Spanish elections and politics

[jaichind]

Sigma Dos poll for El Mundo:

22.6% PSOE
19.2% PP
18.8% C's
15.8% UP
12.9% Vox
10.7% Others

Yikes! I wouldn't be surprised if in the next few weeks/months Vox pulls ahead of UP, particularly because Iglesias will be 3 months, i think, out of the spotlight because of paternity leave.

But would this not lead to an ungovernability crisis after the next elections if these numbers hold on the premise that C will refuse to be in the same government as UP nor Vox.  Even a PSOE-PP grand alliance would not work.

What probably happens is a PP-C's minority govt with outside support from VOX, similar to Andalusia right now.

Would not VOX be signing their own death warrant if they did that on the national level ?  They would be seen as sell outs by their anti-establishment vote base for peanuts.  I would imagine that their vote base would demand that any support they give has policy impact I would hand hardly see C allowing to take place if they were in the coalition. 

[Velasco]

That poll points out a terrible possibility. I'm certain that a PP-Cs government propped up by Vox (with José Maria Aznar as grey eminence) means going back in fundamental rights, a regressive social agenda, neoliberal economics and the re-centralization of the state. The attempt to solve the crisis in Catalonia through the indefinite implementation of direct rule (via article 155) means the £mposition of a state of exception. That move would suppose rising tension and unrest, as well as fuelling separatism. In other words: right wing nationalism means democratic involution. Hard times are coming.

A coalition between the socialists and the orange populists would be less terrible,  but we are not even cose to that posdibility at this moment. The new year will be turbulent, that's for sure.

[Tender Branson]

Here is the full El Mundo poll, which shows the far-right VOX gaining rapidely:



If you look at their July results, it seems VOX is gaining across the board from all major parties.

[Tender Branson]

I think that the VOX party will get 15-20% in the EU elections in May.

Which European group are they likely to join ? ENF ?

[Umengus]

I think that the VOX party will get 15-20% in the EU elections in May.

Which European group are they likely to join ? ENF ?

earthquake if so.

Yes, probably ENF.

[Former President tack50]

I think that the VOX party will get 15-20% in the EU elections in May.

Which European group are they likely to join ? ENF ?

Actually, I think they've been on talks with both ECR and ENF. I'd say they eventually join ECR and not ENF, but I could be wrong

[Velasco]

I think it's quite irrelevant which European group will join Vox. I'd say that in all likelihood it will be far right and eurosceptic.

More interesting is the Vox blackmail to PP and Cs in Andalusia. In order to vote the investiture of PP candidate Juan Manuel Moreno, the far right party demands that blues and oranges remove public funds to support measures against gender based violence. They are included in the 90 point deal signed by PP and Cs. Vox is not willing to vote funds to protect women, because gender based violence is an invention of feminazis in the particular cosmovision of the far right party (Bolsonaro would support this). PP and Cs spokepersons rejected the Vox demands with varying degrees of firmness. However, Vox is crystal water here: if PP and Cs want to fight gender vased violence, they can negotiate with PSOE and AA. Either Vox or PP and Cs will have to give in, otherwise the investiture fails and Andalusia goes to a repetition of elections...

[Former President tack50]

To be honest, of all the things negotiations could get stuck on, I'm surprised it's gender violence of all things! I'd have expected stuff like centralization and closing down the regional TV broadcaster (Canal Sur) to be much bigger hurdles

Remember Cs originally had a similar position to Vox on this (back in 2015 they wanted to repeal the old gender violence law and replace it with an "family violence" law). And PP has also been critical of this in recient days. Then again most proposals on the matter pass unanimously (including the 2004 gender violence act) but still, I never expected this to be the biggest hurdle.

[Velasco]

To be honest, of all the things negotiations could get stuck on, I'm surprised it's gender violence of all things! I'd have expected stuff like centralization and closing down the regional TV broadcaster (Canal Sur) to be much bigger hurdles

Remember Cs originally had a similar position to Vox on this (back in 2015 they wanted to repeal the old gender violence law and replace it with an "family violence" law). And PP has also been critical of this in recient days. Then again most proposals on the matter pass unanimously (including the 2004 gender violence act) but still, I never expected this to be the biggest hurdle.

The regional government can't reverse the devolution of education, justice or healthcare. Another question is that a right wing nationalist government takes office after the next general elections. Then the new cabinet (led by Casado or Rivera) implements the state of emergency on Catalonia (article 155) and undertakes the re-centralization of Spain. The hypothetical right wing government would be  coalition of two parties (PP and Cs) propped up by a third party (Vox) that pushes further to the right. However the complete dismantling of regional autonomy is not possible without a constitutional reform and there's no quorum, so regional autonomy would be diminished but not abolished as Vox advocates. Vox also wanted to close the Andalusian TV and radio broadcaster, but Santiago Abascal and friends realized that it's necessary to reform the statute of autonomy and downgraded the demand to severe spending cuts. The belligerent attitude of Vox towards gender violence policies is not surprising at all, because the repeal of legislation was one of the main campaign banners. Back in the day PP voted to pass the law against gender violence and Cs receded due to heavy criticism during the 2015 campaign. Even though PP and Cs are not sympathetic towards feminists, they can't repeal legislation without paying a price because concern on gender based violence is widespread in society. On the other hand, there are more subtle ways to boycott a legislation than those advocated by Vox. For instance, the Rajoy administration lowered the funds drastically. However, the deal between PP and Cs says that measures against gender based violence will have adequate funds. The radical male chauvinists at Vox can't stand this.

[Former President tack50]

There isn't much data about this poll (does seem to be legit though), but if it's true, I'd be very worried about 2019:

La Nueva España for Asturias regional elections



https://asturias24horas.com/derecha-e-izquierda-muy-ajustadas/

By coalition:

PSOE-Podemos-IU: 50.0%
PP-Cs-Foro-Vox: 47.6%
PSOE-Cs: 37.7%

Seems like Foro Asturias (a PP split formerly led by Francisco Álvarez Cascos, development minister under Aznar) is dead in the long run. They might barely survive 2019, but they should really think about rejoining PP (or, considering Foro was originally to the right of PP, join Vox instead).

Vox of course quite high up and Podemos collapses. PP down, but less than expected. Cs rises quite a bit, but not that much, and is only a point above Vox! IU surprisingly stagnant, though I wonder how the Actua thing will work out in the end (IU-Asturias has traditionally been the most anti-Podemos branch, but their leader, Gaspar Llamazares, has split from IU and formed a new party).

As for government formation, the 2 blocks are close while the centrist block is very far from a majority. Asturias actually uses 3 constituencies and I can't find a seat allocation so we just have the numbers to work with (though it shouldn't affect the results that much in Asturias' case, but in other regions it would)

I'd rate Asturias as lean PSOE for now. It's probably one of the very few regions where they are still favoured after the Vox earthquake. However it's definitely not safe and I wouldn't be too surprised if PP ruled here as well.

[Former President tack50]

Tonight we will get a proper poll (or maybe even 2!). However, today there was a part of the poll released, which in my opinion is very interesting.

What should be the government's response to the Catalan problem?

39%: Apply article 155 again
20%: Propose a new statute of autonomy
14%: Keep talking but without concessions
9%: Do a referendum
18%: Undecided

Party crosstabs



In general, PSOE and Podemos are very split while PP, Cs and Vox are mostly unified on "155 4ever!"

[Former President tack50]

News in Andalucia: PP and Vox have finally reached an agrement.

This means that Vox will finally vote in favour of Juanma Moreno (PP) as premier of the region.

Interestingly, there has still not been a Vox-Cs direct negotiation, but instead 2 parallel negotiations: PP-Cs to form a coalition government, then PP-Vox (without Cs) to get their support.

In any case, barring a major upset PP will finally oust PSOE of this region.

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2019/01/09/spanish-conservatives-sign-deal-far-right-vox-party-govern-andalusia/

[Velasco]

The agreement between PP and Vox is not surprising at all. Vox came out with an extremist 19 point proposal in order to create a shock and get media attention (that's the Steve Bannon's handbook). PP claims Vox demands are "unacceptable", but it doesn't leave the table. Subsequently Vox gives up some of the most unrealistic and extravagant demands (repeal legislation against gender based violence, expel 52000 illegal immigrants) and both parties reach an agreement whitewashing part of the far right agenda. On the other hand, Cs rejects to negotiate with Vox and claims the separate agreement between PP and the far right is a "paper tiger". Vox leader Santiago Abascal mocks the oranges in Twitter calling them a "French party" pledging allegiance to Emperor Macron. Etcetera.

All these moves are largely tinkering.  Pure theater. The deal between the three parties on the right was never in peril. Andalusia is a huge haul and the cordon sanitaire was never on the table.  The Spanish Trumpists will condition the policies of the new Andalusian government because their 12 votes are neccesary to pass legislation.

The editor of eldiario.es Ignacio Escolar analyzed the small print of the agreement between PP and Vox (Spanish)

https://m.eldiario.es/escolar/letra-pequena-acuerdo-PP-Vox_6_855724436.html

[Oryxslayer]

Each new day brings worse results for PSOE. Clear PP-C's-Vox govt, no majority for any government that could be formed based on the Left or Left-center. Most notably, they have Vox winning something in mainland Spain, rather then simply being confined to the African enclaves.

[Velasco]

I'm not sure about its accuracy (I get the idea this 'panel' is based on on opinions, or something), but electomania is not a poll. Just saying.

On the other hand, the trend is clear. Spain seems to be leaning to the right and there is an extremist monentum. As long as the focus is on identity politics (Catalonia, immigration, whatever) the right wins. The only hope for the left is to turn the focus to social policies (raise of minimum wage, for instance) or to mobilize its base on the fear to the hard right. Let's see what happens on March 8, the Women's Day. Feminism is going to be one of the main bulwarks against the reactionaries. There were some demonstrations across Spain yesterday, protesting against the backward of women's rights advocated by Vox. I'm not sure about the best way to tackle the far right menace, but it's important that the voice of decent people is heard. Anyway I see pointless protesting against the presence of the far right in parliament (another question is protecting against its agenda), since extremists won seats because people voted for them. It'd be better to fight them with facts and arguments and turning out to vote.

The prospect of a right wing nationalist government propped up by Vox scares me. I'm deeply concerned about the future of my country under the right-wing tripartite. Certainly I will go to vote for Sánchez or the Left, even if they disappoint me.

[Former President tack50]

I'm not sure about its accuracy (I get the idea this 'panel' is based on on opinions, or something), but electomania is not a poll. Just saying.

On the other hand, the trend is clear. Spain seems to be leaning to the right and there is an extremist monentum. As long as the focus is on identity politics (Catalonia, immigration, whatever) the right wins. The only hope for the left is to turn the focus to social policies (raise of minimum wage, for instance) or to mobilize its base on the fear to the hard right. Let's see what happens on March 8, the Women's Day. Feminism is going to be one of the main bulwarks against the reactionaries. There were some demonstrations across Spain yesterday, protesting against the backward of women's rights advocated by Vox. I'm not sure about the best way to tackle the far right menace, but it's important that the voice of decent people is heard. Anyway I see pointless protesting against the presence of the far right in parliament (another question is protecting against its agenda), since extremists won seats because people voted for them. It'd be better to fight them with facts and arguments and turning out to vote.

The prospect of a right wing nationalist government propped up by Vox scares me. I'm deeply concerned about the future of my country under the right-wing tripartite. Certainly I will go to vote for Sánchez or the Left, even if they disappoint me.

For what's worth, even though electomanía is far from a traditional pollster, they were one of the most accurate pollster for the Andalusian elections which everyone got wrong.

They've certainly proven themselves IMO, even if their methodology might be somewhat questionable. Then again they performed polls after the ban, which allowed them to register the last minute Vox surge.

As for everything else yes, the left is heading towards certain defeat, somewhere between the scale of 2000 and 2011. The only silver lining is that Cs might prop up some conservative PSOE premiers (Fernández Vara of Extremadura and García Page of Castille-La Mancha easily come to mind) even if there's a right wing majority and that the right is divided, which hurts it overall, keep in mind that if the right was united under one party (as in the old 2 party system days) 50% would set a new record for a single party, probably beating González's record of 202 seats and 48%; and maybe giving them a 3/5 constitutional majority.

Meanwhile most seat allocations give them "only" around 180-185 seats, which is an overall majority but very far from a 3/5 majority (210). Some even put them outside a majority!

As for the reaction, I don't think feminism will be the only (or even the best IMO) reaction. Other parts of Vox's platform are more controversial for me, like their anti EU stance (Spain is still very much pro EU I think and hope) or their hate for autonomous communities (though there's certainly a lot of people who do want them gone)

[Velasco]

I think electomania is not a pollster, neither "traditional" nor anything else. I remember years ago that site was a place where election junkies, partisan hacks and some trolls discussed the polls released in Spain (and sometimes international polls, too). I don't know which "methodology" they use (average predictions made by members, pethaps?), but in any case they are not professionals. Maybe they are good making predictions or they are occasionally spotted on, maybe they have access to data from actual pollsters during the last week ban. I don't know. Just saying that it's important to make the distinction between polls and predictions regardless "methodology" (average polling, intuition or whatever). I know that GAD3 (an actial pollster) was working during the last days of the Andalusian campaign and recorded the Vox surge.

The fight for women's rights is going to be very important in the following months, since Vox has made anti-feminism one of its main battle horses. Like it or not, the feminist movement is one of the most important vectors of democracy in the present time.

[bigic]

Juanma Moreno has just been elected the President of Andalucia with the votes of his PP (26) in coalition with Cs (21) with support of Vox (12) - 59 out of 109 votes.

[Velasco]

Juanma Moreno has just been elected the President of Andalucia with the votes of his PP (26) in coalition with Cs (21) with support of Vox (12) - 59 out of 109 votes.

This is the beginning of a new era. It's a tragedy that change in Andalusia comes together the influence of the xenophobic and misogynist Vox. The deal between PP, Cs and the far right was not the only alternative. It's also a shame that career politician Susana Diaz has not resigned yet, as she is the main obstacle to a much needed renewal of the Andalusian PSOE. As for the fake liberals led by Albert Rivera, the opportunistic nature of Cs is portrayed by its association to the likes of Le Pen (take due note of your allies, Beautiful Flawless Macron).

The English version of El País says that Vox made its "maiden speech" yesterday at regional parliament. Isn't it amusing the use of the word "maiden" given the vocal anti-feminism of said party? The amusement, however, ends abruptly when you read the quotes of Francisco Serrano

https://elpais.com/elpais/2019/01/16/inenglish/1547639931_037405.html

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[Skye]

Interesting how they show C's winning Madrid and Valladolid. It's such a far cry from the 2016 election PP still wins my home province (Palencia).

[Former President tack50]

or their hate for autonomous communities (though there's certainly a lot of people who do want them gone)

Do elaborate.

Well, Spain while it's not a fully federalized country it does have a very high level of devolution, with its 17 autonomous communities acting as sort of federal entities but not quite.

One of Vox's star proposals is to basically abolish this and make Spain a centralized country, like say France or England. To quote them directly

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In all fairness, getting rid of autonomous communities as Vox proposes, or even limiting their powers in many cases requires either:

a) A constitutional reform. Abolishing them entirely actually requires the "severe" procedure and not the standard one, it's one of the more protected parts of the constitution

b) The autonomous communities themselves voluntarily relinquishing power. This requires regional supermajorities in most cases (usually 3/5 or 2/3) as it requires reforming (or more precisely, repealing I guess) the "statute of autonomy", sort of its "state constitution". Then the national Congress has to ratify said reform (by an overall majority). Finally in some cases a referendum is required.

So it's probably not happening any time soon.

It does poll fairly well though. According to CIS (a thrash pollster now, but they ask this question every month) 21% of Spaniards support abolishing autonomous communities completely while a further 10% wants their competences cut down.

Worth noting that 13% want more competences (not less) and 11% wants autonomous communities to have the right of self-determination so it's a polarizing issue. Finally 39% want to keep them as they are now and 7% is undecided.

Then again considering this is CIS we are talking about, though the numbers do seem plausible overall.

[Velasco]

The CIS is still good collecting data, regardless the questionable methodology of the vote estimations. Pedro Sánchez made a mistake appointing his close friend Félix Tezanos as the CIS chief pollster. Tezanos is qualified as he is sociologist, but he is also a partisan hack and is destroying the credibility of the sociological institute. In any case the raw data is as good as always and I do give credibility to those figures.  Supporters of re-centralization (either unitary state or less devolution) are increasing and the trend is not new.

As for the Vox proposal to abolish regional autonomy, as said before it's unworkable due to lack of quorum for constitutional reform. However PP is adbovating the re-devolution to central government of healthcare, education and justice (the first step towards the unitary state in the Vox handbook). Cs likely would support re-devolution, so it's possible that a nationalist right wing government will cut devolved powers and regional autonomy. Maybe Aznar or the right wing parties have spme plan already (for sure they have re-devolution mind). PNV is particularly scared with the prospect of a central administration attacking the special tax system of the Basque Country. That's ine of the reasons why the Basque Nationalist Party tried unsuccessfully to moderate Catalan separatists and prevent that Puigdemont was doing stupid things.

[Velasco]

The CIS is an institute of sociological research depending on the Spanish government that conducts polls on a varied range of issues, including elections. The CIS fieldwork is based on face-to-face interviews and is very appreciated by sociologists, pollsters and electoral analysts. Spanish particularity.

[Velasco]

The Mayor of Madrid Manuela Carmena and Iñigo Errejon released this morning a joint letter announcing their alliance. Errejon will run as candidate in the region of Madrid under the Carnena's banner Más Madrid ("More Madrid") instead of the Unidos Podemos banner. Apparently this move has caught Podemos leadership unaware. Currently the negotiations between Carmena and Podemos to put together the list for the municipal elections are stalled. There are differences between Errejon and the Podemos and IU leaderships on the composition of the regional list. Errejon wants his ally Clara Serra (Podemos spokeswoman in the regional parliament) as number two, while the party leaderships agreed that the number two was Sol Sánchez (IU). Podemos keader Pablo Iglesias and Iñigo Errejon began distancing themselves in 2016, due to their differences on the alliance between Podemos and IU. The rift deepened in the party convention held the following year, when Iglesias supporters took control of the party. Today is the 5th anniversary of Podemos.

[Velasco]

Podemos is broken. Pablo Iglesias says he's disappointed with Errejon and Carmena. Podemos leader announced that his party will support Carmena in ther bid for re-election as Mayor of Madrid, but Unidos Podemos will run against Más Madrid and Errejon in the regional elections.