European Parliament Election: May 23-26, 2019

[DavidB.]

Amazing result. Huge PiS, Confederacy out (which presumably means they'll be in shambles and fighting each other long before the parliamentary election too).

thought you'd be a fan of Korwin

Used to find him funny, but his alliance engaged in a thoroughly antisemitic campaign (basically shouting "PiS are bought by the Jews" very loudly) and their troll army on Twitter is horrible. Also don't really like Korwin's economically libertarian streak.

[DavidB.]

Lolol.

The list I voted for (Hamon's Génération.s) won 3.3%. That's better than I expected honestly.

And in Italy?

[DavidB.]

Norbert Hofer just said that he's not "opposed in principle" that Strache takes his EU parliament seat.

Said Hofer: "Fact is that Strache received an enormous amount of preference votes, enabling him to take the seat. It is HIS decision."

Which seems sensible when so many people voted for him after Ibizagate, showing a big middle finger to the ÖVP and the establishment. Really happy with this result.

[DavidB.]

I notice that the current EFDD group only has MEPs from 3 countries (Brexit Party, 5 Stars and AfD) They need 7 countries to form a group. Not certain they will be able to do it.

AfD will go to EAPN. EFDD's fate is very uncertain. Farage hates Le Pen but can't join ECR either (Tories).

[DavidB.]

Amazing result. Huge PiS, Confederacy out (which presumably means they'll be in shambles and fighting each other long before the parliamentary election too).

https://www.jpost.com/Israel-News/Polish-prime-minister-equates-returning-Jewish-property-to-Nazi-victory-590112

REALLY?!

I actually agree with the Polish guy. I find Israeli outrage at Poland lately to be almost fainting-couch worthy. Especially coming from an almost unapologetically racist government like ours.

The authoritarian PiS government has shown to, again and again, engage in foul rhetoric on the Holocaust and Jews. Comparing compensating Jews for their lost property to a "Hitler victory" is not even trying to hide their antisemitism.

As if Foreign Affairs Minister (!) Yisrael Katz's statement generalizing all Poles as antisemites was acceptable.

The diplomatic conflict between Poland and Israel is highly unfortunate, but in essence I think Poland is right: forcing 'compensation' for something that cannot possibly be compensated from a nation that, often forgotten (which Poles don't need any reminding of), was one of the main victims of Nazism and Communism too, is wrong. I wouldn't use PiS' language but I also wouldn't use Likud's language towards Poles and yet I'm happy Likud won the Israeli election too, despite my problems with them. It is what it is.

[DavidB.]

I guess the zionist left can legitimately support Ilhan Omar and her sort now. Her rhetoric is hardly worse than PiS', and she didn't pass a law limiting Jewish freedom of speech.

Poland not being willing to pay tens of millions (or even more) in reparations isn't the same as Omar questioning Israel's right to exist.

[DavidB.]

I guess the zionist left can legitimately support Ilhan Omar and her sort now. Her rhetoric is hardly worse than PiS', and she didn't pass a law limiting Jewish freedom of speech.

Poland not being willing to pay tens of millions (or even more) in reparations isn't the same as Omar questioning Israel's right to exist.

Comparing a debatable proposal (that I don't necessarily agree with, though many countries in eastern Europe bear a lot of responsibility they still need to account for, even if with words only) to Hitler's victory is worse than her dodgy comment attacking AIPAC with a classic antisemitic trope. Throwing people into jails for speaking about the Holocaust is not just a severe attack on the freedom of speech that people seem to be willing to ignore in these types of authoritarian governments, but is also a worse attack on Jews than any of Omar's mere rhetoric. She's just an example, of course. Far-right governments in eastern Europe have too long played a double game of legitimization by the Israeli right while encouraging and emboldening the worst antisemitic parts of their societies.

Eastern European governments' poor choice of words doesn't endanger Jews, just like the Israeli government's poor choice of words doesn't endanger Poles. Omar and her fellow travelers' ambiguity on the legitimacy of Israel's existence does endanger Jews.

[DavidB.]

The percentage of female MEPs from the Netherlands will increase from 34.6% to 46.2%.

Since the 2017 GE, the campaign "vote for a woman" has been pretty successful in the Netherlands. Before this election, many women voted for a female candidate who was sure to be elected (usually at #2 on the list), thereby not affecting the percentage of women in elected bodies. The campaign clearly advocates for voting for a female candidate on the list of your party of choice below the number of seats that polls project "your" party to win. If enough people do so, female candidates reach the preference threshold (25% of a seat for parliamentary elections) and are elected instead of people higher up the list - and then you have to hope it's not a woman who is replaced, as has happened quite a few times too. It is also disproportionately left-wing voters doing this, causing left-wing parties to have representations that lean even more female while not affecting the imbalance in right-wing parties as much.

This time, three women at a theoretically unelectable spot were elected with preference votes. Kim van Sparrentak (GL, #7) will replace another woman for the third GL seat, namely Eline van Nistelrooij (#3). But two female candidates will replace male candidates: Samira Rafaela (D66, #3) replaces Raoul Boucke (#2) and VVD candidate Liesje Schreinemacher (#5) replaces Bart Groothuis (#4). Both Rafaela and (especially) Schreinemacher had very visible personal campaigns (as opposed to Groothuis and Boucke), so definitely not just 'strategic' voting in these cases.

Another interesting case was that CU candidate Anja Hage (#3) received a lot of preference votes too (both because of her sex and, presumably, because CU voters wanted to vote in a second CU candidate). Tricky, because CU and SGP ran together and the second seat would belong to the SGP. In the end it didn't matter because SGP candidate Bert-Jan Ruissen at #2 received even more preference votes than Hage, but it was pretty close. Wonder what would have happened if Hage had received more votes than Ruissen, since CU-SGP still wouldn't have enough votes for two seats without all those SGP voters. It could also have affected group formation: with two seats, CU would have a stronger claim in trying to keep FVD (3 seats) out of ECR.

[DavidB.]

Dutch Forum voor Democratie (FVD), the German Family Party and Greek Solution have just been accepted into ECR. Dutch ChristenUnie opposed FVD entering the group and left the room.

https://twitter.com/ecrgroup/status/1136267649279766529

[DavidB.]

Any chance that CU joins EPP?

It's the most likely option, I think. But I can also imagine them going NI or ultimately staying in ECR and staying mad.

[DavidB.]

CU and SGP are both out of ECR according to the Dutch public broadcaster. SGP MEP Bas Belder did vote for FVD's accession to the group (and even says on Twitter he heartily and vocally endorsed it), unlike CU MEP Peter van Dalen. But SGP MEP-elect Bert Jan Ruissen, who succeeds Belder, will join Van Dalen on the way out.

[DavidB.]

I have no doubts that CU would be accepted into the EPP group, but SGP is more fundamentalist so their chances are IMO lower?

SGP probably don't want to be in EPP in the first place, as they are too euroskeptical for it. I don't think they'd be rejected (would be a bit ridiculous as long as Fidesz remain in...), but it'd be ideal for the SGP as they wouldn't have to be the ones breaking up with CU. I sort of expect SGP to end up in ECR anyway when all will be said and done. Ruissen is more on the left of the party than his predecessor Belder, but the fact of the matter is that the EPP just isn't a good fit for a party as euroskeptical as the SGP - ECR is a natural fit for them.

[DavidB.]

On the other hand, Strache badly needs a job now because he’s virtually unemployed right now and the EU parliament seat would be lucrative (10.000€+ per month).

Won't he get a ton of money for years to come?

[DavidB.]

I have no doubts that CU would be accepted into the EPP group, but SGP is more fundamentalist so their chances are IMO lower?

SGP probably don't want to be in EPP in the first place, as they are too euroskeptical for it. I don't think they'd be rejected (would be a bit ridiculous as long as Fidesz remain in...), but it'd be ideal for the SGP as they wouldn't have to be the ones breaking up with CU. I sort of expect SGP to end up in ECR anyway when all will be said and done. Ruissen is more on the left of the party than his predecessor Belder, but the fact of the matter is that the EPP just isn't a good fit for a party as euroskeptical as the SGP - ECR is a natural fit for them.

SGP haven't officially left, it turns out, but are 'reorienting' themselves together with the CU, who did leave.

However, the CU-SGP relationship has become incredibly strained following disagreement with regard to the treatment of Forum not only here, but also in several provinces. Rumor has it that the SGP are done with the CU's seemingly never-ending leftward turn and will terminate their alliance with CU both in the European Parliament and in the province of Zuid-Holland (as well as elsewhere, possibly), upon which SGP would stay in ECR and a coalition with FVD and SGP could be formed in ZH.

[DavidB.]

Belgium - N-VA 3 (there are talks but N-VA might prefer a more mainstream group like the EPP or to stay in the ECR?)

Now that Vox are in ECR, N-VA may leave for that reason. I really don't see them enter a group with Farage though... And they're definitely not entering a group with Jobbik.

[DavidB.]

Flemish N-VA have just decided to remain in ECR even though Vox appear to be entering the group too.

[DavidB.]

Today, ECR held its constitutive meeting in the EP. Ryszard Legutko (PiS) and Raffaele Fitto (FdI) will co-chair the group. Vice-chairs will be Derk Jan Eppink (FVD), Daniel Hannan (Conservatives), Assita Kanko (N-VA), Peter Lundgren (Sweden Democrats), Hermann Tertsch (Vox) and Roberts Zile (National Alliance). Dutch CU are out, SGP remain in.

[DavidB.]

Today, ECR held its constitutive meeting in the EP. Ryszard Legutko (PiS) and Raffaele Fitto (FdI) will co-chair the group. Vice-chairs will be Derk Jan Eppink (FVD), Daniel Hannan (Conservatives), Assita Kanko (N-VA), Peter Lundgren (Sweden Democrats), Hermann Tertsch (Vox) and Roberts Zile (National Alliance). Dutch CU are out, SGP remain in.

This alliance seems much more conservative than beforehand for some reason.

The Tories and ODS used to dominate the group, but now that PiS won 26 seats (they had 14) and the Tories only have 4 (and are supposed to be out of the EU soon), PiS have clearly taken the opportunity to invite likeminded movements. The Danish People's Party and the Finns Party were on the right of the group and have left to ID, but Forum and Vox have a similar profile and in that sense 'replaced' them. Lots of smallish, less renowned parties who failed to get in this time have been replaced by fewer parties who won more seats and have a more clear national conservative profile. As an FVD member I am really happy how all of this turned out.

[DavidB.]

CU have joined EPP.

[DavidB.]

Really happy Timmermans wasn't picked for the EC presidency. Strong signal: if you push mass immigration on Central and Eastern Europe and seek to curtail their sovereignty, you pay a heavy political price. The next round of European Commissioners should take note. Orbán, PiS and M5S-Lega won this one.

Von der Leyen was an utterly incompetent minister and was imposed by the heads of government rather than through the Spitzenkandidaten process, which was always a sham. As long as the EU exists, the heads of government should clearly stand above the EU Commission, so that's a good thing. And we were always going to get a terrible Eurofederalist. Better to have an incompetent one who committed plagiarism while writing her thesis instead of a competent, clear-sighted, ideologically insane one like Timmermans.

[DavidB.]

Not sure what the collaborationist, fiercely Nazi mayor of Antwerp during WWII has to do with Pedro Sanchez...

[DavidB.]

Slovenia looking for Enlargement
https://www.euractiv.com/section/politics/news/member-states-eye-eu-commission-portfolios/

Enlargement is a minefield for Slovenia. Not necessarily a smart decision with France and the Netherlands' unwavering opposition to enlargement, which means a Slovenian will have to sell the WB6, situated in the country's vicinity, a "no" for five years. This is also why Bulgarian PM Borisov didn't want Georgieva to become High Representative. And the accession process of the WB6 is already contentious given that they are highly dissatisfied with the lack of progress. Though few of them deserve it: Serbia is sliding into authoritarianism, Albania's opposition is still boycotting elections, Montenegro has a less-than-kosher strongman, North Macedonia has got a long way to go, Kosovo should first come to an agreement with Serbia (and has a gazillion other problems), and Bosnia is as paralyzed as ever.

[DavidB.]

Happy the Spitzenkandidat process was killed off and especially happy Timmermans didn't become Commissioner.

VDL is awful and her plans are frightening, especially the climate voodoo package, the EU-wide social security system, and the scrapping of the EUMS' vetoes. But I doubt anything overly radical will pass in the Council. Hopefully she will be as weak and incompetent as she is supposed to be.

For the sake of gender equality I also think it is important that the Netherlands now propose a female Commissioner for VDL to pick from, not just Timmermans #EuropeIsAWoman