Spanish elections and politics

[Zinneke]

El Pais were leading today with a story on Rajoy backing a PP-C's coalition, which I think is what put people off oranges. Why would you buy oranges only to realise they are filled with bland, tastless water?  

I'm going to go ahead and predict a PP minority government.

Scholarly text on Ciudadanos, in case anyone's interested: http://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/13608746.2015.1119646

Thanks, I think I'll write a paper on the rise of post-nationalist parties, using FDF, Ciudadanos, D66. Any others like Ciudadanos in Europe?

[Zinneke]

No, I mean the Belgian party. They are now called Défi and are mainly Brussels-based. Used to be part of our mainstream centre-right.

[Zinneke]

What is the difference in political philosophy between Podemos and IU?? Wouldnt it have made sense for IU to simply fold or merge with Podemos?

Podemos refuses to acknowledge their political philosophy. It remains part of a populist current that has no political philosophy, and hence this gives it a certain degree of freedom to react on all issues, compared to the rigid Izquierda.

You see a similar phenomenon with the far right, whose political philosophy died or lost credibility with WW2. This initially accounted for their dismal scores but now that electoral realignment is a thing, it allows them to pick certain sections of the electorate through discourse either taken from other political factions or adapted to modern issues such as globalisation.

Like Nanwe puts it, it has to do with marketing.

But as far as I know Podemos and Izquierda Unida really don't get in each other's way as much as, say, Syriza and the KKE.

If you want core ideological differences, Podemos have a right-wing in the party dedicated more to democratisation and local decision making and social movements, while the left-wing backs this on Gramscist, Eurocommunist "reclaim the working class" grounds. Izquierda are sort of decaying Trotskyists. I haven't read much about them but they rely on their industrial working class base alone and seem proud of that.

[Zinneke]

Options:
- PP + PSOE; both corrupt, power-hungry parties that want to ensure the government's "job machine" will stay within the same hands
- PP + C's + some nationalist MPs (not all parties have to be in the govt, could be minority)
- PSOE + Podemos + C's (not all parties have to be in the govt, could be minority)
- New elections?

PP and C will not ally with nationalists. They just signed a pact reiterating their opposition to Catalan devolution, which is what harmed C's in peripheries like Andalucia. Anybody who jumps into bed with Rajoy is a pariah to nationalists.

[Zinneke]

From the Spanish TV network:


Who are IU-UP?

Izquierda Unida and an affiliate.

Funny how they form the colours of the Republican flag.

[Zinneke]

How many of the 9 seats from ERC-Catalunya so que ES pot on the list are part of Podemos (the latter, so que ES pot is Podemos in Catalonia)?

[Zinneke]

Guys, nationalists cannot be separated into left or right camps, and this isn't like Scandinavian election where all the left or right aggregate. This is a first in Spain and we should treat it as such. There is no way the left-right divide stands though.

[Zinneke]

PSOE+Podemos 160 (42.71%) PP-C 162 (42.57%)

It is interesting how close the vote shares are as well.

Again, it doesn't work like that though. I thought the whole point of these elections was the end of bipartisanship. TVE are just stuck in their paradigm.

Can I also have a source where Rivera states PP is his preferred coalition partner.

Well, lets accept that it is much more likely Podemos will ally with PSOE and it is much more likely that C will ally with PP.  I am not saying it is destined to take place.

No, it really isn't though, unless you follow TVE, who are still stuck in bipartisan logic.

[Zinneke]

What are the Basques Nationalists main aims? I find it very odd how quiet the Basque areas have been irt the looming breakup of the Spanish state...

They already fulfilled them, largely thanks to the ETA. The PNV would like a federal system that allows them to represent Basque interests only in national politics. Bildu want a socialist (or non-neoliberal) state in the same way CC and Esquerra Republicana.

As long as they keep their extra national politics, administration and policing they will be happy though.

[Zinneke]

With 99.43% counted:

PP+C's 163 seats (42.64%)         PSOE+Podemos 159 seats (42.67%)    

If these groupings are posted one more time I am going to break the keyboard...

Here are all the other possibilities that are actually more probable than these pre-set alliances you've taken from TVE...

• We head for new elections
• PP-PSOE
• Podemos-Ciu-PSOE

They already fulfilled them, largely thanks to the ETA.

WTF !!!

Similar situation to Northern Ireland. You have terrorists on your doorstep that you do not want, just find a solution that involves devolution. The violence dies down, and the problem is half-solved.

[Zinneke]

 I imagine Podemos struggled in Andalucia because they are painted by PSOE as a threat to the traditional  welfare state as facilitators to its federalisation. We have a similar thing with our socialist party in Wallonia. People who benefit from government aid (and European aid) do not want multi-level governance.

Not sure how C's bombed in Catalunya, considering how they scored really well in the regionals there. PP were last too...

[Zinneke]

Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227

Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Why would the nationalists take a beating? Especially in light of national (i.e Madrid-based) politics?

[Zinneke]

Lmao CuP

http://uk.reuters.com/article/uk-spain-catalonia-idUKKBN0UA0NQ20151227

Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Why would the nationalists take a beating? Especially in light of national (i.e Madrid-based) politics?

Because they did in the general election and because the few polls there are seem to indicate so. I don't mean they'll crush but well.

But like you said in a later post, Catalans don't seem to want to vote for national parties at a federal level, instead preferring Podemos/PSOE. It seems like the potential switch is between CiU and Erc, which is what confused me when you said the nationalists would struggle. I'm wondering how the Catalan electorate are reacting to the current deadlock in Madrid, that is focused on them? Is it hardening their position?

[Zinneke]

http://noticias.lainformacion.com/politica/partidos/un-documento-firmado-por-5-ministros-pide-a-rajoy-irse-para-que-el-pp-gobierne_NLvtzK6RmxOpowQjDmTQ57/

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"Soy aquí porque somos un equipo" and then she ousts Rajoy of the presidency. Hmm?

[Zinneke]

But if what you said is true, and there is no incentive for the nationalist parties to go into new elections, then it makes more sense, particularly as the CUP are bordering on implosion.

[Zinneke]

Oh, and apparently there has been some controversy about a speech Puigdemont gave in 2013 where he pledged to "expel the invaders from Catalonia, as they were in Belgium (? - I can only guess this is some kind of reference to Flanders)

I'm guessing he meant to refer to the Netherlands.

He could also be referring the expulsion of francophones from Leuven.

[Zinneke]

Don't try to make analogies between Spanish and Greek parties. Spain and Greece are different countries and have a very different political culture. Also, in spite of a huge institutional crisis, by no means Spain is a disfunctional state and we're not in a pre-revolutionary phase.

In fairness To Potami and C's are both the same electoral phenomenon : a party filling a void in the electoral market for a pro-European, pro-liberal, anti-nationalist moderate center in the context of polarization.

You are going to see similar movements in France (Macron's movement), Belgium (Défi), Germany (FDP back in the polls), Austria (NEOS),  and Italy (in power). These Blairite/Tapie social-liberals are a European phenomenon.

If you don't think Spain is in at least a political crisis and at best a constitutional crisis with part of its country unilaterally separating, and as such is incomparable to Greece's economic and political crisis, then I question your authority on the matter. I'd leave it up to political scientists though.

[Zinneke]

The success of xenophobic far right is an European phenomenon that has particularities in every country affected by that disease, right? Are you going to say that FN and AfD are the same thing?  There are affinities and resemblances,  but they are different parties whose differential characteristics are the products of a particular national context.

Their origins are different, but their vote is the same, in terms of demographics and politics. I think this is where we are misunderstood. You are saying that Podemos and Syriza, or FN and AfD, are two different entities because you are defining them according to their origins, national particularities (in terms of policy) and party structure. But I am talking about their voters, which will ultimately determine where they end up as a political force. As an electoral phenomenon, these parties' and their rise have to be put in a European political context, and are therefore comparable.

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The origins of C's in Catalonia have little to do with their rise overall, apart from their amazing result in the 2015 regional election (due to the particular context). C's were nowhere in the rest of Spain (where they presented lists), a minor party in Catalonia, and on the brink of dissolving or ditching Rivera until they did what all the other social liberal parties did - fill the pro-Europe social liberal void. Their breakthrough came in a European election at the heart of a decade of European decay, on a pro-European, anti-extremist/nationalist platform.

Parties like FDF, D66, and even the FDP were not social liberal parties either, but they all did what C's eventually did, and fill an electoral market void. It just goes to show how the vote defines the party and not the other way round. That's the new democracy we are headed for.

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It has a similar effect in terms of emergence of populist parties or, in the case of multi-ethnic states, seperatist ones. I understand your point regarding Spain and Greece's different crisis, but I fail to see how that difference is reflected electorally, apart from the rise of Golden Dawn. And I do believe both Spaniards and Greeks externalise their crisees in a European context. The comparison between Greece and Spain, and To Potami and Ciudadanos, is perfectly valid in a European political context.

[Zinneke]

Really? Probably there's people on this forum with knowledge enough to confirm or refute your assertion. It seems to me that, in terms of demographics, there's nothing in France comparable to the AfD's voter base in former DDR. It'd be a fascinating subject to discuss in another thread.

Sticking to Spain in order to not remain off-topic, I wonder if their lack of right-wing populist emergence in industrial declining zones such as East Gemany and Northern France (the FN vote there is different to the Southern FN vote) stems from industrial zones in Spain like Basque Country and Catalonia having left-wing nationalist movements to ''counter'' globalisation in a different way. Wallonia is another region without a far right and this is due to a more effective brand of leftism/alter-globalism.

Does Asturias, a region with historically few nationalist parties apart from Foro (allied to PP), have a right-wing populist turn?

[Zinneke]

I've always thought the reason that right-wing populism is yet to emerge in Spain is simply that the PP is descended from forces that were outright fascist, is further to the right than a typical European right-wing party, and is better positioned to absorb that sort of anger into itself rather than having a separate party take root.

PP seems to be what we call in French a ''decomplexed'' Right. Its true that Allianza Popular was a party born out of a think-tank that wanted to pursue Francoism (or, more precisely its ideological tenets) through democratic means, and Aznar was a No supporter in the 1977 referendum. But now PP appears to be a catch all Right party from the centre to the extreme.

Sarkozy was also billed as the decomplexed Right in France. In 2007 he managed to destroy the FN vote. So your theory might hold up if we applied this to Spain too. Certainly PP do their best to appeal to that section of society while remaining in the European People's Party framework of a good centre-right conservative.  

Last right-wing populist party in Spain that I heard of was Vox. I think it was a breakaway from PP due to personal disagreements, and didn't gain much traction.

[Zinneke]

Aznar was a No supporter in the 1977 referendum.

There was a referendum in 1976 and one in 1978, but none in 1977.

78

[Zinneke]

Just to answer two points I have seen on here :

- the likelihood of PNV joining a right-wing PP/C government is next to nothing due to their previous backing of a PP government being acrimonious (twas a long time ago though) resulting in the unilateral Devolution plan. Furthermore, the elcotral field in the Basque Countries is so competetive being seen as a PP sympathiser would be the final nail in the coffin of PNV hegemony in the region.

- C's will be included in any PP-PSOE coalition because they will have to present this bipartismo deal as some kind of political renewal and C's will suffer like the Libdems did in the next election because of it.

[Zinneke]

Can the King do the samee as his namesake here in Belgium, and invite somebody else from whatever party to form a government, bypassing the head of the party?

This happened a lot during our governmental vacuum. De Wever was seen as a divisive figre due to his open seperatism, and someone more moderate was called upon to negotiate a deal on behalf of the N-VA?

Also, it look increasingly likely CUP are going to collapse the Catalan government, right?

[Zinneke]

Is Diaz expected to venture out of her fiefdom to take over the PSOE leadership one day?

[Zinneke]

Even if PSOE now offers to abstain under its new leadership paving the way for a PP government, is there not a chance that PP will maneuver things in a way to provoke a third election anyway just to take advantage of the current split in PSOE?  

The whole PSOE manoeuvre seems to be based on the idea that the PP would like third elections and that now with Sanchez out of the way, they can call PP's bluff. Previously, PSOE was getting a lot of the blame for the current crisis and for pandering to ''unconstitutional'' forces. Its clear Rajoy wants an absolute majority, but from what I gather from the articles he'll be happy to govern with C's.

A PP-C's minority government is a one way ticket to Catalan unilateral declaration of independence IMO.

I'm still unsure what exactly PSOE's short or long term strategy is. THey are going to get PASOK'd.