Spanish elections and politics

[Tender Branson]

37% OF SPAIN ELECTORATE VOTED AS OF 2PM, PRELIMINARY DATA SHOW

2015: 37.03%
2011: 37.88%

Total turnout in 2011: 69%

[Tender Branson]

My predictions:

Water 27.5%
Strawberries 21.6%
Aubergines 19.9%
Oranges 15.2%
Tomatoes 3.9%

[Tender Branson]

I wonder if the far right VOX will get 10% in Andalusia this Sunday ...

They are definitely rising fast in the polls and could establish a launching pod for the EU elections and a national parliament presence.

[Tender Branson]

My prediction for tomorrow:

30.2% PSOE (-5.2%)
19.5% PP (-7.2%)
19.3% Forward Andalusia (-2.5%)
18.7% C's (+9.4%)
  7.9% VOX (+7.4%)
  1.6% PACMA (+0.8%)
  2.8% Others (-2.7%)

Turnout: 68.6% (+6.3%)

[Tender Branson]

Velasco:

Where can one find official results for todays regional election in Andalusia ?

When are the polls closing ?

Is there an "exit poll" and where ?

[Tender Branson]

Thanks.

It seems this is the official results page:

https://www.resultadoseleccionesparlamentoandalucia2018.es/Inicio

"Avances de participación" means turnout. Turnout reports will come at 2pm and 6pm.

"Resultados provisionales" means preliminary results.

[Tender Branson]

Ugh ... only 56% will vote.

That is disappointing. I thought turnout would increase by quite a bit.

[Tender Branson]

GAD3 poll, not an exit poll:



Coalition scenarios: (55 for majority)

PP+C's: 41-47 seats
PP+C's+Vox: 49-57 seats
PSOE+C's: 55-59 seats
PSOE+AA: 54-58 seats

If this were only the actual results ... it would be close to my prediction.

But the actual results will likely look different.

[Tender Branson]

Btw:

Is PP+Cs+VOX even possible if the numbers are there for them ?

Or has either PP or Cs already ruled out a coalition with VOX ?

[Tender Branson]

Cs candidate Juan Marín said that his party would not make deals with VOX, because it's eurosceptic and diesn't share orange values. However, Marín said that he would accept the Vox support in exchange for nothing. In other words, if they have the numbers the parties of the right will make an arrangement.

Low turnout, far right rise. Nightmarish scenario.  I hope the results mitigate the shock, but the trend is clear. Anti-politics, chaos, conflict. Very bad prospect.

Not always. In some places like Austria or the US, the far-right/Trump-GOP also does well in high-turnout elections.

And while Austria ÖVP-FPÖ 1.0 between 2000-2006 and Trump/GOP was/is indeed chaotic and creating conflict, the current ÖVP-FPÖ government 2.0 has learned a lot and is now one of the best-performing and most stable governments in Europe.

It's all a matter of how competent the far-right parties in charge of the government are and how much they are willing to work on solutions for the people who elected them ...

[Tender Branson]

Woah, huge rightwing majority (59 to 50 seats) in this former leftwing stronghold ...

[Tender Branson]

Am I wrong to classify VOX‘s stunning success today with migrants storming Andalusian beaches and Sanchez‘s open-arms policy ala Merkel ?

[Tender Branson]

With almost 100% in, the Right is now at 50% and has gained 13.5% compared with 2015 and maintain their 59-50 seat advantage ...

[Tender Branson]

Here is the full El Mundo poll, which shows the far-right VOX gaining rapidely:



If you look at their July results, it seems VOX is gaining across the board from all major parties.

[Tender Branson]

I think that the VOX party will get 15-20% in the EU elections in May.

Which European group are they likely to join ? ENF ?