing home statistics.

[Landslide Lyndon]

How on earth on guns allowed inside a state capitol?

Because, FREEDOM!

[Meclazine for Israel]

The real number of COVID deaths in the US is probably much higher already, 130.000 to 150.000 - if you factor in people dying at home.

Those people are not showing up in the daily hospital and nursing home statistics.

Not likely.

Doctors are complaining  in hospitals of deaths due to other causes being reported as Corona-virus, that is every mortality regardless when co-morbidity is the major cause.

There are not 90,000 corpses sitting in homes around the USA......I hope.

Based on my numerical observations, Germany and the US datasets are reasonably clean.

[Smeulders]

The real number of COVID deaths in the US is probably much higher already, 130.000 to 150.000 - if you factor in people dying at home.

Those people are not showing up in the daily hospital and nursing home statistics.

Not likely.

Doctors are complaining  in hospitals of deaths due to other causes being reported as Corona-virus, that is every mortality regardless when co-morbidity is the major cause.

There are not 90,000 corpses sitting in homes around the USA......I hope.

Based on my numerical observations, Germany and the US datasets are reasonably clean.

You seem to be going too much in the other direction. Especially your comment implying Covid deaths are being overestimated due to misattribution. Excess death analysis suggests that, like almost every other country in the world, the US is undercounting. See for example https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/2020/04/28/us/coronavirus-death-toll-total.html, which found a gap of 9000 between Covid-19 deaths and excess deaths in just 7 (admittedly hard-hit) states between March 8 and April 11. Lots of caveats everywhere of course. Not all excess deaths are necessarily Covid deaths (especially in NY, where the health care system was stressed to breaking point leading to additional non-Covid deaths). Additionally, some of those states have added backlog to their Covid-deaths tally, removing some of that undercount. On the other hand, the states in this set acknowledge the scale of the pandemic. The rate of undercount in "head in the sand" states is not likely to be smaller. Too early to estimate a total number, but very unlikely that there is an underestimation by half, like Tender Branson suggests, nor is it likely that the current US count is accurate.

[Smeulders]

On a different note, here is some xkcd.

[jamestroll]

Now they are saying we may be dealing with this for several more years. Are we still planning to shut the economy down into the mid 2020s now?

And after that I bet we will shut the economy down every winter due to seasonal cold and flu until 2030 when we are all required to wear hazmat suits everywhere.

[DINGO Joe]

https://twitter.com/vote4robgill/status/1255922426120146947

That's what a coup looks like

Not really, just a handful of selfish rotten people.  To deal with something like COVID-19 you need responsible adults not the lowest common denominator, to see these unmasked savages yelling in the face of responsible society shows what little respect they have for other human beings.

[Smeulders]

Now they are saying we may be dealing with this for several more years. Are we still planning to shut the economy down into the mid 2020s now?

And after that I bet we will shut the economy down every winter due to seasonal cold and flu until 2030 when we are all required to wear hazmat suits everywhere.

We're not. We'll figure out a way to minimize risks and get back to our social and economic lives. Probably not in the exact same way as before, but a lot better than the current situation. Right now we need some time to study the virus and prepare for post lockdown management of the pandemic. Please don't think that "we need lockdowns now" and "the virus is not going away" means "we need lockdowns in perpetuity".

[Meclazine for Israel]

Now they are saying we may be dealing with this for several more years. Are we still planning to shut the economy down into the mid 2020s now?

And after that I bet we will shut the economy down every winter due to seasonal cold and flu until 2030 when we are all required to wear hazmat suits everywhere.

We are men of science Jimmie, we fear no worldly terror. Pitch that attitude skyward lad, sharpish!

New Zealand and South Australia are talking about elimination.

https://7news.com.au/travel/coronavirus-australia-sa-wa-and-nt-flagged-as-potential-international-travel-hubs-c-1008979

Once summer hits in the US, your numbers will drop dramatically.

And in great news for teachers, UK scientists are yet to find any cases involving child to adult transmission:

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2020/04/29/no-case-child-passing-coronavirus-adult-exists-evidence-review/

So something about children makes them less capable of hosting the virus. These are both very positive outcomes.