Biden VP news megathread (pg 286 - been selected, announcement could be today)

[Ogre Mage]

Yes, Demings may have broader appeal than Harris! To people here, broader appeal means appealing to Bernie's 2% hardcore most leftists. I am referring to the undecided/soft lean Biden moderates.

From what I have seen the anti-Trump Republicans like Harris just fine, despite the fact that they acknowledge she is very liberal. As a matter of fact, the only VP contender they seem to dislike is Warren.

You have a warped view of who swing voters are, most likely because as a foreigner your exposure to people outside the Democratic Party is entirely online. "Anti-Trump Republicans" aren't the concern -- it's the older, whiter, less-ideological, less-"informed", less-college-educated, less-partisan voters who've signaled in polls to be open to voting for Biden. This is a unique opportunity and there's no state in America where this isn't an important voting demographic. But I assure you Harris is poison to this group.

My opposition to Harris has less to do with the 2020 election anyway, and more to do with the consultants and political hacks, who've never won anything being rewarded with the Vice Presidency and keys to the party in four years. It's a straight-up coup. I didn't sign up for this.

Biden may have some appeal to that group but to be frank he does not generate huge enthusiasm from the Democratic base.  He won the primary because he was seen as the most electable. He needs to get excitement from at least some part of the base.   Expecting the Democratic base to fall in line on the VP pick just to satisfy the above group is unfair not to mention a bad electoral strategy in this era of polarization.  We saw what happened in 2016.  Hatred of Trump is not enough. And many Democrats put aside our preferred choices to accept Biden as the nominee.

People who did this were signalling they would be prepared to vote for a ticket that didn't enthuse them. I'm not saying Biden can afford to run an obnoxiously centrist campaign (his strength among AA voters seems pretty overrated relative to his performance within other demographic groups, in my opinion), but people who voted for him were showing a willingness to show up in November for his campaign as it stood then rather than with their preferred VP pick. This should have been (and outside of Atlas, I suspect it largely was) clear to those who voted for him.

When I talked about Democrats who put aside their preference to accept Biden as the nominee, I was speaking about those who did NOT vote for him in the primary but now accept him as the nominee.  I am one of them.

[Ogre Mage]

When I talked about Democrats who put aside their preference to accept Biden as the nominee, I was speaking about those who did NOT vote for him in the primary but now accept him as the nominee.  I am one of them.

Tammy Baldwin is apparently being vetted, and (they'd be dark horses, but) there's been some as-of-yet undenied speculation regarding Karen Bass, Hilda Solis, Barbara Lee, Katie Porter and Ayanna Pressley.

If this is the group of voters to court, why do you think Harris would be a better pick than any of the above figures? I can see a case for her adding a great electoral boost to the ticket overall, but am interested in seeing arguments for her having more appeal than any of the figures I just mentioned to non-Biden primary voters specifically.

Because the running mate needs to do more than just appeal to the Democratic base.  They also need to be a plausible president on "Day 1" (Biden's words).  Baldwin is plausible, but there are terrible problems with regards to retaining her Senate seat and I don't think she would be a satisfying choice for the African-American part of the base.  In Wisconsin she has not had much experience appealing to black voters.

The others have either been out of office for a long time (Hilda Solis) or are district-level public officials who don't have experience appealing to a wider electorate.  Additionally, Porter and Pressley (both of whom I think are potential rising stars) were just elected so they would face even bigger questions about necessary experience.  Lee is so far on the left I think she WOULD scare off moderate voters.  None of them have been seriously tested on the national stage.

Harris has won statewide office three times (twice as AG, once as a U.S. Senator).  She has been vetted on the national stage by running a presidential campaign.  She's not going to flake out when the cameras come on.  Her name recognition is also higher.  She's the only black woman in the U.S. Senate and the only black woman whose credentials cannot be seriously questioned in terms of presidential preparedness.  I also think she's been working very hard to be responsive to the Democratic base's concerns since the coronavirus and George Floyd crises have broke.

[Ogre Mage]

LOL at the comments of this tweet who say that Harris is worse than Palin.
I'm starting to believe that Harris Derangement Syndrome is a thing.

Harris is widely perceived as the frontrunner for the vice presidency.  And there's not much time left.  The supporters of other candidates are frantically trying to take her down.

[Ogre Mage]

It's funny reading everyone bicker around here. The VP pick seems to have become a proxy war in the party.

It's been like this before.  While Biden seems like an obvious choice in hindsight, there was considerable intraparty debate in 2008 that Obama should pick Hillary.  As it turned out he had another job in mind for her.

2016 was not quite as contentious, but I remember the talk about how Hillary should choose Warren to satisfy Sanders supporters.  I believe she would have selected Sherrod Brown if there had not been a Republican Governor in Ohio.

[Ogre Mage]

Two articles on Harris, one in Politico and the other an interview in A.P.  Both cover a mix of her leading the Democratic response to the GOP's police "reform" bill and her vice presidential prospects.

The California Democrat tore into a GOP proposal from Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) as inadequate before he even finished writing it. She coordinated with former 2020 rival Sen. Cory Booker (D-N.J.) and Minority Leader Chuck Schumer (D-N.Y.) on a letter rejecting the GOP’s approach on the floor. And she tangled with a senior Republican on the Senate floor over Democrats’ opposition to even debating the GOP bill, producing a moment that went viral on the left.

While Harris and her party were pummeled by the right after they went public with their opposition to even beginning floor debate on the GOP’s bill, their position is backed in the civil rights community.  “The black community is tired of the lip service,” said Ben Crump, the prominent civil rights attorney who is representing George Floyd’s family.

Crump said he wants to see a black woman picked as Biden’s No. 2, and Harris’ resolve in the Senate on police reform has only solidified his opinion of her.

“Kamala would be an outstanding vice president,” he said. “She has the right temperament. She has the sensitivity to listen when necessary, but to lead when it is required on issues that matter.”

https://www.politico.com/news/2020/06/23/kamala-harris-gop-police-336150

AP: A lot of voices in your party have begun to say Biden needs to have a Black woman on the ticket. Do you think that is what is necessary to kind of rise to the occasion of this moment?

HARRIS: I will tell you and I say this with all sincerity and candor: I want Joe Biden to pick whoever is going to help him win. Period. He has to win. There is too much at stake in our country right now. Donald Trump has been a failure as a president on almost every level. He came into office trying to sow hate and division among us. He has been dishonest with the American people tens of thousands of times. He has failed to lead on the greatest public health crisis and therefore economic crisis we’ve seen in generations, where he was in abject denial and then basically tried to muzzle the health care experts and mislead the American people. We need a president of the United States who has in their DNA the ability and the desire to lift up the condition and the spirit of the American people. And I know Joe Biden can do that, and he needs to win.

https://apnews.com/6f0196db1d2e7fc390968dbba268a16e

[Ogre Mage]

I just see it as the Clinton crowd is for Harris, the Sanders/Labor movement crowd is for Warren and the Obama crowd is for Rice. When I mean crowd I mean the donors in the Party.

KLB seems.to be getting a nice raise in profile but no one thinks she's ready to be VP,  for some reason I think with her being Chair of the Platform, Biden might want her as Chief of Staff.

Demings is a hard one to put my finger on other than Pelosi wants a House member on the ticket, so I guess her donor base.

I'm curious where Harry Reid's donor base is at since Cortez Masto is out, but I think they're grooming her to be the successor to Schumer as Senate Leader.

My theory is one reason why Cortez Masto dropped out is she prefers the Senate leadership path.  Choosing to head the DSCC is a glamour-less job but can pay dividends when you want to get into the Senate leadership and/or choice committee assignments.  Patty Murray took this path -- she headed the DSCC some time ago and is now in the Senate leadership.

Schumer, Durbin and Murray are all in their late 60s and early 70s, so there certainly is time for the 56 year-old Cortez Masto to climb the leadership ranks.

[Ogre Mage]

Duckworth is a very solid candidate on paper.  If there is a dark horse surprise, I think it is most likely to be her.  I believe she passes the "President on Day 1" test.  I don't consider her chances to be high because there is very little pressure from anywhere in the base for her to be the pick.  Part of this is name recognition.  She's up against much better known politicians with considerable fan bases that are applying heavy pressure on Team Biden.  Even Michelle Lujan Grisham -- hardly a juggernaut in the veepstakes -- seems to have more of a push behind her.  If Duckworth had a significant and/or longstanding connection to Biden she might overcome that, but she doesn't appear to have one.

With regards to Bass, my experience is names that get floated this late in the process are not ultimately chosen.  Duckworth has higher political stature and her name has been in the mix all this time.

[Ogre Mage]

https://www.nbcnews.com/feature/nbc-out/sen-tammy-baldwin-certainly-would-be-biden-s-running-mate-n1232275

Sen. Tammy Baldwin, D-Wis., confirmed that she would serve as Joe Biden's running mate if the presumptive Democratic presidential nominee were to ask her.

During Baldwin's appearance on ABC's "The View" Thursday, co-host Whoopi Goldberg noted that “rumors are flying" that Baldwin has "been interviewed at length" to be Biden's vice presidential pick.

“Would you take it if it were offered? Does it scare you at all?” Goldberg asked.

Baldwin was quick to definitively answer a question that has followed her for months: “If he were to ask me to be his running mate, I certainly would."

Is Tammy Baldwin being vetted?

Would she make a good running mate choice (just ignore the implications of her Senate seat, and focus on winning this election).

From what I read Baldwin has undergone significant vetting, but not to the intensive, advanced degree of the top-tier contenders.

Baldwin has several qualities which make her an attractive running mate.  To begin with, she can pass the "President on Day 1" test.  She has creds with both progressives and blue-collar workers (Baldwin is a favorite of labor).  She blazed the path as the first openly LGBTQ person elected to the U.S. Senate.  I believe her nomination would generate significant LGBTQ fundraising and excitement from that part of the base.  Last but not least, one cannot overlook the importance of Wisconsin in the electoral college.

That said, the Senate seat issue is a huge stumbling block.  Hillary Clinton did not select Sherrod Brown for related reasons.  In mostly white Wisconsin, Baldwin doesn't have much experience appealing to nonwhite voters and so far as I know doesn't have many political connections in those communities.  I don't think she would help much with nonwhite turnout.  Like Warren, Baldwin's views on health care are not simpatico with Biden's.

[Ogre Mage]

Yeah, about Karen Bass...

https://twitter.com/marcacaputo/status/1276848470352113670?s=21

I don’t think Biden needs a VP that’ll hurt him with Latinos.

I'm sure there is legitimate concern about this, but it looks like an attempt by Val Demings advocates in Florida to undercut a fellow House Democrat rival in the veepstakes.  Certainly Demings would never say something like that.

Hopefully Kamala has carefully read her Florida memo so we don't have messes like this in the future.  Remember girl, don't praise Latin-American communist dictators.  And you love Cuban food, lol.

[Ogre Mage]

It just occurred to me but isn't it a bit weird that nobody ever mentions that Harris will also be the first Asian-American on a presidential ticket?

She seemingly doesn't identify as mixed or Asian, and most Americans don't think Indians are Asians anyway.

Actually she does identify as a member of the APIA community.  This is from Harris's "Action for API Americans" on her (old) presidential campaign website:

As a member of the APIA community, Kamala understands firsthand the unique and wide-ranging concerns facing the rich tapestry of ethnicities, languages, and cultures that form this diverse community. Kamala knows our country is stronger for this diversity and will fight for equal opportunity, access to justice, and human rights for all API Americans.

How she'll do it ...

https://kamalaharris.org/policies/apia-action/

As for the fact this is not discussed, Asian-Americans have long been rendered invisible in the media.

This is a puff video piece with Kamala Harris and Mindy Kaling cooking masala dosa:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xz7rNOAFkgE

[Ogre Mage]

There is no running mate without risk.  Harris and Warren's baggage is more visible because they ran a presidential campaign and have been battle-tested in the national arena.  Good for them.  I consider that a plus.  Those who didn't take to the field need to be vetted even more carefully because their political baggage is not out there and we have far less of a sense how they will perform in the national spotlight.  We may not know what their dirty laundry is but the Biden campaign likely does.

Obama picked Biden in 2008 even though during Biden's first run for president as a hot young sensation in 1988 he had to drop out because of a plagiarism scandal.  Biden had been on the national stage for so long with the press scrutiny to match that Obama could have some confidence his $h!t was already known publicly.

[Ogre Mage]

What exactly is the argument against Duckworth at this point? Because I honestly can’t see one

Compared to Kamala Harris and Elizabeth Warren, Duckworth has a much lower profile/name ID.  She does not have the fundraising power they have.  She cannot draw media and crowds the way they can.

Among the major constituencies within the Democratic Party, I see considerably less of a push for Duckworth.  Votevets, a liberal veterans organization, is supporting her nomination but that isn't a major constituency in the party.  Biden has lots of people yelling "ELIZABETH ELIZABETH" and "KAMALA KAMALA"  in his ear.  There isn't that kind of pressure for Duckworth.

Duckworth seems aware of this and there has been a notable effort to raise her profile in the last month.  But Harris and Warren are way ahead in that game.

[Ogre Mage]

Biden does need to get some energy and excitement going.  Tammy might be able to but others are more proven in that area.

Duckworth has been making an effort to raise her profile so she is acting like it is important.

[Ogre Mage]

Biden does need to get some energy and excitement going.  Tammy might be able to but others are more proven in that area.

Duckworth has been making an effort to raise her profile so she is acting like it is important.

He's up nearly 10 points, he doesn't need an "exciting" pick who will lose him more older voters. Trump is the driver of turnout, not the Democrats.

Just like the base magically turned out in 2016.  I could just as easily argue we need to do better with youth and nonwhite turnout and that the elderly are so upset by the GOP's "reopen the economy even if old people die" insinuations that they will vote for Biden.

Is there data about Warren and/or Harris frightening older voters?

[Ogre Mage]

Biden does need to get some energy and excitement going.  Tammy might be able to but others are more proven in that area.

Duckworth has been making an effort to raise her profile so she is acting like it is important.

He's up nearly 10 points, he doesn't need an "exciting" pick who will lose him more older voters. Trump is the driver of turnout, not the Democrats.

Just like the base magically turned out in 2016.  I could just as easily argue we need to do better with youth and nonwhite turnout and that the elderly are so upset by the GOP's "reopen the economy even if old people die" insinuations that they will vote for Biden.

Is there data about Warren and/or Harris frightening older voters?

The only pick I think that could end up hurting is Rice. Baggage + unproven electablity.

I wonder if the intense vetting going on with Rice is more about Secretary of State than the vice-presidency.  Biden cannot publicly vet her for that right now, it would be counting chickens before they hatch.  But she'd be very well-qualified for that job and the faster a Biden Administration can hit the ground running the better.

[Ogre Mage]

Biden does need to get some energy and excitement going.  Tammy might be able to but others are more proven in that area.

Duckworth has been making an effort to raise her profile so she is acting like it is important.

He's up nearly 10 points, he doesn't need an "exciting" pick who will lose him more older voters. Trump is the driver of turnout, not the Democrats.

Just like the base magically turned out in 2016.  I could just as easily argue we need to do better with youth and nonwhite turnout and that the elderly are so upset by the GOP's "reopen the economy even if old people die" insinuations that they will vote for Biden.

Is there data about Warren and/or Harris frightening older voters?

No... if anything, Harris generally did best among the 65+ crowd in the primary polls. She also seems to poll well with them in all these VP polls.

Harris is who I believe Biden will choose.  She passes the "Day 1" test, has been vetted by running a national campaign and her selection would satisfy significant constituencies in the party.  I also don't think she would cause moderate suburban voters to run away screaming. 

And it would be nice to see a well-qualified black woman make it.  Harris and former U.S. Senator Carol Moseley Braun are the only black women in history who have had the traditional qualifications of a running mate.  So this is a pretty unique opportunity.

[Ogre Mage]

Being part of the urban woke left.
Having an overly combative personality that is not terribly likable.
A SF socialite with a story that is not even close to Duckworth or Demings in terms of appeal.

   

[Ogre Mage]

The Atlantic has a short profile on Duckworth's VP chances.  She's definitely been trying to raise her profile in the last month:

Tammy Duckworth is up for a big promotion: Joe Biden’s advisers are vetting her to be his running mate. In the meantime, she’s focused on protecting the promotion of another lieutenant colonel.

The senator from Illinois, who lost both her legs as a helicopter pilot in Iraq and was awarded the Purple Heart, has placed a hold—Senate-speak for preventing a vote—on hundreds of military promotions, she told me. She’ll maintain that hold until she gets written confirmation from President Donald Trump’s defense secretary, Mark Esper, that he won’t block the anticipated promotion of Alexander Vindman, the lieutenant colonel who testified in the House hearings that led to Trump’s impeachment.

Duckworth isn’t seen as a likely Biden pick at the moment. She’s not particularly well known, and doesn’t have some politicians’ natural smoothness in interviews and other appearances. That sort of camera readiness is more important than ever in a pandemic campaign, given how much of voters’ exposure to the vice-presidential nominee will come via TV appearances on Zoom.

Duckworth is working hard to boost her VP chances, helped along by events—starting on June 1, when law enforcement violently dispersed protesters so that Trump, escorted by Mark Milley, the chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, could march across Lafayette Square and be photographed holding up a Bible outside St. John’s Episcopal Church. She blasted that action as a “misuse” of the military.

Now Duckworth says that Trump is proving “incompetent” in his response to Russia reportedly paying the Taliban bounties to kill American soldiers ... she likely hopes these recent events might earn her a closer look as a potential vice president. Biden is clearly disturbed by the reports about the Russian bounties, accusing Trump of an “absolute dereliction of duty.”

https://www.theatlantic.com/politics/archive/2020/07/tammy-duckworth-biden-vice-president-running-mate/613753/

[Ogre Mage]

The media chatter tends to jump to whom he will pick: Kamala Harris, perhaps? Maybe Tammy Duckworth? 

Less remarked upon is that not all that long ago such a statement would have seemed implausible.

The first woman of color elected to Congress was Democratic Rep. Patsy Takemoto Mink of Hawaii, who was elected in 1964. New York Democrat Shirley Chisholm, the first Black woman to serve in the House, followed four years later. The first Latina was not elected until 1989, and it was only two years ago that the first Native American women won House seats. As of now, minority women make up about 9% of the House.

It was less than 30 years ago that the U.S. Senate saw its first female member of color: Illinois Democrat Carol Moseley Braun, who was also the chamber’s first African American woman.

Nowadays, there are just four women of color in the Senate, all of them Democrats. Two — California’s Harris, who is of Jamaican and Indian descent, and Duckworth of Illinois, who is Thai American — are in contention for the vice presidential slot.

And in the nation’s governors’ mansions, another traditional launchpad for vice presidential picks, women of color are even more scarce. While two women of color have been elected to governorships in the past — both Republicans — there is just one serving as governor today: Democrat Michelle Lujan Grisham of New Mexico, a Latina who is also on Biden’s list. There has never been a Black female governor.

Biden has said the lengthy process of vetting has just begun. In the meantime, people like Moseley Braun, who is herself hoping the pick is a woman of color, are savoring this moment.

“We have to really pat ourselves collectively on the back for the fact that we’ve come this far,” she said. “My mother’s generation could not even dream of a conversation of a Black woman vice president. It would have been like talking about going ice skating on the moon.”

https://www.latimes.com/politics/story/2020-07-01/biden-women-of-color-vice-president

[Ogre Mage]

Reporting in 2008 was that Obama's choice was down to Biden and Bayh.  Kaine was in the final 3 but was eliminated first because he was too inexperienced at that time and Obama was also too inexperienced.  So who would be an experienced hand reassuring to the middle of the country?  Either Biden or Bayh fit the bill on paper.  It's not clear what made the final decision but some things I've read suggested Biden came across better in the interview.

[Ogre Mage]

Harris has the same negative polarization trait as Warren. She’s very pugnacious and a great attorney but it’s counterproductive for what Biden needs. Duckworth just fits the moment for a landslide much better.

More Harris and Warren hating, eh?