Alaska

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

One thing I have noticed looking over the last five Presidential elections, the Democratic vote has not changed that much in raw numbers. In fact it has also declined since 2008, but only slightly.

The GOP number spiked in 2004 and again in 2008 for obvious reason, and has declined since but has remained stable at the same general number seen in 2000, 2012 and 2016.

   Donald J. Trump   Michael R. Pence   Republican   163,387   51.28%   3
   Hillary Clinton   Timothy Kaine   Democratic   116,454   36.55%   0

   Willard Mitt Romney   Paul Ryan   Republican   164,676   54.80%   3
   Barack H. Obama   Joseph R. Biden, Jr.   Democratic   122,640   40.81%   0

John S. McCain, III   Sarah Palin   Republican   193,841   59.42%   3
   Barack H. Obama   Joseph R. Biden, Jr.   Democratic   123,594   37.89%   0

George W. Bush   Richard Cheney   Republican   190,889   61.07%   3
   John Kerry   John Edwards   Democratic   111,025   35.52%   0

George W. Bush   Richard Cheney   Republican   167,398   58.62%   3
   Albert Gore Jr.   Joseph Lieberman   Democratic   79,004   27.67%   0
   Ralph Nader   Winona LaDuke   Green   28,747   10.07%   0

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Alaska actually slightly lost population in 2017, according to the state's estimates. Of the big boroughs/municipalities, only Anchorage-exurban Mat-Su grew. That's the Republican heartland of Alaska. Even Anchorage lost population, and is under 300,000 residents after going above that mark mid-decade.

I don't think Alaskan trends are as good for the Democrats as you think, particularly when you factor in that Alaskan Natives sometimes vote for the incumbent, not necessarily the Democrat.

And no, Alaska isn't one of the more unpredictable states. It's been carried by a Republican at the presidential level every year but the Johnson landslide of 1964.

After looking at the numbers I agree. Now one big factor is who is driving that Mat-su growth and is it latte liberals from Seattle?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

I'm not really seeing how one can be bullish for Dems in Alaska and bearish for Dems in MT at the same time?

BTW, can someone explain the frequency of bipartisan coalition control in the AK state legislature?

It stems from fractures in the AK GOP. The AK GOP establishment is very much tied to big oil and special interests. More reform minded and fiscally conservative types are hostile to that relationship. This dynamic led to Governor Palin and to Governor Walker.

Also, there is the long history of maverick behavior and the independent streak, not to mention that independents are the largest affiliation in the state last I checked.