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Question: Which Midterm Scenario do you want me to do
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1974 Without Watergate
 
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1994 if Bush won Re-Election
 
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2002 without 9/11
 
#4
2018 if Hillary won in 2016
 
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2022 if Trump retired after losing
 
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Author Topic: Election Night Timelines Project  (Read 16919 times)
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« on: September 17, 2020, 01:58:43 PM »
« edited: September 17, 2020, 02:12:01 PM by Old School Republican »

President Johnson and I are gonna do this project where we each alternate doing a hypothetical election matchup and do an election night only timeline of that matchup and we will do it in this thread as well.

So some of the elections I plan to do are: 2016: Kasich vs Hillary, 2008 Mark Warner vs Rudy Guiliani, 1960 Nixon vs Humphrey then i might do a Ron Paul path to victory one too.


I will still be updating my McCain TL but I wont get that many updates(ill still get 1-2 updates a week done as well) since I am busy
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« Reply #1 on: September 17, 2020, 02:27:15 PM »

I'll do my own maps for how I think each of the match-ups you gave out would go.

2016: Kasich vs. Hillary



John Kasich: 319 electoral votes
Hillary Clinton: 219 electoral votes

2008: Warner vs. Guiliani



Mark Warner: 333 electoral votes
Rudy Guiliani: 205 electoral votes

1960: Nixon vs. Humphrey



Hubert Humphrey: 292 electoral votes
Richard Nixon: 245 electoral votes

BONUS: 2012 Ron Paul victory against Barack Obama



Ron Paul: 285 electoral votes
President Obama: 253 electoral votes
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« Reply #2 on: September 17, 2020, 07:01:37 PM »

Final CNN 2016 Election Battleground Map:

Presidential Election:



Governor John Kasich(R-OH)/Senator Macro Rubio(R-FL) 264
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton(R-NY)/Senator Tim Kaine(R-VA) 198

John King: While Secretary Clinton still does have a path left to get to the magic numbers her path is much harder as out of all these battleground states if she cannot afford to lose a single one with the exception of Maine and currently in the polls Governor Kasich holds leads in Pennsylvania, Colorado, Nevada, is basically tied in Michigan,  and Virginia and isnt down much either in Wisconsin.

Also while we believe that Minnesota and Oregon do lean Clinton's way one potential problem for Secretary Clinton in those states is that Green Party Candidate Jill Stein is doing well in either of those states and if Mrs.Stein manages to get over 5% in Oregon and 3% in Minnesota both those states will likely be within a point or two so there is a potential of spolier in states that usually are strongly Democratic. How Mrs.Clinton is trying to deal with the issue is that her primary opponent Senator Bernie Sanders is going to hold rallies in Minnesota and Oregon to keep the Green Party vote down in those states

Even then her path remains really difficult and probably more difficult then it was for Governor Romney 4 years ago though not as difficult as it was For Senator McCain back in 2008. Now lets look at the Senate


Senate Battleground:



Republicans 47
Democrats 45
Battleground 8

John King: On that map , darker shade means we except the incumbent party to hold the seat, lighter means we exect a flip and green are the battlegrounds. From what we see Republicans need 4 seats , 3 if they win the presidency to take the senate while Democrats need 6 , 5 if they take the presidency.

Now with a day left we can say that Lieutenant Governor Lopez-Cantera is favored in Florida, Senator Burr is favored in North Carolina and Senator Ayotte is favored in New Hampshire which means the Republicans get to 50 from those 3 seats alone. Now former Senator Feingold is favored to win along with Senator Bennett but that means they sweep the remaining battlegrounds of Missouri, Pennsylvania and Nevada and win the Presidency they likely wont take the senate unless they can pull an upset of in either Florida or New Hampshire
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« Reply #3 on: September 17, 2020, 09:33:00 PM »

Kasich 299, Clinton 239 is my guess. Though it could be 338-200 as well.
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« Reply #4 on: September 17, 2020, 11:52:15 PM »

2016 CNN Election Night Coverage(Exit Poll):

6:55 PM:
Wolf Blitzer: Lets go over now to John King to look at our exit poll for tonight

King: Ok here are what are exit polls are saying

Gender:
Male: 48%; Kasich 54% Clinton 42%
Female:52%; Clinton 51% Kasich 46%

Age:

18-29: 19% ; Clinton 51% Kasich 41%
30-44: 25% ; Kasich 49% Clinton 47%
45-64: 40% ; Kasich 55% Clnton 43%
65+: 16%; Kasich 55% Clinton 43%

Race:

White: 71% ; Kasich 61% Clinton 36%
African American: 12 ; Clinton 88% Kasich 10%
Hispanic: 11;  Clinton 60% Kasich 38%
Asian: 4; Clinton 58% Kasich 39%
Other: 3; Clinton 56% Kasich 40%

Income:

Under 50k: Clinton 52% Kasich 44%
50k-100k: Kasich 55% Clinton 43%
100k+ Kasich 54% Clinton 43%


John King: All in all these exit polls do show what the national polls were showing which was around a 4 point lead for Governor Kasich though this exit poll is more near the 5 point area. It does show that Governor Kasich has made inroads across the board from Governor Roney performance 4 years ago even among female voters . Now these are just exit polls so anyone can still win
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« Reply #5 on: September 18, 2020, 12:01:28 AM »

The way you portrayed these exit polls compared to 2016 now says this will likely happen.



Give or take NM and OR.
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« Reply #6 on: September 18, 2020, 02:33:54 AM »

2016 CNN Election Night Coverage(Part 1):

7:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU


Wolf Blitzer: Welcome to CNN's coverage of the 2016 election, where after a 20 week long campaign we will finally know who will be the next President of the United States, will it be John Kasich of Ohio or Hillary Clinton of New York. First things first, we have some poll closing results to go through at the top of the hour and at this moment we can project that Governor Kasich will carry the states of Indiana and Kentucky while Secretary Clinton will carry the state of Vermont. We are unable at the moment to make a projection in Florida,  Georgia, South Carolina or in Virginia.



Kasich 19
Clinton 3

So Dana what is your reaction to the exit poll and these opening results

Bash: Well first let me tell you people have forgotten this but Governor Kasich for seemingly all of the pre primary period of the race was polling in 9th or 10th in the Republican field but a surprise win in New Hampshire after the release of the infamous Access Hollywood tape allowed him to win New Hampshire. Senator Rubio now his running mate then would win in South Carolina which in hindsight guaranteed his victory has it divided the more conservative vote which allowed him to win the nomination.

Now he has managed to unite the party and now the Republicans are favored to win the trifecta  for the first time since the lost in 2006 midterm elections.

Tapper: Yes the exit poll is really bad news for Secretary Clinton but remember this is just an exit poll and a regular margin of error in an poll could be around 3 points so if that goes in her favor she would only lose by 2 points and remember President Obama could have lost the popular vote as well and still won so its not over by any means. Of course though the exit poll can go in the other way too.


7:30:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

Wolf Blitzer: The polls have closen in 3 more states and CNN can now project that Governor John Kasich will carry his home state of Ohio , along with the states of South Carolina and West Virginia.



Kasich 51
Clinton 3

John King: While Ohio has been a battelground state for a long time, this year it wasnt even close to one due to Governor Kasich popularity in the state and infact polls are showing that it could be more Republican than its neighboring Missouri this time. DUe to this the state wasnt even contested by the Clinton camp which was a smart move. Something that is interesting is I want to take you to Florida where Governor Kasich is currently leading and you see why the have an advantage this year there, and that is donw in SOuth East Florida an area where Democrats usually need to run up the margins they are performing the worst they have there since 2004 although not nearly as bad as they did then, and Palm Beach by barely more than 10 while counties like Duval and Pinnelas are going Republicans.  Remember Senator Marco Rubio was put on the ticket by Governor Kasich in hopes of carrying Florida and they are in very good shape to do just that.


As for the senate race then well the performances here is much more closer with Democrats winning Miami Dade with over 60% of the vote but its clear that they have problems in the I4 corridor and that will make winning that race difficult too.


Cooper: The fact that the Republicans on the ticket have a popular governor from Ohio and a popular seantor from Florida is really big as they have put two usually major battleground states out of play though Florida is no where near as out of play as Ohio. That has made their path to 270 much easier than it has any time in the past two decades really




7:50:

Blitzer: CNN Can now project the state of Georgia and its 16 electoral votes will go to Governor Kasich. Once again no surprise but an interesting point to note is the state has been called earlier than it was 4 years ago




Kasich 67
Clinton 3
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« Reply #7 on: September 18, 2020, 12:36:49 PM »

Great going so far. While I'd support Hillary, Kasich would be a decent president after all.
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« Reply #8 on: September 18, 2020, 01:19:15 PM »

Nice TL idea. But I firmly reject the Moderate Hero Kasich (TM) would crush Hillary idea. There's no way he carries the Trump or even some of the Cruz voters. I think Clinton takes IA, WI, MI, FL, and PA to win the election. Maybe drops VA and NV.
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« Reply #9 on: September 18, 2020, 01:52:57 PM »

2016 CNN Election Night Coverage(Part 1):

8:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

Blitzer: The polls have just closed in a huge batch of states and CNN can now project that Governor Kasich will win the states of Alabama, Mississippi, Oklahoma and Tennessee while Secretary Clinton will carry the states of Deleware, Illionis, Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey and Rhose Island  . We are unable to make projections at the moment in Connecticut, Flordia, Maine, Missouri, New Hampshire, and Pennslyvania .



Kasich 100
Clinton 68

Tapper: In the Senate we can project that Congressman Tammy Duckworth will defeat Senator Mark Kirk to become the next Senator of Deleware  but we can also project at the time that Senator Richard Burr will be reelected in North Carolina .

So if you look at the Battleground Senate races so far

Democratic Hold:  
Democratic Pickups: Illions

Republican Hold: North Carolina
Republican Pickup


Tapper: So while yes Democrats have gained 1 seat tonight Republicans have already won 1 of the 3 or 4 key races they need to take over the senate

Blitzer: Hold on CNN can now make another projection and that is we can project the Republicans will hold control of the House of Representatives

CNN Breaking News : Republican to Retain Control of House of Representatives
Cooper: Not much of a surprise but our projection so far has Republicans winning anywhere from 245-254 house seats so far so not much of a change in either direction.

Blizer: Lets go to the Magic Wall to see how some of the battleground states are going


King: Well first in Virginia as you can see the Republicans have a large lead right now including in Loudon and Prince Willam counties but remember at this point of the night Governor Romeny also led in those two counties and ended up losing both those counties and ultimately the state as well. On the other hand Governor Kasich is making further gains in the rural parts of the state and is winning key counties such as Chesapeake so this state will end up being really tight.

In Florida the panhandle part of the state has started to come in and really at this point unless we something different happen in SE Florida I dont see a way that Florida will vote for Secretary Clinton and same thing when you come to North Carolina. Other states like Missouri and Connecticut I want to remind people are not battlegrounds its just there hasnt been enough precients that come in yet for us to call those states

8:30:

Blitzer: The polls have closed in Arkansas and CNN can now project the state for Governor Kasich while we can also project that Connecticut will be won by Secretary Clinton



Kasich 106
Clinton 75

8:45:

Blitzer: We have a major projection to make right now and that is Florida, Florida and its 29 electoral votes will be won by Governor John Kasich



Kasich 135
Clinton 75

Blitzer: We are starting to get some information in from Pennsylvania and what are we seeing

King: Remember while it may seem like Secretary Clinton has a huge lead thats cause really only the Democratic areas of the state have come in so far and if we go ahead and click this feature we have which compares 2012 vs 2016 we can see that Governor Kasich across the board is doing better than Governor Romney did and is even leading in counties President Obama won like Luzerne County ,  in Bucks county and in the senate race Pat Toomey is doing even better than Governor Kasich did. Now of course the Democrats won Pennslyvania by 5 points in 2012 so they can underperform President Obama and still win but a problem is that Western Pennsylvania which has been continuingly trending republican since 2000 is further trending Republican so these results out east is not good news as all for the Democrats.

One bright news though is in Missouri where Secretary of State Jason Kander is doing really well for a democrat in the Suburbs of Kansas city and St Louis so this could be a bright spot for them tonight.
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« Reply #10 on: September 18, 2020, 01:58:43 PM »

Nice TL idea. But I firmly reject the Moderate Hero Kasich (TM) would crush Hillary idea. There's no way he carries the Trump or even some of the Cruz voters. I think Clinton takes IA, WI, MI, FL, and PA to win the election. Maybe drops VA and NV.

I fully disagree, Hillary Clinton was extremely extremely unpopular and the GOP base particularly hated her so they would still come out in droves .

Also people miss this but their was a recession in the Midwest in 2016 and Kasich has a history of being able to appeal to both Non College Educated Whites and Colledge Educated Whites and his moderate positions on issues like Healthcare would help him do so
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« Reply #11 on: September 18, 2020, 02:39:37 PM »

Nice TL idea. But I firmly reject the Moderate Hero Kasich (TM) would crush Hillary idea. There's no way he carries the Trump or even some of the Cruz voters. I think Clinton takes IA, WI, MI, FL, and PA to win the election. Maybe drops VA and NV.

I fully disagree, Hillary Clinton was extremely extremely unpopular and the GOP base particularly hated her so they would still come out in droves .

Also people miss this but their was a recession in the Midwest in 2016 and Kasich has a history of being able to appeal to both Non College Educated Whites and Colledge Educated Whites and his moderate positions on issues like Healthcare would help him do so

Turning out of the base is far more important than perceived moderation. Kasich isn’t turning out the Trump industrial base. You’re putting too much stock into Kasich’s “moderation.”
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« Reply #12 on: September 18, 2020, 02:41:45 PM »

Nice TL idea. But I firmly reject the Moderate Hero Kasich (TM) would crush Hillary idea. There's no way he carries the Trump or even some of the Cruz voters. I think Clinton takes IA, WI, MI, FL, and PA to win the election. Maybe drops VA and NV.

I fully disagree, Hillary Clinton was extremely extremely unpopular and the GOP base particularly hated her so they would still come out in droves .

Also people miss this but their was a recession in the Midwest in 2016 and Kasich has a history of being able to appeal to both Non College Educated Whites and Colledge Educated Whites and his moderate positions on issues like Healthcare would help him do so

Turning out of the base is far more important than perceived moderation. Kasich isn’t turning out the Trump industrial base. You’re putting too much stock into Kasich’s “moderation.”

Kasich would turn out the base due to hatred the base had of Hillary and also people forget but their was a recession in the Midwest in 2016

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/29/upshot/mini-recession-2016-little-known-big-impact.html

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« Reply #13 on: September 18, 2020, 02:46:07 PM »

Nice TL idea. But I firmly reject the Moderate Hero Kasich (TM) would crush Hillary idea. There's no way he carries the Trump or even some of the Cruz voters. I think Clinton takes IA, WI, MI, FL, and PA to win the election. Maybe drops VA and NV.

I fully disagree, Hillary Clinton was extremely extremely unpopular and the GOP base particularly hated her so they would still come out in droves .

Also people miss this but their was a recession in the Midwest in 2016 and Kasich has a history of being able to appeal to both Non College Educated Whites and Colledge Educated Whites and his moderate positions on issues like Healthcare would help him do so

Turning out of the base is far more important than perceived moderation. Kasich isn’t turning out the Trump industrial base. You’re putting too much stock into Kasich’s “moderation.”

Kasich would turn out the base due to hatred the base had of Hillary and also people forget but their was a recession in the Midwest in 2016

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/29/upshot/mini-recession-2016-little-known-big-impact.html



1. It cannot be denied that Trump had a powerful and unique appeal, he brought in non voters and many enthusiastic converts

2. So?
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« Reply #14 on: September 18, 2020, 02:50:49 PM »

Nice TL idea. But I firmly reject the Moderate Hero Kasich (TM) would crush Hillary idea. There's no way he carries the Trump or even some of the Cruz voters. I think Clinton takes IA, WI, MI, FL, and PA to win the election. Maybe drops VA and NV.

I fully disagree, Hillary Clinton was extremely extremely unpopular and the GOP base particularly hated her so they would still come out in droves .

Also people miss this but their was a recession in the Midwest in 2016 and Kasich has a history of being able to appeal to both Non College Educated Whites and Colledge Educated Whites and his moderate positions on issues like Healthcare would help him do so

Turning out of the base is far more important than perceived moderation. Kasich isn’t turning out the Trump industrial base. You’re putting too much stock into Kasich’s “moderation.”

Kasich would turn out the base due to hatred the base had of Hillary and also people forget but their was a recession in the Midwest in 2016

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/29/upshot/mini-recession-2016-little-known-big-impact.html



1. It cannot be denied that Trump had a powerful and unique appeal, he brought in non voters and many enthusiastic converts

2. So?

Trump did worse raw percentage-wise in PA and WI than Bush did in 2004 and the recession did impact as that turns people against the incumbent party
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« Reply #15 on: September 18, 2020, 02:52:25 PM »

Nice TL idea. But I firmly reject the Moderate Hero Kasich (TM) would crush Hillary idea. There's no way he carries the Trump or even some of the Cruz voters. I think Clinton takes IA, WI, MI, FL, and PA to win the election. Maybe drops VA and NV.

I fully disagree, Hillary Clinton was extremely extremely unpopular and the GOP base particularly hated her so they would still come out in droves .

Also people miss this but their was a recession in the Midwest in 2016 and Kasich has a history of being able to appeal to both Non College Educated Whites and Colledge Educated Whites and his moderate positions on issues like Healthcare would help him do so

Turning out of the base is far more important than perceived moderation. Kasich isn’t turning out the Trump industrial base. You’re putting too much stock into Kasich’s “moderation.”

Kasich would turn out the base due to hatred the base had of Hillary and also people forget but their was a recession in the Midwest in 2016

https://www.nytimes.com/2018/09/29/upshot/mini-recession-2016-little-known-big-impact.html



1. It cannot be denied that Trump had a powerful and unique appeal, he brought in non voters and many enthusiastic converts

2. So?

Trump did worse raw percentage-wise in PA and WI than Bush did in 2004 and the recession did impact as that turns people against the incumbent party

1. That’s just because of third party voters. Any gains by Kasich would make with them would be offset two fold by the loss of trumps industrial base

2. That really didn’t have an impact on the 2016 election.
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« Reply #16 on: September 18, 2020, 06:26:39 PM »
« Edited: September 19, 2020, 02:03:43 AM by Old School Republican »

2016 CNN Election Night Coverage(Part 3):

9:00
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

Blitzer: its 9 in the east and CNN can now project that Texas and all of its 38 electoral votes will be won by Governor Kasich as well as Lousiana, Kansas, Nebraka, North and South Dakotan and Wyoming. We can also protect that Secretary Clinton will win New York and its 29 electoral votes. We currently are unable to make a project in Michigan, Wisconsin, Minnesota, Colorado, New Mexico and Arizona.




Kasich 201
Clinton 104

Bash: While many of the preelection polls had Kasich as the heavy favorite, he is so far even outperforming those expectations and really the Democrats, in my opinion, will have to reassess their strategy because really other than 2012 the Democrats have not had a single good election night since 2008. Among White College Educated Whites for example they lose 56-42 last time this time they are losing 57-41 and among non college whites 65-31 compared to 61-36 last time and with minorties remember Presidnet Obama won over 70% of the Hispanic vote while Secretary  Clinton is struggling to hit even 60%. So Democrats really will have to assess what went wrong because again this isnt a new thing as the same thing happened in 2010 and 2014 but this time we re having a repeat of those years in a Presidential cycle .


Tapper: I fully agree with that assessment, the fact is the warning sign for Democrats was in 2010 but it was dismissed after their victory in 2012 and even after losing arguably worse than 2010 in 2014 they just pointed to midterm turnout but the fact is the more things look like it 2012 more had to do with the President's personal popularity and a badly run campaign across the board by the Republicans than any thing the Democrats have done.


Cooper: Alright we have another seante call to make and that is in New Hampshire - Republican Senator Kelly Ayotte will be reelected meaning unless their is a massive upset in the presidential results then the Republicans only need two more senate seats to retain control

Democratic Hold:  
Democratic Pickups: Illions

Republican Hold: North Carolina, New Hampshire
Republican Pickups:


9:23:

Blitzer: Stand by for a presidential projection and that is Governor John Kasich will carry the state of North Carolina and its 15 electoral votes




Kasich 216
Clinton 104

Blitzer: Now lets go over to John King at the magic wall and lets see how the paths to 270

King: Well at this moment Governor Kasich has a lot of paths because if you assign the states in the West both candidates are likely to win you get Governor Kasich with 243 Electoral votes and Secretary Clinton with 175 Electoral votes and now the fact is Governor Kasich is extremely likely to win Missouri so that puts him to 253 Electoral votes and then if Governor Kasich carries Pennslyvnaia a state he is overperforming Governor Romney almost everywhere we look then that gets him over the top. But even then he doesnt need Pennslyvania because if you give him Iowa and Colorado where he was up in the polls he gets to 268 Electoral votes and just New Hampshire puts him over heck even if he wins just the one electoral vote in Maine then he gets to 269 which is really all he needs given the fact Republicans control the house. This is without even counting Virginia where he is leading at the moment or any of the upper midwest so really at this moment he is heavily favored to win the Presidency.

Blitzer: How is Virginia going

King: This is a state going down to the nailbiter because if you look at Northern Virginia Secretary Clinotn is performing about as well as Obama did last time there but the problem is shes is underperforming the President in Richmond metro, Virginia beach and in rural Virginia and even in Northern Virginia its only about as she isnt matching Obama 2012 numbers in Fairfax, Loudon, Prince William. But I can say that if Virginia goes red this race is over


9:47:

Blitzer: CNN can now project that Missouri will be won by Governor Kasich



Kasich 226
Clinton 104

Borger: At this point its hard for me to see a pathway for victory for Secretary Clinton at all because again in the results we have gotten even from the upper midwest so she is underperforming Obama almost everywhere and at this point in my opinion the question is will the Democrats even get 200 electoral votes.

Van Jones: I still think we will win Virginia and get over 200 electoral votes but like you I see very little path to 270 for Secretary Clinton and I agree with a  point Dana made earlier that we have to reassess our party. The Republicans may hold 70 maybe 71 legislative chambers out of 99 come January and really I think that may be an even bigger defeat than whats happening nationally because many of the most critical issues are decided at that level and we are getting completely wiped out there and have been since 2010.

Cooper: We have another Senate Call to make and that is in Florida Lieutenant Governor Lopez-Cantera  will be the next senator from that state

Democratic Hold:  
Democratic Pickups: Illions

Republican Hold: North Carolina, New Hampshire, Florida
Republican Pickups:

Van Jones: Really at this point unless their is some miracle this guarantees Republicans will have the trifecta next January.
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« Reply #17 on: September 19, 2020, 01:51:01 AM »
« Edited: September 19, 2020, 02:04:45 AM by Old School Republican »

2016 CNN Election Night Coverage(Part 4):

10:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

Wolf Blitzer: Its 10 in the east and we can now project that Governor Kasich will carry the states of Montana, and Utah while we currently cant make a project in Nevada or Iowa.



Kasich 235
Clinton 104

Wolf Blitzer: Now lets go over to the Magic Wall and get updates of key states

King: Well first is Pennsylvania and while Secretary Clinton still leads it has dropped to less than a third of percentage of a point and really likely will be down by the next dump and the problem is after that there are more Republican areas to come in then Democratic so if Governor Kasich takes the lead after that dump we likely will call the state for him  

In Wisconsin again Secretary Clinton is underperforming President Obama everywhere with her getting under 70% in Dane County and other two thirds in Milwaukee County and given the fact that key bellwether counties like Crawford she is trailing by a point or two is not at all good news for her here. In Minnesota Jill Stein so far is getting over 3% which is making that state a nailbiter so really things arent going well for her at all.

Blitzer: Stand by as we have another projection to make and that is CNN can now project that New Hampshire will be won by Governor Kasich



Kasich 239
Clinton 104


Also in the senate we can now project that Senator Pat Toomey will be reelected giving the Republicans so far 49 seats and with Alaska and Idaho almost certainly to go for them they will very likely have the majority tonight

Democratic Hold:
Democratic Pickups: Illions

Republican Hold: North Carolina, New Hampshire, Florida, Pennsylvania
Republican Pickups:

Cooper : Do you think there is anything that could have been done to salvage this campaign Van

Van Jones : Not really , Secretary Clinton ran a very lackluster campaign and then the comey letter coming out in the last week I think really hurt us . If that letter didn’t come out I think you would see Governor Kasich getting say around 290-310 EV instead of the 330-350 EV that probably is the result now .


Cooper : what about any nominee , Bernie Sanders


Van Jones : Well I think with Bernie states like Minnesota, Michigan , and Maine would be in our column for sure so really then that would guarantee we win more electoral votes than Governor Romeny did last time

10:41:

Blitzer: Hold up we have a very major projection to make and that is Pennslyvania and its 20 very important electoral votes will be won by Governor Kasich



Kasich 259
Clinton 104

Tapper: That is probably the race because if you give Arizona to Governor Kasich which he is widely expected to win that will give him at 270 electoral votes , and as everyone knows that is the magic number .

Cooper: Daivd how are things going compared to your expectations

Axelrod: Well they are definitely going worse because while I didnt expect we would win I did believe we would surpass Romney's total of 206 from 4 years ago and thats likely not gonna occur so yah its a bad night though not nearly as a bad night as it was for the Republicans 8 years ago when they were reduced to 173 electoral votes, and were reduced to 40 senators.

Navarro: Well David it seems like the cycle continues where one party wins two terms and then the other party wins two and that has generally been the case since the early 1950s with the exception of course of the late 1970s and 1980s.

Blitzer: Ok lets go to John King at the magic wall to see how the other battleground states are doing

King: Well in Virginia 90% is in and while yes the Republicans 5.2 point margin will probably be reduced to around a couple points , unless the remaining  precients show the Democrats doing much in Northern Virginia than they are doing now i cant see it falling below that so Virginia at this point is likely to go Republican albeith narrowly and Virginia would register as 3 points more Democratic than the nation as a whole the largest such margin for a Democratic candidate since FDR back in 1944 so really a loss here more is about the national environment than anything that went wrong in Virginia.

In Michigan key Detriot suburbs are again not going well for Secretary Clinton as check out Oaklan county where she is only up 1 point a place where President Obama won by over 8 points 4 years ago , is losing Macomb county, and in Wayne county a place the President nearly won by 47 points 4 years ago is going by less than 40 points and currently she is trailing in Michigan and what I can tell you she needs to get that margin in Wayne to at least 41 42 points if she wants to carry this state.


For the Seante though Missouri looks very much like it will go down the wire and be less than a point so that might be one race where the overall national environment doesn't affect the race as much.


Borger: a win in Missouri could give the Democrats potentially a net gain tonight in a night going like this where Repblicans likely will get 252 to 254 house seats and Democrats will be facing their worst Presidential Defeat since 1988 and despite that they make gains in the Senate. Not only that but he very much could be a potential presidential in 2020 depending on how popular the Republicans are 4 years from now and if not then in 2024.

Van Jones: Yes I agree if he wins he could be a potential Presidnetial candidate either next time or for certainly in 2024 if the two term cycle continues.
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« Reply #18 on: September 19, 2020, 11:37:35 AM »

Kasich probably sweeps the rest of the battlegrounds aside from maybe NM.

Either 350-188 or 355-183.
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« Reply #19 on: September 19, 2020, 06:56:28 PM »
« Edited: September 20, 2020, 02:50:39 AM by Old School Republican »

2016 CNN Election Night Coverage(Part 5):

11:00:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

Blitzer: Stand by as we have some breaking news to project

Breaking News: John Kasich Elected President
Blitzer: CNN Can now project that John Kasich the Governor of Ohio will be the 45th President of the United States as we can now project that he will carry the states of Idaho and Arizona which moves him up from 259 electoral votes up to 274 which is more than the magic number required to be elected president of the United States. We can also project that Secretary Clinton will carry the states of California , Washington , and Hawaii



Kasich 274
Clinton 175

Tapper: John Kasich will also become the first president in 96 years to be from the state of Ohio and arguably he will be the President with the longest resume we have seen since Richard Nixon

Bash: Absoutely he was a long time congressman, then became the head of the budget chairman after being an intergeral part of the Republican sweep in 1994 which gave them the house majority for some time then in 2000 he ran for president and after losing retired from politics. In 2010 though he came back to run for Governor and now he has won the big won the Presidency of the United States

Borger: With the fact that it seems very likely he will win pretty decisively and the fact that he almost certainly will have both houses of congress , and given that experaicne you described its very possible we might see the most conservative adminstration we have seen since the 1920s as remember for Ronald Reagan he never had the house, and for George W Bush he barely won twice.


Cooper: Hold up for a moment as we have a major projection to make and that is

Breaking News: Republicans to Retain Control of United States Senate:
Cooper : And that is that the Republicans will retain control of the United States senate as in Wiscosnin we can project that Senator Ron Johnson will be reelected and along with a win in Idaho the Republicans now have 51 senate seats which means they will have control of the majority for another two years.

Democratic Hold:
Democratic Pickups: Illions

Republican Hold: North Carolina, New Hampshire, Florida, Pennsylvania
Republican Pickups:


John King: Yes and realistically it probably will last for the full years as if you look at the 2018 senate map you can see that Republicans only hold one senate in a battleground state, Nevada, while Democrats hold seats in many solid Red states so getting to 51 and with Alaska 52 means they will almost certainly have the majority for 4 more years though of course things can change dramatically as we saw in 2010.

Van Jones: Yes I agree , remember the Democrats won bigger than the Republicans are tonight in 2008 and that made them arrogant and we all saw what happened in 2010 so if Republicans dont take lessons from Democrats then , they very well may suffer the same fate two years from now

Navarro: I agree but Governor Kasich with all his years in polticis I doubt he will make that same mistake but we will have to see


Blitzer: John we have some more dumps from Virginia did that change anything

King: Well Governor Kasich's lead dropped but at this point i dont see how it can get any less than a 1.5 lead for the Governor when this night is over so I think we should be able to call that state soon

Blitzer: Well you are right as CNN now can project Virginia and its 13 electoral votes will be carried by Governor Kasich



Kasich 287
Clinton 175

Blitzer: What about Wisconsin now

King: Again Governor Kasich has a solid lead here and while yes Milwaukee county still has many votes to count and the fact that Secretary Clinton has not gotten Obama type numbers here is a problem given the shifts that rural parts of the state have given to Governor Kasich along with depressed turnout among younger voters and also a smaller margin among younger voters has not given her then numbers she needs in Dane County either. The same can be said about Michigan where again she is just basically tied in Oakland county, and losing Macomb by around 7 points so key suburban Detroit counties are not going well for her. In Minnesota you have seen a collapse from 4 years ago in the rural parts of the states and along with higher numbers for the Green Party candidate you again have a Republican winning here.



11:33:


Blitzer: CNN Can now project that Governor Kasich will carry the states of Wisconsin and Iowa adding another 18 electoral votes to his column making him the first Repblican to cross the 300 electoral mark since George HW Bush back in 1988



Kasich 303
Clinton 175

Bash: We also have some breaking news to report to you and that is that Secretary Clinton has called Governor Kasich and conceded the election. We are told that her camp had believed that she still had a chance in Pennslyanvia and Virginia but once that became clear that she didnt , she called the Governor and conceded the election to him

Blitzer: So now we can now call Governor Kasich, President-Elect Kasich and also even if Secretary Clinton won Pennslyvania and Virginia this Wiscosnin call means she no longer can get to 270 electoral votes

Tapper: Yes there is no possible way at this point she has a chance of winning and really the question now is what will President Obama do in the next 10 weeks to cement much of his legacy as possible as with a Republican trifecta things such as Obamacare likely will be replaced

Axelord: Though if you remember President-Elect on the campaign trail promised to veto a plan that would not lower prices or result in more people ensured so the Republicans wont have an easy time repealing Obamacare as if someone like Ted Cruz were in the White House. As a Democrat I am happy we have a Republican like Kasich in the White House rather than Cruz cause his plan is likely will be far more moderate than Senator Cruz's would have been

Borger: Do you think Senator Ted Cruz could have won though

Axelord : Given his majority unless he really messed up his Vice Presidential pick by picking someone like Carly Fiorina which accoridng to many reports he was considering picking he probably would win a Bush 2004 style victory.

Blitzer: Hold that thought for a second as CNN can now project that President-Elect Kasich will carry Colorado and its 9 electoral votes



Kasich 312
Clinton 175

Blitzer: Ok continue with those thoughts

Axelorod: So basically yah unless he chose a really bad vp pick hed have probably narrowly pulled it out

Bitzer: John how are the states in the West going

King : Well Nevada is going really well for President-Elect Kasich right now as he is within single digits in Clark County and while he is not doing well as President Bush did in 2004 he again is narrowing his margins there and along with leading in Washoe id say he is in good shape in that race although not as good shape as the Rpeublican senate candidate who is slightly outperforming him.

In New Mexico its really close and this is a state where Gary Johnson is doing well due to him being a former Governor There and he is even drawing from Democrats here so he could be a spoler here and in Oregon right now the map is coming like the 2010 Gubernatorial race there which was a narrow 2 point Democratic win but there is still a long way to go there .

11:53:


Cooper: CNN is ready to make another senate call and that is in Nevada we can now project that the Republican Congressman Joe Heck will be the next senator of the state

Democratic Hold:
Democratic Pickups: Illions

Republican Hold: North Carolina, New Hampshire, Florida, Pennsylvania
Republican Pickups: Nevada


Cooper: In Missouri and Colorado the Democrats hold leads but its close
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« Reply #20 on: September 19, 2020, 08:27:23 PM »

So, We could have anywhere from a 321-217 to a 363-175.
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« Reply #21 on: September 20, 2020, 02:45:42 AM »

2016 CNN Election Night Coverage(Part 6):

Hillary Clinton Concession Speech:

Clinton: Thank You Thank You, I just called President-Elect Kasich and congratulated him on winning the election. He ran an impressive campaign and has had a long record of service and now we must all root for his success as his success now will be all of our success. I look forward to working with the President-Elect over the next few months in ways to help unite our nation after this grueling and long campaign.

I want to thank my running mate Tim Kaine for being a great Vice Presidential nominee and I am sure he will continue to do a great job in the Senate as well. I want to thank my staff and volunteers who worked so hard for this nomination and I am sure you will do great things as well. I also want to thank my supporters and want to let you know not to give up because if you continue to fight for the polticis you deeply care about nobody can stop you from succeeding even if there will be losses on the way. Thank You May God Bless You and May God Bless America


Blitzer: As Secretary Clinton was giving her concession speech CNN was also able to project that the states of Michigan and Nevada will be won by Governor Kasich



Kasich 334
Clinton 175

President-Elect Kasich's Victory Speech:

Kasich: A Short Time Ago I spoke to Secretary Clinton and I congratulated her for running a well spirited campaign and for her long record of service to our nation and also spoke to her about how we can help bring our nation together after this long campaign. I also want to let her supporters know that even though you didnt vote for me that I will work hard every day to make you proud of your President because as your President I will be the President of all Americans.

Only together as one nation can we solve the problems we have from healthcare, our debt, and our economic future and I look forward to working with people of both parties to solving our nation's problems. We togehter can not only make our nation as great as we have in the past but make our nation greater than we ever has and I will work hard every day as President to make sure that happens.  I want to thank Senator Marco Rubio who was a great running mate and will be a great President and also want to thank everyone who worked and volunteered in this campaign because we wouldnt have won a single primary let alone this election without you.


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« Reply #22 on: September 20, 2020, 03:02:32 AM »

2016 CNN Election Night Coverage(Rest of Results):

1:08:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=0B_U0FyRwvU

CNN: While President-Kasich was giving his victory speech we could project that he will win the states of Minnesota and Alaska



Kasich 347
Clinton 175

John King: Again in Minnesota the key was the massive rural shift to the Republicans, and the Green Party doing much better than they did last time


1:35:

Some good news we can report to you for the Democrats is that in Colorado , Democratic Senator Michael Bennett will be reelected

Democratic Hold: Colorado
Democratic Pickups: Illions

Republican Hold: North Carolina, New Hampshire, Florida, Pennsylvania
Republican Pickups: Nevada


2:45:

Blitzer: CNN Can now project that in Maine , Secretary Clinton will win 3 of the 4 electoral votes  while President-Elect Kasich will win 1 of the 4



Kasich 348
Clinton 178

King: If Secretary Clinton is winning in Maine tonight she is probably winning Oregon too so she will get over the 180 electoral range.


3:37:

Blitzer: CNN can now make its final projections for the night and that is President-Elect Kasich will carry the state of New Mexico while Secretary Clinton will carry the state of Oregon



Kasich 353
Clinton 185


Cooper: And some good news for the Democrats in the Senate is that Jason Kander will defeat Republican senator in a huge upset to become the next seantor in the state. This means the Democrats will pickup a net gain of 1 seat in the senate tonight making the final composition 53 Republcians to 47 Democrats

Democratic Hold: Colorado
Democratic Pickups: Illions, Missouri

Republican Hold: North Carolina, New Hampshire, Florida, Pennsylvania
Republican Pickups: Nevada


Cooper: In the House we are now saying there will be 254 Republicans to 181 Democrats so a net gain of 7 seats for the Republicans in the House tonight


Blitzer: That makes the end of our coverage
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« Reply #23 on: September 20, 2020, 03:35:11 AM »

Results of 2020 Election :

Presidential Election Results:



Governor John Kasich(R-OH)/Senator Marco Rubio(R-FL) 353 51.5%
Former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton(D-NY)/Senator Tim Kaine(D-VA) 185 46.3%

States Decided By Under 5 Points

Maine: Hillary 47.9% Kasich 47.5%
New Mexico: Kasich 47.4% Hillary 46.9% Johnson 5.2%
Minnesota: Kasich 47.9% Hillary 47.1% Stein 3.3%

Oregon: Hillary 47.7% Kasich 46.3% Stein 5%
Michigan: Kasich 49.2% Hillary 47.6%
Virginia: Kasich 49.9% Hillary 48.1%
Coloado: Kasich 49.6% Hillary 47.3%
Wisconsin: Kasich 50.4 Hillary 47.1%
Pennslvania: Kasich 50.8% Hillary 47.2%



Senatorial Results:



Republicans 53(-1)
Democrats 47(+1)

House of Represenatives:

Republicans 254(+7)
Democrats 181(-7)


Guberntorial Results:

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« Reply #24 on: September 20, 2020, 03:51:10 AM »

President Kasich's Cabinet:

Secretary of State: Nikki Haley(R-SC)
Secretary of Treasury: Mitt Romney(R-UT)
Secretary of Defense: James Mattis(I-WA)
Attorney General: Brian Sandoval(R-NV)
Secretary of Interior: Greg Walden(R-OR)
Secretary of Agricutlure: Terry Branstad(R-IA)

Secretary of Commerce: Howard Shultz(D-WA)
Secretary of Labor: Mark Kirk(R-IL)
Secretary of Health and Human Services: Charlie Dent(R-PA)
Secretary of Housing and Urban Development: Tomás Regalado(R-FL)
Secretary of Transportation: Elaine Chao(R-KY)
Secretary of Education: Mitch Daniels(R-IN)

Secretary of Veterans Affairs: Jim Webb(D-VA)
Secretary of Homeland Security: Martha McSally(R-AZ)

Chief Of Staff: Ed Gillispie(R-VA)
National Security Advisor: H.R McMaster(I-PA)
UN Ambassdor: Kay Bailey Hutcinson(R-TX)
EPA Director: Arnold Schwarzenegger(R-CA)
OMB Director: Jim Renacci(R-OH)
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