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  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  Presidential Election Trends (Moderator: VirginiŠ)
  Alaska
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Question: Does it trend D in 2020?
#1
Yes
 
#2
No
 
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Total Voters: 49

Author Topic: Alaska  (Read 1319 times)
ERM64man
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« on: January 08, 2018, 04:40:46 pm »

Does Alaska trend D in 2020?
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MB
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« Reply #1 on: January 08, 2018, 09:23:33 pm »

Yes, I wouldn't be shocked if a Democrat wins it outright. Alaska's one of the more unpredictable states.
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TML
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« Reply #2 on: January 08, 2018, 09:49:26 pm »

Yes, I wouldn't be shocked if a Democrat wins it outright. Alaska's one of the more unpredictable states.

It appears that the main key to Alaska being a lock for Republicans is that they usually win the city of Anchorage proper. Democrats do well in midtown and downtown, but their margins there aren't very overwhelming compared to other major cities such as NYC, LA, or Chicago, so Republican margins in South Anchorage and elsewhere in the city are more than enough for them to win the city overall. If a future Democratic candidate can flip Anchorage overall, he or she will probably win Alaska; otherwise, Alaska will likely remain a lock for Republicans.
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#ByeDon2020
semocrat08
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« Reply #3 on: January 10, 2018, 12:53:43 pm »

Yes, I wouldn't be shocked if a Democrat wins it outright. Alaska's one of the more unpredictable states.

It appears that the main key to Alaska being a lock for Republicans is that they usually win the city of Anchorage proper. Democrats do well in midtown and downtown, but their margins there aren't very overwhelming compared to other major cities such as NYC, LA, or Chicago, so Republican margins in South Anchorage and elsewhere in the city are more than enough for them to win the city overall. If a future Democratic candidate can flip Anchorage overall, he or she will probably win Alaska; otherwise, Alaska will likely remain a lock for Republicans.

Aren't the "suburbs" of Alaska what pads the margins for Republicans? I know Republicans win Anchorage but IIRC the "burbs" (Palin's homestead) vote like the WOW counties in Wisconsin? I think Alaska is one of the few states where Republicans win urban areas and Democrats win rural areas, the latter being thanks to Alaskan Natives, of course.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #4 on: January 10, 2018, 11:29:18 pm »

One thing I have noticed looking over the last five Presidential elections, the Democratic vote has not changed that much in raw numbers. In fact it has also declined since 2008, but only slightly.

The GOP number spiked in 2004 and again in 2008 for obvious reason, and has declined since but has remained stable at the same general number seen in 2000, 2012 and 2016.

   Donald J. Trump   Michael R. Pence   Republican   163,387   51.28%   3
   Hillary Clinton   Timothy Kaine   Democratic   116,454   36.55%   0

   Willard Mitt Romney   Paul Ryan   Republican   164,676   54.80%   3
   Barack H. Obama   Joseph R. Biden, Jr.   Democratic   122,640   40.81%   0

John S. McCain, III   Sarah Palin   Republican   193,841   59.42%   3
   Barack H. Obama   Joseph R. Biden, Jr.   Democratic   123,594   37.89%   0

George W. Bush   Richard Cheney   Republican   190,889   61.07%   3
   John Kerry   John Edwards   Democratic   111,025   35.52%   0

George W. Bush   Richard Cheney   Republican   167,398   58.62%   3
   Albert Gore Jr.   Joseph Lieberman   Democratic   79,004   27.67%   0
   Ralph Nader   Winona LaDuke   Green   28,747   10.07%   0
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TML
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« Reply #5 on: January 11, 2018, 12:37:29 am »

Yes, I wouldn't be shocked if a Democrat wins it outright. Alaska's one of the more unpredictable states.

It appears that the main key to Alaska being a lock for Republicans is that they usually win the city of Anchorage proper. Democrats do well in midtown and downtown, but their margins there aren't very overwhelming compared to other major cities such as NYC, LA, or Chicago, so Republican margins in South Anchorage and elsewhere in the city are more than enough for them to win the city overall. If a future Democratic candidate can flip Anchorage overall, he or she will probably win Alaska; otherwise, Alaska will likely remain a lock for Republicans.

Aren't the "suburbs" of Alaska what pads the margins for Republicans? I know Republicans win Anchorage but IIRC the "burbs" (Palin's homestead) vote like the WOW counties in Wisconsin? I think Alaska is one of the few states where Republicans win urban areas and Democrats win rural areas, the latter being thanks to Alaskan Natives, of course.

Anchorage itself comprises about 40% of Alaska's total votes. Here, Democrats usually win the "core" urban areas, while Republicans win the "outer" urban areas.
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NOVA Green
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« Reply #6 on: January 12, 2018, 05:39:54 am »

Yes, I wouldn't be shocked if a Democrat wins it outright. Alaska's one of the more unpredictable states.

It appears that the main key to Alaska being a lock for Republicans is that they usually win the city of Anchorage proper. Democrats do well in midtown and downtown, but their margins there aren't very overwhelming compared to other major cities such as NYC, LA, or Chicago, so Republican margins in South Anchorage and elsewhere in the city are more than enough for them to win the city overall. If a future Democratic candidate can flip Anchorage overall, he or she will probably win Alaska; otherwise, Alaska will likely remain a lock for Republicans.

Aren't the "suburbs" of Alaska what pads the margins for Republicans? I know Republicans win Anchorage but IIRC the "burbs" (Palin's homestead) vote like the WOW counties in Wisconsin? I think Alaska is one of the few states where Republicans win urban areas and Democrats win rural areas, the latter being thanks to Alaskan Natives, of course.

Anchorage itself comprises about 40% of Alaska's total votes. Here, Democrats usually win the "core" urban areas, while Republicans win the "outer" urban areas.

TML knows his stuff here,,,,

Although I haven't extensively dissect the precinct level results from Alaska in '16, the City of Anchorage, Alaska is "Ground Zero" in any potential Democratic statewide win....

So what will it take for a Dem Pres candidate to win the City, and if so, by what margins???

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cinyc
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« Reply #7 on: January 12, 2018, 11:24:00 am »

Alaska actually slightly lost population in 2017, according to the state's estimates. Of the big boroughs/municipalities, only Anchorage-exurban Mat-Su grew. That's the Republican heartland of Alaska. Even Anchorage lost population, and is under 300,000 residents after going above that mark mid-decade.

I don't think Alaskan trends are as good for the Democrats as you think, particularly when you factor in that Alaskan Natives sometimes vote for the incumbent, not necessarily the Democrat.

And no, Alaska isn't one of the more unpredictable states. It's been carried by a Republican at the presidential level every year but the Johnson landslide of 1964.
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TML
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« Reply #8 on: January 12, 2018, 11:57:19 pm »

Yes, I wouldn't be shocked if a Democrat wins it outright. Alaska's one of the more unpredictable states.

It appears that the main key to Alaska being a lock for Republicans is that they usually win the city of Anchorage proper. Democrats do well in midtown and downtown, but their margins there aren't very overwhelming compared to other major cities such as NYC, LA, or Chicago, so Republican margins in South Anchorage and elsewhere in the city are more than enough for them to win the city overall. If a future Democratic candidate can flip Anchorage overall, he or she will probably win Alaska; otherwise, Alaska will likely remain a lock for Republicans.

Aren't the "suburbs" of Alaska what pads the margins for Republicans? I know Republicans win Anchorage but IIRC the "burbs" (Palin's homestead) vote like the WOW counties in Wisconsin? I think Alaska is one of the few states where Republicans win urban areas and Democrats win rural areas, the latter being thanks to Alaskan Natives, of course.

Anchorage itself comprises about 40% of Alaska's total votes. Here, Democrats usually win the "core" urban areas, while Republicans win the "outer" urban areas.

TML knows his stuff here,,,,

Although I haven't extensively dissect the precinct level results from Alaska in '16, the City of Anchorage, Alaska is "Ground Zero" in any potential Democratic statewide win....

So what will it take for a Dem Pres candidate to win the City, and if so, by what margins???



In places like NYC, Chicago, and LA, Democrats usually win 80+% of the vote in the downtown areas and other neighborhoods close to the core. That translates to winning not only the city itself, but also the entire county as well as nearby suburban counties.

On the other hand, Democratic winning margins in downtown and midtown Anchorage are much more modest, which allows Republicans to win the outer parts of Anchorage as well as its suburbs.

Back in 2008, Begich won the city of Anchorage (and thus the statewide race overall) thanks to the legal baggage which Stevens was carrying at the time. Other than that, I'm not sure what else it would take for Democrats to win Anchorage overall.
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #9 on: January 13, 2018, 12:00:17 am »

Alaska actually slightly lost population in 2017, according to the state's estimates. Of the big boroughs/municipalities, only Anchorage-exurban Mat-Su grew. That's the Republican heartland of Alaska. Even Anchorage lost population, and is under 300,000 residents after going above that mark mid-decade.

I don't think Alaskan trends are as good for the Democrats as you think, particularly when you factor in that Alaskan Natives sometimes vote for the incumbent, not necessarily the Democrat.

And no, Alaska isn't one of the more unpredictable states. It's been carried by a Republican at the presidential level every year but the Johnson landslide of 1964.

After looking at the numbers I agree. Now one big factor is who is driving that Mat-su growth and is it latte liberals from Seattle?
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cinyc
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« Reply #10 on: January 13, 2018, 08:23:38 pm »

After looking at the numbers I agree. Now one big factor is who is driving that Mat-su growth and is it latte liberals from Seattle?

I donít think so. Itís more likely typical exurban growth out of Anchorage by people looking for cheaper housing.
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Skill and Chance
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« Reply #11 on: January 14, 2018, 11:54:30 am »
« Edited: January 14, 2018, 11:56:43 am by Skill and Chance »

I'm not really seeing how one can be bullish for Dems in Alaska and bearish for Dems in MT at the same time?

BTW, can someone explain the frequency of bipartisan coalition control in the AK state legislature?
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Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee
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« Reply #12 on: January 15, 2018, 02:05:15 am »

I'm not really seeing how one can be bullish for Dems in Alaska and bearish for Dems in MT at the same time?

BTW, can someone explain the frequency of bipartisan coalition control in the AK state legislature?

It stems from fractures in the AK GOP. The AK GOP establishment is very much tied to big oil and special interests. More reform minded and fiscally conservative types are hostile to that relationship. This dynamic led to Governor Palin and to Governor Walker.

Also, there is the long history of maverick behavior and the independent streak, not to mention that independents are the largest affiliation in the state last I checked.
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Misseees
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« Reply #13 on: February 07, 2018, 01:04:50 pm »

I think Alaska will trend Democratic, but will still be won by Trump.
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