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Velasco
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« Reply #625 on: December 28, 2015, 03:25:32 PM »
« edited: December 28, 2015, 04:30:26 PM by Velasco »

Pedro Sánchez, who is under big pressure from all sides including his own party, faced PSOE barons this morning. "Territorial integrity of Spain is not up for debate":

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/12/28/inenglish/1451310221_233637.html

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Meanwhile Pablo Iglesias met Mariano Rajoy at La Moncloa. Afterwards Iglesias told reporters that he is "massively dissapointed" with Pedro Sánchez. Mr Iglesias won't give up on the issue of the referendum in Catalonia -that is unacceptable for the socialists, especially for 'barons' like Susana Díaz- and demands that PSOE takes a position on a number of social measures that Podemos wants to implement.

http://elpais.com/elpais/2015/12/28/inenglish/1451308259_640441.html

On a side note, I find some demagoguery in the way that referendum proposal is depicted by naysayers. PP, PSOE and C's spokepersons say that Podemos aims to break Spain, even though Mr Iglesias stated he would campaign against independence in case the consultation was to take place. On the other hand it's likely that Pablo Iglesias aims a new election in which his party could grow at the expense of the Spanish socialists (and PP at the expense of C's), hence some people think that he says referendum is not negotiable because he kows it's a condition PSOE cannot accept. In any case Podemos could not give up without alienating regional allies, especially the Catalan and namely Barcelona Mayor Ada Colau.  

Mariano Rajoy met with Albert Rivera. The front man of Ciudadanos stated that his party will abstain in Rajoy's investiture and demands that socialists do the same, allowing PP leader to continue as PM in a second vote. Rivera would like  an entente PP-PSOE-C's in order to provide stability, enact some reforms and preserve the integrity of Spain. This option seems to be very popular in some media (yesterday I read Mario Vargas Llosa supporting it).
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Velasco
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« Reply #626 on: December 28, 2015, 04:28:25 PM »


Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Catalan separatists never disappoint me Grin
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #627 on: December 28, 2015, 07:24:27 PM »

God, senile third-way politicians are the worst.

These people aren't so much third way as generic small c conservatives.
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Zinneke
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« Reply #628 on: December 29, 2015, 07:37:17 PM »


Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Why would the nationalists take a beating? Especially in light of national (i.e Madrid-based) politics?
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Nanwe
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« Reply #629 on: January 03, 2016, 09:37:34 AM »


Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Why would the nationalists take a beating? Especially in light of national (i.e Madrid-based) politics?

Because they did in the general election and because the few polls there are seem to indicate so. I don't mean they'll crush but well...

Btw, elections will be held in March, the CUP just announced it will vote 5 for and 5 against, meaning, Mas doesn't have a majority or a plurality (for the second round) and since by next Sunday, the deadline will be met, new elections will be held automatically, in March. Fun times. CiU is about to be eclipsed by ERC as the main Catalanist party. And I venture to say that CDC will rid itself of Mas and might become (once again) a determining part of the Spanish process of government-formation.
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« Reply #630 on: January 03, 2016, 12:28:38 PM »

The most recent poll i can find (from NYE) has very little change from the election.

I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?
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SPQR
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« Reply #631 on: January 04, 2016, 08:52:56 AM »

Why in hell didn't Convergencia get rid of Mas before the CUP assembly?
Just goes on to show how CdC didn't care one bit about independence,after all.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #632 on: January 04, 2016, 11:03:57 AM »

The most recent poll i can find (from NYE) has very little change from the election.

I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?

Well, the Catalan debate right now is polarised between independence or staying in Spain, so the middle-of-the-road position of CSQP of holding a referendum but voting against independence is not able to arouse much support. And also, as Podemos put as their main candidate Lluis Rabell, who had no charisma to speak of (even borrowed from Iglesias), they suffered. Also, Catalan voters are historically dual, meaning that they do not necessarily (or usually) vote the same in general and in Catalan elections: They will vote for the party they believe can best defend Catalonia within the Spanish institutions (PSOE, now Podemos) but at the regional level it's a different story. See, all the people who voted CiU at the regional level, but PSOE-PSC at the national one.

The problem with polls is that it's rather likely JxS will explode, and become CDC and ERC once again, this time with ERC becoming the main Catalanist party for the first time since the 30s. Also, the CUP will suffer. It remains to be seen whether or not C's will grow or it will go down, as it did in the general election.

CDC does care somewhat about independence (although they are many within who are ambivalent or just souveranist) but they care far more about their cap being the cap. Essentially Mas has almost absolute control of the party, just like Pujol did, so it's unlikely that even if they wanted (and Spanish parties aren't prone to these things), they could oust him. But you can see a change as you have people close to Mas, like Homs or Mas-Colell already expressing a much more ambivalent message about independence. For instance, during the electoral campaign, DiL was essentially saying independence one day and the next,"let's find a common ground, an accord with Madrid".
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Velasco
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« Reply #633 on: January 04, 2016, 12:05:16 PM »

Artur Mas wil not step down:

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/04/inenglish/1451909580_715089.html

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Velasco
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« Reply #634 on: January 04, 2016, 12:36:15 PM »

I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?

The most recent poll i can find (from NYE) has very little change from the election.

I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?
Well, the Catalan debate right now is polarised between independence or staying in Spain, so the middle-of-the-road position of CSQP of holding a referendum but voting against independence is not able to arouse much support. And also, as Podemos put as their main candidate Lluis Rabell, who had no charisma to speak of (even borrowed from Iglesias), they suffered. Also, Catalan voters are historically dual, meaning that they do not necessarily (or usually) vote the same in general and in Catalan elections: They will vote for the party they believe can best defend Catalonia within the Spanish institutions (PSOE, now Podemos) but at the regional level it's a different story. See, all the people who voted CiU at the regional level, but PSOE-PSC at the national one.

There's another factor that makes a difference between Catalunya Sí que es Pot and En Comú Podem, that is the engagement Ada Colau and Barcelona en Comú in the general election. Actually, the main reference of the 'alternative left' in Catalonia is the Mayoress of Barcelona and not Pablo Iglesias. I haven't found polls for the Catalan elections conducted after December 20. In case the ECP alliance is going to be replicated in an early election to take place in March, with Colau taking a starring role, results could be a bit different. Another important factor would be a breakdown of the Junts pel Sí alliance.

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Nanwe
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« Reply #635 on: January 04, 2016, 12:59:31 PM »

I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?

The most recent poll i can find (from NYE) has very little change from the election.

I wonder why Catalunya Sí que es Pot is so much less popular than En Comú Podem?
Well, the Catalan debate right now is polarised between independence or staying in Spain, so the middle-of-the-road position of CSQP of holding a referendum but voting against independence is not able to arouse much support. And also, as Podemos put as their main candidate Lluis Rabell, who had no charisma to speak of (even borrowed from Iglesias), they suffered. Also, Catalan voters are historically dual, meaning that they do not necessarily (or usually) vote the same in general and in Catalan elections: They will vote for the party they believe can best defend Catalonia within the Spanish institutions (PSOE, now Podemos) but at the regional level it's a different story. See, all the people who voted CiU at the regional level, but PSOE-PSC at the national one.

There's another factor that makes a difference between Catalunya Sí que es Pot and En Comú Podem, that is the engagement Ada Colau and Barcelona en Comú in the general election. Actually, the main reference of the 'alternative left' in Catalonia is the Mayoress of Barcelona and not Pablo Iglesias. I haven't found polls for the Catalan elections conducted after December 20. In case the ECP alliance is going to be replicated in an early election to take place in March, with Colau taking a starring role, results could be a bit different. Another important factor would be a breakdown of the Junts pel Sí alliance.

Indeed. I think JxS is going to collapse, personally. As for the polls, there's one from La Razón:



JxS: 56 (-6)
C's: 29 (+4)
PSC: 15 (-1)
CSP: 12 (+1)
CUP: 11 (+1)
PP: 10 (-1)
Unió: 2 (+2)

Independence bloc: 67 seats (-5) (68 needed for absolute majority).
Unionists: 54 seats (+2)
Pro-referendum: 14 (+3)
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Velasco
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« Reply #636 on: January 04, 2016, 01:27:30 PM »

I think that poll doesn't reflect the state of public opinion at this moment. Anyway, I never trusted NC Report and La Razón Wink
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Nanwe
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« Reply #637 on: January 04, 2016, 02:30:54 PM »

I think that poll doesn't reflect the state of public opinion at this moment. Anyway, I never trusted NC Report and La Razón Wink

Obviously Tongue But the only other projection is from El Mundo and it appears to be basically just a projection of the general election's results onto the Parlament, which is deficient.

But polling is going to be inaccurate because a) JxSì might collapse and b) will C's unexpected underperformance at the national elvel affect them at the Parlament?, c) will Colau and co. get more involved in the campaign for CSP? and most importantly d) will Iceta manage to win a majority for the PSC with his amazing dance moves? I'm sure he's been practising Tongue
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Velasco
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« Reply #638 on: January 05, 2016, 04:32:16 AM »

d) will Iceta manage to win a majority for the PSC with his amazing dance moves? I'm sure he's been practising Tongue

Ah, welcome to Polònia Cheesy

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=AWabXIPGmJI

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=PjYHUGIJ4wM
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Zinneke
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« Reply #639 on: January 05, 2016, 04:40:55 AM »


Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Why would the nationalists take a beating? Especially in light of national (i.e Madrid-based) politics?

Because they did in the general election and because the few polls there are seem to indicate so. I don't mean they'll crush but well.

But like you said in a later post, Catalans don't seem to want to vote for national parties at a federal level, instead preferring Podemos/PSOE. It seems like the potential switch is between CiU and Erc, which is what confused me when you said the nationalists would struggle. I'm wondering how the Catalan electorate are reacting to the current deadlock in Madrid, that is focused on them? Is it hardening their position?
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Nanwe
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« Reply #640 on: January 05, 2016, 12:10:10 PM »


Yes, the pròces has reached mathematic-defying proportions... It's ridiculous. It seems rather likely that Catalonia will have to have elections again. And the nationalists might take a huge beating.

Why would the nationalists take a beating? Especially in light of national (i.e Madrid-based) politics?

Because they did in the general election and because the few polls there are seem to indicate so. I don't mean they'll crush but well.

But like you said in a later post, Catalans don't seem to want to vote for national parties at a federal level, instead preferring Podemos/PSOE. It seems like the potential switch is between CiU and Erc, which is what confused me when you said the nationalists would struggle. I'm wondering how the Catalan electorate are reacting to the current deadlock in Madrid, that is focused on them? Is it hardening their position?

That is true, and to be honest, it's more of a feeling, I don't think there's yet evidence to support it. I think CDC has suffered a lot in the last legislature, and then there's the fact that the sum of CDC+ERC in seats has consistently gone down since 2010 (and now they don't have an absolute majority together, which they always had since 1980). I think many 'soft' nationalists, after this major blow to the 'procés' from within (first time, until now it was the evil Estat espanyol) will not help them out, plus you can only energise people from so long. Then there's the feeling that ERC is to pass CDC as the main Catalanist party, which won't help JxS to stay together. That could be seen in the general election.

Well, I'm not Catalan, but I'd say somewhat similar to the rest of Spain, waiting and condused by the situation, and thinking whether their territorial demands can be satisfied. I don't think it'll harden positions, instead, I think it can soften them, because (if a PSOE govt, with Podemos or C's, or both or idk happens), then the Government will be flexible. Also, because there's a consensus regarding a change in the financing of the regions and such. But it also depends on whether or not a Government can be formed. Ideally for a change (without a referendum), the best option is a PSOE+PP govt with support from C's and occassional agreements with Podemos for reforming the institutional and constitutional framework, but the situation atm it's far too complicated to tell what's going to happen.
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Velasco
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« Reply #641 on: January 05, 2016, 12:47:26 PM »

But like you said in a later post, Catalans don't seem to want to vote for national parties at a federal level, instead preferring Podemos/PSOE. It seems like the potential switch is between CiU and Erc, which is what confused me when you said the nationalists would struggle. I'm wondering how the Catalan electorate are reacting to the current deadlock in Madrid, that is focused on them? Is it hardening their position?

It's a bit more complicated than that. Catalonia has a long tradition of dual behaviour in elections, as it was pointed before, so there are few places in Spain where general and regional elections are so different contests. However, the deadlock is not only located in Madrid. The procés is reaching a dead end in the last few days both because of its unrealistic goals (despite separatists lost the 'plebiscite' by a narrow margin) and the absurd vaudeville starred by the stubborn Artur Mas and the CUP, embroiled in never-ending assemblies. The ERC can be a winner in this situation, because it places itself in the centrality of the separatist spectrum. Anyway, vote switches in Catalonia are multidirectional and there are grey areas inbetween separatists and unionists. For instance, the CUP itself collected voters from ERC (disaffected with the dealings with Artur Mas) in the last regional election. As well it collected votes from the 'radical' left, helped by the ambiguous positioning of Ada Colau and Barcelona en Comú (some members called to vote for the CSP, others for the CUP). Now that the two souls in the CUP (the separatist and the radical leftist) have collided on Artur Mas, who knows. The CUP didn't run in the general election: according to polls, 32% switched to En Comú Podem and 25% to ERC.     
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Velasco
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« Reply #642 on: January 05, 2016, 04:16:59 PM »

Artur Mas: "On Monday I will sign the decree calling new elections". Another headline: "Catalan presidency is not a fish auction"

http://elpais.com/elpais/2016/01/05/inenglish/1451989708_020302.html

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Velasco
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« Reply #643 on: January 07, 2016, 12:34:18 PM »
« Edited: January 07, 2016, 12:36:53 PM by Velasco »

Podemos wins the overseas vote. Turnout was only 4.7%, mainly because of the difficulties with the voto rogado ("requested vote") system. In previous elections, before that system was implemented, turnout used to be 30% or so. The uneven turnout figures by region are worth mentioning. For instance, in the Canaries 4.2% of the overseas roll requested to vote but votes cast were only 1%. Apparently mail service malfunction in countries like Cuba and Venezuela is connected with extremely low turnouts in Galicia and the Canary Islands. Anyway, results (interactive map by constituency through the link):

Podemos 23,908 votes (27.04%)

PP 20,492 (23.17%)

PSOE 14,885 (16.84%)

C's 14,465 (16.36%)

IU 3,406 (3.85%)

http://ctxt.es/es/20160106/Politica/3617/voto-rogado-elecciones-participacion-Espa%C3%B1a-Elecciones-20D-

Results by region:

http://www.espanaexterior.com/upload/archivo/680-votoceragenerales20d2015.pdf



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Nanwe
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« Reply #644 on: January 09, 2016, 08:10:40 AM »

http://noticias.lainformacion.com/politica/partidos/un-documento-firmado-por-5-ministros-pide-a-rajoy-irse-para-que-el-pp-gobierne_NLvtzK6RmxOpowQjDmTQ57/

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Zinneke
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« Reply #645 on: January 09, 2016, 10:47:16 AM »


"Soy aquí porque somos un equipo" and then she ousts Rajoy of the presidency. Hmm?
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Nanwe
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« Reply #646 on: January 09, 2016, 10:52:38 AM »


Estoy Tongue But yes, basically, she's the second in command and her profile is much more amenable to a great coalition than Mariano "LED" Rajoy.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #647 on: January 09, 2016, 10:54:37 AM »
« Edited: January 09, 2016, 10:56:16 AM by Nanwe »

Also, an in extremis agreement between JxS and the CUP might have been reached and there'd be an investitute vote tomorrow. While not a 100% confirmed, Mas would resign (and become conseller en cap), and Girona's mayor, Carles Puigdemont (CDC) would become President and in exchange, 8 CUP MP would resign and 2 join JxS because I don't know. In any case, this decision has no support (AFAIK) from any CUP Assembly and there are 4-5 CUP MPs very opposed to CDC altogether, so we'll see if this happens and then if they follow their party's line.

But on the other hand, a JxS deputy just tweeted:

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"So far we have no confirmation neither about the investiture vote tomorrow nor about whom it will be!"
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SPQR
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« Reply #648 on: January 09, 2016, 11:39:30 AM »

If CUP agree to this,they'd reach a whole new level of ridicolousness.
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Nanwe
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« Reply #649 on: January 09, 2016, 11:46:57 AM »

If CUP agree to this,they'd reach a whole new level of ridicolousness.

Mas is about to talk to the press, ERC is meeting at 18.00, CDC at 19.00. The CUP I don't know. In any case, 6 CUPaires need to vote yes (and the other 4 don't matter) for an absolute majority, because there can only be one investiture vote and it needs to have an absolute majority. There's no time for a second round, since if there's no President by Monday, elections will be held on March.

And there could be a rebellion in CUP from the anti-Mas/CDC half.
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