Virginia Mega Thread: The Youngkin Administration

[GALeftist]

Yeah, I'm sure the VAGOP will put up a sensible moderate who wins back NOVA. Come on now, it's Virginia, the Democrat is favored off the bat, no matter who it is.

Almost certain it will be TMac though.

[GALeftist]

If Carter wins the primary somehow, he's the governor. It's not 2004 anymore, y'all, and that's even ignoring the fact that the VAGOP candidate will be some nutjob who makes Carter look moderate.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/Elections_Daily/status/1385435777400807426

VAGOP moment

[GALeftist]

This is absolutely gross. I want loudon county school officials to be jailed if true

https://mobile.twitter.com/lukerosiak/status/1447695763476209664


I hope loudon school district officials are so f’in scared right now.

To be real this story seems more than a little sketchy to me. The dude in the tweet, Luke Rosiak, is kind of known for stories which are bogus even by Daily Caller standards (e.g. the theories that Imran Awan was a Pakistani spy whose espionage was sanctioned by House Democrats). The article also paints the high school's administration as almost cartoonishly evil, which seems somewhat suspicious. The tweet also alleges that the alleged perpetrator was gender fluid, but I found this somewhat strange because the only information I could find about that was that the perpetrator was allegedly wearing a skirt. Further, the lawyer in the article claims that the May assault had the same perpetrator as an assault this month which was reported in the mainstream media, but those reports don't mention the perpetrator being gender neutral at all. IDK, maybe the article has more conclusive information after the paywall, and I'm not ruling out its being true necessarily, but I'll wait until it's corroborated.

[GALeftist]

Some of y'all really have got to chill out.

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/TheGoodLiars/status/1455243036795998212

Videos like this are always dumb.  Like, do you think that if they found a Youngkin voter who could actually articulate what CRT is they would be plastering his facae on social media trying to get him to go viral?  lol

No such voter exists. CRT is still a completely manufactured outrage which is sure as hell not being taught in Loudoun County public schools, let alone wherever this dude lives.

[GALeftist]

Anecdotal turnout reports 🥴

[GALeftist]

Presented without comment:
https://twitter.com/YoungKimCA/status/1455528329235374086

DAMN, calling for McAuliffe, this is over now. How many more races is she going to cost us?

Youngkin wins: Young Kim is the first unbeatable titan to transfer her powers, Biden+10 seats safe R in 2022
Youngkin loses: Young Kim endorsement is the kiss of death, the memes were right, House tilt D in 2022 depending on the number of kiss of death endorsements she gives

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/MattEMiller/status/1455607491358769153?s=20

To be clear, I think Youngkin could very well win/people are becoming very bullish on TMac for poor reasons (though for some I think it might be counterbalancing an existing undue bullishness on Youngkin for equally poor reasons), but something is weird with that site. Not sure what "ballots cast" means but there is simply no way that only 1277 ballots were cast in North Beach in 2020 (according to DRA it cast 2507 votes for Senator in 2018) nor any way it was Trump+48 (again according to DRA it was Stewart+9 and Trump+25 in 2016). Is this referring to exclusively EDay votes?

[GALeftist]

https://twitter.com/MattEMiller/status/1455607491358769153?s=20

To be clear, I think Youngkin could very well win/people are becoming very bullish on TMac for poor reasons (though for some I think it might be counterbalancing an existing undue bullishness on Youngkin for equally poor reasons), but something is weird with that site. Not sure what "ballots cast" means but there is simply no way that only 1277 ballots were cast in North Beach in 2020 (according to DRA it cast 2507 votes for Senator in 2018) nor any way it was Trump+48 (again according to DRA it was Stewart+9 and Trump+25 in 2016).

It seems as if he is comparing to ED votes in 2020.

I see. Well, in that case, this site would seem to indicate wither that A. EDay votes are now basically the same as they were in 2020, meaning that with mail-ins turnout has now outstripped 2020 in this precinct (seems implausible), or (more likely in my view) B. that for some reason this site counts all votes for 2021 but just EDay for 2020.

[GALeftist]

Literally every tweet ITT basically just says "wow, turnout is pretty high, right, guys?"

Unless your theory for how the election was going to go involved turnout cratering in some part of Virginia, nothing's really changed. 2 hours and change till polls close and we get some more meaningful data.

[GALeftist]

I can confidently project that these early exit polls are going to be wrong in some significant way. Stop paying attention to them.

[GALeftist]

Also, why on earth are outlets releasing exit polls prior to polls closing? Not a good move, guys

[GALeftist]

I didn't think I was going to have to drink to deal with the outcome of this election. I still don't, even if Youngkin romps, but I might just need to drink to deal with other people dealing with this election.

[GALeftist]

Hey guys I'm back what'd I miss

[GALeftist]

OK, I'll wait to do my little postmortem until after everyone else has, but here are some preliminary thoughts:

- "Trump voters won't show up without Trump on the ticket" – probably false
- "Suburbanites are locked in for the Democrats" – probably false
- We should stop choosing candidates based on electability, or rather stop assuming we know who is electable. I think if the primary had been less of a coronation the eventual nominee (whoever it was) wouldn't have taken this race for granted the way TMac did.
- I remember there had been some talk about Youngkin outrunning the rest of the ticket; in other words, the theory was that a Youngkin win would show more about his popularity/TMac's unpopularity than Virginia as a whole. Doesn't seem to be the case; all the Republicans are doing pretty similarly
- With that in mind, I think the Democrats really need to engage more with Biden's unpopularity; it's clearly buoying Republicans

[GALeftist]

Oh! Forgot to mention. Something needs to be done about the Lincoln Project.

[GALeftist]

Who was that one PA poster who said he'd leave for the year if Ciattarelli won? This could be a SirWoodbury moment.

Murphy is still going to win, it's just going to be narrower than had been thought.

[GALeftist]

My Braves are about to make this a perfect night

The Braves, at least, we can agree on.

[GALeftist]

Waiting for Youngkin vs McAuliffe 2025 rematch predictions

One of the very few good things about tonight in Virginia is that now we can count on Youngkin getting out forever in 2025 due to term limits. He could run for Senate in 2026 I guess but I kind of suspect the state will be too left to elect him by that point.

[GALeftist]

I tried to tell people, but some wouldn't listen:

Contrary to the incorrect analysis directly above me, Virginia has grown considerably and that's most of why Virginia has turned blue.  Particularly Northern Virginia, where Loudoun county is one of the 5 or so fastest growing counties in the country, the growth has been enormous.  However, Biden would still likely win because of suburban trends outside of the substantial growth.  It would be much closer however, without this growth.  The difference between a 3 or 4 point race and a 12 or 13 point race.  The growth has been particularly troubling for Republicans because their parts of the state have been shrinking and their voters (even from areas like NoVa) have been moving further south.  Hope that clears up the misinformation above.

If you want to be wrong, you can at least quote me. I'll see your responses regardless.

...

With regard to turnout versus persuasion over the past 16 years, sheer demographic growth being responsible for the bulk of D gains is mathematically impossible. After you deduct the share of net population growth that is children (40%) and non-citizens (6%), you're barely left with enough to explain the raw vote change between 2004 & 2016 - and that's assuming practically every single person is voting and is voting Democratic. That also fails to account for the Democratic voters the state has lost over time to the Republicans.

The gist is this: you need roughly 6 people to move into a state like Virginia to net 1 Democratic vote (margin). Based on VA's 15-year growth (including minors becoming adults, in-migration and out-migration), Democrats have netted 186,000 votes. The margin in VA shifted by 474,000 between 2004 & 2016. Demography is responsible for 40% of the net D margin shift; voters flipping are responsible for 60%. As far as people (not votes) go - since defections are worth twice as much margin-wise - the defectors comprise a bit less than 45% of those who have contributed to the shift.

Fun fact: add that 186k from pure demographic shift to the 2004 presidential result, and you get:

Bush 50.7%
Kerry 48.4%

And what do you know?



The net result here is that Democrats lost the equivalent of every persuadable vote they've earned since 2004 in this race.

On the bright side, I guess we now know what the D floor in Virginia is!

[GALeftist]

Blue state red governors are almost always either enormously popular or enormously unpopular. I have a feeling Youngkin is going to be the latter of the two by the end of his term.

[GALeftist]

Nice! Glad to see the DINOs getting culled. Go run in swing districts, if you must be in politics; quit camping out in Safe D seats.

[GALeftist]

Gibson reportedly violated Chaturbate’s terms and conditions by soliciting tips in order to perform specific sex acts and could be seen on video telling viewers that she was raising money for a "good cause."

https://www.foxnews.com/politics/virginia-democrat-candidate-posted-sex-acts-husband-online-soliciting-tips-report

She made these videos after announcing her campaign. I think if you really wanted to attack on this issue I would go down this angle that she was attempting to fundraise for her campaign by doing this. Not illegal but still lol.

The point about violating Chaturbate's terms and conditions is obviously asinine though. The terms and conditions prevent chatters from requesting acts in exchange for tips, not performers from requesting tips in exchange for acts; that's, like, the whole business model.

Anyway, who cares. Women can have hobbies.

[GALeftist]

https://www.dailywire.com/news/virginia-democrat-who-raised-money-by-selling-sex-acts-could-be-charged-with-prostitution-lawyers-say
Seems like the GOP operator was basically doing media bait on liberal publications. He could have given it to say the dailywire first but seems he gave it to the AP who not only refused to report it but actually tipped Gibson off.  Seems the WaPo did decide to report it.

Lawyers probably nixed it. Don't know why WaPo decided to run the story