Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[Ogre Mage]

This is worth noting as the consensus of party insiders often has an effect on who makes the short list --

In discussions with The New York Times since Biden’s big primary victories on Tuesday, 60 Democratic National Committee members and congressional and party leaders most frequently proposed three former rivals of Biden as his running mate — Sen. Kamala Harris of California, Sen. Elizabeth Warren of Massachusetts and Sen. Amy Klobuchar of Minnesota.   

https://www.chicagotribune.com/election-2020/ct-nw-nyt-biden-running-mate-female-rivals-20200320-otpazgkawzehzcstujobx3v2eu-story.html

[Ogre Mage]

I asked this a couple of days ago and got no answers, so maybe this time I'll be more lucky.
Which exactly are Klobuchar's apostasies that make her a "moderate" and anathema to the left-wing of the party?

I am not a "true leftist" and don't presume to speak for them.  But some criticisms of Kloubchar I've heard from progressives --

She won't support Medicare for All, free four-year college or a wealth tax.  Some say the tough on crime policies she supported as a District Attorney were draconian.

As an LGBTQ American, I did notice that Klobuchar was not out front on same-sex marriage when that battle was going on.  For years she hedged on the issue.  President Obama endorsed same-sex marriage around May 2012.  Shortly after that, Klobuchar did the same.

[Ogre Mage]

She won't support Medicare for All, free four-year college or a wealth tax.  

The pertinent question here should be whether she disagrees on principle (she considers them bad policy) or simply because there is still no credible plan to fund them.

Specifically on free four-year college, Klobuchar said if she was a "magic genie" and we could afford it, she would do it.

[Ogre Mage]

Honestly, if the list is Kamala Harris, Elizabeth Warren, Amy Klobuchar, Tammy Duckworth, Tammy Baldwin, Cortez-Masto, Demmings; he's most likely going to be Kamala Harris or Amy Klobuchar to be VP, his criteria is for someone who agrees with him completely and who he gets along with

I also think Biden is looking very closely at Harris and Klobuchar.  He was asked if he wanted a running mate who had experience running as a presidential candidate herself.  Biden replied said it was "important" to have a running mate with that experience.

[Ogre Mage]

Biden has told Harry Reid that CCM is in his top three-

I think Sen. Harris and Sen. Klobuchar round out the Top Three with Sen. Cortez Masto.

[Ogre Mage]

For those asking about Duckworth... there’s the case of her denigrating Sanders and the people of New York, as well as the workplace retaliation lawsuit against her.

https://www.google.com/amp/s/www.nbcchicago.com/news/local/duckworth-settles-workplace-retaliation-lawsuit/2008001/%3famp

Which brings up a point I made earlier -- a lot of Kloubchar's and Harris's dirty laundry is already out there due to their presidential campaigns.  People who are saying that CCM and Duckworth are so much better should take note that the national media has not given either a close examination yet.

[Ogre Mage]

Biden will regret locking himself in to picking a Female running mate.  His decision precludes Sherrod Brown and Cory Booker, both of whom could have helped him significantly.  As could have candidates with real substance such as Jay Inslee and Michael Bennet.

Now he's locked in.

We don't care what Republicans think about our running mate.

[Ogre Mage]

Biden will regret locking himself in to picking a Female running mate.  His decision precludes Sherrod Brown and Cory Booker, both of whom could have helped him significantly.  As could have candidates with real substance such as Jay Inslee and Michael Bennet.

Now he's locked in.

We don't care what Republicans think about our running mate.

I don't care about your not caring.

You don't speak for all Democrats here anyway.  And I'm a Kerry and Obama voter, and a 2 time Bill Clinton voter, who voted a straight ticket for Florida offices in 2018.  So your political acumen can stand a tad of fine tuning.

So you are planning on or seriously considering voting for Biden then?

[Ogre Mage]

Biden will regret locking himself in to picking a Female running mate.  His decision precludes Sherrod Brown and Cory Booker, both of whom could have helped him significantly.  As could have candidates with real substance such as Jay Inslee and Michael Bennet.

Now he's locked in.

We don't care what Republicans think about our running mate.

I don't care about your not caring.

You don't speak for all Democrats here anyway.  And I'm a Kerry and Obama voter, and a 2 time Bill Clinton voter, who voted a straight ticket for Florida offices in 2018.  So your political acumen can stand a tad of fine tuning.

So you are planning on or seriously considering voting for Biden then?

I haven't ruled it out.

I didn't decide to vote for McCain in 2008 until I went into the voting booth.  I was going to vote for Bush in 2004, but I changed my mind and voted for Kerry late in the campaign.

I have no way of knowing if you vote for Biden in real life.  But if you at least vote for Biden in the 2020 Mock Presidential Election on this site (which has not been released yet) send me a PM so I can verify.  It should show up in the "Atlas Presidential Mock Election Endorsement History" of your profile.  I will send you a PM apologizing for my earlier statement.

https://uselectionatlas.org/MOCK/

Until then, based on your posting history and avatar I am assuming your statement was typical Trump supporter bile aimed at denigrating female Democrats.

[Ogre Mage]

Biden will regret locking himself in to picking a Female running mate.  His decision precludes Sherrod Brown and Cory Booker, both of whom could have helped him significantly.  As could have candidates with real substance such as Jay Inslee and Michael Bennet.

Now he's locked in.

We don't care what Republicans think about our running mate.

I don't care about your not caring.

You don't speak for all Democrats here anyway.  And I'm a Kerry and Obama voter, and a 2 time Bill Clinton voter, who voted a straight ticket for Florida offices in 2018.  So your political acumen can stand a tad of fine tuning.

So you are planning on or seriously considering voting for Biden then?

I haven't ruled it out.

I didn't decide to vote for McCain in 2008 until I went into the voting booth.  I was going to vote for Bush in 2004, but I changed my mind and voted for Kerry late in the campaign.

I have no way of knowing if you vote for Biden in real life.  But if you at least vote for Biden in the 2020 Mock Presidential Election on this site (which has not been released yet) send me a PM so I can verify.  It should show up in the "Atlas Presidential Mock Election Endorsement History" of your profile.  I will send you a PM apologizing for my earlier statement.

https://uselectionatlas.org/MOCK/

Until then, based on your posting history and avatar I am assuming your statement was typical Trump supporter bile aimed at denigrating female Democrats.

I'm not a "likely" Biden voter.  I'd vote for Trump if the election were held today.  But it's not being held today. 

My comments were made as a statement on strategy.  From a political science point of view.  Whether I vote Democratic or Republican, there will be a load of issues on which I will disagree with the candidate of my choice on.

That is what I thought.  Let me rephrase what I said earlier -- we have no reason to care what Trump supporters think about our running mate.

[Ogre Mage]

Not sure why more governors haven't been picked over the years.

I think it has to do with immediate readiness for the presidential campaign.  A presidential candidate has as much time as they need to prepare before they begin their campaign.  But a running mate is thrown into the scrum at the last minute and has to get up to speed on federal issues VERY fast.

For senators, this is relatively easy -- they are already steeped in federal issues from their day job.  But many governors have never had federal experience.  Some have -- Mike Pence, for instance, served in the U.S. House for a decade before becoming governor.  But a governor lacking that experience is put in a massively high pressure cooker having to bone up on a huge amount of new material in a very short amount of time.  It is often a recipe for failure (see Sarah Palin).

[Ogre Mage]

The case against Abrams has been done a thousand times and it has to do with her experience and the fact that the highest office she held was state house minority leader. People might perceive her as unprepared and accuse Biden of tokenism.
We saw how suburban voters reacted unfavorably in 2008 to Palin and while Abrams is much more qualified the risk for this to happen again is real.

In my view the coronavirus crisis has increased these concerns.  With a deadly virus on the loose, people will want an experienced, steady hand in the No. 2 spot in case something happens to 77 year-old Biden.

[Ogre Mage]

Article on Biden's running mate selection from Sabato's Crystal Ball --

http://centerforpolitics.org/crystalball/articles/applying-conventional-criteria-to-bidens-unconventional-vice-presidential-pool/

[Ogre Mage]

Some clues:

1.  Biden has said he wants a running mate with whom he is "simpatico" ideologically.
2.  He wants someone who is ready to step into the presidency immediately if need be.
3.  He wants someone who has strength in areas where he is weak or inexperienced.
4.  He said a running mate who has experience being a presidential candidate is "important."

Elizabeth Warren fails badly on the "simpatico" criteria.  She and Biden have been arguing over the issues for decades.   She does well under the other three criteria.  Additionally, there is the problem of temporarily surrendering her Senate seat to the GOP due to the GOP governor there.

Tammy Duckworth does well on the first three criteria:  simpatico, ready to be president and contrasting experience (Biden has never served in the military).  However, she has never run as a presidential candidate.

Catherine Cortez Masto is similar to Duckworth.  She fits the first three criteria but has never run as a presidential candidate.

Amy Klobuchar is simpatico, ready to be president and has run a presidential campaign.  However, most would say that she fails the "contrasting strengths" test -- she and Biden are too similar.

Kamala Harris appears to fit all four criteria.

[Ogre Mage]

Let's be real: it's going to be be a black woman.

After all, Biden is going to thanks black voters who bailed him out during the primary.

If that is true, I predict he will choose Kamala Harris.

[Ogre Mage]

Some clues:

1.  Biden has said he wants a running mate with whom he is "simpatico" ideologically.
2.  He wants someone who is ready to step into the presidency immediately if need be.
3.  He wants someone who has strength in areas where he is weak or inexperienced.
4.  He said a running mate who has experience being a presidential candidate is "important."

Elizabeth Warren fails badly on the "simpatico" criteria.  She and Biden have been arguing over the issues for decades.   She does well under the other three criteria.  Additionally, there is the problem of temporarily surrendering her Senate seat to the GOP due to the GOP governor there.

Tammy Duckworth does well on the first three criteria:  simpatico, ready to be president and contrasting experience (Biden has never served in the military).  However, she has never run as a presidential candidate.

Catherine Cortez Masto is similar to Duckworth.  She fits the first three criteria but has never run as a presidential candidate.

Amy Klobuchar is simpatico, ready to be president and has run a presidential campaign.  However, most would say that she fails the "contrasting strengths" test -- she and Biden are too similar.

Kamala Harris appears to fit all four criteria.

What strengths does Harris bring to the table in areas where Biden is weak or inexperienced.  I don't see what she brings to the table to begin with, much less in areas where Biden is weak.  I mean, I suppose one could point to the fact that she's an African-American woman, but Biden already has far stronger support in the African-American community than she does and everyone Biden is considering is a woman.  I don't see any upside to picking Harris, but maybe someone can explain to me what I'm missing here.

--Serving as a State Attorney General for the most populous state in the nation and as a District Attorney are professional experiences Biden has not had.  A prosecutor like Harris could be a strong attack dog on the trail.  We saw flashes of that in the Democratic Primary, but she could not go full out like she could in a general election.

--She offers a clear demographic contrast with Biden in terms of age, gender and race.  In a coalition party like the Democratic Party, that matters.  Black voters rescued Biden's campaign and black women are the drivers of the black vote.  Furthermore, Harris is the only potential black female running mate with the traditionally elite credentials associated with that position (serving as U.S. Senator or governor).  She's far less vulnerable to charges she is an under-qualified affirmative action pick.

--Harris would be the first person on a major party ticket to graduate from an HBCU (Howard).  Because of that, I think her longtime professional network is quite different from Biden's.

--Harris represents California, which is a very different place from Biden's home state of Delaware.  Almost every aspect of the Democratic Base can be found there:  feminists, Hispanics, Asians, LGBTQ, labor, environmentalists, Hollywood, etc.  She has had to court all of them to win statewide in California three times.

--Many are criticizing Harris because her presidential campaign exposed a lot of her dirty laundry.
 But it also shows she went through the fire of an examination by the national media and is still considered a valuable running mate.  Only Amy Klobuchar and Elizabeth Warren can also say they survived such an examination.  Those who are boosting Duckworth, CCM and/or Whitmer should note they have NOT been put under the national media microscope.  They may not look so good once that happens.

Biden ran for president in 2008 and flopped like a walrus off a diving board (he got less than 1% in the Iowa Caucus and then dropped out).  Obama picked him as VP anyway.  So there is reason to think Biden is looking closely at his former primary rivals.  He may see himself in them.

[Ogre Mage]

Politico with a piece pitching Whitmer.

https://www.politico.com/news/magazine/2020/04/09/gretchen-whitmer-governor-michigan-profile-2020-coronavirus-biden-vp-177791

She may not end up being Biden's VP, but she's certainly presidential material some day.

She is on a good start but let's wait. Jennifer Granholm was considered presidential material back in the day.

When Whitmer first burst on the scene my first thought was that she reminded me of former Gov. Jennifer Granholm (except Whitmer is constitutionally eligible to run for president).  The Michigan GOP tried to tar her as Granholm 2.0.  Whitmer won, so it seems voters either were fine with the comparison or did not agree with it.

[Ogre Mage]

This was an interesting editorial:

What may be surprising is that running mates usually fail to deliver votes among targeted geographic or demographic groups ... Our research shows running mates matter, above all else, by shaping how voters view the presidential candidate who selects them. Running mates indirectly influence voter choice by changing perceptions of the presidential candidate — which, in turn, changes votes.

https://www.latimes.com/opinion/story/2020-04-12/biden-vice-president-choice

[Ogre Mage]

Wow, looks like Klobuchar, Gabbard, and Duckworth are the only good options left. Hopefully Joe sees the light.

Gabbard adds nothing.

Gabbard is so bad her selection would case major damage to Biden's chances of winning.  She is now a persona non grata in the Democratic Party, including her home state.  There would be a political firestorm and possibly even a convention walkout.  Biden is smarter than that.

[Ogre Mage]

Abrams takes public lobbying for the VP job to new heights:

https://www.elle.com/culture/career-politics/a32132819/stacey-abrams-on-voting-rights-covid-19-and-being-vice-president/

Stacey Abrams does not give the expected answer when I ask if she would accept an offer from former vice president Joe Biden to serve as his 2020 running mate. “Yes. I would be honored,” Abrams says. “I would be an excellent running mate. I have the capacity to attract voters by motivating typically ignored communities. I have a strong history of executive and management experience in the private, public, and nonprofit sectors. I’ve spent 25 years in independent study of foreign policy. I am ready to help advance an agenda of restoring America’s place in the world. If I am selected, I am prepared and excited to serve.”

"I would be an excellent running mate" isn't the expected answer to this question.

Abrams' blatant public lobbying has historically not been successful in becoming vice president.  Neither Gore, Cheney, Pence or Biden himself took that approach.  Perhaps she thinks it might be more effective in the social media age we live in but I find it hard to believe an old-school pol like Biden will respond well.

The viable running mate candidates are not taking this approach.  They don't need to.  

[Ogre Mage]

Wow, looks like Klobuchar, Gabbard, and Duckworth are the only good options left. Hopefully Joe sees the light.

Gabbard adds nothing.

Gabbard is so bad her selection would case major damage to Biden's chances of winning.  She is now a persona non grata in the Democratic Party, including her home state.  There would be a political firestorm and possibly even a convention walkout.  Biden is smarter than that.

So centrist Dems with TDS are gonna abandon Biden if he picks a running mate that those centrist Dems smeared with bogus accusations?

No "centrist Dems" forced Gabbard to vote "present" on impeachment or say that "both sides" were to blame for the government shutdown.

[Ogre Mage]

She asked, she answered, pretty straightforward.

She answered the same in 2016. This is not remotely close to what Abrams is doing.

I agree but the fact that Warren gave such a straightforward answer makes me speculate that she thinks her chances are not great.  Unquestioned short-list candidates Harris, Klobuchar and CCM all gave semi-evasive answers when asked about their running mate prospects.  They are clearly doing the Dance of the Seven Veils/Kabuki Theater that happens every four years during the running mate selection process.

[Ogre Mage]

Harris says she'd be honored:
https://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/493206-harris-on-if-shed-serve-as-bidens-vp-id-be-honored-to-serve-with-joe?fbclid=IwAR2jXFpoK9CLvNF4FlmZTXK0xxG1yYlq5Gn33d7ZB90-1uABFVc_E786K8M

"I would be honored if I were being considered" is a much better and politically savvier answer than "I would be an excellent running mate," which is what Abrams said.

[Ogre Mage]

Whitmer says that she will be part of Biden's VP vetting team but she won't be the pick:

"I'm going to help him vet and make sure he's got a great running mate. It is not going to be me," she added with a smile. "But I'm going to have a hand in helping make sure that that he has got the rounded out ticket that can win.”

https://www.detroitnews.com/story/news/politics/2020/03/16/whitmer-biden-pledge-female-vice-president-pick-not-me/5058449002/

Normally I would ignore the "it's not going to be me" statement because that is a typical denial for top running mate prospects.  The fact Gretchen Whitmer is on Biden's running mate vetting team is the more newsworthy item.  Which raises an interesting question -- which of the other candidates is Whitmer likely to favor?  She and Klobuchar appear to have the most in common, but that doesn't mean she would recommend Klobuchar as the best choice.

It is not unheard of for a running mate vetter to wind up as the running mate -- Cheney did in 2000.  But for Whitmer to do that while simultaneously managing the coronavirus crisis in her state -- that seems unlikely to me.

[Ogre Mage]

This guy is BSing. They literally haven't formed the committee for vetting yet.

And yet look at how many people treat this BS seriously.
Cabin fever is starting to set in.

We're climbing the walls and can't take it anymore, lol.  

While I voted for Warren in the primary I think she is not likely to be chosen for the following reasons:

-- Not "simpatico."  That was one of Biden's stated criteria.  He and Warren had substantive disagreement on the issues long before the start of the 2020 campaign as well as during it.

--Age.  She is younger than Biden (another one of his requirements).  But Biden talked about being a "bridge" to the next "generation of leaders."  At age 70 I don't think she provides the generational contrast he and many in the party are looking for.

--Republican Governor in MA.  Perhaps there is a way they could finagle so Warren's senate seat is not temporarily lost, but it is a problem.