Russia-Ukraine war and related tensions Megathread

[compucomp]

https://twitter.com/SkyNews/status/1501512022470635521

American defense officials say, reported on CNN's live feed, that Russia still has 90% of its combat power ready for use, that doesn't sound like "losing significant equipment" or "running out of available troops" to me. I understand this forum is unabashedly cheerleading for Ukraine but believing in obvious pro-Ukrainian propaganda and exaggerated reports is a sure way to be disappointed when reality hits.

Russia has about “90% of their available combat power still ready for their use” in Ukraine, a senior US defense official told reporters on Wednesday.

The US assesses Russia no longer has “several hundred vehicles of different stripes and sizes” available to them, but the US does not know if those vehicles were captured, destroyed or abandoned, the official added.  

CNN first reported Tuesday that the US estimated that as much as 8% to 10% of Russian military assets used in the invasion of Ukraine are now destroyed or inoperable, according to a US official familiar with the latest intelligence as of Tuesday.

The equipment lost includes tanks, aircraft, artillery and other military assets. That is close to double the losses that CNN reported last week when it was estimated Russia had lost 3% to 5% of its military assets.

Question, are you stupid?

Wait, of course you are.

Russia lost 10% of its invading army in two weeks. That is.......insane. That is completely far beyond what anybody predicted. The US went into Iraq with some 300k forces. Imagine if we had lost 30,000 soldiers, that would have been unbelievable shock to the people and a massive disaster for our army. Imagine if that happened within two weeks of fighting. This is massive, catastrophic losses for Russia.

Now go, shoo, back to your cave.

So catastrophic that they lost.... one tenth of their stuff? Still having 90% is "running out of troops" or "losing significant equipment"? Catastrophic is what the USSR suffered in Barbarossa, losing tens of thousands of tanks and aircraft and millions captured and killed, well over half their pre-war strength. I understand this forum is cheerleading for the Ukrainians and thus Ukrainian propaganda is spread, but you shouldn't actually drink the Kool-Aid and believe that stuff is real.

How stupid are you?
Are you really comparing World War Two to a war fought in 2022? Why would you do something so silly? Germany invaded the Soviet Union with 3.8 million soldiers. Russia had some 2.5 million on the border, and 11,000 tanks. The scale is not remotely comparable! The nature of the conflict is not remotely comparable!

Russia invaded Ukraine two weeks ago, expecting to decapitate the government within a few days. Instead, they have lost 10% of their army, and the other 90% is facing logistical and supply nightmares. Since then, Ukraine's military capacity has only increased on the land.

Be smarter (or for you I guess, just be not so stupid).

The article I quoted, and your choice of words ("massive, catastrophic losses") would have readers believe that the Russian army is nearly finished and on the brink of defeat. That describes the USSR in October 1941 that had lost well over half of its strength and was facing the Wehrmacht advancing on Moscow, not the Russian army today that lost 10% of its strength, holds substantial parts of Ukraine, and is within striking distance of Ukraine's capital and second largest city. Let's say in the next 2-3 weeks the Russians capture Kiev and Kharkov and lose another 20% of their forces. Who would be winning the war at that point? Clearly Russia, despite suffering double the "catastrophic losses".

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/RMac18/status/1501705096723591171

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/ddanpereira/status/1501695726845415429

[pppolitics]

https://twitter.com/cliffordlevy/status/1501726362490519553

ISTANBUL — When President Vladimir V. Putin launched his invasion two weeks ago, he said a primary goal was the “denazification” of Ukraine. He referred to the Ukrainian government as a “gang of drug addicts and neo-Nazis,” making it clear that his aim was to topple it.

But in recent days, the language has shifted, with the Kremlin signaling that Mr. Putin is no longer bent on regime change in Kyiv. It is a subtle shift, and it may be a head-fake; but it is prompting officials who have scrambled to mediate to believe that Mr. Putin may be seeking a negotiated way out of a war that has become a much bloodier slog than he expected.

On Thursday, Foreign Minister Sergey V. Lavrov of Russia is expected to meet his Ukrainian counterpart, Dmytro Kuleba, in Turkey, in the highest-level talks between the two countries since the war began on Feb. 24. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan of Turkey, whose top diplomat has held a total of 10 calls with Mr. Lavrov and Mr. Kuleba since the start of the war, said on Wednesday that the meeting could “crack the door open to a permanent cease-fire.”

Leading up to the meeting, both sides have softened their public positions, though they remain far apart. Russia has narrowed its demands to focus on Ukrainian “neutrality” and the status of its Russian-occupied regions, and declared on Wednesday that Russia was not seeking to “overthrow” Ukraine’s government. President Volodymyr Zelensky of Ukraine on Tuesday suggested he was open to revising Ukraine’s constitutionally enshrined aspiration to join NATO, and even to a compromise over the status of Ukrainian territory now controlled by Russia.

“The changes are noticeable,” Ivan Timofeev, the director of programs at the government-funded Russian International Affairs Council, said of the evolution in Russia’s negotiating position. “This position has become more realistic.”

The Kremlin’s position now, according to comments this week by its spokesman, Dmitri S. Peskov, is that Ukraine must recognize Russian sovereignty over Crimea and the independence of the Russian-backed, separatist “people’s republics” in the country’s east and enshrine a status of neutrality in its constitution. That is still far from what Mr. Zelensky has said he would be willing to accept — and it could also puncture Mr. Putin’s strongman image at home, opening him up to criticism that he waged an enormous war for limited gain.

[...]

[Okay, maybe Mike Johnson is a competent parliamentarian.]

Let's say in the next 2-3 weeks the Russians capture Kiev and Kharkov and lose another 20% of their forces. Who would be winning the war at that point?

Your doctor, since you would have an erection lasting longer than four hours and would give him or her a story to tell at dinner parties for the rest of his or her career.

[Person Man]

Let's say in the next 2-3 weeks the Russians capture Kiev and Kharkov and lose another 20% of their forces. Who would be winning the war at that point?

Your doctor, since you would have an erection lasting longer than four hours and would give him or her a story to tell at dinner parties for the rest of his or her career.

Don’t they have a needle for that?

[emailking]

If the jets won't be that useful then it makes sense to minimize the chances of WW3. I'm just saying, the criticism of it in this thread is somewhat baffling to me. I'm surprised we've been helping as much as we have given the risk.

I've grown extremely tired of this lame "escalation" argument with respect to fighter jets. It's lazy and makes zero sense. It exudes weakness and only encourages Putin.

I don't know if it would escalate it or not. But the military that this is a bad idea. They're the ones who have the experts looking at this and have intelligence we're not privy to. It might make sense if you knew everything. Maybe not, there could be internal disagreement about this too.

"Minimizing the chance of WW3" implies you think that giving them jets would be escalation.

With respect to "the military said it's a bad idea", frankly Ukraine has said additional fighter jets would help them immensely and allow them to destroy Russian artillery and armor which are slaughtering civilians. Our military predicted Kyiv would fall in 2 days, so I put much more stock in what the Ukranian military on the ground says as opposed to ours. Also I can't fathom a reason why giving the Ukranians more air power would not be a good idea or would be ineffective given how much of a fight they've put up already with such a small air force. I don't see how more fighter jets = bad. That makes no sense and smells like a gaslighting talking point from bureaucrats.

I saw it as cost benefit analysis. Obviously it will help some, but it has to be balanced against the risk. I think it will escalate is not the same as I know it will escalate.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Tensions are running high in this thread.  Can we please leave the personal insults out of it?

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

I'm actually pretty sure Ukraine has a numerical advantage now, when you throw in the foreign volunteers, their paramilitaries and armed civilians and Russian casualties plus Russian forces that are basically worthless now and just sitting in freezing unfueled convoys. Ukraine's total forces are probably around 300k, with Russia being under 200k, and that's not even taking into account the full number of those forces that are completely useless at this time.

[certified hummus supporter 🇵🇸🤝🇺🇸🤝🇺🇦]

There's no way on God's green Earth that the Russians will be able defeat a country with people willing to defuse a 500 kilogram unexploded bomb during active fighting (shelling is heard in the background) wearing no protection beyond a police vest, using only a pair of gardening gloves and a water bottle.

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1501654247619842049

Does this mean that Ukraine is the Florida of Europe?

I honestly expected the European Florida to be somewhere in the Balkans tbh

[NOVA Green]

Cyberattack hitting Ukraine per NYT 13 minutes ago...

A major internet provider in Ukraine, Triolan, said it was under attack and was suspending service.

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/03/09/world/ukraine-russia-war

[GeorgiaModerate]

There's no way on God's green Earth that the Russians will be able defeat a country with people willing to defuse a 500 kilogram unexploded bomb during active fighting (shelling is heard in the background) wearing no protection beyond a police vest, using only a pair of gardening gloves and a water bottle.

https://twitter.com/COUPSURE/status/1501654247619842049

Does this mean that Ukraine is the Florida of Europe?

I honestly expected the European Florida to be somewhere in the Balkans tbh

No, that was pre-breakup Yugoslavia.  For documentation, I submit the book Esprit de Corps by Lawrence Durrell (author of the famous "Alexandria Quartet"), a set of (hilarious) stories based on his experiences in the British diplomatic corps there.

[NOVA Green]

Maybe some more Turkish drones arriving on the frontlines waiting for ripe targets?

https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1501678104602894343

[Storr]

Not even the best propaganda can hide that amount of casualties. In 1994-95, Russian opinion quickly turned against the war in Chechnya. I wonder if there's a point where Russian public opinion will turn against the war due to continued casualties on this scale. Maybe if Russian progress stalls, leaving no hope of victory on the horizon?

Edit: According to wikipedia the highest estimation of Russian military deaths in the First Chechen War, by the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers of Russia, is 14,000. The official Kremlin number is 3,826 killed and 1,906 "missing". Let's conservatively use 2,500 killed per week (5,000 killed so far): Russia will reach more than 15,000 dead in six weeks of fighting. The First Chechen War lasted 20 months...
https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1501744637379235842?s=20&t=BysA028t25U...

[NOVA Green]

Russia is now looking at violating Global Patent Protections....

Are they getting desperate, since that would give an easy out for targeting Chinese companies which presumably would replace a supply-chain from elsewhere and then be targeted for Global Sanctions in what is a relatively small Global Market?

Russia allows patent theft from anyone in ‘unfriendly’ countries

Russia has effectively legalized patent theft from anyone affiliated with countries “unfriendly” to it, declaring that unauthorized use will not be compensated.

The decree, issued this week, illustrates the economic war waged around Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as the West levies sanctions and pulls away from Russia’s huge oil and gas industry. Russian officials have also raised the possibility of lifting restrictions on some trademarks, according to state media, which could allow continued use of brands such as McDonald’s that are withdrawing from Russia in droves.

The effect of losing patent protections will vary by company, experts say, depending on whether they have a valuable patent in Russia. The U.S. government has long warned of intellectual property rights violations in the country; last year Russia was among nine nations on a “priority watch list” for alleged failures to protect intellectual property. Now Russian entities could not be sued for damages if they use certain patents without permission.

The patent decree and any further lifting of intellectual property protections could affect Western investment in Russia well beyond any de-escalation of the war in Ukraine, said Josh Gerben, an intellectual property lawyer in Washington. Firms that already saw risks in Russian business would have more reason to worry.

...

Russia’s decree removes protections for patent holders who are registered in hostile countries, do business in them or hold their nationality.

The Kremlin has not issued any decree lifting protections on trademarks. But Russia’s Ministry of Economic Development said last week that authorities are considering “removing restrictions on the use of intellectual property contained in certain goods whose supply to Russia is restricted,” according to Russian state news outlet Tass, and that potential measures could affect inventions, computer programs and trademarks.

https://www.washingtonpost.com/world/2022/03/09/russia-ukraine-war-news-putin-live-updates/#link-OV7JERJA55DDPDXKUTEQF3B4KY

[NOVA Green]

Not even the best propaganda can hide that amount of casualties. In 1994-95, Russian opinion quickly turned against the war in Chechnya. I wonder if there's a point where Russian public opinion will turn against the war due to continued casualties on this scale. Maybe if Russian progress stalls, leaving no hope of victory on the horizon?

Edit: According to wikipedia the highest estimation of Russian military deaths in the First Chechen War, by the Committee of Soldiers' Mothers of Russia, is 14,000. The official Kremlin number is 3,826 killed and 1,906 "missing". Let's conservatively use 2,500 killed per week (5,000 killed so far): Russia will reach more than 15,000 dead in six weeks of fighting. The First Chechen War lasted 20 months...
https://twitter.com/NotWoofers/status/1501744637379235842?s=20&t=BysA028t25U...

You have some strong points there, but from my recollection it took a bit longer for the war casualties in Afghanistan to really trickle through (Without even talking about the epidemic of Heroin / Opiates addiction to really hit home in the USSR.

Tons of similarities between the Soviet War in Afghanistan and US War in Vietnam all around.

Agreed however, despite the "Iron Wall" and Russian domestic propaganda suppression of any news regarding the War, information will trickle through likely sooner rather than later.

Hopefully sooner rather than later.

[NOVA Green]

Economic Troubles Continue to Mount for Russia per WSJ 1 Hour Ago... Now Hitting the Mineral Industry

Rio Tinto Says It Will Sever Commercial Ties With Russian Businesses

Rio Tinto PLC, the world's second-largest miner by market value, said it will cut commercial ties with Russia, joining a growing list of Western businesses that are pulling away from the country following its invasion of Ukraine.

“Rio Tinto is in the process of terminating all commercial relationships it has with any Russian business," the company said Thursday.

Rio Tinto buys fuel and other products from Russia for operations including its Oyu Tolgoi copper mine in Mongolia.

It also controls a large alumina refinery in Australia's Queensland state in which Russia's United Co. Rusal owns a 20% stake. The company is reviewing options for that partnership, a person familiar with the matter said.

Other resources companies, including rival Glencore PLC, have been reevaluating their exposure to Russian investments, suppliers and customers.

Earlier Thursday, Australia-listed Worley Ltd., a global engineering contractor, said it had begun to withdraw its services in Russia and wouldn't enter any new contracts.

Worley Chief Executive Chris Ashton last month told The Wall Street Journal that while the company has historically worked on liquified natural gas projects in Russia, contracts there didn't account for a material part of Worley's revenue.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-09/card/rio-tinto-says-it-will-sever-commercial-ties-with-russian-businesses-g4sgekUpdjRjeVJYPUmj

[NOVA Green]

Heavy Equipment Companies Pull out of Russia per BBC a couple hours ago:


I had previously reported to production halted in the Russian Flagship auto company Lada earlier today....

https://talkelections.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=469771.msg8515178#msg8515178


Something pretty wrong when Russia can no longer manufacture cars or tractors without external assistance....

Heavy equipment behemoths Caterpillar and John Deere are suspending their work with Russian partners.

Caterpillar said operations at its Russian-based manufacturing facilities had "become increasingly challenging, including supply chain disruptions and sanctions".

Meanwhile, John Deere said its machines would no longer be shipped to either Russia or Belarus, which has supported the invasion of Ukraine.

Both companies said they would donate to humanitarian relief efforts.

Other major manufacturers such as Komatsu, Hitachi and JCB have already halted exports to Russia.

https://www.bbc.com/news/live/world-europe-60685883

John Deere pulls out of Russia:

Deere Stops Shipping Equipment to Russia and Belarus

Deere & Co. has suspended shipments of its farm and construction equipment to Russia and Belarus in the wake of Russia’s attack on Ukraine, the company said.

The Moline, Ill.,-based company said it halted shipments to Russia two weeks ago and then subsequently to Belarus, which has been used as a staging area for Russia’s military push into Ukraine.

Deere, the world’s biggest seller of farm machinery by sales, operates two plants in Russia. A plant in Orenburg produces tillage and seed planting equipment, while another in Domodedovo is used as a parts distribution center. The company described operations at these plants as “day-to-day.”

Deere has a sales operation but no plants in Ukraine, which is a major producer of wheat. Russia and Ukraine account for about 3% of Deere’s annual sales, according to a research note from JP Morgan.

https://www.wsj.com/livecoverage/russia-ukraine-latest-news-2022-03-09/card/deere-stops-shipping-equipment-to-russia-and-belarus-nUjUl8EnIcK7fVSN1kqM

[NOVA Green]

Oryx--- 12 Minutes ago.

Date and location not yet confirmed, but he's very conservative and vets footage before posting, so looks like something recent and not something he has seen before, so likely will either verify Ukrainian reporting over the past couple days, or is something brand new not yet reported by Ukrainian Gvt sources....


https://twitter.com/oryxspioenkop/status/1501821926456672258

[Storr]

It seems the Russians are running out of tanks in their (desperate?) attempt to encircle Kyiv. The T-72A w/ radiation lining started production in 1984

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1501820753905344514?s=20&t=n7L5FZWFMUZIPu...

https://twitter.com/RALee85/status/1501827314711244806?s=20&t=n7L5FZWFMUZIPu...

[GoTfan]

Western intelligence is reportedly saying that there will by a massive attack on Kyiv no later than Sunday. Sounds like the Russians are going all-out this time.

[CumbrianLefty]

Western intelligence is reportedly saying that there will by a massive attack on Kyiv no later than Sunday. Sounds like the Russians are going all-out this time.

Yes, but that's been "about to happen" several times already. They can't just wish it into being.

[GoTfan]

Western intelligence is reportedly saying that there will by a massive attack on Kyiv no later than Sunday. Sounds like the Russians are going all-out this time.

Yes, but that's been "about to happen" several times already. They can't just wish it into being.

Yesterday they were saying it would happen anywhere beteween 24-96 hours. The Russians are setting up supply bases and forward headquarters, usually the precursor to a large attack.

[Farmlands]

The US has recently reiterated its stance of being staunchly opposed to Poland's plan to send fighter jets to Ukraine.

Meanwhile, Russia is proceeding with its civilian shelling and war crimes, this time by bombing a maternity ward and children's hospital in Mariupol, killing three, including a minor: https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-60675599.

Biden and Stoltenberg should at the very least delineate some red lines, instead of repeatedly and sternly insisting that no matter what, NATO won't even give Ukraine some jets, allowing Putin full free reign here.

[dead0man]

if he puts up a red line, he will feel pressured to do something when Russia crosses it and he doesn't want to do anything.  Plus, people (hawks and doves) will question why that is the red line.  A POTUS with a spine would do it, but, that's not what we have.