Special Election megathread (4/30: NY-26)

[kwabbit]

If Republicans are smart they would try to prop up Turner as much as possible in this race. The more visible Berniecrats sowing division in the party and openly discussing unpopular policy ideas the better for them.

Also, an AA district in Cleveland is definitely mandated by the VRA. The Republicans can't get rid of this district, but they can get rid of the Toledo/Lakeshore district and the Youngstown/Akron district.

[kwabbit]

NYT is saying counties are completed when they aren’t. They were also doing that in the NYC congressional primaries. I think they are underestimating turnout perhaps.

[kwabbit]

Same old story here as in MN-01 and NE-01.

GOP did a bit better on the margins in their areas but the turnout in blue areas was just simply much better.

37.6k votes out of 182k in Ulster- 20.6% of the population voted
25.1k votes out of 296k in Dutchess- 8.4% of the population voted

If that trend holds up in November it sure as hell won't be red wave, Democrats will keep the Senate and might hold the House.

This is a district where the Democrats are wealthy and high-propensity, but that is honestly crazy differential turnout even accounting for that.

[kwabbit]

Same old story here as in MN-01 and NE-01.

GOP did a bit better on the margins in their areas but the turnout in blue areas was just simply much better.

37.6k votes out of 182k in Ulster- 20.6% of the population voted
25.1k votes out of 296k in Dutchess- 8.4% of the population voted

If that trend holds up in November it sure as hell won't be red wave, Democrats will keep the Senate and might hold the House.

This is a district where the Democrats are wealthy and high-propensity, but that is honestly crazy differential turnout even accounting for that.

I think you're comparing to all of Dutchess County, but a quite populous corner in the SW of the county is in the old NY-18 instead of the old NY-19.

Yep you're right NVM lol