The Presidency of America's Maverick

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Alabama Governor Don Siegelman announces Presidential Bid:



Sieglman: Thank You Thank You. Today we stand at a critical moment in nation's and it is critical we meet up to a moment like this and that is why I have decided to seek the Democratic Nomination for President of the United States. Not only do we face abroad with the War on Terror but we face a crises at home with a struggling economy where more and more working-class Americans find it harder to make ends meet and that is something that is unacceptable. Over the past two decades, we have seen factories all across our nation shut down , workers laid off while they jobs get shipped overseas just so the largest corporations in our nation can make a profit. If we want to keep our nation the strongest nation on earth  we must make our economic system fairer for all Americans and to do that it is time we reinvest in our communities by increasing funding for education, incentivize companies to build products here rather than overseas, pass universal healthcare and rebuild the American family. Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America


Vermont Governor Howard Dean announces Presidential Bid



https://www.c-span.org/video/?177134-1/governor-howard-dean-d-vt-presidential-campaign-announcement

Dean: Thank you all for coming today and it is an honor to have all of you here today as we today begin a long journey to make our nation remain prosperous for the foreseeable future and that is why I have decided to run for President. We face many crises from the  threat of terrorism, to the increasing costs of healthcare and to meet those challenges we must try new solutions. We must rely on the strength of our diplomacy more if we really want to deal with this terrorist threat rather than use force every single time. At home we must pass a bill that makes healthcare affordable for all Americans, we must rebuild our middle class and the way to do that is to once again embrace our liberal legacy FDR and his new deal and that is exactly what I plan to do. Thank You may god bless you and may god Bless America

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Just by curiosity, when approximately do you think McCain should announce re-election bid?

probably some time, early summer which is usually when Presidents I believe  announce their reelection bids

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Longtime Deleware Senator Joe Biden announces Presidential Bid:



Biden: Thank You, Thank You it is sure great to be back in the great city of  Scranton, Pennslyvania and Im honored for all of you to come out too. As we all know , we as a nation face many problems that must be addressed to ensure our success in the decades to come and that is why I have decided to run for President. For too long the problems facing cities like Scranton all across the nation have been ignored to the benefit of the people on wall street and on the boards of large corporations and that is wrong. Workers in factories, steel mills, and all across the nation built our nation not large corporations, and places like this are the soul of this nation and if we want to succeed we must keep our soul strong.  The key to success both in our economic future and in this global war on terror depends on our success to make sure Americans no matter where they come from can succeed and that is why I have decided to run for President . Thank You, May God Bless You and May God America


Former House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt announces Presidential Bid:


Gephardt: Thank You Thank You, as all of you may know we face a critical time in our nation with us facing both an war abroad and slow economic times here at home. It is my belief for us to solve the many problems facing our nation today we need to implement economic policies that benefit not just the well off but many working-class Americans across the nation, strengthen our ties with nations all across the world so we can defeat terrorism which Is why I have decided to run for President. It is my belief that too meet the challenges facing us today we need a leader with the experience needed to pass the policies needed to be required to truly make our future better for our kids than it ever has been before. Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America

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Senator Mary Landrieu announces Presidential Bid:



Landrieu: Thank You Thank You. Today we face an important moment in our nation, from fighting a global war against terrorism aborad to economic problems at home and a potential energy crises as well which is why I have decided to run for President. We need a leader who can bring both parties together not to solve the problems of the past but today and that’s what I pledge to do as president of the United States . We need to pass healthcare reform that can make sure every American can afford good quality private health insurance and I believe I have the ability to bring both parties together and do that. Thank You, may God Bless you and May God Bless America



Congressman Dennis Kucinich announces Presidential run:



Kucinich: Thank You Thank You. For far too long we have heard politicians from both parties talk about the same things in a different way and it is time that changes and that is why I am running for President. It is time we as Democrats stand for something again, stop being afraid of the word liberal and reclaim the legacy of FDR and bring forth a new new deal to solve the problems facing our nation today as well as end these offensive wars in the middle east. It is time we stop policing the world and instead spend that money on passing a bill that expands medicare to every American in the nation, and help Americans out in these tough economic times. It is also time we stand up for the rights of Americans again and restore the right to privacy by repealing the patriot act and restore our constitution. Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America


Al Sharpton announces Presidential Bid on Meet the Press:



Russert: So I have heard you have an important announcement you would like to make

Sharpton: Yes and that is I will be seeking the Democratic nomination for President of the United States

Russert: So why are you running

Sharpton: Well my belief is one we have to make our party proud to be democrats again instead of running away from our core principles as remember when our party was proud to be democrats and proposed bold ideas we passed the New Deal, The Great Society , The Civil Rights Act and the Voting Rights act all great pieces of legislation that greatly improved the lives of marginalized people in this nation

Russet: So what are some core ideas you think the Democrats should run on now

Sharpton: One is that we need to be the party of urban renewal as the fact is for two long we have allowed the urban centers that helped make our nation great decline greatly to create gated communities in sububs and it is time that stopped. The decline of our cities has hurt minorities and poor people all across the nation and it is time our party embraces policies such as cheaper housing , more infrastructure to rebuild cities , and reforming our justice system

Russert: Ok last question what will be your policy on the war

Sharpton: My beleif is we need to withdraw from Iraq as one Suddam Hussain has nothing to do with 9/11 and my belief is we should only go to war in self-defense and this was not one of them. Second we accomplished our goal in Iraq of removing Saddam and now it is time for us to ask the UN to come in and rebuild Iraq because it should not be our job to police the world .

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Florida Senator and Former Vice Presidential Nominee Bob Graham announces Presidential Bid:



Source: https://www.c-span.org/video/?114075-1/florida-senate-campaign-debate

Graham: Thank You , Thank You. Today we stand at an important moment in our nation's future and it is critical we meet this moment like we have in many similar moments throughout our history. We need to improve our relations with nations across the world to win this global war on terror , and at home we need to reform our education, healthcare, save our environment in an efficient and fiscally responsible way at thats why I have decided to run for President. As governor of Florida we were able to improve our education , our healthcare systems, protect our environment all while creating one of the best business environments out of any state in the nation and I believe we can do it again . As senator we worked with members of both parties to solve problems and that is what I also intend to do as President. Thank You , May God Bless You and May God Bless America .


Senator Zell Miller announces Presidential Bid:



Miller: Thank You Thank You. Over the past few decades we have seen the Democratic party move away from its southern working class roots and move towards liberal elitism letting the Republicans the party of big business become the party of the south. It is time we have someone truly represent the working class values embodied by Southerners and that is why I have decided to run for President. The Democratic party also used to be a party that believed in tax cuts to stimulate both business growth and consumer spending and used to understand that putting more hands in people helps our economy grow and it is time we reclaim that legacy of being the party of tax cuts and not just the party of government bureaucracies. We used to be the party that used to believe in strong American presence in world affairds and we will reclaim that legacy as well. Thank You , May God Bless You and May God Bless America


Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold Announces Run:



Feingold: Thank You Thank You. As you know over the past two decades and a half we have seen our party slowly lose power and in a time like this we cannot afford for that to continue and that is why I have decided to run for President. We need a Democratic Party that stands strong for the working men and women of this country and stand once again the elite who layoff workers and outsource their jobs overseas just to make more profits. We need to be once again the party of Unions as they are the ones who built are middle class and that is exactly what I will do as President and we must renew the effort to fulfil President Truman's dream of expanding healthcare to every American. Lastly we also must stand strong for the individual liberties our constitution guarantees and to do that we must repeal the patriot act, reform are criminal justice system and i we do all of that we can also  restore our great party to its former glory as well. Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America

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President McCain officially files for reelection and campaign releases statement

Woodruff: President McCain officially filed papers with the FEC which will allow him to officially launch his reelection campaign and then his campaign released his statement.

McCain: When I sought this office 4 years I promised to you that I would take on corrupt special interests and put the interests of ordinary voters first and since the moment I took office I have done my utmost to keep that promise and am proud of the efforts we have taken so far to reduce the power of corruption. Over the past few years, we have also come to learn the consequences of what terrorism can do and the only way we can stop attacks like what happened on September 11th 2001 from ever happening again is by destroying these terrorist groups and stopping governments around the world from abetting them as well. Over the past year and a half we have made huge progress towards reching that goal but we still have work to do and that is why I have decided to run for reelection so we can continue our progress we have made on the global war on terror , and at home against the fight against terrorism. Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America




Early primary polls show Graham and Gephart as the frontrunners

President McCain approvals:

Approve: 66%
Disapprove: 32%

2004 Democratic Primary Poll(National):
Florida Senator Bob Graham 26%
Representative Dick Gephart 21%
Deleware Senator Joe Biden 15%
Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold 12%
Lousiana Senator Mary Landrieu 10%
Former Vermont Governor Howard Dean 7%
Alabama Governor Don Siegelman 5%
Georgia Senator Zell Miller 2%
Reverend Al Sharpton 1%
Congressman Dennis Kucinich 1%

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House Passes Prescription Drug Reform Bill :

Shaw: After much debate, the House has passed a prescription drug reform bill will add a prescription drug plan into medicare or seniors, and make other reforms to regulate price gouging by pharmaceutical companies. Now the bill still needs to get approved in the Senate where it could face more opposition and then both the house and senate need to agree on one reconciled bill which could cause problems to so this is really just the first step in passing the bill but of course an important step.

Schnider: Yes and the senate usually would see many things that could be removed from the bill and other things added in as things are usually harder to just pass in its original form in the senate due to the filibuster.

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President McCain proposes a cap and trade system to tackle global warming:



McCain: After many years of debate about the cause of global warming, it is now more than clear that humans beings have contributed significantly to it and due to that it is also our responsibility to tackle that problem. This is why 2 years ago I created a commission to research potential solutions to this issue in the most economic friendly way possible and over the past few weeks they have met with me along with the head of the EPA, Secretary of Interior, Commerce, and Energy to come up with a comprehensive plan and this is the plan we have decided.

- First, we will be capping CO2 emissions to be no more at the end of this decade as they were in the beginning of this decade. Now since we know that not every area in the nation wont be able to implement some of these caps, we will be granting partial exemptions to those areas.

- Second we will be introducing a cap and trade system to incentivize companies to lower emissions and be able to do so in a market-friendly way as well

- Third we will propose increasing funding for research and development of nuclear, wind and solar energy sources across the nation.


Doing this not only will help us tackle global warming but I believe help our economy grow as well which is why I believe Congress should pass this proposal.


Reporter(Shouting): What do you say to people who call this unrepublican and unconservative

McCain: Well that they should study history cause it was a Republican President, Teddy Roosevelt who remember created our national parks system and did a lot for our environment and then Richard Nixon who created the EPA and signed legislation such as the clean water act. As for unconservative remember it was  Ronald Reagan and Margarat Thathcer who took action to deal with the problem of the shrinking ozone layer. So the people who say that are wrong

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Breaking News: US Forces capture al-Zarqawi



Shaw: We have some breaking news to report and that is US Forces have just captured al-Zarqawi the person who was leading the Iraqi insurgency and one of the most notorious terrorists in the world. The capture of Zarqawi marks a huge win for the United States against Al-Qaeda and other insurgent groups who have been trying to get a foothold in Iraq but so far US forces have managed to stop them from doing so and the capture of Zarqawi could be a fatal blow to the insurgency. Now lets go over to the white house where Attorney General Lindsey Graham will make a statement

Graham: As you know a short while ago our forces captured one of the most notorious terrorists in the world, Abu Musab al-Zarqawi and currently at the direction of Secretary Ridge and I the Pentagon is working with the Justice Department to ensure that he is brought to justice for the crimes he has committed. When he is brought to the US , the justice department will be charging al-Zarqaui under the Mandatory Sentencing for Terrorism Act of 2001 and we will bring him to justice for the crimes he has committed.

Media Member 1: What about problems with jurisdiction

Graham: Zarqawi has committed acts of terror against the United States so we believe that we do have the jurisdiction to charge him under this act and get a conviction as well.


Media Member 2: Where will he be held while he is in Pre-Trial Custody

Graham: To deal with this issue we have constructed a holding facility specifically for someone charged under this act.

Media Member 2: What about if he is convicted

Graham: The Justice Department believes facilities like Terre Haute are adequate enough to hold an inmate convicted under the Mandatory Sentencing for Terrorism Act of 2001. That will be all for now

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Senate Passes Prescription Drug Reform Bill with some changes from the House Bill:


Shaw: The Senate today has also passed a Prescription Drug Reform Bill which will:

- Has a deductible based on income meaning wealthier seniors will have a higher deductible as well

-  Provides a subsidy for large employers to discourage them from eliminating private prescription coverage to retired workers

- Allows medicare advantage to offer part D plans

- Wealthier Seniors will also be required to pay higher copays, higher premiums

- Prevents the government from establishing a formulary



Shaw: Now with us is our congressional correspondent who will explain us the major differences between the house and senate bills

Congressional Correspondent: There are in fact huge differences, one being that the Senate bill is much more means-tested meaning than the house bill in an attempt to control the costs of the bill. Also remember the proposed medicare part D plan which passed the house would cover at least 80% of every transaction above 15 dollars you have with a pharmacy, so for example if you prescription drug bill at the pharmacy came out to be 55 dollars, the government would cover 80% of the 40 dollars in costs above 15 dollars.  On the other hand in this senate bill , instead of medicare covering parts of every transaction you have would instead set a yearly deductible but would cover a higher portion of prescription drug costs once you go over the deductible.


Shaw: There are some other changes too

Correspondent: Yes and that is the private section will have more power in the senate version of the bill than the House bill as the government is banned from having the power of creating a formulary.


Shaw: How long do you think it will take for both houses to reconcile these differences and pass a bill for the President to sign into law

Correspondent: With the differences between the two bills id say anywhere between two to three months for sure and maybe even longer than that. The differences are to larger in my opinion for the house to just adopt the senate version of the bill a couple weeks from now and pass it into law and some serious negotiations will have to be done for this bill to pass and that will take months

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Alveda King, The Niece of Martin Luther King Jr, announces she will run for the open Georgia Senate as a Republican seat after Johnny Iskason declines to run. President McCain announces he will endorse her bid to become the next senator from Georgia



Woodruff: Alveda King , The Niece of Martin Luther King Jr, has announced that she will be running for the United State Senate in Georgia to replace the retiring senator and current Presidential candidate Zell Miller. After Johnny Iskason declined the run for the senate a move which many people believe portend a run for the Gubernatorial office in 2006 . President John McCain released a statement today saying he will back her run for the senate and if both of them win their respective elections in 2004 he will look forward to working with Mrs. King to help make our nation a better place.

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I wonder whether the Republican Party would still have turned sharply to the right once McCain left the White House after two terms? I'm afraid yes, but who knows for sure?

Well one of the reason the GOP moved sharply right in OTL after 2008 was cause of the huge vacuum in the party created by 2 consecutive major defeats in 2006 and 2008 and that vacuum is what allowed the tea party to rise to the power it did in 2010. Plus the events that occured in the Bush 2nd term created lots of anger in the electorate which what also helped the tea party rise.

So the future of the GOP after whenever McCain leaves office depends a lot upon what  shape the nation is along with the shape the party is as well cause in Jan of 2009 , both the nation and the party were in terrible shape.

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Very Early 2004 Election Preview:

Shaw: With exactly a year until the 2004 election , lets go over to Jeff Greenfield to find out how the race is shaping.

Greenfield : Well first thing to remember is that the reapportionment of electoral votes since 2000 goes to the benefit of the Republicans as if the 2000 map stays the same they would have 294 electoral votes instead of 292 they had last time. So what we are going to do to that map is take every state that was decided by less than 10 points and mark them as competitive but we will also take California and Vermont from that group and mark it as Democratic as even though it was decided by less than 10 points, barring a landslide it will remain in the Democratic column and the same we could say about Virginia and given where the Vice President is from Missouri as well but for the Republicans. So once we do that we get this map

McCain 180
Democratic Candidate 150


Now here is the problem for the Democrats  have to solve because if you give the President all the competitive southern states of Florida, Georgia, Tennessee , Louisiana and Arkansas , President McCain starts out the elections with 248 electoral votes in his bag , just 22 away and if you add in the two westerns states of Nevada and New Mexico which look to be leaning in the President's way then he is only 12 away. This is the argument that Senator Graham, Landrieu Miller and Governor Siegelman are making to the party is if you dont nominate a candidate who can appeal to the South the Democrats will be forced to run the table with no room for error anywhere else which is a strategy that usually tends to fail.

Now the northern Democrats such as Senator Biden, Feingold and Governor Dean are making is that if you nominate a southern democrat , then Northern states such as Pennsylvania, New Jersey, Maine, Oregon and Washington will be won by President McCain which will give 238 EV in the bag and Nevada and New Mexico would mean hed only be 22 EV away in that scenario as well which requires almost running the table as well.

Given both these scenarios , Representative Gephardt is saying to the voters if you nominate me you wont need to surrender that many northern or southern states  meaning we would start with a better position.

Shaw: So with Representative Gephardt what states can you add to the list for the President

Greenfield: Well we believe without a southern democrat in most scenarios Georgia, Tennessee and Louisiana will go Republican and along with Nevada and New Mexico which would give President McCain 225 Electoral votes .

Shaw: So in this scenario Mr.Gephardt would be the best suited to take on President McCain

Greenfield: The other candidates would say not so fast though cause while not being from either region could result in a more larger battleground it could also make winning states harder to so for example New Jersey ,Maine,  Minnesota,and  Oregon  could be states he could have a hard time appealing in and if you add those states to the President's column he goes from 225 all the way to 261 which puts him just 9 away . While you could argue he could put Missouri in play it just puts him back at 250.

Shaw: So this election will be hard no matter what


Greenfield: Well this is exactly why incumbents are generally so hard to beat cause the bully pulpit of the presidency allows them to further reinforce support in states they already won plus play offensive ins tates that you didnt for 4 years and the party out of power has to make that up all up in a year which isnt easy to do.

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For the purposes of this TL im gonna have Louisiana's runoff take place on the same day as the other elections so i can do coverage of all 3 gubernatorial elections in one post 

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When it comes to that early 2004 election preview above, there could be modifications of the ratings for the states, including perhaps New York. As we all know the 2004 Republican National Convention was held in New York City and IOTL, two weeks after the RNC, Kerry's lead in New York was reduced to just 6 percentage points due to Bush's convention bounce nationwide.

https://poll.qu.edu/new-york-state/release-detail?ReleaseID=399

And Osama Bin Laden, the perpetrator of the 9/11 attacks, has been killed and President McCain's maverick stance has strong appeal among more conservative Democrats and independent voters.

But of course it will depend on who's the Democratic nominee.

Keep in mind this isnt a battleground map as much, but rather basically mapping out a path based on the electiblity arguments the different democratic candidates are making , and no matter who the Democratic party nominee is they will need New York to vote for them by probably double digits if they want to make any path to the WH realistic.

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And what does the Democratic polling look like now?

I will do an update on that after I cover the 2003 gubernatorial elections

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CNN: Election Night in America 2003(Part 1):



Source: https://i.ytimg.com/vi/haRo8uLQNok/hqdefault.jpg

7:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Schneider: Welcome too CNN's Coverage of the 2003 gubernatorial elections in Kentucky , Mississippi and Louisiana. The polls have just closed in Kentucky and in fact in much of Kentucky the polls closed an hour ago and as off now we are unable to make a projection in this race

Schneider: In the polls leading up to this race Republican Ernie Fletcher has lead by a couple points but for him to be the first republican governor elected in this state in over 3 decades he will need to do perform really well in the northern and central parts of the state.

Shaw: Yes so far though he seems to do be doing that as the central part of the state is coloring in republican colors so far but the eastern part of the state like expected is going solidly democratic. A key for the Dem is winning Jefferson county by probably double digits and then winning Fayette to cause if they do that that along with strong performances in the east. At this point though it doesnt seem like they are able to that which is why Mr. Fletcher seems to hold a 7 point lead at the moment.


7:40:

Woodruff: Now with nearly 3/4 of the vote in Mr.Fletcher seems to be up by around 6 to 7 points so Bill do you think its all over

Schnider: At this point I would say most probably yes given the fact it seems like Mr.Fletcher is doing really well in Northern Kentucky even getting 70% in some of the counties like Boone county and doing really well in Central kentucky as well as Western Kentucky so at this point id say its all over

Shaw: You are right as we can project in Kentucky that the Republican Ernie Fletcher will become the first governor of the state in 30 years

8:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Shaw: The polls have closed in Mississippi and at this moment we are unable to make a projection there.  So Jeff what are the keys there for both parties

Greenfield: Well for Governor Musgrove it is winning over 90% of the African American vote and getting good turnout from them as well and from exit polls seems like we are getting relatively decent turnout but thats too early to say. Then he'd need to do well ins ome of the rural counties and if he does that he can get over 50% but if not he wont . Id say some key points are how good can the Democrats do in the South Western parts of the state and some key counties here in the middle like Montgomery County. The Republican path is basically to stop any of these from happening cause if they do they will win

8:30:

Schinder: So Far Mr. Barbour hold a large lead over Governor Musgrove but to be cautious the Democratic counties havent come in but one cause of concern from the Governor Musgrove camp is they are currently narrowly losing Montgomery county a key county in this race

Greenfield: Yes the fact is while yes it is a small county that wont net votes, it probably is a good bellwether for the state as a whole for this election but we have a long way to go and it will probably be another hour before we can find out what is going on.


9:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Woodruff: The polls have closed in Lousiana and currently we are unable to make a projection in that race. So Bill what are some keys for Mr.Jindal and Mrs. Blanco

Schinder: Well this race is shaping up to be a very pre 1994 map in the south with the democrats relying on a coalition of cities and rural areas to win and Republicans relying on running up the numbers in the suburbs and exurbs. So the key in my opinion is if either the trend of rural areas going more and more republican in the south can cause Mr.Jindal to do better there than expected or do better in the city thanks to the endorsement of the mayor there either of which would definitely cause him to win given how Republicans the suburbs and exurbs are.


So some key counties we will be watching to see is if Mr.Jindal can get to a third of the vote in Orleans Parish, win Western Baton Rogue or get some rural counties out west.


9:30:

Shaw: So far in Lousiana Mrs. Blanco holds a pretty large lead but thats cause more of her counties have come in at the moment while in Mississippi Mr.Barbour lead has dropped to around 5 points as the Dem areas have been coming in but there is still many Republican areas out there.

Greenfield: Mr.Barbour is doing really well in these key bellwether countries like Montgomery and in the South West that at this point id definitely say he is the favorite .

Schinder: In Lousiana I think there are signs that Mrs. Blanco is the favorite which is that she is winning LaSalle parish a parish which by the way hasnt voted Democratic at the presidential level since 1952 and was even a  county that even Jimmy Carter lost in 1976. So at this point id say Mr.Jindal is underperforming greatly in rural areas meaning he will need a higher higher share in either the suburbs or make signicant inroads which we will see if it happens.


10:30:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rchmoqssrQw&t=0s

Greenfield: With the Democratic areas in Mississippi just about in and Mr.Barbour holding a 4 point lead there I think the race is just about over

Shaw: You are correct about that as now we can project that the Republican Haley Barbour will be the next governor of Mississippi and only the 2nd Republican Governor there since reconstruction. So Bill how is Louisiana going  

Schneider: Well Mrs. Blanco lead has dropped while the suburbs come in but if you look at two key counties, one beign Orleans parish a place where Mr.Jindal needs to get at least 35% he is only getting 34% and in West baton Rogue where he needs to win he is currently losing by a point so if these numbers hold in the next hour I think the race is over and Mrs. Blanco will win.


11:42:


Schinder: At this point again with Orleans Parish in , Mr.Jindal has failed to get to 35% and also failed to win West Baton rouge and with him underperforming so greatly in rural Louisiana  I think this race is over

Woodruff: You are correct as CNN can now project that Kathleen Blanco will be the next governor of Louisiana and will be the first female governor of the state. This also means that every race resulted in a flip tonight

 

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Did the CA recall happen?

No since Riordan gets elected governor in 2002

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2004 Democratic Primary Polls: Russ Feingold Surges to Frontrunner status after taking national poll lead along with holding a lead in Iowa and taking lead in New Hampshire


Woodruff: With 6 weeks left to go to the Iowa caucus , and with primary polling remaining as tight as ever lets go over to Jeff Greenfield too see how the race is going

Greenfield: Well the nation polls are still very very tight but we do have a new frontrunner in the race and that is Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold after taking the lead in our latest national poll as you can see in our latest poll and the reason for that is in a large field like this the populist energy he has unleashed on the campaign trail has allowed him to surge ahead .

National Polls:

Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold 21%
Florida Senator Bob Graham 18%
Representative Dick Gephardt 15%
Deleware Senator Joe Biden 14%
Vermont Governor Howard Dean 12%
Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu 7%
Alabama Governor Don Siegelman 7%
Georgia Senator Zell Miller 2%
Congressman Dennis Kucinich 2%
Reverend Al Sharpton 1%


Greenfield: As you can see Feingold as dispatched Senator Graham and the 2000 Vice Presidential Nominee , Bob Graham from frontrunner status but remember these national polls really dont matter as we do our elections state by state and in a primary it matters even less as so much of a primary matters about momentum so lets look at the polls in Iowa and New Hampshire to see if he really is the frontrunner


Iowa Polls:

Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold 29%
Representative Dick Gephardt 21%
Florida Senator Bob Graham 15%
Delaware Senator Joe Biden 13%
Alabama Governor Don Siegelman 9%
Vermont Governor Howard Dean 6%
Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu 4%
Congressman Dennis Kucinich 2%
Others 1%

Greenfield: Mr. Miller and Mr.Sharpton arent showing up here as both are failing to even register 1% in the polls here. So in Iowa as you can see currently Senator Feingold has a solid lead and now lets look at New Hampshire


New Hampshire :

Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold 24%
Florida Senator Bob Graham 20%
Vermont Governor Howard Dean 17%
Representative Dick Gephardt 13%
Delaware Senator Joe Biden 11%
Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu 8%
Alabama Governor Don Siegelman 5%
Others 1%

Greenfield: Basically at this point whats interesting is Governor Dean is trying a similar strategy as President McCain did in 2000 and that is going all in New Hampshire in hopes he can use the momentum for that to propel him to the nomination. Keep in mind though much of the support of Senator Feingold and Governor Dean are similar and if Senator Feingold wins Iowa that could blow Governor Dean strategy out the window and cause many of his supporters to go to Senator Feingold giving him a win there


Woodruff: Bill do you think if Senator Feingold wins both Iowa and New Hampshire he is the clear frontrunner even if they are close

Schneider: If he wins both Iowa and New Hampshire not only do I think that he will be the clear frontrunner, the nomination would almost be close to over because after New Hampshire will be mini Tuesday and the momentum that carries over from those two states could pretty much cause him to dominate there. Many Democrats in Senator Graham, Senator Landrieu and Governor Siegelman were hoping to have South Carolina  have its primary on its own day before mini tuesday which if it did happen would mean that momentum from wins in Iowa and New Hampshire could be halted in South Carolina but it wont happen as South Carolina is just one primary on mini tuesday.

The Key thing though is there is still 6 weeks left which is a long time in politics and the lead is not that big so the reason Ill say that he isnt a clear frontrunner is because that lead can easily be wiped out in that period but if this result holds he very likely will be the Democratic nominee in the fall

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Breaking News: Former Iraqi Leader Saddam Hussein captured by American forces


Source: https://i.ytimg.com/vi/QYy4h2QOdN0/maxresdefault.jpg

Shaw: We have some breaking news to report and that is US forces have captured former Iraqi Leader Saddam Hussein who was deposed by US and allied forces back in March but has been a fugitive ever since then. Lets bringing in CNN's military correspondent who will tell us more

CNN Military Correspondent: Yes we are told that Suddam Hussain was in one of his secret hideaways but after months of US forces conducting a manhunt for him he was finally found and captured. This capture is a further sign that Iraq is on a path towards becoming a democracy but as the President has said multiple times there is still many years till the overall mission will be accomplished but this news increases the likelihood of the mission being accomplished.

Shaw: Does anyone know what will happen with Suddam Hussain now, so will he be also be tried by a court in Iraq, will he be  extradited to nations like Kuwait for his crimes , could be brought here to stand trial for his attempted assassination of former President George Bush or will he be tried by the International Criminal court

Correspondent: We dont know about that right now but we are getting word that the Secretary of State will make a statement about the capture in just a few moments

Shaw: Yes and lets head over to the White House to hear from Secretary Powell


Secretary of State Colin Powell: Saddam Hussein to be handed over to International Criminal Court to stand trial for the numerous war crimes he committed


Source: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ghdG_iwjBEs

Powell: I want to start of by thanking the hard work the men and women did in our uniform to find and capture Saddam Hussein. For the past two and a half Saddam Hussain has committed numerous war crimes both against his own people and among other nations as well and while it may have taken a long while to bring him to justice for his crimes , he will finally be brought to justice for all the crimes he has committed. Given he committed crimes against the people of Iraq, Israel, Iran, Kuwait, Saudi Arabia and many other nations across the region along with the crimes he committed against the United States,  he will be extradited and will be tried by the International Criminal Court for all the crimes he has committed.

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President McCain approvals surge after news about Suddam’s capture and Libya dismantling its WMD program

Shaw: In the wake of the news about Suddam capture and Libya dismantling its weapons program , President McCain’s approval have once again surged up to 69% the highest it has been since the spring of this year .

McCain’s Approval:

Approve : 69%(+8%)
Disapprove : 29%(-7%)

Shaw: In the House generic ballot republicans have taken a 7 point lead which is also the highest it has been in months

House Generic Ballot:

Republicans : 52%(+2%)
Democrats: 45%(-3%)

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Why can't this be reality?

Because GOP primary voters thought McCain conceived his daughter with a prostitute.

While I do like George W Bush as a person, that South Carolina push polling campaign was extremely dirty and I hope he apologized to McCain at some point for it

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Conference Committee comes to agreement for prescription drug reform bill after 3 months of negotiations

Woodruff: After 3 months of negotiations we are told the congressional conference committee was able to come to an agreement and reconcile the differences between the senate and house version of the prescription drug reform bill , and now the bill is expected to go to both houses for a final vote where it is expected to pass and then will be signed into law by the President.

Shaw: Yes and from the details we are getting it seems like the bill has a mix of what both sides wanted with the senate side getting the means testing parts in the bill and the house part getting more of the regulatory part and the coverage parts , both sides got around what they wanted. So lets look at the details of this bill:


- Has a deductible based on income meaning wealthier seniors will have a higher deductible as well

-  Provides a subsidy for large employers to discourage them from eliminating private prescription coverage to retired workers

- Allows medicare advantage to offer part D plans

- Wealthier Seniors will also be required to pay higher copays, higher premiums

- Lower income seniors will have 80% of every prescription drug transaction above $35 be covered by medicare and 90% of every transaction covered above their yearly deductible by medicare

- Middle class seniors will have 80% of every prescription drug transaction above $100 be covered by medicare and 80% of every transaction covered above their yearly deductible by medicare

- Wealthier seniors will have 80% of every transaction covered above their yearly deductible by medicare


Shaw: From what we are told this bill will also allow the government to create a formulary as they want and also have the power to negotiate prices with pharmaceutical companies .




House and Senate pass reconciled bill and President McCain signs it into law:


Woodruff: The House and Senate passed the reconciled healthcare bill into law earlier today and the President signed it into law calling it a huge win for seniors all across the nation and here are some of his other remarks


McCain: I want to start of by thanking members of both parties here today who without their hard work to not only making sure reform passes but to working together in a bipartisan manner this day wouldn't have happened. Thanks to their work today we are able to finally deliver a victory for seniors all across our nation as after nearly 10 years of debating we finally are able to get prescription drug coverage added to medicare coverage and we can finally ensure no senior has to choose between food and their medicine again. Thank You may God Bless You and may God Bless America

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Any Final predictions for Iowa and New Hampshire(will post update by Wednesday  night)

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Feingold wins Iowa and Biden finishes a surprise 2nd



Attribution: scott feldstein from waukesha, United States (direct link), CC BY 2.0 <https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/2.0>, via Wikimedia Commons

Woodruff: To recap the Iowa caucus , Senator Feingold won like he was expected to but Senator Joe Biden finished a surprise second after a strong debate performance and basically going all in Iowa as well. Senator Graham finished a disappointing third but there is still some time to go.


Iowa Caucus:
Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold: 26% 12 delegates
Delaware Joe Biden 19% 9 delegates
Florida Senator Bob Graham 16% 7 delegates
Representative Dick Gephardt 15% 7 delegates
Alabama Governor Don Siegelman 9% 4 delegates
Vermont Governor Howard Dean 7% 3 delegates
Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu 6% 3 delegates
Congressman Dennis Kucinich 1%
Others 1%

Shaw: In Response to a disappointing 4th place finish in Iowa, Representative and Former Minority Leader Dick Gephardt announced he would be dropping out of the race and endorsing Delaware Senator Joe Biden for President calling Mr.Biden's qualifications impressive and also talking about how their approach towards politics and the world is pretty similar.

Also Congressman Dennis Kucinich dropped out of the race and endorsed Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold calling him a strong populist anti war figure that he believes would make a great president. Lastly another candidate who dropped out was Georgia Senator Zell Miller who basically knew Iowa would be his last stand given how little money the campaign has left and their campaign was hoping to to do well enough to fix that problem which obviously didnt materialize . Senator Miller hasnt endorsed anyone and many believe he very well may endorse President McCain for his re-election bid but hasnt made up his mind on that yet.


Feingold and Biden essentially tie in New Hampshire

Woodruff: Senator Biden after receiving the endorsement of Congressman Gephardt surged in the polls following that and another good debate performance but Senator Feingold manages to maintain his frontrunner status with a very narrow win over Senator Biden and seems to have potentially knocked Governor Dean out of contention who absolutely needed a win in New Hampshire to continue .  

New Hampshire Primary:

Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold 25% 7 Delegates
Delaware Senator Joe Biden 25% 7 Delegates
Vermont Governor Howard Dean 22% 5 Delegates
Florida Senator Bob Graham 15% 3 Delegates
Lousiana Senator Mary Landrieu 6%
Alabama Governor Don Sieglman 6%
Reverend Al Sharpton 1%


Shaw: Yes you are right and Howard Dean has decided to drop out of the race and endorse Senator Feingold for the nomination claiming it clear that voters from the Democratic wing of the Democratic party want him to represent them and he will drop out due to that

Senator Graham also dropped out after another disappointing finish and endorsed Biden claiming Biden is the experienced pragmatic leader we need to lead us. Another candidate who dropped out was Reverend Sharpton who has decided not to endorse anyone for the primary

So Jeff is this a two way race

Greenfield: Well it sure looks like it but Siegelman and Landrieu have gone all in the mini Tuesday states so we will see but it looks like a two way race between Feingold and Biden with an advantage to Feingold at this point . Before we leave here is how the race stands at this point

Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold: 19 delegates
Delaware Senator Joe Biden 16 delegates
Florida Senator Bob Graham 10 Delegates
Vermont Governor Howard Dean 8 Delegates
Representative Dick Gephardt 7 delegates
Alabama Governor Don Siegelman 4 delegates
Louisiana Senator Mary Landrieu  3 delegates