Who will win the Wisconsin Republican Primary?
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  Who will win the Wisconsin Republican Primary?		 « previous next »
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Question: What do you think?
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Donald Trump		  
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Ted Cruz		  
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John Kasich		  
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Author Topic: Who will win the Wisconsin Republican Primary?  (Read 4168 times)
Former Senator Haslam2020
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« on: March 17, 2016, 06:06:35 PM »
Who do you think will win the state's primary?
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Young Conservative
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« Reply #1 on: March 17, 2016, 06:07:44 PM »
Ted Cruz. I think John Kasich will drop out before
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Holmes
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« Reply #2 on: March 17, 2016, 06:11:57 PM »
Based on how Trump did in the bordering counties in Illinois, Michigan and Iowa, and his strength in Democratic Midwestern cities, I would say he's favored. But Cruz also has a good chance. He performed well in the Minnesota caucus, but it is a caucus after all so it's hard to extrapolate.
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PeteB
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« Reply #3 on: March 17, 2016, 06:17:28 PM »
This is one state where all three have a chance. Would like to see some new polls before predicting anything though!
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #4 on: March 17, 2016, 06:20:03 PM »
Like Iowa and Minnesota, I expect Wisconsin is pretty anti-Trump, but I still expect a close three way race with Trump having an advantage.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #5 on: March 17, 2016, 06:20:43 PM »
Cruz is at a pretty distinct advantage, imo.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: March 17, 2016, 06:22:33 PM »
« Edited: March 17, 2016, 06:25:29 PM by Gass3268 »
Trump will win narrowly. Cruz and Kasich are going to divide the anti-Trump vote, especially in the Milwaukee suburbs. Trump is going to dominate in the Fox Cities, Milwaukee County, and in Northern Wisconsin. Also don't forget it's a totally open primary and an early vote state, both points have always helped Trump.
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Maxwell
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« Reply #7 on: March 17, 2016, 06:24:22 PM »
I'm surprised as many people are voting Kasich as they are.
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ElectionsGuy
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« Reply #8 on: March 17, 2016, 06:30:01 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 17, 2016, 06:22:33 PM
Trump will win narrowly. Cruz and Kasich are going to divide the anti-Trump vote, especially in the Milwaukee suburbs. Trump is going to dominate in the Fox Cities, Milwaukee County, and in Northern Wisconsin.

Why do you think Trump will do good in the Fox cities? Aren't those traditionally Republican, usually bad areas for Trump? I do think you're right about Milwaukee County (mostly the city) and especially northern Wisconsin.

And Maxwell, why does Cruz have a distinct advantage? Maybe you're thinking he dominates the Milwaukee suburbs, but I would think Kasich could do good here and share that anti-Trump vote with Cruz (very high income, high education conservatives, not uber religious, etc.).

One thing is for sure, we need more polling in Wisconsin, especially a Marquette poll!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: March 17, 2016, 06:35:01 PM »
Quote from: ElectionsGuy on March 17, 2016, 06:30:01 PM
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 17, 2016, 06:22:33 PM
Trump will win narrowly. Cruz and Kasich are going to divide the anti-Trump vote, especially in the Milwaukee suburbs. Trump is going to dominate in the Fox Cities, Milwaukee County, and in Northern Wisconsin.

Why do you think Trump will do good in the Fox cities? Aren't those traditionally Republican, usually bad areas for Trump? I do think you're right about Milwaukee County (mostly the city) and especially northern Wisconsin.

And Maxwell, why does Cruz have a distinct advantage? Maybe you're thinking he dominates the Milwaukee suburbs, but I would think Kasich could do good here and share that anti-Trump vote with Cruz (very high income, high education conservatives, not uber religious, etc.).

One thing is for sure, we need more polling in Wisconsin, especially a Marquette poll!

While they are traditionally Republican, they are very similar to the blue collar industrial towns that Trump did very well in, in places like Illinois and Michigan.
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Dr. Arch
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« Reply #10 on: March 17, 2016, 06:36:12 PM »
There are a lot of Trump supporters among Republicans here, especially in the traditionally conservative eastern areas.
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#TheShadowyAbyss
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« Reply #11 on: March 17, 2016, 06:40:35 PM »
Trump maybe wins it >5% - <10% somewhere in that range. He does well in Democratic areas, Cruz will do ok.
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Senator Spark
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« Reply #12 on: March 17, 2016, 07:49:18 PM »
Cruz or Kasich
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Attorney General & PPT Dwarven Dragon
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« Reply #13 on: March 17, 2016, 09:05:54 PM »
Write-in votes for Scott Walker

Cruz. TRUMP in 2nd.
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Ronnie
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« Reply #14 on: March 17, 2016, 09:08:11 PM »
Walker will probably campaign hard for Cruz, so I'm guessing he'll win it by a hair.  The state doesn't really seem like Trump territory anyhow.
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Vosem
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« Reply #15 on: March 17, 2016, 09:10:18 PM »
While this seems logically to be a very anti-trump state, it also seems like one where Cruz and Kasich would get in each other's ways a great deal. So another win for the tiny hands.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #16 on: March 17, 2016, 09:18:28 PM »
« Edited: March 17, 2016, 09:21:25 PM by Gass3268 »
Quote from: Vosem on March 17, 2016, 09:10:18 PM
While this seems logically to be a very anti-trump state, it also seems like one where Cruz and Kasich would get in each other's ways a great deal. So another win for the tiny hands.

This is a very important point. Also here was the last Marquette poll. Should be noted that this was before Super Tuesday.

Trump 30%
Rubio 20%
Cruz 19%
Kasich 8%
Carson 8%
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #17 on: March 17, 2016, 09:19:22 PM »
Quote from: Ronnie on March 17, 2016, 09:08:11 PM
Walker will probably campaign hard for Cruz, so I'm guessing he'll win it by a hair.  The state doesn't really seem like Trump territory anyhow.

Governor's don't have a real good record this year of deliver their state for a particular candidate.
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Koharu
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« Reply #18 on: March 17, 2016, 09:40:20 PM »
It really depends on what parts of the state turn out. I think if the northern half of the state, as well as the extreme southwest part of the state, has good turn out, then Trump will do well. If the suburban areas turn out well, that pushes Kasich up more. I honestly don't understand Cruz, so it's hard for me to guess in regards to him.

I agree with earlier posters, though, in that I will not be surprised by whoever wins. They all seem possible to me.
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MIKESOWELL
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« Reply #19 on: March 17, 2016, 10:27:44 PM »
It will be interesting to see how the vote shifts as the field dwindles to three. I think the previous posters make an interesting point regarding Cruz and Kasich splitting the anti-Trump vote. I think Trump wins by about 4 or 5 points.
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #20 on: March 17, 2016, 11:00:14 PM »
Quote from: Gass3268 on March 17, 2016, 09:18:28 PM
Quote from: Vosem on March 17, 2016, 09:10:18 PM
While this seems logically to be a very anti-trump state, it also seems like one where Cruz and Kasich would get in each other's ways a great deal. So another win for the tiny hands.

This is a very important point. Also here was the last Marquette poll. Should be noted that this was before Super Tuesday.

Trump 30%
Rubio 20%
Cruz 19%
Kasich 8%
Carson 8%

This is a reason to believe Cruz will win it. He should get the majority of the Rubio vote, and while Trump will have risen nationally by that point, he'll get less than his 38% nationally in Wisconsin. It should be low enough for Cruz to pull it off. Trump will do better in the Fox Cities and rurals. Cruz will do best in the MKE suburbs, where half the Republicans prefer Bernie Sanders to Trump.
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Sprouts Farmers Market ✘
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« Reply #21 on: March 17, 2016, 11:08:17 PM »
I don't understand why anyone would think Trump has a prayer here?
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TJ in Oregon
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« Reply #22 on: March 17, 2016, 11:12:56 PM »
Quote from: Sprouts Farmers Market on March 17, 2016, 11:08:17 PM
I don't understand why anyone would think Trump has a prayer here?

The idea is that Kasich should do well in Wisconsin and split the anti-Trump vote evenly enough for Trump to win with ~35%.
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Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.
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« Reply #23 on: March 17, 2016, 11:35:06 PM »
I don't understand why Wisconsin is supposed to be not naturally favorable turf for Trump. Could someone spell it out for me?
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Ljube
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« Reply #24 on: March 17, 2016, 11:37:04 PM »
I'm pretty sure TRUMP wins Wisconsin. What about particular congressional districts?
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