Austrian Elections & Politics 3.0 - Parliamentary Election: Oct. 15

[Tender Branson]

Strolz (NEOS) and Pilz call the mudslinging a disgrace and want the discussion shifted back to the really important issues.

[Tender Branson]

This debate is fu**ing awesome.

The candidates just got beer glasses put onto their debate podiums, filled along the size of their proposed tax cuts.

Strolz from NEOS already started drinking ...

[Tender Branson]

Pilz is really good in this debate ...

PS: it's a shame that none except Strolz (NEOS) emptied their beer glass.

[Tender Branson]

Pilz in full Sanders/Melenchon mode right now.

"The Rich need to be taxed by a higher and fairer share."

"Companies like Google have 150 million in sales in Austria and only pay 30.000€ in taxes. Tax them fairly to lower the burden on the working class."

[Harlow]

This debate is fu**ing awesome.

The candidates just got beer glasses put onto their debate podiums, filled along the size of their proposed tax cuts.

Strolz from NEOS already started drinking ...

Beer in a political debate?? I shudder to think what Trump would have done in such a situation.

[TheSaint250]

This debate is fu**ing awesome.

The candidates just got beer glasses put onto their debate podiums, filled along the size of their proposed tax cuts.

Strolz from NEOS already started drinking ...

Beer in a political debate?? I shudder to think what Trump would have done in such a situation.

He would’ve rejected it probably since he doesn’t drink.

[Tender Branson]

I sent in my postal ballot today.

To get this thing over with, I finally voted for Kern/SPÖ incl. 3 preference votes (which are largely meaningless) for 3 female SPÖ-candidates on the regional/state/federal level.

I also talked with my brother today and he told me he's voting for Kurz.

[rob in cal]

   Tender, which party has your brother supported in the past?
    Also, would it be considered a  Grosse Koalition if its OVP FPO and FPO is about equal to SPO in votes, or is that term only for the historically two big parties?

[Tender Branson]

  Tender, which party has your brother supported in the past?
    Also, would it be considered a  Grosse Koalition if its OVP FPO and FPO is about equal to SPO in votes, or is that term only for the historically two big parties?

I actually have two older brothers and an older sister.

The older of the two usually votes for the ÖVP (nothing unusual considering he's living in conservative Tyrol ... ), while the other brother usually doesn't vote at all. I remember him only voting in 2014 in the mayoral election (the ÖVP candidate). My sister usually votes SPÖ. My mum is a Strache/Hofer/FPÖ-voter. My father used to be a Social Democrat earlier on, then voted for Jörg Haider.

That term is only for SPÖVP, or ÖVPSPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

Salzburg City reports record postal ballot requests.

But, but ... the FPÖ told us absentee ballots are evil ... !

[Tender Branson]

Linz City is also reporting record postal ballot requests so far and there's still 1.5 weeks left to request one.

The 14.000 requested so far are almost the same amount that were cast in last years Presidential elections.

It's probably going to be some 20.000-22.000 in the end.

I expect 800.000 to 1 million requested for Austria as a whole, or every 7th eligible voter.

I also expect turnout somewhere between 76-82% this time.

[Tender Branson]

Austria's face cover ban will take effect on Sunday (October 1).

Police will enforce the law vigorously here and ask fully covered women to take down their veil.

Women forced to remove the veil on day one of Austrian burqa ban

Muslim women in Austria were forced by police to remove their facial coverings on Sunday, as an anti-burqa law came into effect.

The so-called 'burqa ban' prohibits facial coverings including niqabs and burqas, and also places restrictions on surgical masks, ski masks and clown make-up worn in public.

A woman wearing a niqab facial veil, which only leaves the eyes uncovered, was being told to remove her veil by two police officers in Zell am See, a city south of Salzburg.





http://www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2017/10/01/austrian-burqa-ban-comes-force

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There are also police stationed at airports, who will not allow entrance to Austria to veiled people coming out of planes.

[Tender Branson]

The 2026 Winter Olympic Games application ballot initiative in the state of Tyrol, which will be voted on together with the parliamentary election, currently leads by a 52-36 margin:

https://www.meinbezirk.at/land-tirol/lokales/exklusive-umfrage-mehrheit-fuer-olympische-winterspiele-2026-in-tirol-d2269036.html

[Tender Branson]

The Interior Ministry has invited OSCE election observers (a longstanding tradition).

The OSCE will send a team of 6 observers and South Korea will send a team of 8:

http://diepresse.com/home/innenpolitik/nationalratswahl/5296036/Sechskoepfiges-OSZETeam-beobachtet-Nationalratswahl

Meanwhile, the worst is over again for the SPÖ. The scandal that broke over the weekend has worn off a bit.

[Tender Branson]

I was notified that my postal ballot arrived yesterday at the district election commission.

Sometimes, stuff gets lost at the Austrian Post, so I made sure it arrived ...

[Tender Branson]

Eveline Steinberger-Kern, wife of Chancellor Kern and a successful business woman, strikes back with a powerful Facebook video, attacking Kurz and primarily Ö24 tabloid for character assassination attempts against her:



http://derstandard.at/2000065405880/Kanzler-Gattin-greift-Kurz-und-Medien-an

I agree. Dealing with the issues that are important to voters is more important than the unimportant Silberstein "scandal" that the ÖVP, FPÖ and Ö24 tabloid are using to smear the Kerns.

[Tender Branson]

And just as I write the above, I found the latest poll by the (smearing) Ö24 tabloid:



http://www.oe24.at/oesterreich/politik/wahl2017/1-Umfrage-nach-SP-Affaere-Absturz-fuer-Kern/302632896

Unsurprisingly, the SPÖ drops to a record low. Not sure if I'm buying these numbers. I'll wait for the final surveys from the other pollsters this weekend.

[rob in cal]

   Usually the combined OVP FPO vote is somewhere in the mid to high 50's over the last few years or so.  61% seems a little high in the new poll.

[Tender Branson]

   Usually the combined OVP FPO vote is somewhere in the mid to high 50's over the last few years or so.  61% seems a little high in the new poll.

True. The SPÖ will take a hit, but probably not down to 22%. I'd say 24-26%.

Also, the Guardian weighs in:

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2017/oct/05/negative-campaign-sites-scandal-shakes-up-austrian-election-race

[Tender Branson]

Here's a recap of recent events:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Meanwhile, the Standard/Falter newspapers report about a meeting with a Silberstein worker and Kurz's communications chief in July, in which the Kurz-associate offered 100.000€ for internal information about the SPÖ's campaign. In a second meeting, the Kurz-ÖVP offered the former SPÖ-campaign worker to be their "spy". The ÖVP denies the reports.

http://derstandard.at/2000065417586/Silberstein-Mitarbeiter-Kurz-Sprecher-bot-100-000-Euro

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In my opinion, this silly "dirty campaigning" in the final stages only helps one party: the FPÖ.

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ is going to sue the ÖVP and the ÖVP will sue the SPÖ ...

Ridiculous.

I'm going to revise up my prediction for the FPÖ by quite a bit because of this. SPÖVP down.

The recent events only help the FPÖ and hurt SPÖVP and turnout.

[Tender Branson]

Wow ... this is the latest FPÖ-ad:

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=5nCOaE4XMbY

Think what you want about the FPÖ, but they did not only run an almost flawless campaign but they are also hitting SPÖVP and now especially Kurz with some funny ads.

While SPÖ and ÖVP are currently destroying each other (see above), the FPÖ can actually come out as the big winner next week ...

[Lord Halifax]

The SPÖ is going to sue the ÖVP and the ÖVP will sue the SPÖ ...

Ridiculous.

I'm going to revise up my prediction for the FPÖ by quite a bit because of this. SPÖVP down.

Could FPÖ finish first?

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ is going to sue the ÖVP and the ÖVP will sue the SPÖ ...

Ridiculous.

I'm going to revise up my prediction for the FPÖ by quite a bit because of this. SPÖVP down.

Could FPÖ finish first?

Don't know ... but it cannot be ruled out anymore with the latest events.

The question is how many "newly added" right-wing people will stick with Kurz on election day (but this was always the big question).

The FPÖ is doing a really good job at portraying Kurz as a Spätzünder ("late bloomer") or ("parrot"), who's only copying things that Strache said for the past 15 years.

Things were fine for Kurz until about 1 week ago, when he was able to talk about how he closed the Balkans Route and stopped immigration. Now with the Silberstein scandal hitting the SPÖ (and also the ÖVP to some extent), this is the major news story. And if voters associate both the SPÖ and Kurz (who's support is built on a bubble) with scandal, it is good news for the FPÖ (and maybe to a smaller extent the other opposition parties).

Plus: Like the AfD, the FPÖ has gained 2% in the poll average over the past month.

[Tender Branson]

New "Market" poll for the "Standard" newspaper (Oct. 2-3, n=813, phone + online, MoE = +/- 3.5%):



https://derstandard.at/2000065491234/Kanzlerpartei-mit-schwachen-Daten

Compared with their last poll a month ago, the SPÖ loses 3% - while FPÖ, Pilz and Greens gain 1%.