PA Gubernatorial Race 2006

[J. J.]

danwxman, I agree.  How is some washed up Steelers WR giving Rendell a challenge?  I mean is that the best the GOP can do? 

We may have to pound the pavement on Santorum as well.  How is this jackass getting these good poll numbers?

Anybody named after a team that isn't playing this year shouldn't be taken seriously.

Further and GOP candidate that has never run a statewide race, and was never really a statewide figure, getting 44% of the vote against an incumbent governor, means the governor is very BIG trouble!

In the case of Senator, you have a two candidates that have run statewide, one of whom, the one holding a lesser office, has the same name as a popular former governor, indicates a close race.

[J. J.]

Rendell just made a mistake.  He's brought up some gun control issues.  Opps!

[J. J.]

No, he's kind of liberal. He has given a lot of money to John Kerry's campaigns for the senate, but campaigned for Bush in Pennsylvania, so it's hard to tell.

His donations to Kerry leave me scratching my head but he's not kind of liberal. His views are conservative.

Makes me wonder if it's because of Theresa since both Swann and T.H.K. have Pittsburgh connections.  It is puzzling though.

He might have some feeling of loyalty to her, as Sen. Hienz was also a Pittsburgher.

[J. J.]

Make sure you look at this analysis of why Rendell will be defeated in 2006. Now I know it's written by a Young Republican leader but there are some poll numbers included and other issues that clearly hurt Rendell.
 
http://politicspa.com/FEATURES/gsterns.htm

In the interest of being fair and balanced, which you are clearly not, here is the other article: http://www.politicspa.com/FEATURES/gettel.htm

I've read both, but I noted in the the second:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

This violates J. J. Second Rule:  "When a politician or activist talks about a large group of voters that, a. aren't being polled, or b. really going to turn out and swing the election, there is no such group."   

Some of what he cites is valid, but this point is not one of them.  I'm far from predicting a Rendell disaster, but it is far too early to get tickets to the Rendell inaugral ball.

I'll jump back in and add that Casey could actually supress liberal turnout, especially with pro-choice groups.  They may see no difference between the two candidates and stay home.  That hurts both Casey and Rendell.

[J. J.]

Nice to see Rendell getting dragged around over Act 72. 

I wouldn't be too thrilled; Casey proposed a comprehesive tax reform program, to approved with a constitutional amendment.  In the Spring of 1989, it was defeated two to one.  In the Fall of 1990, Casey was relected by a margin of two to one.

[J. J.]

First, I was alluding to Rendell failure with Act 72; that was Jake's post.  It's too far out to be a real factor in 2006.

Second, Castor as Lt. Gov. could be a very big held to a GOP nominee.  It would drain votes from Rendell.

Another problem is Baker Knoll.  She's a disaster (even according to the Democrats), but she repesents the conservative wing of PA Democratic party.  She's also from Pittsburgh.  Dumping her repudiates that wing; keeping her reminds everyone that she keeps referring to the Gov. as "Edward G. Robinson."  That is one of the ticking time bombs in the Rendell campaign.

[J. J.]

First, I was alluding to Rendell failure with Act 72; that was Jake's post.  It's too far out to be a real factor in 2006.

Second, Castor as Lt. Gov. could be a very big held to a GOP nominee.  It would drain votes from Rendell.

Another problem is Baker Knoll.  She's a disaster (even according to the Democrats), but she repesents the conservative wing of PA Democratic party.  She's also from Pittsburgh.  Dumping her repudiates that wing; keeping her reminds everyone that she keeps referring to the Gov. as "Edward G. Robinson."  That is one of the ticking time bombs in the Rendell campaign.

I would consider dumping Baker Knoll.  I've heard things from people who've worked for her.  She is a VERY conservative Democrat and has the worst personality. 

Nini posted a thread with a very good link.  https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=23601.0

The problem is, Knoll represents a sizable contstituency within the Democratic party and she's independently nominated.  Rendell basically has to go out and say, "Vote for someone else."  He does that, and he alienates not just more of SWPA, but a lot of conservative Democrats.  Further, some of the candidates to replace her are very leftist, like Kukovitch.

He keeps her on the ticket, her gaffs and succession questions come into play.

Basically, some liberals may not turn out because Casey is on the ticket and conservatives may not turn out because Rendell pushed Knoll off the ticket.

This is one where I don't blame Rendell; I doubt if he voted for her in the 2002 primary.

[J. J.]

The is elephant in the parlor that no one talking about, race.  If Swan can get a proportion of the African American vote in Phila, better than Bush's, it suddenly becomes a dead even race.  He gets 25% of the Black vote, holds Fisher's base, Swan wins.

[J. J.]

In order to win Swann would pretty much need 25% of the African American Philly vote.  Simply being African American isn't going to get him that.  Swann being a Republican greatly hurts him at acheving that as does Rendell's immense popularity in the city, his past connections to the city, etc.

His chances of doing it are a lot better than if he were Irish.  He'll pull some, just on race.  The "base" Black GOP vote in PA is 9-11% percent.  A Black candidate might be able to double that.  That is a big chunk of Rendell's margin of victory.

Then there is the factor that Black candidates tend to do a bit better with liberals.

[J. J.]

In order to win Swann would pretty much need 25% of the African American Philly vote.  Simply being African American isn't going to get him that.  Swann being a Republican greatly hurts him at acheving that as does Rendell's immense popularity in the city, his past connections to the city, etc.

His chances of doing it are a lot better than if he were Irish.  He'll pull some, just on race.  The "base" Black GOP vote in PA is 9-11% percent.  A Black candidate might be able to double that.  That is a big chunk of Rendell's margin of victory.

Then there is the factor that Black candidates tend to do a bit better with liberals.

Granted, but Rendell's  sheer approval #'s in Philly, and his past connections to Philly makes it quite a bit tougher for Swann than it otherwise would be.

We are not talking about that much of a gain and a portion of that black population does not live in SEPA.  Also, Rendell really hasn't done anything for Phila as Governor.  It make a likely Rendell victory a toss-up.

[J. J.]

How the hell does Knoll have 67% name recognition?  I'm glad to see Hoeffel doing well and I hope he jumps in the race.

She was State Treasurer for eight years, ran for Governor at least once, and ran for Lieutenant Governor.  All of those are elective.  It's easy.

[J. J.]

The is elephant in the parlor that no one talking about, race.  If Swan can get a proportion of the African American vote in Phila, better than Bush's, it suddenly becomes a dead even race.  He gets 25% of the Black vote, holds Fisher's base, Swan wins.

In order to win Swann would pretty much need 25% of the African American Philly vote.  Simply being African American isn't going to get him that.  Swann being a Republican greatly hurts him at acheving that as does Rendell's immense popularity in the city, his past connections to the city, etc.

He probably has 8%-10%, just be being a Republican and a sports hero.  I'm basically assuming he loses the African American vote 3 to 1.  He doesn't have to get that much, just a small percentage.

[J. J.]

According to GrassrootsPA.com, former candidate Bill Scranton was trying to gain the open PA GOP chairmanship but was blocked by Swann. In other chairman news, Cambria county GOP chairman Robert Gleason has been selected as the new state leader and Centre county's Joyce Haas is the new Vice Chair.

I've known them both.

[J. J.]

According to GrassrootsPA.com, former candidate Bill Scranton was trying to gain the open PA GOP chairmanship but was blocked by Swann. In other chairman news, Cambria county GOP chairman Robert Gleason has been selected as the new state leader and Centre county's Joyce Haas is the new Vice Chair.

I've known them both.

You are welcome to comment further. 

Haas, if I'm thinking of the same person, was a candidate for one of the row offices in 1983 in Centre County (which she lost).  I was impressed with her; she seemed like a hard worker.

Robert "Robbie" Gleason is the son of the longest serving County Chaiman in the 20th Century, Robert A. "Chief" Gleason, Sr in the 20th Century.  He ran for State Senate in 1980, loosing to Mark Singel.  Interestingly, he lost the heavily Democratic part of his district, Westmoreland County, by about 600 votes.  He lost the less heavily Democratic area of his home county, Cambria by roughly 10,000 votes (his father was chair). 

He was the Secretary of the Commonwealth in Thornburgh's second term, and lost a previous attempt to be state chair.

Between 1980 and  2006, the Cambria County GOP, with one exception, lost a series of elections.  The high point was elected two commissioners in 1991.

In terms of fund raising, they did none.  There candidate screening consisted of two questions:  Were you ever convicted of a crime?  Are you gay?  (I answered no to both and passed the test).

He probably would not have been my first choice.

[J. J.]

Quinnipiac shows Rendell up 24 points.

I would say its a safe bet to say this one is locked up.

I wouldn't trust Quinnipiac that much and I would have to wait until the air campaign starts.

In both 1994 and 2002, at this point, the loser was leading.

[J. J.]

Quinnipiac shows Rendell up 24 points.

I would say its a safe bet to say this one is locked up.

I wouldn't trust Quinnipiac that much and I would have to wait until the air campaign starts.

In both 1994 and 2002, at this point, the loser was leading.

I'm not basing it off of Quinnipiac as much as the rest of the polls.  Also keep in mind both the 94 & 02 elections didn't involve incumbents, and open elections tradiotnally are more likely to swing back & forth in the run up to Election Day than a race with a sitting Incumbent.

I know the incumbent factor, but these things shift, greatly, at this point.  Even 1982, Ertel was trailing badly, and closed within the last month (and almost won it).

[J. J.]

I'm new here...can someone explain why an ex-jock and ex-game show host is the GOP favorite for Gov? Isn't there a good GOP candidate with experience who can take on Rendell and win? Lynn Swann for Governor? That's worse that Arnold in CA.

Two words: Arnold won.

[J. J.]

Pennsylvania's election laws really suck. The two dominant political parties designed them to keep the game all to themselves. Very nice.

But there are many factions within the parties; that helps make up for things.