Who will win the Wisconsin Republican Primary?

[TJ in Oregon]

While this seems logically to be a very anti-_trump state, it also seems like one where Cruz and Kasich would get in each other's ways a great deal. So another win for the tiny hands.

This is a very important point. Also here was the last Marquette poll. Should be noted that this was before Super Tuesday.

Trump 30%
Rubio 20%
Cruz 19%
Kasich 8%
Carson 8%

This is a reason to believe Cruz will win it. He should get the majority of the Rubio vote, and while Trump will have risen nationally by that point, he'll get less than his 38% nationally in Wisconsin. It should be low enough for Cruz to pull it off. Trump will do better in the Fox Cities and rurals. Cruz will do best in the MKE suburbs, where half the Republicans prefer Bernie Sanders to Trump.

[TJ in Oregon]

I don't understand why anyone would think Trump has a prayer here?

The idea is that Kasich should do well in Wisconsin and split the anti-Trump vote evenly enough for Trump to win with ~35%.

[TJ in Oregon]

I don't understand why Wisconsin is supposed to be not naturally favorable turf for Trump. Could someone spell it out for me?

It's full of communitarian upper midwestern 'good governance' types who like people who are nice and don't like people who are brash. The Republican demographics tend to be more on the upper socio-economic status end of things in Wisconsin as well. The Wisconsin union voters tend to be more Democratic than in other midwestern states.