Spanish elections and politics

[Zinneke]

Don't try to make analogies between Spanish and Greek parties. Spain and Greece are different countries and have a very different political culture. Also, in spite of a huge institutional crisis, by no means Spain is a disfunctional state and we're not in a pre-revolutionary phase.

In fairness To Potami and C's are both the same electoral phenomenon : a party filling a void in the electoral market for a pro-European, pro-liberal, anti-nationalist moderate center in the context of polarization.

You are going to see similar movements in France (Macron's movement), Belgium (Défi), Germany (FDP back in the polls), Austria (NEOS),  and Italy (in power). These Blairite/Tapie social-liberals are a European phenomenon.

If you don't think Spain is in at least a political crisis and at best a constitutional crisis with part of its country unilaterally separating, and as such is incomparable to Greece's economic and political crisis, then I question your authority on the matter. I'd leave it up to political scientists though.

[Zinneke]

The success of xenophobic far right is an European phenomenon that has particularities in every country affected by that disease, right? Are you going to say that FN and AfD are the same thing?  There are affinities and resemblances,  but they are different parties whose differential characteristics are the products of a particular national context.

Their origins are different, but their vote is the same, in terms of demographics and politics. I think this is where we are misunderstood. You are saying that Podemos and Syriza, or FN and AfD, are two different entities because you are defining them according to their origins, national particularities (in terms of policy) and party structure. But I am talking about their voters, which will ultimately determine where they end up as a political force. As an electoral phenomenon, these parties' and their rise have to be put in a European political context, and are therefore comparable.

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The origins of C's in Catalonia have little to do with their rise overall, apart from their amazing result in the 2015 regional election (due to the particular context). C's were nowhere in the rest of Spain (where they presented lists), a minor party in Catalonia, and on the brink of dissolving or ditching Rivera until they did what all the other social liberal parties did - fill the pro-Europe social liberal void. Their breakthrough came in a European election at the heart of a decade of European decay, on a pro-European, anti-extremist/nationalist platform.

Parties like FDF, D66, and even the FDP were not social liberal parties either, but they all did what C's eventually did, and fill an electoral market void. It just goes to show how the vote defines the party and not the other way round. That's the new democracy we are headed for.

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It has a similar effect in terms of emergence of populist parties or, in the case of multi-ethnic states, seperatist ones. I understand your point regarding Spain and Greece's different crisis, but I fail to see how that difference is reflected electorally, apart from the rise of Golden Dawn. And I do believe both Spaniards and Greeks externalise their crisees in a European context. The comparison between Greece and Spain, and To Potami and Ciudadanos, is perfectly valid in a European political context.

[Zinneke]

Really? Probably there's people on this forum with knowledge enough to confirm or refute your assertion. It seems to me that, in terms of demographics, there's nothing in France comparable to the AfD's voter base in former DDR. It'd be a fascinating subject to discuss in another thread.

Sticking to Spain in order to not remain off-topic, I wonder if their lack of right-wing populist emergence in industrial declining zones such as East Gemany and Northern France (the FN vote there is different to the Southern FN vote) stems from industrial zones in Spain like Basque Country and Catalonia having left-wing nationalist movements to ''counter'' globalisation in a different way. Wallonia is another region without a far right and this is due to a more effective brand of leftism/alter-globalism.

Does Asturias, a region with historically few nationalist parties apart from Foro (allied to PP), have a right-wing populist turn?

[Zinneke]

I've always thought the reason that right-wing populism is yet to emerge in Spain is simply that the PP is descended from forces that were outright fascist, is further to the right than a typical European right-wing party, and is better positioned to absorb that sort of anger into itself rather than having a separate party take root.

PP seems to be what we call in French a ''decomplexed'' Right. Its true that Allianza Popular was a party born out of a think-tank that wanted to pursue Francoism (or, more precisely its ideological tenets) through democratic means, and Aznar was a No supporter in the 1977 referendum. But now PP appears to be a catch all Right party from the centre to the extreme.

Sarkozy was also billed as the decomplexed Right in France. In 2007 he managed to destroy the FN vote. So your theory might hold up if we applied this to Spain too. Certainly PP do their best to appeal to that section of society while remaining in the European People's Party framework of a good centre-right conservative.  

Last right-wing populist party in Spain that I heard of was Vox. I think it was a breakaway from PP due to personal disagreements, and didn't gain much traction.

[Zinneke]

Aznar was a No supporter in the 1977 referendum.

There was a referendum in 1976 and one in 1978, but none in 1977.

78

[Zinneke]

Just to answer two points I have seen on here :

- the likelihood of PNV joining a right-wing PP/C government is next to nothing due to their previous backing of a PP government being acrimonious (twas a long time ago though) resulting in the unilateral Devolution plan. Furthermore, the elcotral field in the Basque Countries is so competetive being seen as a PP sympathiser would be the final nail in the coffin of PNV hegemony in the region.

- C's will be included in any PP-PSOE coalition because they will have to present this bipartismo deal as some kind of political renewal and C's will suffer like the Libdems did in the next election because of it.

[Zinneke]

Can the King do the samee as his namesake here in Belgium, and invite somebody else from whatever party to form a government, bypassing the head of the party?

This happened a lot during our governmental vacuum. De Wever was seen as a divisive figre due to his open seperatism, and someone more moderate was called upon to negotiate a deal on behalf of the N-VA?

Also, it look increasingly likely CUP are going to collapse the Catalan government, right?

[Zinneke]

Could you do the same for PSOE? I think they grew up in the urban areas but lost in its traditional strongholds, but a more in-depth picture would be interesting.

They lost seats in Andalucia apparently. Is it because of the infighting?

[Zinneke]

Any news on the vote of confidence that the Catalan government was due to hold?

[Zinneke]

Is Diaz expected to venture out of her fiefdom to take over the PSOE leadership one day?

[Zinneke]

Even if PSOE now offers to abstain under its new leadership paving the way for a PP government, is there not a chance that PP will maneuver things in a way to provoke a third election anyway just to take advantage of the current split in PSOE?  

The whole PSOE manoeuvre seems to be based on the idea that the PP would like third elections and that now with Sanchez out of the way, they can call PP's bluff. Previously, PSOE was getting a lot of the blame for the current crisis and for pandering to ''unconstitutional'' forces. Its clear Rajoy wants an absolute majority, but from what I gather from the articles he'll be happy to govern with C's.

A PP-C's minority government is a one way ticket to Catalan unilateral declaration of independence IMO.

I'm still unsure what exactly PSOE's short or long term strategy is. THey are going to get PASOK'd.

[Zinneke]

talking of animal rights, the Catalan bullfighting ban has been overturned

The one in the Canary Islands hasn't.

Hmmm...

[Zinneke]

I've made this joke before, but what's Spanish for 'Country Party'? Would be a more accurate name by this point.

Par'ido de lo' Pue'lo'

[Zinneke]

Rajoy may have topped "corruption? What does that have the economy?" with this fantastic analogy:

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We should probably restart this thread tbh, as PSOE gets round to choosing a leader and the Catalonia crisis goes on and on.

I agree. Adding to what you said Crabcake, El Mundo newspaper is reporting that Rajoy doesn't have support to approve the budget in Parliament. Rajoy may actually be the luckiest politician in the world currently. If his budget isn't approved, probably another election may have to happen and with the PSOE leadership still very fresh and Podemos is complete civil war, Rajoy and the PP can simply say to the electorate: "they don't present an alternative, they don't let me govern the country. Had enough?".  

PP is losing voters rapidly to C's in the polls though.

[Zinneke]

That's true Rogier, although Spanish polls aren't very reliable. But the point i was stretching is that there is no alternative, at the moment, to Mr. Rajoy. Trying to block him could be counterproductive. Remember the 2016 election.

This hole Murcia scandal is what has stained the relations between the PP and C's. The C's wants the current President ousted and a new PP president sworn in or new elections. All of this because of the PP money schemes. If an election is held again in Murcia, polls show there would be a repetition of the 2015 election results.

Do you know who is going to run for the PSOE leadership, apart from Susana Diaz? Is she the favourite?

[Zinneke]

Have ERC basically overtaken the Convergents in Catalunya as the leading nationalist power in the polls? How much has it to do with the latter´s rebranding?

[Zinneke]

Pregunta tíos, why have Ada Colau and Podem fallen out, only for her new party to join the Podemos national structure again?

http://politica.elpais.com/politica/2017/03/20/actualidad/1490015134_454408.html

[Zinneke]

There is a fundamental contradiction in the Constitution though, in that it has allowed both Article 2 and the possibility of seperatists to win a majority in the Generalitat to co-exist. The separatist majority is as legal as Article 2.

[Zinneke]

There is a fundamental contradiction in the Constitution though, in that it has allowed both Article 2 and the possibility of seperatists to win a majority in the Generalitat to co-exist. The separatist majority is as legal as Article 2.

It's not like there was an alternative. I think some countries do ban parties whose objective is independence, but Spain doesn't.

Also, Catalonia's flirt with independence is very recient. The Basque Country was the most pro independnece of the 2 traditionally.

Finally, there are regionalist parties that do not want independence. The best examples of this being the centre-right CC (Canary Islands) with 1/15 Canarian seats and the centre-left wing PRC from Cantabria (no seats, but they do hold the governor there)

Agreed on all three points. I was trying to present the legal view of the Catalan separatists though, who believe that their victory in 2015 served the purpose of contradicting the legality of Article 2, and that any ruling by the Constitutional Court is skewered by the fact that the Senate, which is elected in a manner that favours the unionists, nominates the judges. Their last point is hardly illegitimate.

Convergencia voted with the Constitutionalists in the referendum IIRC, a look back on that

[Zinneke]

Could anybody tell me something about the relationship between C's and the far right? I read something about it and found it incredibly weird that any far right person would be attracted to them.

If you understand why the Flemish consider Défi/FDF far right, then you maybe there have the closest analogy I can find.

[Zinneke]

Any reason for the change of heart? The pro-independence camp had a fairly solid lead after Rajoy ''won'' again.
What happened to IC-V?

[Zinneke]

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20170521/422796264745/susana-diaz-solo-gana-dos-comunidades.html

Pretty clear landslide. 

[Zinneke]

What's with PP's good results on the southern Coast of Andalucia?

[Zinneke]

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http://www.euronews.com/2017/07/04/catalonia-vows-to-split-from-span-in-48-hours---after-october-vote

Supposing that the referendum takes place and the independentists win with the other side boycotting the vote, what happens next? Would Madrid send in soldiers? Or would they do that before the vote?

http://www.lavanguardia.com/politica/20170704/423891438758/cospedal-fuerzas-armadas-soberania-espana.html

The Spanish Defense minister says as much, but its empty rhetoric. More likely is that you have the Guarda Civil walk in to the Mossos (the Catalan local police) and take over the law institutions. Also the organisers of the referendum will be tried like Artur Mas was.

[Zinneke]

Catalan referendum. Yes vote up to 72% because of PP-C's abstention a.

"Would you go vote if there is a referendum?"

"If you went to vote, what would you vote for?"


source : http://www.elespanol.com/espana/politica/20170904/244226382_0.html

Unless C's and PP voters turn up I imagine the turnout will be too low for it to be considered remotely serious. Interested in what tack50 and Velasco think will happen though. It might be a 1921 Ireland situation where a paralel legal system and state institution is set up without recognition of a part of the population.