Election Night Timelines Project

[S019]

2016: Hillary Clinton v Sarah Palin

Past Elections:

2000: Al Gore/Joe Lieberman v George Bush/Dick Cheney



2004: Al Gore/Joe Lieberman (inc.) v George Allen/Tom Ridge



2008: John Kerry/John Edwards v John McCain/Sarah Palin



2012: John McCain/Sarah Palin (inc.) v Barack Obama/Evan Bayh



2016: Sarah Palin/Dean Heller v Hillary Clinton/Mark Warner



Wolf Blitzer: This long campaign draws to a close as both candidates make their closing remarks to voters. Senator Clinton was in Richmond today, looking to flip Virginia for the first time since 1964, meanwhile Vice President Palin made her last stop in St. Petersburg, in the critical state of Florida, which has voted for the winner in every election since it voted for George H.W. Bush in 1992. Let's now head over to John King and the Magic Wall. Well, John not only the White House is up for grabs today, but the Senate is as well, and the gridlock between Democrats and President McCain over the past two years shows how important Congressional control can be for the President

John King: Indeed, glad you brought that up Wolf, let's indeed start with the Battle for the Senate. This is the current Senate map:



EDIT: The Democrats actually have a 53-47 majority because of the Republican Senator in NH, Kelly Ayotte, who won in 2010

As you can see, Democrats are very over extended on this map, holding seats in lots of solid red states such as South Dakota, Kentucky, Indiana, and Alaska. All four independents caucus with them, so the Democrats currently have a 53-47 majority, but a lot of these vulnerable seats are up tonight, so let's take a look at the seats up tonight.



The Republicans need four seats to take control, even if they lose the presidency and with this map, it looks very doable, Senators Dorgan in North Dakota and Daschle in South Dakota, who is also the Majority Leader, and has been the face of the anti-McCain opposition in the Senate for the last 8 years are all but done, even Democratic strategists have conceded those races. Senators Mongiardo in Kentucky and Senator Bayh in Indiana, who ran for Vice President in 2012 also look like they're in big trouble. That gets you to four, even if you miss one, then you can look at Senator Knowles, who's in the Vice President's home state of Alaska or Senator Napolitano in the President's home state of Arizona, Senator Marshall in North Carolina, which leans red. Then of course, the Democrats have several seats to defend in tossup states, such as Senator Castor in Florida or Senator Reid in Nevada or Senator Sestak in Pennsylvania. The path for the Democrats to hold Senate control simply looks daunting and if Senator Clinton does win the presidency, this is simply something she'll need to be content with.

We're just going to take a look at some of these pre-election polls in these seats to show the depth of the Democrats' problem. In North Dakota, Senator Dorgan trails former Governor Hoeven, who passed on a run in 2010, by a margin of 60-31 in the latest NBC News/Marist poll, in South Dakota, Senator Daschle trails Representative Noem by a margin of 63-27 in the latest CNN poll, both of these results would give competition to the worst Senate losses in history. Senator Bayh trails Governor Daniels by a margin of 53-44 in the latest CNN poll. In Florida, Senator Castor leads Representative Diaz-Balart by just two points, 48-46 in the latest Quinnipiac poll.

Wolf Blitzer: John, we'll look at the presidential map in just a second, but first we have some exit polls being released, and David Chalian will discuss them

David Chalian: Some interesting findings from the exit polls today, by a margin of 62-38, Americans say that they approve of President McCain, numbers that should be good for the Vice President, however by a margin of 57-43, Americans say that they believe that Vice President Palin's values are not consistent with the values of President McCain. Americans are split on whether they want another term of President McCain or a new direction, with 47 percent of Americans wanting another term of President McCain and 43 percent wanting a new direction. American's are also divided on which candidate represents a continuation of President McCain, with 43 percent saying the Vice President, and notably 20 percent saying Senator Clinton and 37 percent saying neither. It's been a repeated pattern that we've seen over and over again that the Vice President simply cannot capitalize on the President's popularity. Another interesting result is this, when we asked if Americans believed if a candidate was too extreme to be President, 43% of Americans believed that Vice President Palin was too extreme compared to just 25% of Americans believing that Senator Clinton was too extreme. The Vice President simply cannot run away from her reputation as an extremist from back when she was picked in 2008 and it is one of the reasons that an election that otherwise wouldn't be close, with a booming economy and popular president, has been a real nail-biter all along.

Wolf Blitzer: Thank you David Chalian and now back to the Magic Wall with John King

John King: So at the moment, before any votes are counted, we believe this is where the race for the White House stands:



233 Electoral votes for Senator Clinton and 225 votes for Senator Palin

Now let's look at some of the polling averages or our poll of polls. In Wisconsin, Senator Clinton leads the poll of polls by a margin of 51-45 and the general consensus is that if Senator Clinton loses Wisconsin, she's already lost the presidency, we had been quite close to moving Wisconsin to leaning Clinton, but we'll leave it in the tossup column for now, but if we give it to Senator Clinton that brings her to 243. Now let's look at Virginia, a state that Senator Clinton has campaigned aggressively in, the state that her running mate is a two-term Senator from, in fact Senator Warner's 2008 Senate win was one of only two Democratic Senate gains in the 2008 Republican megatsunami. In fact, let's go back to four years ago, Senator Obama lost the state by 3 points, 51-48, compare that to 2008, where then-Senator McCain won it by 9 pts over John Kerry, 53-44. In fact, let's zoom in on Northern Virginia, this is Loudoun County, an affluent, growing suburban county just outside of the Capital Beltway. McCain won it by 11 pts in 2008, 54-43, however 4 years later, that margin was just a point, 50-49. Hillary Clinton has campaigned aggressively all over Virginia, but this is a place to watch, if this comes in and Sarah Palin is losing here, particularly if it's more than 2-3 pts, then Senator Clinton will have reason to be very happy. She leads the poll of polls here in Virginia, by a margin of 50-47. If she gets Virginia, it gets her to 256, 14 electoral votes shy of the White House. So, how does she get there? One option is Florida, the premier bellwether, with its 29 electoral votes, voting for the winner every election since 1992, in the poll of polls, it's a Clinton lead but a narrow one at 49-47. Another option for Senator Clinton is Colorado, another formerly ruby red state like Virginia that has swung towards Democrats in recent years, in the poll of polls, both candidates are tied at 48. Lastly, let's look at Nevada, the home state of Vice President Palin's running mate, Senator Heller, the Vice President leads the poll of polls by a margin of 51-47, we considered moving Nevada to lean Republican, however the Democrats have a potent vote turnout operation in Nevada, headed by Senator Reid, who is running for re-election in what is sure to be a closely contested contest. Indeed if Senator Clinton can pull of the shocker and hold Nevada and flip Colorado, she can win the White House even without winning Florida. However, Florida really has this must win feel for both candidates, the only difference is Senator Clinton has a feasible, if difficult, path without Florida, Vice President Palin really doesn't have much of a path without Florida.

Wolf Blitzer: Thank you John, and we now have 6:00 poll closings at the top of the hour in Indiana and Kentucky, both expected to be safe Palin states, but both having hotly contested Senate races, which could tell us more about the battle for the Senate.

[S019]

6:00 PM poll closings

Wolf Blitzer: It is now 6:00 PM and polls have closed in most of Indiana and the eastern part of Kentucky. Let's now head over to John King on the Magic Wall.

John King: So, as expected Sarah Palin is leading in both of these states, and I fully expect that we'll be able to call them in an hour. However, there are two key Senate races in these states, Senator Evan Bayh of Indiana, part of a political dynasty in the state and the 2012 Democratic Vice Presidential Nominee is fighting for his political life against former Governor Mitch Daniels and in Kentucky, Senator Dan Mongiardo is facing Representative James Comer. Let's start with Kentucky and Rep Comer's base is in the west of the state which hasn't closed yet, but Senator Mongiardo's base in his past two elections was in the east and that has closed, notably coal country as well as the urban centers of Lexington and Louisville. Let's look at Breathlitt County, this is classic coal country, around 14,000 people and Sarah Palin is going to romp here. The question is how much can Senator Mongiardo outrun Senator Clinton and will it be enough? Well right now, Breathlitt County is around 60% in and it shows a narrow lead for Representative Comer. Senator Mongiardo won around 70% of the vote here in 2004 and around 60% in 2010, right now he's around 46-47%, that doesn't look like it's going to be anywhere near enough. Let's move over to Elliott County, this is a pretty Democratic county even federally and Democrats have won it in every election since its formation. Senator Mongiardo got around 70% here in 2004 and around the same in 2010, this time he's down to around 64-65%, while that doesn't seem like much of a fall and is consistent with federal democratic performances in the county, at least until the massive swing against Barack Obama in 2012, who only won the county with 55%, they aren't numbers consistent with a win in Kentucky. If nothing changes, this is looking like a Republican gain. Also let's look at Elliott County presidentially, it looks like Sarah Palin is ahead with around 56% of the vote, the trend that we saw in 2012 of massive swings towards Republicans in coal country Kentucky seems to be continuing and it is greatly hurting Senator Mongiardo's chances of re-election. Now let's move up to Indiana, much of the polls in the state have closed. It should be noted that Gary, a major Democratic vote center, is part of what has yet to close, so perhaps some hope for Democrats in the state. With around 50% in, Governor Daniels is leading by a margin of around 52-44. Let's look at Marion County, this is Indianapolis and some of its more inner suburbs. This is a reliably Democratic County and not much is expected to change there, but the margins here will make a difference. In 2004 and 2010, Senator Bayh coasted to re-election, winning counties all across the state and won around 65% of the vote here both times. The general consensus is that with his rural support across the state that he enjoyed in 2004 and 2010 expected to collapse, he needs a much better percentage out of Indianapolis, instead we're seeing a slight decline to around 62%. An example of this is Clay County, a rural county where Evan Bayh won around 65% of the vote in 2004, and around 60% in 2010, that seems to have collapsed to around 43% of the vote tonight. We haven't learned much new at this early stage, we expected these states to go for the Vice President and we expected collapsing rural margins to give these Democratic senators an uphill re-election battle, it seems that both of those statements are remaining true based off of the data that we have so far.

Presidential map so far (light shades indicate a lead)


Senate map so far (light shades indicate a lead)

33 Democrats and 33 Republicans not up for election

[S019]

7:00 PM poll closings

Wolf Blitzer: It is now 7:00 PM on the East Coast and polls are closing in several states including the key state of Virginia with its 13 electoral votes

We can project that Sarah Palin will win South Carolina and its 9 electoral votes, we can project that Sarah Palin will win Indiana, with its 11 electoral votes, we can project that Sarah Palin will win Kentucky, with its 8 electoral votes. We can project that Hillary Clinton will win Vermont with its 3 electoral votes. It is too close to call in Virginia, this means we need to wait for more votes to come in. It is too early to call in Georgia, which means we do not have enough data to make a projection. Let's look at where the race for the White House stands right now:



We have 28 electoral votes for Sarah Palin and 3 for Hillary Clinton. You need 270 electoral votes to win the presidency

In the race for the Senate we can make some calls, Senator Leahy will win re-election in the state of Vermont, Senator Leahy will win Vermont. We can also call that Senator Scott will win in South Carolina and that Senator Isakson will win in Georgia, but this is a big one we can project, this is a major projection, Senator Daniel Mongiardo of Kentucky will lose his seat to Representative James Comer, this is a Republican gain, and the first one of the night, and it is too close to call in Indiana, where Senator Bayh is in a very competitive race. So the battle for the Senate currently stands at 36 Republicans and 34 Democrats, you need 50 seats to win the Senate, the Republicans need to pick up 3 if they win the White House and 4 if they lose the White House, and they've already picked up one.



Now let's get a key race alert

In Virginia, it is very early and the rural counties report first, with around 5% in, Sarah Palin with a large lead

5% in
Palin (R) : 57%
Clinton (D) : 42%

Georgia is too early to call, we do not have enough data from there

Now in the battle for the Senate, with around 60% in, Senator Bayh has narrowed the gap a bit here in Indiana, but Governor Daniels still leads

60%
Daniels (R): 52%
Bayh (D) : 47%

Let's now go the Magic Wall, and John King, Senator Bayh has narrowed this gap quite a bit, can you explain why?

King: Well if we go back to this map, you see this giant blue county in the northwest corner of the state, this is Lake County, home of Gary, it just closed and it's already around 50% in and look at that margin 65-35 for Senator Bayh. In all likelihood, it's not going to be enough, and I'd be very surprised if Governor Daniels doesn't win this race, but it looks like it'll be close-ish in the end and especially if the Democratic loss is narrow, Democrats are going to face criticism for spending so much in the Dakotas to try to save leadership members and ignoring races like this one.

7:30 PM poll closings

Wolf Blitzer: It is now 7:30 on the East Coast and polls are closing in three states, including the swing state of Ohio

It is too close to call in Ohio, too close to call in Ohio, it is also too close to call in North Carolina, too close to call in North Carolina, we can project that Sarah Palin will win West Virginia and it's 5 electoral votes, giving her 33 electoral votes to 3 for Hillary Clinton, you need 270 votes to win the White House



Now in the battle for the Senate, we can project that Senator Rob Portman of Ohio will win re-election, this is a Republican hold, it is too close to call in North Carolina where Senator Elaine Marshall is facing Governor Pat McCrory. The Republicans now with 37 seats and the Democrats with 34, you need 50 seats to win control of the Senate.



8:00 PM poll closings

It is now 8:00 PM on the east coast, and polls are closing in many states, including the swing states of Florida and New Hampshire, and we have several projections to make

First, we can project that Sarah Palin will win the state of Oklahoma, and it's 7 electoral votes, we can project that Sarah Palin will in Missouri and its 10 electoral votes, we can project that Sarah Palin will win Mississippi and its 6 electoral votes, we can project that Sarah Palin will win Alabama and its 9 electoral votes, we can project that Sarah Palin will win Tennessee and its 10 electoral votes. We can project that Hillary Clinton will win win Illinois and its 10 electoral votes, we can project that Hillary Clinton will win the District of Columbia and its 3 electoral votes, we can project that Hillary Clinton will win Maryland and its 10 electoral votes, we can project that Hillary Clinton will win Delaware and its 3 electoral votes, we can project that Hillary Clinton will win New Jersey and its 14 electoral votes, we can project that Hillary Clinton will win Connecticut and its 7 electoral votes, we can project that Hillary Clinton will win Rhode Island and its 4 electoral votes, we can project that Hillary Clinton will win Massachusetts and its 11 electoral votes, we can project that Hillary Clinton will win 1 of the 4 electoral votes from Maine, Maine allocates its electoral votes by congressional district. It is too close to call in Pennsylvania, too close to call in Florida, too close to call in New Hampshire, too close to call one vote in Maine, too early to call the state of Maine, and we are moving Georgia from too early to call to too close to call. That gives us 76 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 76 for Sarah Palin, you need 270 to win the White House.



In the battle for the Senate, we can project that Senator Lanksford will win re-election in the state of Oklahoma, this is a Republican hold, we can project that Senator Sessions will win re-election in Alabama, this is a Republican hold. We can project that Senator Obama, the 2012 Democratic nominee for President, will win re-election to his seat in Illinois. We can project that Chris Van Hollen, the Democrat will hold the Senate seat in Maryland and we can project that Senator Chris Dodd will hold his seat in Connecticut for the Democrats. It is too close to call in Missouri, where Senator Blunt is facing a tough challenge from Secretary of State Jason Kander. It is too close to call in Florida, where Senator Castor is facing a tough challenge from Representative Diaz-Balart. It is too close to call in Pennsylvania, where Senator Sestak is facing a tough challenge from Representative Fitzpatrick. It is too close to call in New Hampshire, where Senator Ayotte is facing a very tough challenge from Governor Maggie Hassan, in one of only a handful of Republican held seats considered to be competitive. That gives us 39 seats for the Republicans and 37 seats for the Democrats



8:15 PM

We can make some projections, Sarah Palin will win the state of Georgia and its 16 electoral votes. This gives us 92 electoral votes for Sarah Palin and 76 for Hillary Clinton. ]



We can also make some projections for the Senate, Governor Mitch Daniels of Indiana will defeat Democratic senator Evan Bayh, who is part of a political dynasty in the state, giving the Republicans their 2nd pickup of the night, they need 3 to win the Senate, if they win the presidency and 4, if they don't win the presidency. This gives us 40 Senate seats for the Republicans and 37 for the Democrats



8:30 PM

It is now 8:30 PM and polls have closed in the state of Arkansas

We can call the state of Arkansas, and its 6 electoral votes for Sarah Palin, Hillary Clinton once called this state home, but Arkansas goes to Sarah Palin. This gives us 98 electoral votes for Sarah Palin and 76 for Hillary Clinton



We can also make some projections for the Senate

Senator John Boozman will win Arkansas, this is a Republican hold, and brings the Republicans to 41 seats, compared to 37 for the Democrats

[S019]

8:50 PM

We can make some major projections. Pennsylvania, and its 20 electoral votes will go to Hillary Clinton, this is a state that the Palin campaign hoped to make competitive, but they were unsuccessful, also North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes will go to Sarah Palin. We can also project that 3 of Maine's 4 electoral votes go to Hillary Clinton. That gives us 98 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 113 for Sarah Palin.



Now, let's head over to the panel with Dana Bash and Jake Tapper, and it surely must be discouraging for the Palin campaign to have Pennsylvania called less than an hour after polls close there.

Bash: Yes, it absolutely is, this was a lean Democratic state and that of course means no one expected Sarah Palin to win it, but she did have a chance there, even if it was a small one. Ultimately this early call means she isn't doing too well in the Midwest, we have Ohio at Lean R and it still hasn't been called, and you of course have two tossups in the Midwest in Iowa and Wisconsin.

Tapper: Ultimately, this was a state that you didn't need to have, but you wanted to have, because going into the election, you knew that really you needed both Virginia and Florida realistically, and you were trailing in both, Pennsylvania would've given you a bit more wiggle room, and if you lost both you'd still have a chance


Wolf Blitzer: Let's now head over to the Magic Wall and John King this call came earlier than many expected, and it is in a way our first swing state call of the night, what does this mean for both candidates going ahead.

King: Well, I'm glad you asked that and let's just look at this map, you see a lot of blue here in the Southeast corner of the state, this is Philadelphia and its suburbs. Let's come down here, this is Chester County, this was red four years ago, McCain beat Obama here by around 4 pts, 52-48, today it's blue, Clinton leading here by around 6 pts, 52-46. Let's come over here to Bucks County, this one is always competitive, 4 years ago, Obama won but narrowly, 50-47, today Clinton's winning narrowly as well, but that margin slightly larger, 51-46. The reason the Palin campaign should be concerned is that this southeast corner of the state, it's a lot like the northern part of Virginia, where of course Hillary Clinton campaigned heavily, and if the suburbs in Virginia have swings like this, well then Sarah Palin is going to need Florida and Colorado, and one of Nevada or New Hampshire, the issue with that is that Colorado also has lots of places that look like southeast Pennsylvania and northern Virginia.

If you're Hillary Clinton, you start to feel cautiously optimistic, especially with the results coming in in Florida, right now, actually let's jump down to Florida, this counts quick. 75% in already, Hillary Clinton with a narrow lead of around 0.5 pts, but let's come down here to the Gold Coast, this is Miami-Dade, Broward, Palm Beach, this is the Democratic base in the state, you can see around 65% counted in Miami-Date, so a good chunk of votes left here, around 60% counted in Broward, so a good chunk left here, around 80% counted in Palm Beach, so not much left here, but again you're up and any amount of vote helps at this point.

Wolf Blitzer: A win for Hillary Clinton in Florida would of course significantly reduce Sarah Palin's path, there's also a competitive Senate race in Florida, isn't there John?

King: Yes, there is, and let's switch maps one second. Senator Castor is facing Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart from Miami, her lead is larger than Clinton's around 1 pt, but you can see this margin in Miami-Dade, it is a bit worse for her, Clinton led here 60-40, Senator Castor leads here 55-45, she's making up for it in the rest of the state, for instance doing better in the I-4 corridor and even in the Republican panhandle, but honestly Rep. Diaz-Balart's path looks better than Palin's path here in the Sunshine State, but neither look good at the moment.

Wolf Blitzer: It would indeed be a huge relief for the Democrats to hold Florida, given their Senate map, can we have a look at Pennsylvania and North Carolina for the Senate, we already called North Carolina presidentially, but have yet to do so for the Senate

King: Yes, and let's start with North Carolina, if we alternate back and forth between the two maps you don't see much difference in the counties that Senator Clinton and Senator Marshall won, Clinton with around 47% of the vote, Senator Marshall with around 50%, and Senator Marshall, before she was a Senator, she was a Secretary of State, she has a history of outperforming here and she might just pull it off again. Why is she doing it, well if we switch to this map comparing the vote percentages they're getting you see a significant over performance here in the northern part of the state and also here in the southern part of the state, just east of Charlotte, lots of ancestral Democrats in both of these parts who've voted for Senator Marshall for many years and she's someone that they know and evidently trust and like.

Wolf Blitzer: Well one thing we're seeing tonight is many of these Democratic senators they're outrunning Hillary Clinton, though the ones that went down so far, were in too red states for it to matter.

King: Yes, let's actually jump back to Kentucky, we called both of these races at the same time, Sarah Palin won the state by a margin of 61-35, but James Comer won his Senate race by a much less margin, 56-44, so around a 6-7 pt overperformance by Senator Mongiardo, obviously not going to be enough in a state like Kentucky or Indiana or South Dakota, but in a state like North Carolina, where Hillary Clinton is currently losing by 6 points, it is enough to make a difference. So, we could be watching North Carolina for a long time

Wolf Blitzer: hold on John, it's time for the 9 PM poll closings

9:00 PM poll closings

Wolf Blitzer: It is now 9:00 PM on the East Coast and polls will close in several states including the swing states of Wisconsin and Colorado as well as big prizes like New York and Texas

We can project that Sarah Palin will win the state of Texas and its 38 electoral votes, Sarah Palin will win Kansas and its 6 electoral votes, Sarah Palin will win 4 of Nebraska's 5 electoral votes, like Maine, Nebraska allocates its votes by district, Sarah Palin will win South Dakota and its 3 electoral votes, Sarah Palin will win North Dakota and its 3 electoral votes, Sarah Palin will win Wyoming and its 3 electoral votes, Sarah Palin will win Louisiana and its 8 electoral votes. We can project that Hillary Clinton will win New Mexico and its 5 electoral votes, Hillary Clinton will win Minnesota and its 10 electoral votes, Hillary Clinton will win Michigan and its 16 electoral votes, and Hillary Clinton will win New York and its 29 electoral votes, too close to call in Wisconsin, too close to call in Colorado, too close to call in Arizona. We can also make two more projections, Sarah Palin will win Ohio and its 18 electoral votes, once a bellwether, Ohio has not voted Democratic since 1996 and Hillary Clinton will win all 4 of Maine's electoral votes. That gives us 196 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 159 for Sarah Palin, you need 270 electoral votes to win the White House



We can also make some calls in the battle for the Senate, Senator Jerry Moran will win in Kansas, this is a Republican hold. Senator Chuck Schumer wins his seat again in New York for the Democrats. We also have two major projections, Senator Tom Daschle, the Senate Majority Leader, who represented South Dakota for 30 years, including 22 as Democratic floor leader, making him the longest serving floor leader in history, will lose his seat in South Dakota to Representative Kristi Noem, this is a Republican gain, Tom Daschle becomes the first Majority Leader to lose re-election since 1952. His neighbor in North Dakota, Byron Dorgan, a former member of Democratic leadership, who served in the Senate for over 20 years, will be defeated by former Governor, John Hoeven, this is another gain for the Republicans. That brings us to a total of four Senate gains for the Republicans, enough to take the Senate, if they don't lose any seats. We can also project that Senator Sestak in Pennsylvania will win re-election defeating Representative Mike Fitzpatrick. It is too early to call in Louisiana, too close to call in Colorado, too close to call in Arizona, and too close to call in Wisconsin This give us 44 Senate seats for the Republicans, compared to 39 for the Democrats.

 

Wolf Blitzer: let's head over to the magic wall and John King where do things stand realistically, right now, if we allocated the safe states where would be

John King: well it's great you asked that question, this is our pre-election map



We haven't called any tossups yet, and no real surprises so far. Of course, we now have data for several of these swing states. Let's actual go to Virginia right now. As you can see Northern Virginia starting to come in, Sarah Palin with around a 5 point lead right now, we'll see where that is in an hour or two as the northern part of the state counts very slowly. We were just in Florida, around 10 minutes ago, let's check back there and not much has changed, realistically, based on the data that we have, Sarah Palin is going to need what's left of the panhandle to be abnormally friendly to win Florida, so let's just assume we give Florida to Hillary Clinton:



That gets her to 266, Palin needs to run the board then, is it doable yes, is it easy, not particularly.

Wolf Blitzer: Okay let's go to Wisconsin, that just closed and it is a tossup state, though one that many outlets, but not CNN moved to lean Clinton late in the campaign

John King: Yes, let's look at Wisconsin, not much in so far, but do we have some exit poll data, so let's pull that up, this one is by gender, and if you compare it to 2012, you can see not much change, this one is by race, you compare it to 2012, not much change. Realistically, it was going to be very hard for Sarah Palin to pull off Wisconsin, since that Pennsylvania call came as early as it did, it suggests she didn't do as well with the required demographics to pull of a victory, and again if I pull up the electoral map again, if we give Wisconsin to Clinton, she wins, it's over, Palin can sweep everything else and it doesn't matter



At this point in the night, I'd much rather be Hillary Clinton than Sarah Palin.

Wolf Blitzer: now let's get a report from Sarah Palin HQ over in Anchorage

Reporter: Yes, I'm here at Sarah Palin HQ in Anchorage and there was a noted quiet when the Pennsylvania call came in, and I've just spoken to a strategist for the campaign, and they said that they "are very worried about Florida." When I asked them about Wisconsin, they said that they "never considered that a tossup state." It's very clearly Florida or Bust for the Palin campaign, and all of the signs we have indicate "Bust" right now.

Wolf Blitzer: Thank you and let's get a report from Hillary Clinton HQ in New York City

Reporter: It's a very different mood here in Midtown Manhattan at Hillary Clinton HQ, you can in fact hear the crowd behind me chanting "break that glass ceiling." Of course, the glass ceiling will be broken no matter what, because for the first time in American history, we have a woman presidential nominee, and both major parties nominated women, but Senator Clinton emphasized that far more in her campaign than the Vice President did. Also the crowd was ecstatic when Pennsylvania was called and I just spoke to a Clinton strategist who said they're watching both Virginia and Florida "very closely," but at the same time they said "we like what we see so far." But that's the key, "so far," it's an atmosphere of cautious optimism, but the Clinton camp definitely seems to agree that they seem favored to take the presidency at the moment.

9:30 PM

Wolf Blitzer: We can make some projections, we can project that Wisconsin and its 10 electoral votes will go to Hillary Clinton, the first tossup called tonight and it goes to Hillary Clinton. That gives her 169 electoral votes compared to 196 for Sarah Palin, you need 270 electoral votes to win the Presidency.



Wolf Blitzer: We can also make some calls in the Senate, in Wisconsin, Democratic Senator Russ Feingold will win re-election he defeats the Republican, Representative Sean Duffy, that gives the Democrats 40 Senate seats compared to 44 for the Republicans



10:00 PM poll closings

Wolf Blitzer: It is now 10:00 PM on the east coast, and polls are closing in several states including the swing states of Iowa and Nevada

We can project that Utah and its 6 electoral votes will go to Sarah Palin, we can project that Montana and its 3 electoral votes will go to Sarah Palin. It is too close to call in Nevada and too close to call in Iowa. That gives us 169 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 205 for Sarah Palin, you need 270 to win the White House.



Wolf Blitzer: In the battle for the Senate, we can call Utah for Republican Senator Mike Lee, a Republican hold and we can call Iowa for Republican Senator Chuck Grassley. It is too close to call in Nevada, where Senator Harry Reid is facing a competitive race against Representative Joe Heck. This gives us 46 Senate seats for the Republicans and 40 for the Democrats

[S019]

10:30 PM

Wolf Blitzer: We can make a projection, Arizona and it's 11 electoral votes they go to Sarah Palin, a closer race than expected but Arizona goes to Sarah Palin, she has 216 electoral votes, Hillary Clinton has 169, you need 270 to win the White House. Let's go over to the Magic Wall.



So, John King, Arizona called of course for Sarah Palin as expected, but another state where Republicans are hoping to pick up a Democratic held Senate seat. Let's get the latest on that one

John King: Sure, so we just called Arizona, you can see Hillary Clinton with 47% of the vote, Sarah Palin with 52%, now let's flip over to the Senate race, much better for the Democrats, as you see Senator Napolitano, the Democrat, with 50% of the vote, Representative Gosar, the Republican with 48% of the vote. Representative Gosar had a history of making controversial comments and it might just come back to bite the Republicans in Arizona, again there is some caution that Arizona counts slowly, so we probably won't know who won this race for a while.

10:50 PM

Wolf Blitzer: Stand by for a major projection, CNN projects that Virginia, with its 13 electoral votes will go to Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton becomes the first Democrat to win the state since 1964 and the win greatly narrowly's Vice President Palin's path to victory. That gives us 182 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 216 for Sarah Palin



John King, we'll look at gaming out the electoral college later, but first let's see how Hillary Clinton captured this state for the Democrats for the first time since 1964

John King: Well Wolf, when we started the night we said these DC suburbs were going to be key. This is Loudoun County, around 80% in, 4 years ago, John McCain won, but narrowly 50-49, today it's blue, Hillary Clinton wins it by around 7 pts, 53-46. Of course, a large swing to the Democrats in Loudoun County. Let's jump down here to the south, this is Henrico County, Richmond suburbs, four years ago, this was indeed blue, by around a margin of 53-47, today, it's blue again, but a larger margin 56-44. Right now, you see Hillary Clinton up by around 2.5 pts, she has 50.5%, Sarah Palin with 48%, and we're over 85% in right now.

Now let's take out the electoral college, so realistically following the Virginia call, this is where we stand:



Hillary Clinton at 260, Sarah Palin at 223, if Hillary Clinton wins Florida it's over, if Hillary Clinton wins Colorado, it would be a tie, but Democrats look like they're in good shape to hold on to the House majorities that they built in 2010 and 2014 not to mention they largely controlled the remapping in many states following 2010, so it's likely they'll have an advantage, if this goes to the House, so if you're Palin, realistically you need both Florida and Colorado, you're not doing well right now in Florida as we've seen all night, but let's just give them to her



Well now, you're at 261, let's say you take Nevada, your running mate's home state, that gets you to 267 and then either Iowa or New Hampshire does it. Of course, if you're Hillary Clinton, you are ecstatic about that Virginia call and you just want your lead in Florida to hold



Wolf Blitzer: Hold on John, it is 11:00 and we can make some projections

11:00 PM poll closings

It is 11:00 PM on the East Coast and we can make some projections, Hillary Clinton will win Washington and its 11 electoral votes, Oregon and its 7 electoral votes go to Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton will win California and its 55 electoral votes, Hillary Clinton will win Hawaii and its 4 electoral votes, Idaho and its 4 electoral votes will go to Sarah Palin. We can also project that Iowa and its 6 electoral votes will go to Sarah Palin, the first tossup state won by Sarah Palin tonight. That gives us 260 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton, just 10 shy of the 270 needed to win the Presidency, and 226 electoral votes for Sarah Palin. It is too close to call in Nevada.



We can also make some projections for the Senate, Democratic Senator Patty Murray of Washington will win re-election, Democratic Senator Ron Wyden of Oregon will win re-election, Kamala Harris will hold the Senate seat in California for the Democrats, Democratic Senator Brian will win re-election, and Republican senator Mike Crapo of Idaho will win re-election, that gives us 44 Senate seats for the Democrats and 48 for the Republicans, 50 are needed for control, and hold on we can make another Senate projection, Senator Betty Castor of Florida will win re-election defeating Representative Diaz-Balart, this was a seat that the Democrats and Republicans had both fought aggressively for, but Senator Castor she holds on in Florida, so that gives us 45 Senate seats for the Democrats and 48 for the Republicans. It is too close to call in Nevada, where Senator Reid is facing a competitive race against Representative Joe Heck.



So, John King, we just called the Senate race in Florida for the Democrats, Florida has been a state that has looked pretty good for Hillary Clinton all night, and if she won it, she would of course, win the presidency, where do things stand right now in Florida?

John King: Well right now if we look at the Senate race, Senator Castor with 52%, Rep Diaz-Balart with 48%, now let's jump to the Presidential, Hillary Clinton with 51%, Sarah Palin with 49% in, over 90% in, so now if you're Sarah Palin, you're going to start looking in these panhandle counties, how much vote is left there. Let's jump here to Escambia county, this is one of the bigger panhandle counties, pretty large military presence here, this is around 85% in, so some votes left here, but not many. Let's jump to Holmes County, pretty small around 19,000 people, and this one is 85% in, so not much left here. If we check through a few more of these, you're going to see not much left. Now, let's see are there any votes left for Senator Clinton. Let's come here to Orange County, this is Orlando, around 90% in, so you might get some here not much. Let's just down back to the Gold Coast, Broward County, 95% in, Palm Beach County, all in, Miami Dade, 90% in. So, the worrying thing for Sarah Palin is that this outstanding vote, it's pretty evenly divided. I have a hard time seeing her win this election with the numbers that we're seeing, it looks like she's going to fall just short.

11:30 PM

Wolf Blitzer: And we have a major projection, Hillary Rodham Clinton will become the first woman to win the presidency. The Democrats will win a presidential election for the first time since 2004, following two terms of John McCain, and we can make this projection because we project that Florida with its 29 electoral votes will go to Hillary Clinton, Hillary Clinton will win Florida which gives her 289 electoral votes, Sarah Palin with 226 electoral votes. Hillary Clinton will win the presidency. Florida has gone to the winner in every election since 1996 and it will continue its streak as America's bellwether.

[S019]

Let's get a report from Hillary Clinton HQ right now

Reporter: Well when you called Florida, the crowd behind me erupted in cheers, and started chanting "break that ceiling." I spoke to a campaign representative, and they said that Senator Clinton will be speaking around midnight eastern time. But you can already start to see some of the crowd behind me throwing confetti and celebrating.

Wolf Blitzer, CNN will of course have live coverage of the Clinton victory speech, now let's head to Sarah Palin HQ in Anchorage

Reporter: I'm here at Sarah Palin HQ and obviously the crowd very quiet. We spoke with a representative for the campaign, who said they plan to concede actually any minute now. The campaign had been expecting a loss since at least around 8:30, if not earlier. Though one bright side for the Republicans tonight, is that the Senate is still up for grabs and as we saw with the past two years, it can be difficult to pass policy if you have a Senate that isn't on your side.

Wolf Blitzer: Okay, so John King, while we're waiting on the Vice President's concession speech, let's have a look at the battle for the Senate, the Democrats with 45 right now and the Republicans with 47, and we've called the presidency, so the Democrats need 5 more seats the Republicans need 4 more, can we have a look at some of the uncalled seats

John King: Sure, let's come up here to New Hampshire, presidentially, it's a Clinton lead, but a narrow one at 52-48, on the Senate level, Governor Hassan trails Senator Ayotte by the smallest of amounts, but it's basically tied 50-50. We come down to North Carolina, Senator Marshall with around a 1 pt lead here 50-49 and we're over 95% counted, the Democrats might just hang onto that. Let's come here to Missouri, Senator Blunt still leading Secretary of State Kander by around 3 pts, 49-46, of course this is one that the Republicans feel they have to have. Let's go down to Louisiana, this one isn't going to be decided tonight, it's going to a runoff, control of the Senate could come down to a runoff in Louisiana.

Wolf Blitzer: Hold on John, we're getting reports that Sarah Palin has taken the stage in Anchorage

Thank you, thank you.

This is obviously not the result that we wanted. I know that all of you are incredibly disappointed, and I am too. It feels so discouraging to put in all of this work and have it go to waste. However, Senator Clinton has won this election and we must respect that, around 10 minutes ago, I called her to concede this race. I promised to help with the transition of power in any way that I can as Vice President. However, we need to take a moment to recognize the historic nature of this election. I, of course, was the first woman Vice President, for the first time in history, a major party nominated a woman for president, and both major parties did so. We need to respect the historic nature of this election. Millions of little girls across the country saw two women running for president and saw our nation's first female president be elected tonight. Those little girls know that they can do that too. I want to thank Dean and his amazing family, for staying by me throughout this campaign. I also want us to take a moment to recognize the importance of our democratic system. Our system of government works, as Vice President, I've traveled to many countries where people do not enjoy the same democratic rights as we do. Most of all, I want all of the strategists and volunteers who worked on our campaign, or even anyone thinking of entering politics, whether it be running for office or strategizing or fundraising to go for it. Our democracy is stronger when there are more voices in it. I hope that Senator Clinton will be a voice for all of us, and it is important that we give her the chance to govern. We need to come into this administration with an open mind, and recognize the mandate that she has earned. Lastly, I want to thank everyone who has helped me get to where I am today, whether it be my family or my friends, I want to thank all of you for your hard work not just in this campaign, but in life, as well. Thank you, and may God bless you all. Thank you!

Wolf Blitzer: So, we just heard Sarah Palin concede the presidential election. Made mention of the historic nature of this election and also in general a pretty uplifting speech for such a disappointing outcome.

Jake Tapper: Indeed, it was a pretty uplifting speech, but honestly the Republicans have good reason to be happy, the chances look good that they will take the Senate, and much of the McCain agenda passed during the 2008-2010 Congress, looks pretty secure.

Dana Bash: Yeah, and another thing is a lot of the Republican agenda has been pretty bipartisan too, for instance in 2015, you saw McCainCare passed and that was a bit crafted with lots of Democratic input, and also more importantly it avoiding ceding the healthcare issue to the Democrats which nearly cost them 2012

Jake Tapper: Yeah, absolutely, and also you saw McCain work with the Democrats to pass middle tax cuts. The Democrats will not acknowledge this, but there's a reason that the Democrats lost so badly in 2008 and part of it was the recession, but part of it was also that during 2006-2008, Al Gore was far less willing to work with the Republican House.

Wolf Blitzer: What type of gridlock can we expect in a Clinton presidency, if the Republicans do indeed win the Senate.

Dana Bash: For sure, both parties major initiatives seem pretty safe, it seems that the tax cuts pushed by John McCain back in 2009 looks pretty safe and Al Gore's Social Security reform looks pretty safe. Though if anyone is going to be successful at working with the other party in Congress, it's Hillary Clinton. She has a long bipartisan reputation in Washington, and there are absolutely Republican moderates like Senator Johnson of Connecticut or Senator Smith of Oregon or Senator Collins of Maine, who will be open to working with her.

Wolf Blitzer: Of course, congressional Democrats and President McCain have little in common and have still largely clashed throughout this administration.

Dana Bash: Indeed, they have and that's why we've mentioned gridlock so much tonight. Most of President McCain's agenda, whether it be the tax cuts that he passed following the recession to stimulate the economy, or whether it be the invasion of Iran that he approved when the US found out that Iran was enriching uranium. Much of that happened from 2008-2010 when Republicans had majorities in both Houses, they of course lost their House majority in 2010, and since then we haven't seen much. Of course, we saw the push for McCainCare in 2015, and it largely took healthcare out of discussion for this election. We saw the expansion of middle class and lower class tax cuts from the post-stimulus rates. Of course, the question remains if Republicans win the Senate, where will Hillary Clinton try to find common ground with the Republicans. John McCain picked an issue that wins him his base, taxes, and an issue that'd help win the election, healthcare. Of course the Democratic base is probably going to want to want more action on that front as well as a strengthening of Al Gore's cap-and-trade scheme, which was pretty weak since it needed moderate Republicans and Democrats to get passed. It seems unlikely she'll get either done, but it seems the Democrats might hold on to the Senate with sizable overperformances in North Carolina and Arizona and the chance that they pickup New Hampshire.

11:50 PM

Wolf Blitzer: We can make a major projection, and that is that Senator Elaine Marshall of North Carolina will win re-election, a huge boost to Democratic hopes for keeping the Senate, Senator Marshall wins re-election, so let's take a look at where the race for the Senate stands right now. That gives us 45 Senate seats for the Democrats and 48 for the Republicans. We can also project that Senator Roy Blunt of Missouri will hold his seat in a closer than expected contest, but Senator Blunt will win Missouri, giving us 49 Senate seats for the Republicans and 45 for the Democrats

12:00 AM
 
Wolf Blitzer: Let's go live now to Manhattan where Hillary Clinton will speak at any moment

Loud speaker: Please welcome the next President of the United States, Hillary Diane Rodham Clinton

(Hillary walks onto stage and under a glass ceiling, which she smashes on her way to the speaking podium)

Clinton: Thank you, America

Today, we've finally shattered that highest, hardest glass ceiling, I want to thank all of you who supported my campaign and made this possible. A short while back, Vice President Palin called me to concede the election, I accepted her call, and expressed the best wishes for the transition. I want to make one thing clear, whether you voted for me or not, I will be a President for all Americans. Despite the brutality of this campaign, I assure you there is more that unites us than divides us. Today, the forgotten men and women of America are who won. I believe that in my administration we can find common ground with the Republicans, who seem to have likely won the Senate, in many ways. I believe we can work together to end the gender pay gap and ensure women are paid $1 for every dollar that men are. I believe we can work together to raise the minimum wage so that everyone in America can survive on one job. I believe we can work together to expand the framework built by McCainCare into the plan that I championed two decades ago. Even if not every Republican will support these plans, I am confident we can get some moderate Republicans who will. If Republicans will not support my plans, I will not be afraid to use executive orders to tackle the major issues of our day including climate change. I will also not be afraid to build off the successes of President McCain in major policy areas. I remain committed to maintaining the American presence in Iran until we can be sure that they will not enrich uranium again. I will not let my administration be plagued by partisan bickering. If I have the will to do something, I will not back down! Now, I want to take a moment to talk to all those young girls watching today and I want to tell them, that this is proof that in America, with enough hard work, you can be whoever you want to be. It has been an honor to be a champion for millions of women and young girls across America. We witnessed a historic election where both major parties nominated women, the first time in history that either party had done so. However, I want to remind every women in America that our work is not done. This is merely just a step in the women's movement first started at Seneca Falls. We still need to push for true equality for women not just here in America, but also around the world. This is a struggle and fight that will extend past my lifetime and likely past yours too, but we cannot get discouraged, the harder we fight now, the less that our future generations will have to fight. I am ready to work hard and fight for every American. However, it will not just be, I, who will fight for you. My wonderful running mate and the future Vice President, Mark Warner, has a long record of standing up for everyday Americans and he will continue to do so as my Vice President. My husband, Bill, who dedicated his administration to fighting for everyday Americans will continue to be working hard, just as I worked hard during his administration. I want to thank both of them, as well as my entire campaign team for the hard work they put into this campaign to make this result possible. Most importantly, I want to thank every American who voted for me to be your champion, I won't let you down. Thank you all!
 

Wolf Blitzer: Hillary Clinton gave her victory speech and it definitely was quite different from the Vice President's concession speech earlier.

Jake Tapper: Notably a much more different tone in this speech compared to the one that Vice President Palin gave. There was some hope yes, but it was not the type of grasping or consoling hope that we heard in the Palin speech. There was an element of victory to this speech. Now people might say "well of course, there was an element of victory, because it was a victory speech," but it should be noted Democrats' hopes of getting anything substantial done really rest on banking on Alaska's independence streak winning out over the Vice President's popularity there

Dana Bash: Yeah exactly, Hillary Clinton definitely laid out a bold plan, but not much of it is going to be done. For instance, when McCainCare was being negotiated, many Republicans did not go along with the negotiations. Neither Minority Leader McConnell nor Minority Leader Boehner whipped their caucus for the votes. It was very much a negotiation driven by Democrats including the likes of Tom Daschle, Harry Reid, Nancy Pelosi, Barack Obama, Steny Hoyer, and Hillary Clinton. Many of whom wanted to go further, but the President threw cold water on that idea.

Jake Tapper: Yeah, earlier tonight you mentioned Senators Johnson and Collins as possible target votes for the Democrats in this upcoming session, but even they, were skeptical of the idea. I mean Senator Johnson is at least open to it, Senator Collins has basically already said that she would not support the Clinton healthcare plan.

Dana Bash: Also more importantly, even if the administration can get enough Republican votes to put together a hypothetical budget reconciliation package on healthcare, or equal pay, or climate change, that package is not going to get a floor vote if Mitch McConnell is the leader, or at the very least, if he brings it up, it is not going to be brought up as a reconciliation package.

Jake Tapper: Yeah exactly, while it sounds optimistic that you can somehow get enough Republican support to get a floor vote on issues like healthcare or equal pay, it just seems unrealistic. In fact, I don't even think they'd get the votes to bypass a filibuster on these issues, if they can't use budget reconciliation.

Dana Bash: We've mentioned climate change several times tonight, yet interestingly there was no mention of her promise to expand Al Gore's signature achievement, which has been a top goal of Democrats, since really not long after it was passed.

Jake Tapper: That was indeed one of the more interesting parts of her speech, especially since it is of course a top priority for Democrats. Another one of the more interesting aspects to me was the emphasis on the struggles of the women's movement, which certainly gave her speech a more universal appeal.

Wolf Blitzer: Stand by we have some projections

12:40 AM

Wolf Blitzer: We have a projection, Hillary Clinton will win New Hampshire and its 4 electoral votes, she adds to her total, she now has 293 electoral votes compared to 226 for Sarah Palin





So, John King, the Republicans are at 49 seats, just two short of what they need to take the majority, where do things realistically stand.

John King: Well, first and foremost, we have Louisiana going to a runoff, but the Republican has led big in runoff polling there, and we don't expect much to change on that front.

Wolf Blitzer: So, we called New Hampshire for Hillary Clinton and that is a seat that the Republicans are of course defending, how do things look in New Hampshire.

John King: Well let's go to New Hampshire, the Democrat, Governor Hassan now with a narrow lead, 50.1-49.5, and when it's that close, especially in this small of a state, even with over 90% in, it's difficult to make a projection. Now we're going to go over to Nevada, presidentially Sarah Palin leading here 51-48, we flip to the Senate race and Senator Reid leads, narrowly, but it's a lead, 51-49, but again, it's getting late, time is running out. Here in Arizona, this is probably one of the best results of the night for the Democrats, Senator Napolitano has established a three point lead, 51-48, over her opponent, Representative Gosar, it looks like it will be enough, but we're not sure yet, Sarah Palin leads by around 5, 52-47. Let's now go to Colorado, a state that hasn't been called yet on the presidential level. Hillary Clinton leads here by around 2 pts, 50-48, and Senator Bennet with a larger lead in the Senate race over Darryl Glenn, 52-48, honestly Democrats should feel very good about all three of these Southwest races so far. Of course, Alaska has yet to close, and it's a state that has a bit of an independent streak, maybe the Democrats can indeed hold onto the Senate tonight, a task that many thought was very improbable coming in, simply due to the sheer amount of seats that they had to defend.


Wolf Blitzer: Hold on John, it is 1:00 and we can make some projections

Wolf Blitzer: We can project that Alaska and its 3 electoral votes go to Sarah Palin, the Vice President will win her home state. That gives us 293 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton and 230 electoral votes for Sarah Palin



Wolf Blitzer: In the battle for the Senate, which may well come down to Alaska, it is too early to call between Senator Knowles, the Democrat, and Dan Sullivan, the Republican, a former Anchorage mayor not to be confused with Dan Sullivan, who lost the state's other Senate seat to Mark Begich in 2014. However, we can make a Senate projection, in Colorado, Senator Michael Bennet wins re-election defeating Darryl Glenn, and holding the seat for the Democrats. That gives 46 Senate seats for the Democrats and 49 for the Republicans.

[S019]

1:25 AM

Wolf Blitzer: We have some major projections to make. Sarah Palin will win the state of Nevada and its 6 electoral votes, the state of her running mate, Senator Heller, it goes to Sarah Palin. That gives her 232 electoral votes compared to 293 for Hillary Clinton. Sarah Palin is also the apparent winner in the Nebraska's 2nd congressional district, a district based around Omaha, where there was a very competitive race, Sarah Palin will hold on there. That gives us 236 electoral votes for Sarah Palin and 293 for Hillary Clinton. It also leaves Colorado as the only state that we have not called tonight.


We can also make some calls for the Senate, Senator Janet Napolitano, the Democrat, will win re-election in Arizona, she defeats her opponent Representative Gosar, who had drawn attention for his several controversial remarks on the campaign trail. That gives us 47 Senate seats for the Democrats and 49 for the Republicans.



Wolf Blitzer: Earlier we had been talking about how Hillary Clinton would probably have to deal with a Republican Senate, but the Democrats have definitely closed the gap by holding North Carolina and Arizona

Dana Bash: Yes, it is indeed pretty surprising, how well the Democrats have done in their McCain/Palin seats, they lost the ones that people thought they'd lose, but the competitive ones, they've held on in, for the most part. Of course, even if they do hold Alaska, they need to flip New Hampshire, which looks like anyone's game right now. But this has definitely been a very good election for the Democrats, coming into this election you heard talk of them losing 7, 8, 9, 10 seats. Had Palin done better in some of these states, especially in Florida and North Carolina, you definitely could've started to see the dominoes fall.

Jake Tapper: Yeah, Dana, you touched on an interesting point and that's that Hillary Clinton does indeed deserve a lot of credit for keeping the margins close enough to the point where these incumbents could plausibly outrun her, that was true in Arizona and it was true in North Carolina. Of course, the Republicans didn't help their chances in Arizona by nominating Rep. Gosar who was probably one of the worst fits for the state imaginable. Even if they do lose Alaska, you can say this was definitely a good night for the Democrats. If they do lose Alaska, but win New Hampshire, there's always that long-shot Hail Mary in Louisiana. Low chance that they get it, but we've seen more surprising things

Dana Bash: Of course this election is going to sting for the Democrats since they've lost some of their most distinguished members: Evan Bayh, Leader Daschle, and Byron Dorgan. But overall, they have much reason to be happy as we were saying earlier, several moderates like Senator Johnson of CT, Senator Chaffee of RI, Senator Kean of NJ, Senator Smith of OR, and Senator Collins of ME would all be open to working with her, you add in some other members who could plausibly work with her like Senator Wilson of NM, and you know maybe you get to a point where you can break the filibuster, if not you're at least at a point where you have more than enough support to try to pass some compromise measure through budget reconciliation. I think this Congress is better for Hillary Clinton than the 2014 Congress was for John McCain, though that caucus obviously had its fair share of moderate Democrats, too, including two who went down tonight, Senator Mongiardo and Senator Bayh.

1:40 AM

We can make a projection, Senator Harry Reid of Nevada has held on to his Senate seat against Republican challenger Representative Joe Heck, the Democrats will hold on to this seat, that gives us 48 Senate seats for the Democrats and 49 for the Republicans:



We can also project that Hillary Clinton will carry Colorado and its 9 electoral votes, she becomes the first Democrat to win Colorado, since her husband and future First Gentleman of the United States, Bill Clinton, won it back in 1992. This gives us 302 electoral votes for Hillary Clinton, compared to 236 for Sarah Palin. It also completes the electoral map tonight.



Wolf Blitzer: So, John King, the Democrats have taken the Presidency and they've held the House, now all eyes are on the Senate, but a chance for Democrats to get their first trifecta since the 2004 elections.

John King: Yes, and Democrats need both New Hampshire and Alaska realistically, Alaska counts slow, so we won't know the result there, unless either side runs away with it, and right now, we look at Alaska, and this is a bad sign for the Democrats, Mayor Sullivan up 7 over Senator Knowles, 53-47. Now, let's go over to New Hampshire, and Governor Hassan has a wider lead at 50.3-49.3, this might be big enough for Senator Ayotte to not come back from it, but we'll see. In fact, the only reason we're even talking about the Senate is that almost across the board, the Democrats outran Hillary Clinton and the Republicans underran Sarah Palin, and there will be many questions as to why that happened, but if Republicans do lose the Senate, it may be because they didn't distance themselves enough from Sarah Palin.

2:00 AM

Wolf Blitzer: It is now 2 AM, and we can project that the Democrats have picked up the Senate Seat in New Hampshire, Governor Maggie Hassan has defeated the Republican incumbent, Kelly Ayotte, giving the Democrats 49 Senate seats compared to 49 for the Republicans.



3:30 AM

John King: Well this latest batch we got out of Alaska, it doesn't look good for Senator Knowles, and now Mayor Sullivan, the lead is up to 10 now, 55-45, however, again this was a state that was won big by Sarah Palin, she won it 27 points, 63-36 and a 9 point overperformance is indeed incredible, and what we're seeing again and again tonight is that the Democrats likely  lost their majority, because they were unable to outrun Hillary Clinton by enough in heavily Republican states, but they held on enough in lean Republican states to perhaps have a shot in 2018, especially given that the Republicans hold seats in states like Connecticut, New Jersey, and New Mexico, which voted overwhelmingly for Hillary Clinton tonight, but for now, it looks like, just like Al Gore, Hillary Clinton is going to enter office, with a chamber hostile to her, for President Gore, it was the House, for President-elect Clinton, it will likely be the Senate.

3:50 PM

Wolf Blitzer: We can project that Republicans will win Alaska, likely winning Senate control, as they are heavily favored to win the Louisiana runoff. Mayor Sullivan, the Republican, has defeated the Democratic incumbent Senator Tony Knowles. That gives us 50 Senate seats for the Republicans, compared to 49 for the Democrats




LA runoff results:

63: Boustany (R)
37%: Campbell (D)

Final Results:

Presidency (Democratic Gain from Republican):

Clinton: 302 EV, 52%
Palin: 236 EV, 47%

Senate Results (Republican Gain from Democratic):

Democrats: 49 (-4)
Republicans: 51 (+4)

Seats changing hands:

D->R
SD (Defeat of Incumbent)
ND (Defeat of Incumbent)
IN (Defeat of Incumbent)
KY (Defeat of Incumbent)
AK (Defeat of Incumbent)

R->D
NH (Defeat of Incumbent)

House: (Democratic Hold)

Democratic: around 235
Republican: around 200