2020 Presidential Election Results & Exit Polls commentary thread

[swf541]

From the way I look at it, R+4 would prob go down to the wire, R+5 would be a much more likely Trump win in FL and then R+3 or less is bad for Trump.

And I believe as others have mentioned dem turnout should increase later in the day.

And again people be ignoring the existence of NPA's is highly annoying.

[swf541]

All these stressful takes are totally forgetting that Biden is preforming extremely well with independents in the polling

LOL this is Florida.

It shouldn’t even have been a tossup. NC I can understand but anyone who thinks Biden is touching FLA or GA really needs... a diffrent hobby

What the f--k are you on about, Florida clearly does not care much about the national enviroment see past elections in Florida.....

Not much can be extrapolated to and from it, it's fairly unique as reasons you clearly should know based upon how long you've been here for.

[swf541]

A nifty tool, this

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323636301334282242

I assume this will be updated regularly?

[swf541]

All these stressful takes are totally forgetting that Biden is preforming extremely well with independents in the polling

Nobody is forgetting that and even if someone did, there are like 10 of you guys to remind them.

Broward looks better now for Dems but Pinellas and Palm Beach are still very bad. Also, reps doing well in Duval

According to St Pete the turnout atm is matching their polling in Penallas

So no its not bad for dems, actually if their turnout does the normal patterns and increases as the day goes on they may actually be in a fairly good position.

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323653155138265089?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw%...

Broward Dems showing up.....

[swf541]

All these stressful takes are totally forgetting that Biden is preforming extremely well with independents in the polling

LOL this is Florida.

It shouldn’t even have been a tossup. NC I can understand but anyone who thinks Biden is touching FLA or GA really needs... a diffrent hobby

Oh my god, I hope you cry when Biden wins GA and FL

In that fantasy land I’d cry tears of joy but .. if you think that’s happening you genuinely need a new hobby. I can see TX or NC happening if Biden pulls out some miracle. But GA and FLA are GONE.

On election day 2012 the Obama campaign said that they believed Romney was going to win FL and they though they state was gone for them but as the votes came in on election night Obama pulled off an upset and surprisingly ended up winning a state that nobody expected him to

my main point is
knowbody truly knows what Florida or some of these other states are going to do until all the votes are counted

Exactly, we can extrapolate from the data we get for it but there isnt much value in arguing over it or going full doomer over it, besides annoying others

[swf541]

Ya'll gonna drive yourselves insane

I mean I will too, but still

It wouldnt be atlas otherwise

[swf541]

The frustrating thing is that it was clearly explained since EV that the key to winning Florida is to keep the electorate under R+4 by getting higher Dem turnout then 2016 which is what seems to be happening. It’s gonna be close as always but nothing so far really points away from a Biden +2 victory which is what the average is

Exactly

[swf541]

The big unknown about Florida right now is Miami Dade.  Dems have A LOT of room for growth there.  High Election Day turnout there would seem to benefit them at this point.  Anyone know what's going on with turnout there?

Nothing from Miami Dade so far today it seems..........

[swf541]

The big unknown about Florida right now is Miami Dade.  Dems have A LOT of room for growth there.  High Election Day turnout there would seem to benefit them at this point.  Anyone know what's going on with turnout there?

Nothing from Miami Dade so far today it seems..........

Given how every other county is voting today, it doesn't seem farfetched to think Miami-Dade's ED vote has been R-leaning so far.

You are extrapolating off about one hour of data when we're already seeing the R margin in day of vote falling......

[swf541]

To be honest I'm surprised everyone is so focused on Florida when Pennsylvania will hands down be the most important state on election night  

Trump could end up winning FL but if he than turns around and loses Pennsylvania
this election would basically be over and Biden is most likely going to be our next president

No data in PA to argue over

[swf541]

What is the point in posting FL-at-large totals when it doesn't even include like 5/6 counties, including *MIAMI* for gods sake? It's an incomplete picture.

Also, for 50th time, it's truly astonishing to see people keep acting as if the NPA vote is just not there and simply going off of D/R totals

It's completely insane

Also insane to watch people completely ignore polling for areas and instead just shriek about partisan numbers.

[swf541]

https://mobile.twitter.com/MadisonWIClerk/status/1323606947493457921

Now thats an amazing return rate

[swf541]

75K Reps lead now

Slowing waaaay down. Love the see it. And that’s WITHOUT Miami Dade and Sarasota.

Yep, quite good news

Also I wish people would post the total vote totals with percentages with this data, the higher turnout the more you need a larger margin to reach some of the desired partisan ID rates for both sides

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1323665955629793280

Literally who?

Isnt even verified

[swf541]

If Guam does swing hard to Trump, what would that signal this cycle?

Perhaps the trend that's been speculated on thus far - that the minority gap is shrinking.

But doesn't Guam have a history of voting Republican in the past?

Guam usually votes for the winner of the Electoral College (except 2016).

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/United_States_presidential_straw_polls_in_Guam

They also voted heavily for Carter in 1980

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/DaNumbersGuy/status/1323665955629793280

Literally who?

Isnt even verified

Don't embarass yourself. It's a guy which maps people here posted when early voting started.

And I again ask, literally who and what makes his models legitimate

I could go cook up a model in 5 minute and declare whatever the hell I want

[swf541]

Uh oh, apparently Gillespie has caught up to Northam and the race is really close!

Ah memories

[swf541]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% tunrout   

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

Yep, they need to push a lot more though to be in a comfortable state.  And this assumes the remaining counties arent going to eat into the margin or that later day voting remains heavily gop dominated.

[swf541]

Is that including the Miami-Dade numbers?

No

[swf541]

Miami-Dade voted 20 points more R than Broward in both the early vote and the vote by mail. I don't see why it wouldn't be close to that on election day too, which would put Miami-Dade at about R+15 today.

Because there is more Dem votes to turnout and they did better in the closing days of EV.

That and minority voters are likelier to vote on election day then early voting, especially mail in voting.

[swf541]

City of Madison has counted 12.85% of all absentees in the first 2 hours.  On this pace all absentees will be counted by a little after 10 pm

Can we extrapolate this pace to PA?

Probably not but I wish

[swf541]

View of Florida at start of day:

Dem  3,548,112 or 66.6% turnout   +115,416
Rep   3,432,696 or 66.4% turrout    

At 11am (without Sarasota, Miami-Dade, Seminole)

Dem 3,705,868  or 69.9%       -57,563
Rep   3,763,431  or 72.8%

Strong Rep push this morn

That margin is a likely Biden win, right, given the Indy split and crossovers? How much do Rs need to be ahead to feel good?

Earlier in this thread some estimated at 400k for the gop to feel comfortable idk if accurate.

[swf541]

Is it likely that Dems win the Election Day vote in Miami-Dade because Republicans over performed in early voting there?  And because the constituencies there might not trust mail ballots or early voting?

Its def possible

[swf541]

https://twitter.com/umichvoter99/status/1323678484493983746?s=20

Whew boy the GOP turnout is starting to fade hard.

And still no Miami and others still dunno how accurate this will be without them

But yep, def signs the normal turnout patterns on election day are holding so far